Unofficial 2012/2013 Armchair GM

[BlueWhiteBlood]

If it looks like Clarkson is going to make it to UFA, I say trade Grabovski for his rights and use the money on Bozak and Clarkson. Re-sign O'Byrne, and look for one of the many pending UFA centres for the 4th line and Bob's yer uncle.

van Riemsdyk - Bozak - Kessel
Lupul - Kadri - Clarkson
Kulemin - McClement - Frattin
Komarov - * - McLaren

Gunnarsson - Phaneuf
Gardiner - O'Byrne
Liles - Franson

* there are a couple of interesting players who will likely make it to free agency. Mike Zigomanis, Boyd Gordon, Jerred Smithson, Craig Adams, Tim Brent, Scott Nichol, Jeff Halpern, or Marty Reasoner. The Leafs can also look from within.

If the Leafs sign Bozak for 5 years, that'll give them a less than ideal but adequate option at centre while they wait for Colborne. If Colborne is ready for top 6 duties in a year or two, they can bump Kadri up to the top line and move Bozak out to make room for Colborne.

I would keep the #3 spot open for Colborne, you always have a back-up in McClement, and if Colborne does the job, you just have the best 4th line center in the game in McClement. None of those available 4th line centers peaks my interest really. Saves money also, by not signing an inflated UFA deal on a role player.

EDIT: I'd also trade Liles to save even more cap and keep Fraser with Franson, as that just works.

 

[TML fan]

If it looks like Clarkson is going to make it to UFA, I say trade Grabovski for his rights and use the money on Bozak and Clarkson. Re-sign O'Byrne, and look for one of the many pending UFA centres for the 4th line and Bob's yer uncle.

van Riemsdyk - Bozak - Kessel
Lupul - Kadri - Clarkson
Kulemin - McClement - Frattin
Komarov - * - McLaren

Gunnarsson - Phaneuf
Gardiner - O'Byrne
Liles - Franson

* there are a couple of interesting players who will likely make it to free agency. Mike Zigomanis, Boyd Gordon, Jerred Smithson, Craig Adams, Tim Brent, Scott Nichol, Jeff Halpern, or Marty Reasoner. The Leafs can also look from within.

If the Leafs sign Bozak for 5 years, that'll give them a less than ideal but adequate option at centre while they wait for Colborne. If Colborne is ready for top 6 duties in a year or two, they can bump Kadri up to the top line and move Bozak out to make room for Colborne.

I would keep the #3 spot open for Colborne, you always have a back-up in McClement, and if Colborne does the job, you just have the best 4th line center in the game in McClement. None of those available 4th line centers peaks my interest really. Saves money also, by not signing an inflated UFA deal on a role player.

EDIT: I'd also trade Liles to save even more cap and keep Fraser with Franson, as that just works.

If Colborne isn't ready, then you're just filling the 4th line spot with players who can't really do the job, which kn my opinion is a detriment to the team. If he is ready, then that just means whoever you sign doesn't get to play that much. Those guys won't really be getting big money. They don't have the numbers. The guys I picked out are all pretty good at faceoffs, and each knows their role.

The problem with the Fraser/Franson combo is neither guy is particularly good with the puck. They aren't really capable of making a good first pass, they're both slow in their decision making, and they tend to ice the puck a lot, as has been my observation anyway. Fraser is a nice big body to have but I don't think he's an everyday player.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

If Colborne isn't ready, then you're just filling the 4th line spot with players who can't really do the job, which in my opinion is a detriment to the team.

It could be one of the players you picked out also, but I think you can fill the 4th role from within or also through trade, which is possible. I'm not overly worried about a 4th line center.

I just meant that evaluating Colborne and giving him opportunities right now is important, certainly on the 3rd line and above, he won't be playing 4th line when he's ready.

 

[Champ Kind]

I'm taking my pitiful performance in predicting the team's lineup and saying "Screw you, I'll do what I want!".  So, I am going to bet a large regular that Clarkson ends up in Toronto this summer.  New Jersey has to tear that team down and rebuild and, suddenly (unbelievably?), Toronto is an emerging, competitive team for the forseeable furure.  With some easy moves, capspace will be available and Clarkson comes across as someone who actually wants to play close to home.

And with that, all hope of him signing in Toronto is gone. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm terrified that we overpay for Clarkson and he never comes close to 30 goals again though. I'd be fine with signing him as a 3rd line player for 3rd line money, but he's probably looking for $5mil now.

 

[princedpw]

I have to add:  There is no way Grabbo is bought out this summer.  There is also no way I would ever pay Bozak $5million/year.

 

[Omallley]

I'm terrified that we overpay for Clarkson and he never comes close to 30 goals again though. I'd be fine with signing him as a 3rd line player for 3rd line money, but he's probably looking for $5mil now.

What's the high end you'd be willing to pay for him? 3M? 3.5M?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm terrified that we overpay for Clarkson and he never comes close to 30 goals again though. I'd be fine with signing him as a 3rd line player for 3rd line money, but he's probably looking for $5mil now.

What's the high end you'd be willing to pay for him? 3M? 3.5M?

Pretty much. I obviously know that'll never get the job done though. For two reasons. Like I said, I think he's going to revert back to a 10-15 goal scorer. Maybe not next season, but maybe after that. I don't have any real evidence for that, just a feeling.

Second, even if he never did score 30 goals he could probably get more than $3mil on the open market. Guys like him always get overpaid on July 1st. Just look at Armstrong and Prust. I'm fine with overpaying for a free agent but if I'm going to do it it'll only be for a top line talent.

 

[TML fan]

How much Bozak wants to stay with the team is going to have to factor into his decision. I don't see the Leafs giving him anything over $4 million. He's on pace to reach 20 goals and 50 points for just the first time this season, and that's only a projection. I'm not giving a guy an extra 2 years and 2 mil based on a projection. I don't think the Leafs will either.

If it were me, 3 years at $3.5 mil per. If he wants more years, fine, but I'm not budging on the money.

 

[Champ Kind]

I'm terrified that we overpay for Clarkson and he never comes close to 30 goals again though. I'd be fine with signing him as a 3rd line player for 3rd line money, but he's probably looking for $5mil now.

I think in fairness you sign him for second line money.  Say, split the difference and be in the $4M range?  I think you can reasonably count of 20 goals, and that would look really good on the second line.

 

[Zee]

I'm terrified that we overpay for Clarkson and he never comes close to 30 goals again though. I'd be fine with signing him as a 3rd line player for 3rd line money, but he's probably looking for $5mil now.

I think in fairness you sign him for second line money.  Say, split the difference and be in the $4M range?  I think you can reasonably count of 20 goals, and that would look really good on the second line.

I'm wondering how much the relationship between Kessel and Bozak plays into this.  I realize that hockey players are professionals, but I'm sure they'd like to stick together given that they're living together right now.  I can see them locking up Bozak for 5 years just so Kessel is easier to sign as well.  I wouldn't mind it for the right price.  I say $4M-$4.5 tops for Bozak.

 

[AvroArrow]

How much Bozak wants to stay with the team is going to have to factor into his decision. I don't see the Leafs giving him anything over $4 million. He's on pace to reach 20 goals and 50 points for just the first time this season, and that's only a projection. I'm not giving a guy an extra 2 years and 2 mil based on a projection. I don't think the Leafs will either.

If it were me, 3 years at $3.5 mil per. If he wants more years, fine, but I'm not budging on the money.

This is where I figure, though I'd like to be < 3 M and < 3 years - unlikely, but that's what I'd want.

 

[nutman]

I'm in the 3.5 to 4 mil range five yrs.

 

[Britishbulldog]

I have a longer version of this but here is the condensed one:

I would like to see the 2 top lines kept together:

JVR / Bozak / Kessel
Lupul / Kadri / Kulemin

The 3rd line of MacArthur / Grabvoski / Frattin have 2 players that are overpaid for their role and I wouldn't mind them not being on the Leafs next season.

The 4th line is what it is.  A super goon with not much hockey skill, a large goon who doesn't fight really well but has a little bit of hockey skill and a defensive forward that would play the PK, end of games, etc.

On defense the 2nd and 3rd pairing should be Liles (or Gradiner) / O'Byrne and Fraser / Franson.  The top pairing should be Phaneuf and a top dman traded for.

The Cap is dropping to $64.3 MIL for probably 2 years so the Leafs need to address this with the new contracts that will need to be signed in the next 2 years.  In my opinion those contracts include:

Forwards
Bozak  $4.0 x 5 years (more than Desharnais' $3.5 MIL contract)
Kessel  $6.0 x 8 years (Signed this summer as a 2014 extension - Lupul style discount)
Kadri  $3.5 x 2 years (exact same as Colorado's Duchene)
Komarov  $0.8 x 2 years
McLaren $0.7 x 3 years (more than McGratton)
Orr  $0.7 x 2 years (more than McGratton)
Kulemin  $2.8 x 3 years (2014)
Frattin  $1.2 x 2 years  (2014)
McClement $2.2 x 3 years (2014)

Defense
Phaneuf  $6.0 x 8 years (Signed this summer as a 2014 extension - Lupul style discount)
O'Byrne $2.0 x 3 years
Franson $2.0 x 2 years
Fraser $0.8 x 2 years

Buy out: Mike Komisarek ($4.5m)

Next summer the other 2 buyouts come off the books freeing up $2 MIL for the goalies allowing $3.5 for Reimer and $1 MIL for the backup.

As you can see below that the Cap space is OVER $12 MIL to add a 3rd line winger and 1st pairing dman.

I would look for a UFA 3rd line LW.  I don't think I have seen anyone here talk about Chicago UFAs even though Chicago have only 16 players signed next season for almost $59 MIL leaving them less than $6 MIL to sign 7 players including 27 year old 6'4" 233 lbs Bryan Bickell who at 22 pts (9 goals and 13 assists and 96 hits in 42 games) is going to command a raise on his current $0.541 MIL salary.  27 year old ex-Leaf and speedy 6'3" Stalberg also is a UFA with 9 goals and 13 assists in 42 games and a salary of $0.875 MIL. 

LW UFA :Either Bickell, Stalberg or Ryan 'The Beast' Clowe would be who I would target.  Hopefully one of them would sign at $2.5 - $3.0 MIL on a 4 year contract. With $12 MIL is cap room the Leafs could go as high as $4.0 MIL

Trade Bait for top pairing dman:
Grabovski, Gunnarsson, Liles, probably any of the Marlies forward and defenceman (except Junior aged Reilly).

I would love to see if Colborne could anchor a 3rd line and use Komarov and McClement with a goon on the 4th line but I am just as OK with McClement centering the 3rd line and Komarov centering the 4th line.

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED 2013-2014 ROSTER

FORWARDS
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.000m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($3.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
UFA (up to $4 MIL) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Matt Frattin ($0.925m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Leo Komarov ($0.803m) / Colton Orr ($0.700m)
PB 1 ($0.827m) / PB 2 ($0.600m)

DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) /  up to $8 MIL dman
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Ryan O'Byrne ($2.000m)
Mark Fraser ($0.800m) / Cody Franson ($2.000m)
PB 3 ($0.600m) /

GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
Ben Scrivens ($0.613m)
OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)

------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $52,059,292; BONUSES: $300,000

CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $12,540,708

 

[gilmourthegreat]

I agree with pretty much everything you wrote BB, except I don't think we're getting Kessel for less than 7 million. 6 million is not the market rate anymore for a ppg player with a top-5 wrist shot.

 

[AvroArrow]

My quickly thoughtout offseason plan for forwards:

I'm hoping the Leafs can get Ribeiro in the offseason.  Then, let Bozak walk for the money he will command (unless he comes in < 3M), and move Grabovski (I wish we had time to evaluate him after he fixes his health issues, but we can't wait forever).  If we don't keep Bozak, there will be enough options for 3rd-4th line center between UFA and Marlies.

JVR - Ribeiro - Kessel
Kulemin - Kadri - Lupul
MacArthur - Bozak/UFA/McClement - Frattin
McLaren - McClement/UFA - Orr/Komarov

 

[Britishbulldog]

I agree with pretty much everything you wrote BB, except I don't think we're getting Kessel for less than 7 million. 6 million is not the market rate anymore for a ppg player with a top-5 wrist shot.

Yeah, $7 MIL is closer to reality but I would hope it would lock Kessel up to the max length which would bring him until he was 35. That is still doable.

Just reading the link that cw posted regarding 'What is Tyler Bozak Money?' and saw that Bozak is rated at $2.568 MIL.  Ouch!  I feel that is a bit low.  I would prefer $3.5 MIL but think that $4.0 MIL is closer to reality.

 

[Jalili]

My quickly thoughtout offseason plan for forwards:

I'm hoping the Leafs can get Ribeiro in the offseason.  Then, let Bozak walk for the money he will command (unless he comes in < 3M), and move Grabovski (I wish we had time to evaluate him after he fixes his health issues, but we can't wait forever).  If we don't keep Bozak, there will be enough options for 3rd-4th line center between UFA and Marlies.

JVR - Ribeiro - Kessel
Kulemin - Kadri - Lupul
MacArthur - Bozak/UFA/McClement - Frattin
McLaren - McClement/UFA - Orr/Komarov

I posted here a few years ago that the Leafs should trade for Ribeiro...

People HATED the idea... not sure why? He's a damn good player, might of been a punk in his early days, but it was strange nonetheless considering how bad the team was set up at center.

These days though, he might not be a good option for the team given his age.

 

[AvroArrow]

My quickly thoughtout offseason plan for forwards:

I'm hoping the Leafs can get Ribeiro in the offseason.  Then, let Bozak walk for the money he will command (unless he comes in < 3M), and move Grabovski (I wish we had time to evaluate him after he fixes his health issues, but we can't wait forever).  If we don't keep Bozak, there will be enough options for 3rd-4th line center between UFA and Marlies.

JVR - Ribeiro - Kessel
Kulemin - Kadri - Lupul
MacArthur - Bozak/UFA/McClement - Frattin
McLaren - McClement/UFA - Orr/Komarov

I posted here a few years ago that the Leafs should trade for Ribeiro...

People HATED the idea... not sure why? He's a damn good player, might of been a punk in his early days, but it was strange nonetheless considering how bad the team was set up at center.

These days though, he might not be a good option for the team given his age.

Term of the deal would be a key detail - but he's still producing at 1 ppg.

 

[Peter D.]

With MacT talking about impatience, perhaps he dips into one of his youngsters to address some issues.

Don't know if he would be one available, but hypothetically, would you trade Gardiner + for Eberle?