The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
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Heroic Shrimp
Active member
Deebo said:
Okay, so we're stocking up on Canadians again, it seems.
bustaheims
Well-known member
Deebo said:
Saunders is a pretty good pick up. Likely means Melky isn't coming back, though.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
bustaheims said:
Yep:
L K
Well-known member
I'm not impressed. Saunders is a decent player but he's injury prone and he's a downgrade on Melky overall. A slightly better defender but an inferior offensive player.
It opens up a rotation spot for Sanchez, but I'm not really thrilled with the prospect of a rotation of Dickey-Buerhle-Stroman-Hutchinson-Sanchez. It's a lot of question marks between the age of RA and Mark and the inexperience of Stroman-Hutchinson-Sanchez. This is a small window the have with this team still and they really need to capitalize now.
It opens up a rotation spot for Sanchez, but I'm not really thrilled with the prospect of a rotation of Dickey-Buerhle-Stroman-Hutchinson-Sanchez. It's a lot of question marks between the age of RA and Mark and the inexperience of Stroman-Hutchinson-Sanchez. This is a small window the have with this team still and they really need to capitalize now.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
L K said:
Obviously Melky had tumour issue so factor that in, but Cabrera is also going on 31 in August. And as Wilner noted, Melky's OPS last season was .808 to Saunders' .791 playing in a much friendlier hitters park.
Consider his stats in and out of Safeco, they see a positive uptick:
Even if you accept that Melky is a better offensive player it doesn't appear that it is by much. Last season Melky had a higher WAR by 0.2.
It's even better if they can use the $$ to improve the team elsewhere.
bustaheims
Well-known member
L K said:
I agree that he's a bit of a downgrade on Melky, but, I'm not sure it's a significant one. As for the rotation, I'm confident the Jays will add another starter before the season. It probably won't be one of the big names of the market, but, another reliable middle of the rotation type arm. I also wouldn't be surprised if they take a flyer on someone like Ogando or Beachy.
bustaheims
Well-known member
It should also be mentioned that this move takes about $4M off the Jays current payroll.
L K said:
that's assuming that Melky was ever a realistic option. Let's be honest, did anyone ever truly believe he was ever going to re-sign with the jays? I can tell you that I wasn't comfortable having him on a 4-5 year contract - and clearly, if he wanted to stay, he could have. I'm sure whatever the jays offered him was more than what he got over the last 2 years.
I have to side with AA on this one. He took action instead of sitting back and being forced to take action once Melky signed somewhere else.
Andy007
Active member
Potvin29 said:
Saunders played half a season last year; you can't compare skewed metrics.
Also, Saunders can't stay healthy and isn't a great fielder (not that Melky is, mind you). The Jays outfield is terrible right now and they have a worse rotation that has to now take pitcher(s) from what was a barely average bullpen.
They did save a nice chunk of $; however, so hopefully that goes into finding some quality rotation/bullpen help. An actual CF would be nice as well.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Andy007 said:
Wouldn't the fact he had that WAR in half a season be a good thing?
To be clear: Saunders absolutely has had some injury issues. He hasn?t proven himself to be durable, and if he had, he?d still be a Mariner. Last year he played the equivalent of half a season, down from a career-high 139 games in 2012. But for one thing, Saunders was more valuable in his partial season than Happ was in his full season. And for another, it can be hard to distinguish between fragility and bad luck. Nelson Cruz was fragile until he became durable. A year ago we were talking about Jacoby Ellsbury?s injury-proneness, and then he played in 149 games. The Mariners know some things about Saunders other teams don?t, but if you want to think about it mathematically, injury-proneness seems like the sort of skill that would take an awful long time to stabilize. Saunders is young, and if there were issues with his work ethic, say, that?s the kind of thing that can change.
Saunders is a fine defender in a corner. Over the last three years, he?s posted a 109 wRC+, and last year he came in at 126. Again, over three years, on a per-600-PA basis Saunders has averaged 2.5 WAR. That?s tied with Melky Cabrera and it?s just above Michael Cuddyer and one Nelson Cruz. He has a long swing that can make him vulnerable, especially against lefties, but he also has power potential that exceeds what he?s put up on his player page. The Blue Jays aren?t getting a star. That ship has presumably sailed. But Saunders is average or a little better, and he?s under control two more years. This year he?s projected to make $2.9 million.
And Happ is projected to make $6.7 million. That?s $6.7 million in Happ?s last year of team control. Statistically, Happ is a little worse than Saunders. He?s older than Saunders, he?s more expensive than Saunders, and he?s under control for less time than Saunders. In almost every way, the Mariners draw the short straw.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mariners-get-depth-blue-jays-get-better/
bustaheims
Well-known member
Andy007 said:
He's a poor defensive CF and a rather ordinary defensive LF, but, once Seattle moved him to RF, his defensive metrics vastly improved - to the point where he was pretty good. It's conceivable he could translate some of that ability to LF in the future. So, while he may not be a great fielder, as long as he's not in CF, he's not a poor one, either.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
And I don't see how the rotation is worse right now. Happ wasn't very valuable. I think a full season of Stroman can make up for him.
bustaheims
Well-known member
Potvin29 said:
Yeah. Happ is a decidedly ordinary starting pitcher. Not hard to replace, at all - and likely at much better value than the $6.7M he's set to earn in 2015.
Andy007
Active member
Potvin29 said:
Estrada will be torched in the rotation. Norris isn't near ready. Sanchez is probably better suited to bullpen for now.
Happ was actually quite good last year after having a big jump in velocity (Cabrera program?).
Stroman isn't going to exceed what he did last year and Buerhle will surely be worse.
Bullpen is awful, especially with one of the aforementioned pitchers moving to the roation.
This is all moot if AA uses the $ saved to get rotation/bullpen help. But I really don't see this as being as great a deal as everyone seems to think it is.
Saunders had a great 250 at bats last year. By that token one could argue that Juan Francisco will be worth more than Ortiz.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Andy007 said:
Happ was worth what, 1.3 wins last season? Stroman's projected to be worth 3.3 for next season: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&players=0&sort=18,d
I don't understand your Francisco/Ortiz thing. Saunders' WAR is what it was, according to the metrics he was worth 1.9 wins in 78 games. I have no idea where you're getting that that means Francisco could be worth as much as Ortiz.
Most people think open rotation spot will be Sanchez' barring another move. Russell Martin should also be valuable in helping the team's staff.
But sure, worst possible case scenario could always happen.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Andy007 said:
Where is it being portrayed as a giant coup? Seems to me the general reaction is that AA dealt a back of the rotation pitcher for a younger, cheaper, better OF and hopefully freed up money to improve elsewhere rather than be spent on Cabrera until he's 36.
bustaheims
Well-known member
Andy007 said:
Saunders is +2 WAR player. Has been 2 of the last 3 seasons. And comes in at a shade under $3M for the season. Last season was the first time since 2009 that Happ was at least a full +1 WAR pitcher, and is set to earn $6.7M this season. They traded an entirely average back of the rotation arm for a slightly above average OF. It's a win for the Jays. Maybe not a huge one, but, still a win.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
bustaheims said:
And Saunders did benefit from a higher BABIP, but he likely could also benefit from getting out of Safeco. As Andrew Stoeten's wrote though, the value to the Jays is as much budgetary as anything - Saunders could be earning as much as $12 million less than Cabrera this season.
So while it's no guarantee that Saunders is better or as good next season as Melky (or healthy) if they use the available money elsewhere that they wouldn't have done if they signed Melky, it could end up being significant.
And even if they don't I don't see the difference in the two being very significant.