TOP 5 PICK!!!

[Optimus Reimer]

It's good the Leafs got a top 5 pick, but it will be wasted drafting a player Leafs brass thinks will be a really good player, but ends up being average at best.  Or the pick will be traded, with a return that was not worth the pick itself.  I just don't see the Leafs doing anything good with the pick.

 

[Bullfrog]

You're a real ray of sunshine, aren't you?

The way I see it, the Leafs almost can't lose with this pick.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

It's good the Leafs got a top 5 pick, but it will be wasted drafting a player Leafs brass thinks will be a really good player, but ends up being average at best.  Or the pick will be traded, with a return that was not worth the pick itself.  I just don't see the Leafs doing anything good with the pick.

That's very optimistic.

 

[Tigger]

It's good the Leafs got a top 5 pick, but it will be wasted drafting a player Leafs brass thinks will be a really good player, but ends up being average at best.  Or the pick will be traded, with a return that was not worth the pick itself.  I just don't see the Leafs doing anything good with the pick.

Well, it is hard to say for sure one way or the other. Put it this way, it's better to have a top 5 pick in a non playoff year than what we're used to.

 

[Peter D.]

The way I see it, the Leafs almost can't lose with this pick.

Yup.  Unless Burke and the brass go off the board*.

* Off the board for me is not taking one of Yakupov, Murray, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk or Forsberg.  There are a few others being touted as potential top 5 picks, but I'll be disappointed if one of the five mentioned above doesn't don a Leaf sweater come draft day.

 

[maplesyrup]

Would anyone object to trading down? There seems to be more than a few intriguing guys in the 6-15 range too.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Would anyone object to trading down? There seems to be more than a few intriguing guys in the 6-15 range too.

I'm gonna need to put a muzzle on you...

 

[Peter D.]

Would anyone object to trading down? There seems to be more than a few intriguing guys in the 6-15 range too.

Depends where we'd drop down to and what we'd pick up in the process.  Also, if one of the teams ahead of us picks someone out of the ordinary and someone is falling (ie. Grigorenko, similar to Couturier last year), then I'd be up for it as well.

But I personally don't want to see the Leafs stray away from the top 5, or at least too far from it.

 

[maplesyrup]

Would anyone object to trading down? There seems to be more than a few intriguing guys in the 6-15 range too.

I'm gonna need to put a muzzle on you...

haha... Faska, Gaunce, a couple of the other "d" - I'm reading good things about all of them. This Teravainen kid too. Small but apparently has as much skill as anyone in the draft? I mean, if the Leafs like one of then and could say pick up another late 1st?  Lots of options here - including trading up or keeping the pick.

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Would anyone object to trading down? There seems to be more than a few intriguing guys in the 6-15 range too.

I'd like us to keep the #5 and trade for another first rounder between 10th and 15th overall. Would have been possible had we obtained a first rounder at the deadline - I guess less possible without.

 

[proteus2000]

Would anyone object to trading down? There seems to be more than a few intriguing guys in the 6-15 range too.

I'd like us to keep the #5 and trade for another first rounder between 10th and 15th overall. Would have been possible had we obtained a first rounder at the deadline - I guess less possible without.

It's certainly worth a thought, but I think unless they have a specific guy in mind they should draft as high as possible. Sure someone could be a bust, but the odds show it's less likely. Burke talked trash about trading down (potentially all the way to Tavares) in the '09 draft, but he had to settle for 7th and Kadri. All of players taken before him are now solid nhl players- Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, Kane, Schenn, and Ekmann-Larssen.

 

[Kin]

haha... Faska, Gaunce, a couple of the other "d" - I'm reading good things about all of them.

Dude, think for a second about what being a first round pick in the NHL means. It means that out of the whatever millions of hockey players born in '94 you're one of the top 30. It means that, according to the CBA the league negotiated, you're going to be getting a significant chunk of money before you even step foot onto the ice.

You're not going to read about a guy projected to be in the first round of the NHL draft and see things like "Constantly holding his stick the wrong way up" or "Probably will be selling insurance in two or three years". These guys are the elites of the elites of the elites. Every year guys are written about glowingly and every year a bunch of those guys who get great write-ups are going to be busts. Heck, just being drafted probably means you're in the top .1% or so. Don't get carried away because you're reading "good things" about a prospect. There are good things to say about all of these guys.

If there's a player the Leafs like, they should just draft him. Don't worry about position or where he's projected to go. Don't try and overthink things and maybe trade themselves out of drafting the player they want. The reality is that most of these guys are unlikely to be superstars in the NHL and the further you drop, the less likely you are to add someone great.

The Leafs, by most accounts, have good organizational depth. They don't need to add extra second or third round picks to add to that and draft guys with smaller chances of success.

 

[maplesyrup]

I'm not exactly thinking of adding additional pick for the sake of it. It's actually more to your point that "If there's a player the Leafs like, they should just draft him." - and if you can trade down to get another prospect or pick in the process? Why not? I know what you mean about the scouting reports and bios though. It is rather easy to get caught up in all the rubbish.

 

[Kin]

It's actually more to your point that "If there's a player the Leafs like, they should just draft him." - and if you can trade down to get another prospect or pick in the process? Why not?

Because the further you trade down, and the further you trade down increases what you'll get for trading down, the more you increase the likelihood of not getting the guy you want.

Burke's not a magician. If he trades down from 5 to 8 or 10 or 15 he doesn't know who's going to be there when he picks. There's no way he could get the three or five or ten general managers to assure him who they'll take because they won't know who'll be there either. Even if they do by some miracle, can Burke know that someone else won't try to trade in front of him and get the guy he hopes to draft? The draft has a ton of variables that Burke can't control.

Trading down is a risk. It's something you do if you don't really like anyone you think will be available and/or(and really and) if someone else is putting a ton of value on someone available at your spot. If there's a guy the Leafs like they don't have room to be cute and hope he's there at 9 or wherever. History has taught us that the price for trading down is not that high and that the draft is unpredictable.

 

[maplesyrup]

Well, I suppose I'd only do it if there's a few guys you like as opposed to just one. - I certainly wouldn't count on any magic.

 

[Kin]

Well, I suppose I'd only do it if there's a few guys you like as opposed to just one. - I certainly wouldn't count on any magic.

But again, I would say that each and every GM in the league is going to "like" dozens of prospects in this year's draft. Again, a guy who gets picked in the first round is not going to have obvious flaws that rule him out as a good NHL player. Big boy decision time in the NHL is looking at the good prospects and deciding which one is the guy you're going to put money on.

This is not a super-strong draft. Reality is that the Leafs won't be head over heels with who's available at #5. The idea that there are going to multiple guys at 8 or 13 or wherever that they'd be super happy about doesn't hunt.

 

[maplesyrup]

But again, I would say that each and every GM in the league is going to "like" dozens of prospects in this year's draft. Again, a guy who gets picked in the first round is not going to have obvious flaws that rule him out as a good NHL player. Big boy decision time in the NHL is looking at the good prospects and deciding which one is the guy you're going to put money on.

This is not a super-strong draft. Reality is that the Leafs won't be head over heels with who's available at #5. The idea that there are going to multiple guys at 8 or 13 or wherever that they'd be super happy about doesn't hunt.

Okay, so say Burke makes his "big boy decision" on say, Forsberg. - Just throwing a name out there. What if the Islanders take him? Time for another "big boy decision", right?

 

[Kin]

Okay, so say Burke makes his "big boy decision" on say, Forsberg. - Just throwing a name out there. What if the Islanders take him? Time for another "big boy decision", right?

Well, no. Because decision time comes when you're actually on the clock. The Leafs saying they like Forsberg better than Grigorenko isn't a decision in any meaningful sense unless they're both available when the Leafs are making their pick.

 

[maplesyrup]

Well, no. Because decision time comes when you're actually on the clock. The Leafs saying they like Forsberg better than Grigorenko isn't a decision in any meaningful sense unless they're both available when the Leafs are making their pick.

Sorry. Really not following you here.  :-\ Leafs like player X and then blamo!, he's gone. Now they're on the clock. I'm pretty sure they have a board they have a bunch of plans at that point to either take another guy they like or trade back. 

 

[Kin]

Sorry. Really not following you here.  :-\ Leafs like player X and then blamo!, he's gone. Now they're on the clock. I'm pretty sure they have a board they have a bunch of plans at that point to either take another guy they like or trade back.

That's the point. I'd assume that the dozens of front office elves will be fairly familiar with the top players in the draft. When they have to make a decision the task in front of them will be assessing who's left and deciding who their guy is.