The Defensive Logjam
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
Zee said:
I wouldn't be entirely surprised. I mean there's a large percentage of teams that won't be able to use a roster spot on him and give him the opportunity he'll need to build his game back up a little to a point where he'll actually be useful this season. We'll see soon enough I guess.
dekedastardly
Member
So when do we think Marchenko might get a chance? With as porous as the defense is, does the slow footed Polak get a turn to sit a couple out?
herman
Well-known member
How to Fix the Leafs Defense
In broad strokes, the way to do this is simple: Let the team grow and develop. Our current Defense core is still very young both in age and in terms of games played. The parts that are not young are not here for the long haul anyway, as they're designated d-zone starts/PK sponges.
Gardiner is on his second year with a coach that actually trusts him and lets him play to his strengths. Rielly is on his first season with a full-time competent partner while playing his strong side. Zaitsev is new to the NHL, but has quietly, and steadily started to contribute beyond playing a sound game on the top pairing. Carrick has a huge brain for the game, and he's starting to accrue the NHL-level experience that all defensemen require. Marincin and Marchenko are basically the same type of player: big, mobile, defense-first, not overly physical (and therefore usually in position), but they're also still at the front edge of their respective learning curves.
The addition by subtraction of Hunwick and Polak will have a positive effect on general shot metrics, though we might suffer slightly on the penalty kill. Babcock really likes having a sacrificial pairing (and 4th line to submarine), and Marincin/Marchenko might do the trick.
In broad strokes, the way to do this is simple: Let the team grow and develop. Our current Defense core is still very young both in age and in terms of games played. The parts that are not young are not here for the long haul anyway, as they're designated d-zone starts/PK sponges.
Gardiner is on his second year with a coach that actually trusts him and lets him play to his strengths. Rielly is on his first season with a full-time competent partner while playing his strong side. Zaitsev is new to the NHL, but has quietly, and steadily started to contribute beyond playing a sound game on the top pairing. Carrick has a huge brain for the game, and he's starting to accrue the NHL-level experience that all defensemen require. Marincin and Marchenko are basically the same type of player: big, mobile, defense-first, not overly physical (and therefore usually in position), but they're also still at the front edge of their respective learning curves.
The addition by subtraction of Hunwick and Polak will have a positive effect on general shot metrics, though we might suffer slightly on the penalty kill. Babcock really likes having a sacrificial pairing (and 4th line to submarine), and Marincin/Marchenko might do the trick.
ZBBM
Active member
Interesting article. The takeaways are (1) that Rielly is an enigma and, perhaps, a disappointment, except that (2) he could still blossom with the right partner.
http://www.tsn.ca/talent/rielly-and-the-future-of-the-leafs-defence-1.676421
http://www.tsn.ca/talent/rielly-and-the-future-of-the-leafs-defence-1.676421
herman
Well-known member
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
My position on Rielly remains the same: wait and see.
It's his first season playing on his strong side with a stable partner that's not an anchor (and not Gardiner). He had a lost D-0 season to that leg injury, and the bulk of his development was under the Carlyle system. Of course his shot suppression is poor.
This season, his shot suppression is trending towards average, without a dip in offense (even though he is playing fewer offensive/PP minutes). He has a stable partner who is playing his first year in the NHL. His shot metrics for are similar to Gardiner currently, but he is 4 years younger. He's still 22 games shy of the 300 games played mark.
If we had to redo the 2012 draft again, knowing what we know now, it's not like I would choose too differently (arguments to be made for Lindholm and Trouba, but they've developed in arguably stronger systems).
Coco-puffs
New member
An interesting look at WOWY and Rielly:
Player_Name TOI GF GA GF60 GA60 GF% Sh% Sv% PDO CF CA CF60 CA60 CF% NZFO DZFO OZFO NZFO% DZFO% OZFO% OZone%
Together 83:26 0 8 0.00 5.75 0.0 0.00 84.31 84.3 85 82 61.13 58.97 50.9 36 30 26 39.1 32.6 28.3 46.4
MORGAN RIELLY* 817:27 38 38 2.79 2.79 50.0 8.46 91.16 99.6 829 820 60.85 60.19 50.3 361 315 274 38.0 33.2 28.8 46.5
JHONAS ENROTH* 132:42 4 9 1.81 4.07 30.8 7.02 85.71 92.7 124 110 56.07 49.74 53.0 35 37 45 29.9 31.6 38.5 54.9
Not sure if the formatting shows up well enough, but: In games without Enroth, Rielly has an even GF% (2.79 GF60 & GA60), and a decent SV% (91.16) backing him up. With Enroth, 8 GA on 82 shot attempts. That's AWFUL.
I also took a look at our centermen and Rielly. Numbers that stick out:
Matthews & Rielly: 219 min GF60 3.00 GA60 2.73 PDO 95.9 CF60 68.74 CA60 50.73 CF% 57.5
Kadri & Rielly: 391 min GF60 1.91 GA60 2.91 PDO 96.8 CF60 61.94 CA60 59.95 CF% 50.8
Bozak & Rielly: 192 min GF60 3.12 GA60 4.67 PDO 95.8 CF60 64.2 CA60 57.35 CF% 52.8
Smith & Rielly: 80 min GF60 1.49 GA60 3.73 PDO 98.2 CF60 41.02 CA60 77.56 CF% 34.6
- Rielly has had some pretty shitty luck with everyone.. those PDO's can't be sustainable
- Rielly and Matthews is the best combination on the Leafs. Gardiner only has a 53% CF% with Matthews. Hunwick 50.5%.
- Rielly and Kadri together get the toughest assignments. Ok Shot Attempts, shitty luck (6% Sh%)
- Rielly and Bozak, despite good shot attempts is AWFUL in the goals against department.
- Rielly and Smith is an absolute tire fire.
Not surprisingly, a STILL young defenseman playing with an older rookie dman getting shitty defensive centers equals awful GA60.
Seriously, don't play Rielly with the Bozak or Smith lines and he's fine. He really helps drive the Matthews line offense, more than Gardiner does. Gardiner gets GF%: 54.5 and CF%: 54.4 with Bozak, with a sustainable PDO.
More on deployment:
Gardiner and Smith have ZERO goals against at 5 on 5 this season (also, Zero goals for, but less worrisome to me) and a 49.5% CF%. And that's with 110 mins together (30% of Smith's mins this season). Hunwick and Smith have an even GF% and a not so nice CF% of 46.4, but much better than with Rielly.
1. Kadri line should be with Rielly for the most part. Gardiner gets the remainder. (Those should be the toughest mins anyways.)
2. Matthews line should see more Rielly. Hunlack gets the rest (GF% 56.3%, PDO 100.0, CF% 50.5%)
3. Play Gardiner with the Bozak line alot. GF% of 54.4, PDO 100.4, CF% of 54.4.
4. Give Gardiner as much of Smiths ice-time as possible too. Let Hunlack take the rest of Smith's minutes.
Assuming approx 48 mins 5on5:
14-15 min Matthews: Rielly 7-8, Hunlack 6-7
14-15 mins Kadri: Rielly 11-12, Gardiner 3-4
12-13 mins Bozak: Gardiner 11-12, Hunlack 2
6 mins Smith: Gardiner 4-5, Hunlack 1-2
Rielly-Zaitsev 18-20
Gardiner-Carrick 18-20
Hunlack 9-10
Player_Name TOI GF GA GF60 GA60 GF% Sh% Sv% PDO CF CA CF60 CA60 CF% NZFO DZFO OZFO NZFO% DZFO% OZFO% OZone%
Together 83:26 0 8 0.00 5.75 0.0 0.00 84.31 84.3 85 82 61.13 58.97 50.9 36 30 26 39.1 32.6 28.3 46.4
MORGAN RIELLY* 817:27 38 38 2.79 2.79 50.0 8.46 91.16 99.6 829 820 60.85 60.19 50.3 361 315 274 38.0 33.2 28.8 46.5
JHONAS ENROTH* 132:42 4 9 1.81 4.07 30.8 7.02 85.71 92.7 124 110 56.07 49.74 53.0 35 37 45 29.9 31.6 38.5 54.9
Not sure if the formatting shows up well enough, but: In games without Enroth, Rielly has an even GF% (2.79 GF60 & GA60), and a decent SV% (91.16) backing him up. With Enroth, 8 GA on 82 shot attempts. That's AWFUL.
I also took a look at our centermen and Rielly. Numbers that stick out:
Matthews & Rielly: 219 min GF60 3.00 GA60 2.73 PDO 95.9 CF60 68.74 CA60 50.73 CF% 57.5
Kadri & Rielly: 391 min GF60 1.91 GA60 2.91 PDO 96.8 CF60 61.94 CA60 59.95 CF% 50.8
Bozak & Rielly: 192 min GF60 3.12 GA60 4.67 PDO 95.8 CF60 64.2 CA60 57.35 CF% 52.8
Smith & Rielly: 80 min GF60 1.49 GA60 3.73 PDO 98.2 CF60 41.02 CA60 77.56 CF% 34.6
- Rielly has had some pretty shitty luck with everyone.. those PDO's can't be sustainable
- Rielly and Matthews is the best combination on the Leafs. Gardiner only has a 53% CF% with Matthews. Hunwick 50.5%.
- Rielly and Kadri together get the toughest assignments. Ok Shot Attempts, shitty luck (6% Sh%)
- Rielly and Bozak, despite good shot attempts is AWFUL in the goals against department.
- Rielly and Smith is an absolute tire fire.
Not surprisingly, a STILL young defenseman playing with an older rookie dman getting shitty defensive centers equals awful GA60.
Seriously, don't play Rielly with the Bozak or Smith lines and he's fine. He really helps drive the Matthews line offense, more than Gardiner does. Gardiner gets GF%: 54.5 and CF%: 54.4 with Bozak, with a sustainable PDO.
More on deployment:
Gardiner and Smith have ZERO goals against at 5 on 5 this season (also, Zero goals for, but less worrisome to me) and a 49.5% CF%. And that's with 110 mins together (30% of Smith's mins this season). Hunwick and Smith have an even GF% and a not so nice CF% of 46.4, but much better than with Rielly.
1. Kadri line should be with Rielly for the most part. Gardiner gets the remainder. (Those should be the toughest mins anyways.)
2. Matthews line should see more Rielly. Hunlack gets the rest (GF% 56.3%, PDO 100.0, CF% 50.5%)
3. Play Gardiner with the Bozak line alot. GF% of 54.4, PDO 100.4, CF% of 54.4.
4. Give Gardiner as much of Smiths ice-time as possible too. Let Hunlack take the rest of Smith's minutes.
Assuming approx 48 mins 5on5:
14-15 min Matthews: Rielly 7-8, Hunlack 6-7
14-15 mins Kadri: Rielly 11-12, Gardiner 3-4
12-13 mins Bozak: Gardiner 11-12, Hunlack 2
6 mins Smith: Gardiner 4-5, Hunlack 1-2
Rielly-Zaitsev 18-20
Gardiner-Carrick 18-20
Hunlack 9-10
herman
Well-known member
Thanks for pulling up the numbers, Coco-puffs.
I'm struggling to read it because the alignment didn't come through for you.
If you have the time/software, would you mind throwing it into Excel and converting to a BBCode table?
I'm struggling to read it because the alignment didn't come through for you.
If you have the time/software, would you mind throwing it into Excel and converting to a BBCode table?
Defencemen stats from the past 11 games since Rielly returned from his injury:
I've mentioned in the past few GDT's that the Rielly-Zaitsev pairing was basically on the ice in all the goals against in those games. They've been on the ice for all 8 non-empty net goals in the past 3 games. That includes two powerplay goals against. In the 11 games since Rielly returned from his injury the Rielly-Zaitsev pairing has been on the ice for 16 of the 24 5-on-5 goals the team has given up.
Figured I'd see what the other defencemen looked like during this time, and was obviously pretty surprised to see Hunlack's numbers. I knew that their goals against were low, but didn't expect their CF% to be roughly the same as everyone elses. Is Hunlack actually good?
| Defenceman | CF/60 | CA/60 | CF% | GA | GF% |
| Rielly | 66.24 | 60.36 | 52.3 | 16 | 40.7 |
| Zaitsev | 69.5 | 62.84 | 52.5 | 17 | 39.3 |
| Gardiner | 64.99 | 57.25 | 53.2 | 5 | 72.2 |
| Carrick | 66.32 | 56.79 | 53.9 | 5 | 66.7 |
| Hunwick | 55.09 | 50.65 | 52.1 | 2 | 71.4 |
| Polak | 60.89 | 52.67 | 53.6 | 2 | 77.9 |
I've mentioned in the past few GDT's that the Rielly-Zaitsev pairing was basically on the ice in all the goals against in those games. They've been on the ice for all 8 non-empty net goals in the past 3 games. That includes two powerplay goals against. In the 11 games since Rielly returned from his injury the Rielly-Zaitsev pairing has been on the ice for 16 of the 24 5-on-5 goals the team has given up.
Figured I'd see what the other defencemen looked like during this time, and was obviously pretty surprised to see Hunlack's numbers. I knew that their goals against were low, but didn't expect their CF% to be roughly the same as everyone elses. Is Hunlack actually good?
Coco-puffs
New member
CarltonTheBear said:
Last nights game was such a screwy one. Rielly and Zaitsev had CF60 rates around 100 and CA60 rates close to 35. 3 GA on 10/11 shot attempts.
In terms of shot share, their worst game out of the last three was the Carolina game. Both below 50% with CA60 in the mid-60's and CF60 below 50.
Against Ottawa they again DROVE offense (at both ends of the ice) at CF60 rates in the mid 80's and CA60 in the mid 60's. On for 3 GA and 2 GF at 5-on-5.