The Defensive Logjam

[CarltonTheBear]

Can you slot in their PDOs?

As you can imagine, it's terrible for 2 of them and sky-high for the other 4. I didn't mean to suggest that these results are sustainable or anything like that. It's obviously a small sample size too. But I also don't think that's enough to brush them off.

Edit: usage for Gardiner/Carrick and Hunlak are also pretty sheltered, other than Hunwick on PK (as Polak is usually in the box).

Gardiner leads the team in 5-on-5 ice time during that stretch (Although he, Rielly, and Zaitsev are basically neck and neck). Rielly and Zaitsev get the toughest matchup yes, but Jake's still playing a ton of minutes so it's hard to say he's being sheltered. But even if that is the case, it still goes back to something I've been saying since last season: Babs isn't using our defencemen properly. It's too easy to say "well Rielly-Zaitsev are getting tuned up because they're getting the toughest match-ups". That doesn't happen to every top pairing. We have other options there and Babs hasn't made much of an effort to find one that works.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Last nights game was such a screwy one. Rielly and Zaitsev had CF60 rates around 100 and CA60 rates close to 35.  3 GA on 10/11 shot attempts. 

In terms of shot share, their worst game out of the last three was the Carolina game.  Both below 50% with CA60 in the mid-60's and CF60 below 50. 

Against Ottawa they again DROVE offense (at both ends of the ice) at CF60 rates in the mid 80's and CA60 in the mid 60's.  On for 3 GA and 2 GF at 5-on-5.

Yeah those Ottawa and Winnipeg games were definitely strange. A big chunk of their GA came in them and yet their possession numbers were solid. If you looked at their numbers prior to those games the goals against shares are: Zaitsev 11, Rielly 10, Gardiner/Carrick 5, Polak/Hunwick 2. Rielly and Zaitsev both also see their CF% fall just a smidge below 50%.

 

[herman]

I've been saying since last season: Babs isn't using our defencemen properly. It's too easy to say "well Rielly-Zaitsev are getting tuned up because they're getting the toughest match-ups". That doesn't happen to every top pairing. We have other options there and Babs hasn't made much of an effort to find one that works.

I not sure why he's been so hesitant to unleash Gardiner against top pairs. I know he wants to shelter Carrick, and he and Gardiner give each other a boost.

I am pretty comfortable with saying that Babcock is not fully optimizing his lineups right now (for development reasons).

Anyway, I'm also curious to see how the pairings shake out in Fenwick/60 and Expected-Goals/60, to give a bit more context to what they're doing.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Anyway, I'm also curious to see how the pairings shake out in Fenwick/60 and Expected-Goals/60, to give a bit more context to what they're doing.

Their Fenwick stats look a lot like their Corsi ones, as they're often known to do. I believe the analytics community has basically moved away from that stat because of that.

I didn't use expected goals because quite frankly I don't know too much about them or how much they should be trusted. It'd definitely be an awesome stat to have if they are accurate. Here's those expected + actual stats for the past 11 games:

Defenceman	xGF/60	GF/60	xGA/60	GA/60	xGF%	GF%
Rielly	3.38	3.4	2.97	4.95	53.22	40.7
Zaitsev	3.58	3.49	3.02	5.39	54.25	39.3
Gardiner	2.73	4.02	2.55	1.55	51.75	72.2
Carrick	2.57	3.53	2.43	1.76	51.44	66.7
Hunwick	2.92	2.22	2.49	0.89	53.96	71.4
Polak	3.34	2.61	2.46	0.75	57.6	77.9

The expected numbers paint a better picture, although those xGA numbers are still high for Rielly/Zaitsev. The top-10 worst defencemen league wide in xGA/60 hover around 3.00 (Zaitsev and Rielly rank 8-9 in that stat).

 

[herman]

The Expected numbers I use as shorthand for whether or not they're generating or giving up prime opportunities, taking into account shooting location, shot type, situation leading up to the shot, all with league averaged shooting/save percentage, so I usually compare them against CF/FF (not SCF which I don't know who determines that). I don't think it's perfectly accurate in that it still needs manual data logging of shot locations, etc. but it's better than raw Corsi for context.

xGA/60 vs GA/60 shows they're getting a ridiculously low level of goaltending luck for some reason. It could be a ridiculous amount of miscommunication leading to blown coverage and tap-ins, or it could really just be spiky data. Rielly and Zaitsev's xGA/60 is not that far off from the rest of the (sheltered) pairings, but clearly Andersen having trouble stopping shots with them in front, vs Hunlak. Their baddish xGA60 doesn't account for their out of control tire fire GA60.

This is where I'd scope out the Fenwick stats too, because Hunwick and Polak tend to throw themselves at the shooter. I know Fenwick has fallen a little out of favour, but it still has value in providing context (and in special teams analysis).

Babcock line matches pretty hard too, so I'm trying to remember who Rielly and Zaitsev are backing (either Kadri or Matthews, I assume). Our defensive structure is pretty reliant on forward support, and sagging into home plate to outnumber down low. We got killed on point shots + deflections/rebounds these past few games.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Brent Burns, who will win the Norris trophy, has an xGA60 of 2.94 (8th worst).  Zaitsev is 2.90 (13th) and Rielly is 2.89 (15th) on the season (all stats min. 300 mins).

On the xGF60 side:

LEAGUE WIDE RANKING (min 300 mins)
1.  Marincin 3.3
3.  Gardiner 3.16
9.  Polak 3.01
12.  Rielly 2.98
22.  Carrick 2.89
24.  Zaitsev 2.87

The Leafs as a whole are simply a high-event team.  Oddly enough for Rielly, the damage they've sustained on the defensive end has come while on the ice with the Bozak and Smith lines- our supposed veterans.  And no matter who they've been on the ice with, their luck hasn't been good.  (Look at their "together" PDO's I posted yesterday)

 

[dekedastardly]

I guess with Carrick down we'll probably see Marchenko take his place

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Brent Burns, who will win the Norris trophy, has an xGA60 of 2.94 (8th worst).

His actually GA/60 is 1.86, one of the best in the league among top pairing guys. So I'm not really sure what to make of that.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Brent Burns, who will win the Norris trophy, has an xGA60 of 2.94 (8th worst).

His actually GA/60 is 1.86, one of the best in the league among top pairing guys. So I'm not really sure what to make of that.

I guess I should have checked that before using him as an example.  LOL.

Maaaybe xG needs some refinement :S

 

[herman]

Brent Burns, who will win the Norris trophy, has an xGA60 of 2.94 (8th worst).

His actually GA/60 is 1.86, one of the best in the league among top pairing guys. So I'm not really sure what to make of that.

I guess I should have checked that before using him as an example.  LOL.

Maaaybe xG needs some refinement :S

xG is just an approximation of what a perfectly average player would achieve in those same spots and shots. This is also an on-ice stat, so it's not 100% attributable to a single player, and San Jose's system will have some effect.

There are also 2 xG algorithms: Corsica's (descriptive) and DTMAboutHeart's (more predictive).

Brent Burns' PDO (5v5 adj) of 103+ explains the differential between xGA60 (3.03) and GA60 (2.04).

 

[AvroArrow]

I... Uh... What???

 

[herman]

I... Uh... What???

Do you have a specific question that I can try to help with?

Also, Gardchenko tomorrow!

 

[Zee]

I... Uh... What???

Do you have a specific question that I can try to help with?

Also, Gardchenko tomorrow!

I really hope Marchenko is an upgrade over Hunlak.  Just make the safe plays, clear the zone, don't be responsible for a goal against, that's all I ask.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/Berger_BYTES/status/834795713917751296
Berger makes his case for defense.

 

[Coco-puffs]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/836289812223053827

I believe she has the order wrong here.  If Gardiner is with Zaitsev, I'm thinking Babcock has seen enough of the Rielly-Zaitsev top pair and wants to shake it up a bit.  I'm all for Gardiner playing the heavier minutes to see how it goes.  I still hold hope for Rielly to develop into a better defenseman, but at this point Gardiner is better.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/markhmasters/status/836297295368900609
www.twitter.com/markhmasters/status/836297295368900609

Polak putting in some Russ Tyler reps after figuring out Fulton Reed was the wrong role model.

 

[wnc096]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/836289812223053827

  I still hold hope for Rielly to develop into a better defenseman, but at this point Gardiner is better.

I don't think Gardiner is better than Rielly.  Gardiner plays sheltered minutes.  When he plays against the other teams #1 lines he gets eaten alive...which was evident when Reilly was hurt.  I do agree that Reilly has been pretty bad lately tho

 

[gunnar36]

Hadn't checked the stats in a while, but Gardiner is a +23! Marchenko is 2nd highest at +9.

 

[slapshot]

Wonder if the Leafs might consider Darren Raddysh as an undrafted overage prospect, leading OHL in scoring by d-man by a wide margin, 74 points to nearest 61. And, second leader among d-man played 6 more games. Ontario (Toronto area) kid. His brother Taylor is a top Tampa prospect. Darren has been invited to NHL camps the past three years. A right-handed shot 6'1" 200 pounds. Might be a late bloomer?

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Marchenko is 2nd highest at +9.

Further proof, arguably, that this is a meaningless stat. Marchenko hasn't exactly been a refreshing edition to the team so far.