The Defensive Logjam

[herman]

http://theleafsnation.com/2017/1/10/reimagining-how-we-approach-the-leafs-defence

Jeff gets me.
https://twitter.com/JeffVeillette/status/791803356230582273
www.twitter.com/JeffVeillette/status/791803356230582273

Synopsis:

• 2016-17 Leafs have the 4th most dangerous offense in the last 10 years (since play-by-play stats started to be tracked), with ~7 rookies in the lineup regularly
• The shutdown defensemen people want are low-event
• High CF60 + Low CA60 is very expensive (and doesn't exist?). But High CF60 + mediocre CA60 is pretty affordable. As long as the CF% is positive, basically.

I think this team almost has the horses to play a fluid, rather than stationary, defense the way they currently play fluid offense, mostly because it's dependent on the forwards, i.e. roles are basically your default position, but your duties are dependent on your proximity to the puck and direction of flow.

https://twitter.com/ml_han/status/818548916975190017
www.twitter.com/ml_han/status/818548916975190017

We've already seen this up front with Babcock experimenting with dual centres, offensive zone auto-pinch with high forward support. The Leafs run a modified swarm in the defensive zone to always try to outnumber the puck carrier. This usually leaves at least someone more open than usual.

Carlyle got it right when he didn't mind receiving shots from certain areas; the only flaw (other than lack of talent) was he played it too conservatively (off the glass and out), which led to repeated attempts with rapidly diminishing defensive effectiveness.

Babcock's system also doesn't mind shots from low-risk areas, but is far more aggressive (think Hyman, Brown, Soshnikov, Marner on D), and plays to the percentages of puck retrieval with numbers. Some players are still calibrating because it's quite different than traditional defense where you either mind your zone, or take your man. This aggressive swarm defense requires a lot of support from teammates. Those wide open breakdowns we saw very early in the season, and lately are generally communication issues. Individually, the process is relatively straight-forward. Making sure everyone is doing it at the same time is trickier. It's very Soccer/Basketball.

 

[hobarth]

I love the way TO is PKing, very aggressive but it seems strange that 5v5 defending isn't as effective late in games.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Great article about the Leafs defensemen from theAthleticTO (not surprising):

https://theathletic.com/34148/2017/01/17/charting-hockey-leafs-blueline-better-than-advertised-but-they-need-a-new-third-pair/

The summary:

As usual, Gardiner and Rielly plot in the ?good? category ? they create zone exits with possession at a greater rate than league average. Zaitsev, Carrick, and Marincin settle into a middle tier, each hanging around league average for break-ups while falling below average in zone exits.

Two names pop off this chart. First is Hunwick, who has managed above average work in zone exits and break-up percentage. This suggests there?s a little more to his game than we might notice at first glance.

The other name that catches the eye is Roman Polak. Polak falls below average in break-up percentage, which is notable. However, the real story is Polak?s intense struggles exiting the zone with control.

I think the main takeaway from this is Hunwick himself isn't as bad as some have been saying.  He's really being dragged down by Polak who needs to be replaced in the lineup, despite his supposed success on the PK.  Last I checked Marincin was pretty good on the PK and would be a big improvement 5-on-5 for the bottom pairing.  I really hope he gets a shot with Hunwick once he's healthy. 

I've pretty much given up hope Babcock will insert Corrado in the lineup unless we have a couple of injuries, unfortunately, but now would be the time to do it while Marincin is still healing and Polak continues to drag the team down.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think the main takeaway from this is Hunwick himself isn't as bad as some have been saying.  He's really being dragged down by Polak who needs to be replaced in the lineup, despite his supposed success on the PK.  Last I checked Marincin was pretty good on the PK and would be a big improvement 5-on-5 for the bottom pairing.  I really hope he gets a shot with Hunwick once he's healthy.

The downside to that though is that it puts one of those two defencemen, typically Marincin, on their weak side. And Marincin has generally seemed to struggle playing the right side, it just doesn't suit his style. It also might surprise people to see that a Marincin-Polak pairing actually produced pretty good results last season: they had a 55.1% CF on the ice together then.

 

[Arn]

That was something I actually meant to mention that I picked up from the game last week, while obviously recognising one game is a very small sample size. Hunwick actually looked relatively comfortable out there, but Polak was the panicker.

The leafs have quite a good effective method of getting the puck out of the zone - I've seen it referenced elsewhere on this site and in some reports lately - which basically comes to small deflections on the blueline or use of the boards. Polak however doesn't seem to have the more gentle touch needed for this type of play and almost seems to panic and just throw the puck down the ice. It was quite noticeable even in one game.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I think the main takeaway from this is Hunwick himself isn't as bad as some have been saying.  He's really being dragged down by Polak who needs to be replaced in the lineup, despite his supposed success on the PK.  Last I checked Marincin was pretty good on the PK and would be a big improvement 5-on-5 for the bottom pairing.  I really hope he gets a shot with Hunwick once he's healthy.

The downside to that though is that it puts one of those two defencemen, typically Marincin, on their weak side. And Marincin has generally seemed to struggle playing the right side, it just doesn't suit his style. It also might surprise people to see that a Marincin-Polak pairing actually produced pretty good results last season: they had a 55.1% CF on the ice together then.

I agree Marincin hasn't looked good on his weak side (right) in the limited time we've seen him there.  I'm not sure it could get worse than what Polak is doing so far though.

I was not aware of their (Marincin-Polak) numbers together last year.  What kind of sample size was that?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I was not aware of their (Marincin-Polak) numbers together last year.  What kind of sample size was that?

342 minutes of Marincin's 909. They were each their most frequent defence partners, although they both played with a lot of different defencemen. Still, Polak wasn't over 50% with any other Leafs D. Not even Gardiner (49.2% in 179 minutes) or Rielly (48.6% in 117 minutes).

 

[Coco-puffs]

I was not aware of their (Marincin-Polak) numbers together last year.  What kind of sample size was that?

342 minutes of Marincin's 909. They were each their most frequent defence partners, although they both played with a lot of different defencemen. Still, Polak wasn't over 50% with any other Leafs D. Not even Gardiner (49.2% in 179 minutes) or Rielly (48.6% in 117 minutes).

Thanks for the numbers.  Quality of Competition probably comes into play- in the Top 4 with Reilly or Gardiner), bottom pairing with Marincin.  But still, that is interesting and might be the only hope we'd have for Polak actually being effective enough to stay in the lineup (other than the supposed good work he's doing on the PK).

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/ml_han/status/823372674613280769
www.twitter.com/ml_han/status/823372674613280769

Our PK structure emphasizes aggressively outmanning the puck carrier. It does mean a lot of the time a powerplayer is left wide open, but the likelihood of a pass going through cleanly to that player is greatly decreased by the maze of legs and sticks in the shooting and passing lanes.

Sticking with the chemistry metaphor, to generate good pressure against the powerplay, this structure of play requires a good deal of speed and agility. Guys like Brown, Hyman, and Soshnikov are perfect for this style. Kapanen will be a great addition next season, with his faster-than-Grabner speed.

This video is an addendum to this podcast:
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/1/23/14352138/ppp-podcast-tactics

• Do the Leafs have trouble disrupting opponents? cycle game?
• The Leafs? D can be really porous at their own blue line when defending the rush. Why?
• Player usage on the power play
• The penalty kill. How important is mobility?
• Is it a good idea to have a puck retrieval player on each line? i.e. a Zach Hyman type

The Jack Han tea analogy is gold.

 

[slapshot]

I think Marincin has played a lot better since coming back from injury and being used regularly with higher minutes since Rielly's been out. Seems to have helped his confidence. It seems entirely likely the Leafs might move a couple of d-men out at the trade deadline for picks, Polak, Hunwick and Corrado being likely candidates. If Hunwick is moved that would likely solidify Marincin in the 3 D pairing for now. Of course, it would be nice to a a second pairing right d and move Carrick to the 5 spot, which would make more sense.
I kind of scanned the rosters to see who might a fit in that second pairing right d-spot. Just going to through some names out to see what people might think?

.Of course there is Shattenkirk, the obvious one.
What about Erik Johnson of Colorado if (and may be a big if) the Avalanche were willing to retain say $1 million of his salary. He may thrive under Babcock. I look for the Avs to shake-things up. Johnson is only 28 and is under contract until he is 34, not that old.
Connor Murphy of the Coyotes is another decent sized right hand d-man, not as much offense as Johnson, but a cheaper price tag. The Yotes also have a decent prospect in lumbering 6'5" Kyle Wood having a real good year in the AHl, if the Leafs were looking for someone who might grow into a top 4 guy.
EriK Gudbranson with Canucks becomes a RFA and might be interesting. Then of course there is still Jacob Trouba out there.
I suspect the Leafs will just tinker at the trade deadline, and leave any big moves to the off-season. Big priority should be getting Zaitsev signed to a long term deal. I figure the Robidas money pretty much gets flipped to Zaitsev. Any other names any one has looked at or considered?

 

[sickbeast]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

 

[TBLeafer]

I think Marincin has played a lot better since coming back from injury and being used regularly with higher minutes since Rielly's been out. Seems to have helped his confidence. It seems entirely likely the Leafs might move a couple of d-men out at the trade deadline for picks, Polak, Hunwick and Corrado being likely candidates. If Hunwick is moved that would likely solidify Marincin in the 3 D pairing for now. Of course, it would be nice to a a second pairing right d and move Carrick to the 5 spot, which would make more sense.
I kind of scanned the rosters to see who might a fit in that second pairing right d-spot. Just going to through some names out to see what people might think?

.Of course there is Shattenkirk, the obvious one.
What about Erik Johnson of Colorado if (and may be a big if) the Avalanche were willing to retain say $1 million of his salary. He may thrive under Babcock. I look for the Avs to shake-things up. Johnson is only 28 and is under contract until he is 34, not that old.
Connor Murphy of the Coyotes is another decent sized right hand d-man, not as much offense as Johnson, but a cheaper price tag. The Yotes also have a decent prospect in lumbering 6'5" Kyle Wood having a real good year in the AHl, if the Leafs were looking for someone who might grow into a top 4 guy.
EriK Gudbranson with Canucks becomes a RFA and might be interesting. Then of course there is still Jacob Trouba out there.
I suspect the Leafs will just tinker at the trade deadline, and leave any big moves to the off-season. Big priority should be getting Zaitsev signed to a long term deal. I figure the Robidas money pretty much gets flipped to Zaitsev. Any other names any one has looked at or considered?

Just thought I'd move that discussion here, because it would involve a trade.

I've brought up Johnson myself among various circles.  Taking a shot at him makes a lot of sense because we know Colorado is looking to blow it up and we have a plethora of top prospect futures.

I'd seriously consider a trade for him the looks something like the following:

To Colorado:

Kapanen
Nielsen
Polak
2018 1st (lottery protected)
Laich

To Toronto:
Johnson
2017 4th (Colorado's pick not the Rangers pick)

Thoughts?

 

[herman]

http://theleafsnation.com/2017/1/31/examining-the-neutral-zone-play-of-the-leafs-defence-corps

I've been looking for Zone Exit and Entry numbers for the defense; it's a microstat that is not currently being tracked by the official stat counters, so sites like Corsica can't just scrape the databases. So Corey Sznajder has been tracking these things manually with a crazy team of nerds.

Even if you don't read the whole article, just take a gander at the difference between 2013/14 Gardiner/Rielly, vs this year.

 

[ZBBM]

I'll say it again, and last night was a stark reminder: you can't have a logjam when you have more twigs than logs.

 

[Kin]

I'll say it again, and last night was a stark reminder: you can't have a logjam when you have more twigs than logs.

I'll say it again, that's not how metaphors work.

 

[Zee]

I'll say it again, and last night was a stark reminder: you can't have a logjam when you have more twigs than logs.

Twigjam it is.

 

[Andy007]

I've brought up Johnson myself among various circles.  Taking a shot at him makes a lot of sense because we know Colorado is looking to blow it up and we have a plethora of top prospect futures.

I'd seriously consider a trade for him the looks something like the following:

To Colorado:

Kapanen
Nielsen
Polak
2018 1st (lottery protected)
Laich

To Toronto:
Johnson
2017 4th (Colorado's pick not the Rangers pick)

Thoughts?

So essentially it boils down to Johnson for Nielson, Kapanen and a 1st? I don't know, that seems like an awful lot to give up for a guy who is going to be over 30 when the Leafs realistically begin to start contending. I'd either keep and develop those assets or trade them for a younger, higher ceiling player, which that package certainly should be able to yield.

 

[Highlander]

Me no likey?to much for an older dude

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The Habs placed Mark Barberio on waivers today, TLN makes a good case for picking him up: http://theleafsnation.com/2017/2/1/the-leafs-should-put-in-a-waiver-claim-on-mark-barberio

He's sort of like a Martin Marincin-type defenceman when it comes to the fancy stats. Which makes sense since maybe he could take Marincin's spot on the 3rd pairing next season if Marty is selected in the expansion draft.

In the mean-time though it presents a bit of a problem as it gives us 9 defencemen on the roster and a glut of left-handed ones. In that case though I would just waive Corrado. It's clear even if there's an injury Babcock still doesn't really trust him with minutes. It creates an imbalance with the lefties/righties but Babs has used Marincin on the right side before if necessary so it's not that big of a deal. What I think would happen is we would see:

Rielly-Zaitsev
Gardiner-Carrick
Marincin-Polak
Hunwick-Barberio

Barberio basically just improves our #7 defenceman slot and gives us a bit more usable depth.

But in terms of what I personally would do would be to slide Rielly back to the right-side and knock the other righties down a peg into a spot they're likely more suited for:

Gardiner-Rielly
Marincin-Zaitsev
Barberio-Carrick/Polak
Hunwick-Polak/Carrick

I'm basically hoping for Babcock to come to terms with 2 things after Rielly's injury: 1) Babcock sees something he really likes in the Marincin-Zaitsev pairing. Their WOWYs have them at a 56.9% CF together this season, most if not all of which would have come in that span of time. Small sample size, sure, but they've looked good as a 2nd pairing unit. I like Zaitsev but that's probably more where belongs. And 2) Gardiner's ready for heavier minutes. A few brain cramps aside, Gardiner looked really good as the teams top defencemen since Rielly's injury. Start playing him like it. Yes, having Rielly on his off-wing isn't ideal but these two have shown in the past that they can put up fantastic results together. Let's give our top-2 defencemen a chance to play together.

I'm leaving a Polak option open on the 3rd pairing if Babcock needs him to play on the penalty kill. It's not ideal, but it's a sacrifice I'd make if it means getting that top-4 in place.

 

[Zee]

What's the record for waiver claims in a season?  Leafs want to challenge that if we grab him.