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Top 6 Winger

CarltonTheBear said:
I'm starting to get into a Hall-or-bust territory.

Scattered thoughts: I don't think Forsberg or Arvidsson are really within the realm of possibility. I question whether Rakell is really that good and the cost to acquire him seems very high because of the extra year of his contract, which might not even really be a positive considering the upcoming expansion draft. Conor Garland seems like a solid player, but is he really what this group needs? Iafallo/Granlund/Haula seem like players that would be good fits but are they that much of an upgrade over Kerfoot playing with Tavares/Nylander (assuming Galchenyuk strikes out) that we should pay assets to get them... especially considering they'll need to sit for 2 weeks and then basically jump onto the team right as playoffs start?

The one non-Hall guy I would have loved to get was Kyle Palmieri... but reports are he won't waive his NTC to come to Canada because of the quarantine stuff, which is fair.

So I'm basically really hoping that between Hall's salary, his not-so-great stats this season, and his NTC, that the Leafs are basically Buffalo's only option to trade with and we get him at a reasonable cost.
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The quarantine issue is a real concern for me in terms of making any sort of significant deal at the deadline this year. I also have some concerns about how well the Leafs will actually stack up against the better teams in the league, as we don't have a good basis for comparison. I get that, from the perspective of the team's path to the final four, this is a good year to go all-in, but from other perspectives, I'm skeptical.

I still think some depth moves, and that's about it.
 
L K said:
What are we realistically thinking his trade value is?

Last year he went with 50% cap retention + Blake Speers (2015 3rd rounder with no AHL production)

For:  1st round pic + 3rd round pick + Kevin Bahl (2018 2nd round pick) + Nick Merkley (2015 1st round pick) + Nate Schnarr (2017 3rd round pick)

Admittedly his production is cut in half this year compared to last and he only has 2 goals but I'm not sure that he's going to be all that cheap still.
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So that trade was a 1st rounder, a 3rd rounder, and 3 decent-to-good prospects but none of them were really considered Arizona's top prospects.

A replica of that specific trade would be the draft picks, and then 3 prospects who aren't Robertson, Sandin, or Amirov. So let's say Liljegren, Hallander, SDA. You can quibble about that a little but the main point is that none of the Leafs top 3 prospects would be getting moved even if they matched what Arizona gave up.

Like you said though, Hall's trade value is not the same as it was when Arizona acquired him. Arizona got him when he was 1.5 seasons removed from his Hart year, he had 62 points in his previous 63 games, and the Coyotes acquired him in December not at the deadline so he suited up for 35 regular season games for them before the playoffs. Now Hall is over 2.5 seasons removed from his Hart year, has 43 points in his last 65 games, and even if the Leafs acquired him right now he'd only play at most 17 regular season games with them (and of course that number gets lower every single day).

So what does that mean for the trade, based off the Arizona template? Well I'm starting with a 1st rounder draft pick and then going up from there, but probably taking Liljegren off the table when it comes to adding a prospect. Or if they really want Liljegren the 1st round pick drops to a 2nd or 3rd.
 
bustaheims said:
L K said:
What are we realistically thinking his trade value is?

Last year he went with 50% cap retention + Blake Speers (2015 3rd rounder with no AHL production)

For:  1st round pic + 3rd round pick + Kevin Bahl (2018 2nd round pick) + Nick Merkley (2015 1st round pick) + Nate Schnarr (2017 3rd round pick)

Admittedly his production is cut in half this year compared to last and he only has 2 goals but I'm not sure that he's going to be all that cheap still.
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He's a year older, a year further removed from his Hart trophy season, his production has cratered, and the Coyotes had him for more than half the season - and they didn't see him as a pure rental; they hoped to re-sign him. Some of it is bad luck (there's no way his shooting percentage remains 2.7%), but I think his value has dropped dramatically from that.
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Sounds like ... Galchenyuk.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
bustaheims said:
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Sounds like ... Galchenyuk.
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With a stronger NHL track record (and a couple years older), but, yeah, there are similarities there.
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Well they are both hockey players, yes.
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Who have a history of production that dropped off last year and cratered this year.
 
Seeing as the league is so concerned about competitive advantage, why is there not more being said about the imbalance of 3/4 of the league over the Canadian division.  The Canadian division has a quarantine period that other teams don't have.  Those players are ineligible to play but count against the cap. 

The NHL doesn't have control over the protocols on quarantine but there shouldn't be a disadvantage on acquiring guys.  Don't make them count against the cap or the roster space until they are legally cleared to be a part of the team.  This shouldn't have been an issue to implement as soon as the season had imbalanced quarantine requirements.
 
L K said:
Seeing as the league is so concerned about competitive advantage, why is there not more being said about the imbalance of 3/4 of the league over the Canadian division.  The Canadian division has a quarantine period that other teams don't have.  Those players are ineligible to play but count against the cap. 

The NHL doesn't have control over the protocols on quarantine but there shouldn't be a disadvantage on acquiring guys.  Don't make them count against the cap or the roster space until they are legally cleared to be a part of the team.  This shouldn't have been an issue to implement as soon as the season had imbalanced quarantine requirements.
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Yeah there's not exactly a ton the league could have done there but making players who have to quarantine not count against the cap during that time seems like it would have been a logical move. They can be designated as a non-roster player, which means they don't take up a spot on the 23-man roster but they do count against the cap, which for most teams doesn't really mean anything right now.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
L K said:
What are we realistically thinking his trade value is?

Last year he went with 50% cap retention + Blake Speers (2015 3rd rounder with no AHL production)

For:  1st round pic + 3rd round pick + Kevin Bahl (2018 2nd round pick) + Nick Merkley (2015 1st round pick) + Nate Schnarr (2017 3rd round pick)

Admittedly his production is cut in half this year compared to last and he only has 2 goals but I'm not sure that he's going to be all that cheap still.
Click to expand...

So that trade was a 1st rounder, a 3rd rounder, and 3 decent-to-good prospects but none of them were really considered Arizona's top prospects.

A replica of that specific trade would be the draft picks, and then 3 prospects who aren't Robertson, Sandin, or Amirov. So let's say Liljegren, Hallander, SDA. You can quibble about that a little but the main point is that none of the Leafs top 3 prospects would be getting moved even if they matched what Arizona gave up.

Like you said though, Hall's trade value is not the same as it was when Arizona acquired him. Arizona got him when he was 1.5 seasons removed from his Hart year, he had 62 points in his previous 63 games, and the Coyotes acquired him in December not at the deadline so he suited up for 35 regular season games for them before the playoffs. Now Hall is over 2.5 seasons removed from his Hart year, has 43 points in his last 65 games, and even if the Leafs acquired him right now he'd only play at most 17 regular season games with them (and of course that number gets lower every single day).

So what does that mean for the trade, based off the Arizona template? Well I'm starting with a 1st rounder draft pick and then going up from there, but probably taking Liljegren off the table when it comes to adding a prospect. Or if they really want Liljegren the 1st round pick drops to a 2nd or 3rd.
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That's probably where I'm leaning.  I'm not super thrilled with the thought of giving up a 1st round pick but I think I'd rather keep Liljegren if it came to it.
 
I'm also taking into consideration that 1st round draft picks might be a little devalued in the 2021 draft considering the situation all the junior leagues are in.
 
L K said:
CarltonTheBear said:
L K said:
What are we realistically thinking his trade value is?

Last year he went with 50% cap retention + Blake Speers (2015 3rd rounder with no AHL production)

For:  1st round pic + 3rd round pick + Kevin Bahl (2018 2nd round pick) + Nick Merkley (2015 1st round pick) + Nate Schnarr (2017 3rd round pick)

Admittedly his production is cut in half this year compared to last and he only has 2 goals but I'm not sure that he's going to be all that cheap still.
Click to expand...

So that trade was a 1st rounder, a 3rd rounder, and 3 decent-to-good prospects but none of them were really considered Arizona's top prospects.

A replica of that specific trade would be the draft picks, and then 3 prospects who aren't Robertson, Sandin, or Amirov. So let's say Liljegren, Hallander, SDA. You can quibble about that a little but the main point is that none of the Leafs top 3 prospects would be getting moved even if they matched what Arizona gave up.

Like you said though, Hall's trade value is not the same as it was when Arizona acquired him. Arizona got him when he was 1.5 seasons removed from his Hart year, he had 62 points in his previous 63 games, and the Coyotes acquired him in December not at the deadline so he suited up for 35 regular season games for them before the playoffs. Now Hall is over 2.5 seasons removed from his Hart year, has 43 points in his last 65 games, and even if the Leafs acquired him right now he'd only play at most 17 regular season games with them (and of course that number gets lower every single day).

So what does that mean for the trade, based off the Arizona template? Well I'm starting with a 1st rounder draft pick and then going up from there, but probably taking Liljegren off the table when it comes to adding a prospect. Or if they really want Liljegren the 1st round pick drops to a 2nd or 3rd.
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That's probably where I'm leaning.  I'm not super thrilled with the thought of giving up a 1st round pick but I think I'd rather keep Liljegren if it came to it.
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I tend to agree. However , when you have a decent shot at the grand prize you do have to gamble some decent assets in order to strengthen the team. My issue is the 1st / + / + could be all for not if the goaltending doesn?t hold out .
 
https://twitter.com/TSNHockey/status/1374490531321892878

Frank Seravalli echoes what a lot of other media members are saying: that Granlund is Toronto's top target right now.

Also notes that the Leafs (and other teams) are still hoping the 14-day quarantine gets knocked down to 7 days.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
https://twitter.com/DavidWCochrane/status/1375149474746630144

This might be relevant here.
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Now waiting until the deadline isn't as big a deal. They can accumulate more cap space and get some time to see how Campbell and Galchenyuk do.
 
Deebo said:
Now waiting until the deadline isn't as big a deal. They can accumulate more cap space and get some time to see how Campbell and Galchenyuk do.
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A player the Leafs acquire at the deadline would now be able to play 10-11 games with them (depending on when exactly their quarantine begins). It's only an additional 3-4 games with how the schedule is laid out, but still something.
 
I'm torn between: woohoo great for the Leafs and ugh private companies lobbying for exceptions to public health directives

Leaning towards the woohoo side given the buttload of testing hockey players have to go through, but that pushes me back towards the ugh because private companies buying up a buttload of tests and associated resources for an entertainment product. But the entertainment product is a diversion for many folks who are going stir crazy hunkering down to keep their friends, families, neighbours safe.
 
Here's a thought: I wonder if we could potentially see players that might get moved at the deadline, like Hall, essentially get pre-quarantined by their teams leading up to the deadline. If he started quarantining a few days before the deadline (or maybe even a full week), would the Leafs then be able to pick him up on a private plane and have him play earlier?

We already see stuff like this sorta happen with players sometimes not playing close to the deadline to avoid injuries.
 
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