I know: a five year deal for a 32 year old catcher is what passes for a top-three bargain these days? By the end of the deal, Martin probably won?t be a catcher anymore, even if the crowd is right about the length of the deal he ends up taking. This contract is almost certainly going to result in some dead money in the last year or two of the contract, so for it to be a bargain, Martin is going to have to produce significantly more than $15 million per year worth of value up front.
And I think he very well might. For one, his plate discipline isn?t going anywhere, so even if his power goes away, he?s got a decently high offensive floor, as declining down to the level of Ryan Hanigan wouldn?t make Martin useless. And Martin doesn?t even have to hit for that much power to be a very good player; his career ISO is only .141, and that?s been enough to help him post a 106 wRC+. Martin looks like a pretty good bet to be something like a league average hitter for the next few years, and a catcher who can hit at league average levels is pretty valuable.
Especially because we?re not capturing all of his defensive value. Per StatCorner, Martin?s value by framing runs, by season since 2007: +25, +31, +23, +10, +29, +24, +17, +12. Even if we don?t believe that the actual value of these runs is as high as the current estimates ? I?m in that camp ? and cut these values in half, Martin looks like about a +1 win framer, and this is another skill that has been show to age well. Steamer?s projection for Martin?s 2015 performance has him worth +3.6 WAR per 450 plate appearances, and that?s without any framing value; include it in the calculation, and Martin might just be the best free agent on the market this winter.
Of course, I made a very similar argument about McCann last year, and that didn?t work out so well in year one. But at $15 million per year for four or five years, Martin seems like a very reasonable bet to me, at least, relative to the other bets that free agency offers.
