Your summer 2012 strategy?

[maplesyrup]

I suppose I should probably add that if guys like Armstrong, Connolly, Lombardi etc are still with team next season, that's also fine. They'll be in the last year of their contracts, and if they have decent seasons, they could be valuable at the trade deadline. And, if not, oh well, then they walk in the summer without any leaving the team with any lasting cap implications.  There's no real pressing need to do anything about most of the players people bring up, and most of the suggestions being offered to more damage than doing nothing and letting them play out their contracts.

I don't know... I'm hoping for a faster turnover. I'm praying that two of Connolly, Komisarek, Armstrong, and Lombardi are no longer Leafs by October.

 

[cw]

For starters, I'm not sure I'd look at their roster and chalk up a ton of their success to the young players on the team they've developed.

I don't entirely agree. When you've got 16 drafted players on your roster and they include the starting goalie, the stud dman and the top two forwards plus several other good ones, I'd have to conclude their drafting and development has been key to their success.

That's fine but it's not really a contradiction of what I said there. I didn't say that their drafting/development isn't a key to their success, I said that their success has a lot more to do with their guys in the over-30 crowd then their younger guys.

I think the idea put forth that the Detroit model is self-perpetuating is a good one but it starts with great players at the top.

I agree with Nik.  It took a while before Detriot was able to put in to place the "Detriot model".  It's not like they just drafted a bunch of guys and waited.  They were bad for a number of years, and finally got a franchise player to build around.  After they built around him, the were smart on who they drafted and how long they waited before they brought them in.  Having said that though, I can't imaging what this team would have looked like if Lidstrom, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg had not been drafted.  It begs the question if it was scouting, or drafting/development that molded those players in to the ones that are on the ice today.  If they had been drafted by any other team, would they still have succeeded?

I don't buy the "it took a while" as an excuse for the Leafs. It does take a while but it takes even longer if you never start.

All you have to do is stock the roster with UFAs while the kids go through a proper development. Would the kids brought up sooner be better than some of the UFAs? Maybe but who cares ? Because you're very unlikely to win a Cup anyway until the young core is properly developed and the prospect system is fully stocked.

And again, there are good cap implications with that approach to get better price performance.

Fletcher could have started that on day one of JFJ's departure. And Burke could have trended more that way as well. The only excuse seems to be that everybody is in a rush to take short cuts as they have been the last 45 years. Hopefully, someone catches on in our lifetime.

It doesn't make it impossible to win a Cup when one doesn't do it but it does make it considerably tougher.

I think we are all arguing the same thing.  We all would like the Detroit model, but we wanted it to have been started 5 years ago.  Hey maybe even 7 years ago.  Doesn't mean that they can't start it now, and maybe if they draft an elite player this year, they will have someone they can actually build around.  They still need that elite player to start with though.

I don't think they need an elite player to start. They can start collecting prospects and developing them fully now and somewhere along the way, get some elite guys. The elite guys usually take the shortest amount of time to develop so the timing of the roster coming together is fine and the elite guys are good enough to enhance any developing core.

To Burke's credit, he hasn't been in as much of a hurry as Fletcher was with Schenn but he's obviously still pushing some/in a hurry.

Now if they draft a projected elite guy who is a bust, they can just roll the roster over a little until another elite guy arrives and performs. The prospect system would be teaming with kids on their way to go with the elite acquisitions.

Too often, we see a team get an elite guy and then have little in the system to surround him with (see Mats Sundin for example - or in our current situation, we've only got a couple of years before Kessel is a UFA).

 

[cw]

I don't buy the "it took a while" as an excuse for the Leafs. It does take a while but it takes even longer if you never start.

Nobody is looking to create excuses for the Leafs. I'm as critical as you are of the Leafs failure to look long term. The issue SI and I are talking about is the ability of a team to implement the Detroit model, which is quite different than a Pittsburgh/Chicago kind of rebuild, without first having exceptional talent within the system.

It is how Detroit got started. In the 80s they were a pretty poor club. Devellano had a lot to do with their first & second recent cups. You may recall: "Yzerman couldn't win anything as captain" in the media, etc. They had a time getting over the top.

But a drafted core of Yzerman, Fedorov, Lidstrom, Kozlov, Konstantinov, Holmstrom, Osgood, Lapointe with other lesser/depth drafted players chipping in like Ericksson, Dandenault, Kocur & Knuble was very key to those first couple of cups. And they used other good drafted and developed assets like Primeau for example to get Shanahan or Chiasson to get Vernon.

Once the Wings were at the top with Cup wins, then we might discuss the "Detroit Model" in terms of how they stayed on top - which is to me, really like a phase 2 and more unique in the NHL. I think we'd all like to see the Leafs get phase 1 under their belts first.

Having said that, something like the '97-98 Cup winners, the '08 Wings Cup team had five of the top 7 playoff scorers drafted and developed by the Wings.

All you have to do is stock the roster with UFAs while the kids go through a proper development. Would the kids brought up sooner be better than some of the UFAs? Maybe but who cares ? Because you're very unlikely to win a Cup anyway until the young core is properly developed and the prospect system is fully stocked.

I think that the players themselves care. I think that if you send a guy to the AHL when he'd be better than a guy you're keeping up it'll be discouraging to both him and to the guys on the NHL roster.

Again, this isn't about not drafting/developing. The Leafs need to do that. They need to do that and accumulate a ton of elite level prospects at the very top of their game, the kinds of guys who can play in the NHL as 19-20 year olds. That's not the Detroit model or, at least, hasn't been for 20 years.

Even today, 7 of the Wings 8 top scorers, 5 of their top 7 dmen and their starting goalie were drafted by the Wings with about 16 of their 23 man roster, drafted and developed by the Wings.

Bertuzzi & Stuart came via trade of draft assets. Ian White & Dan Cleary are the only two notable UFAs on the roster that I quickly saw.

So the point is, that phase 2 under the cap system for the Wings is even more reliant on drafting and development than they were before the new CBA.

If a team acquires elite young players in year three of that program or year six or whenever, I don't think it matters as much. They won't be Cup competitive until they get those elite players. And just as importantly, they won't be Cup competitive with those elite players unless they have some good young complimentary and cap-cost-effective talent drafted and developed to play with them.

To me, the issue of when to get elite players vs other drafted talent is a bit if a chicken and egg debate. Both need to happen and at this point, it doesn't really matter which a team starts with as long as they wind up with both at roughly the same time.

As for making a player wait, it certainly didn't hurt Kronwall. And I think Luke Schenn would have been better off without leaping straight into the NHL - both in terms of his cap cost and in terms of his confidence & development. Obviously, you're not going to bury Sid Crosby but the vast majority of NHL players are rarely harmed by some seasoning after the draft. You rarely hear the complaint "oh, we brought him up from the minors too late!"

 

[Kin]

Once the Wings were at the top with Cup wins, then we might discuss the "Detroit Model" in terms of how they stayed on top - which is to me, really like a phase 2 and more unique in the NHL. I think we'd all like to see the Leafs get phase 1 under their belts first.

That's where I am more or less. My initial post was really about my perception that some here were sort of arguing that the Leafs needed to jump right to that Phase 2 of Detroit's success without first concentrating on that initial influx of talent. Some of which, like Yzerman and Primeau, were guys who got drafted and immediately put on the big league club.

Then, of course, the discussion becomes the best way to start collecting that sort of talent. Not to get overly moneyball but I think it's clear that part of what the Wings did so brilliantly was the way they took advantage of the existing prejudice/lack of knowledge/uncertain immigration status of european players at the time. They were able to draft generational talent in the third and fourth round. That's a lot harder to do in this day and age and it's why some smart teams, with good drafting and development programs, go the way of Chicago and Pittsburgh.

Having said that, something like the '97-98 Cup winners, the '08 Wings Cup team had five of the top 7 playoff scorers drafted and developed by the Wings.

Sure but, again, nobody is disputing the idea that drafting and development aren't important parts of the process, probably the most important part, or that the Wings weren't terrific at it. 

To me, the issue of when to get elite players vs other drafted talent is a bit if a chicken and egg debate. Both need to happen and at this point, it doesn't really matter which a team starts with as long as they wind up with both at roughly the same time.

I don't think that's the issue or, at least, that's not a disagreement here. The issue, as I see it, is how the Leafs can best accumulate that talent that they need. I don't think you can really emulate what Detroit did in the late 80's/early 90's. As you say though, that doesn't make it any less necessary, it just makes the way to do it less clear.

As for making a player wait, it certainly didn't hurt Kronwall.

But let's use him as an example. If you have a talented young defenseman like Kronwall and you bring him into a dressing room like the ones Kronwall would have been brought into in his first few camps I think there's a message that a smart young player will get that's unavoidable. If the dressing room is filled with guys like Lidstrom and Chelios and so on then a guy in Kronwall's position will probably get the message that his talent isn't going to be sufficient in and of itself. He'll have to match that talent with hard work in order to earn a place on a team that good. If, without saying it, the message is clear that everything is earned and excellence is expected you're going to see, I think, a lot of hard work by your younger players.

I don't think that's something that you can just emulate or adopt by means of a mission statement or roster moves. If young Niklas Kronwall walked into the Leafs dressing room next camp he wouldn't necessarily be wrong in thinking his talent alone could win him a spot on the roster. I don't know how you communicate that excellence is required beyond a speech that would be similar to one every prospect probably hear's at every camp for every team in every league.

Sure, you can still send him down to work on his game and that might be the best decision in the long run but I can't help but think that there will be some young players who'll take that as a sign that spots aren't necessarily earned by who's best and that their demotion is sort of a pro forma step before he's eventually being given a spot on the roster similar to the veterans he's already better than.

I forget where but Gretzky has said that one of the things that really helped him continually improve was the quality of guys he was going up against in practice. That also has to be a factor when examining this "phase 2".

So it's not that I'm saying a team shouldn't be patient or that drafting/development aren't fundamental keys to a team's emergence, I'm just trying to make the point that in a case like Detroit their sustained level of talent and achievement at the NHL level is a part of their developmental process and that it feeds on itself.

And I think Luke Schenn would have been better off without leaping straight into the NHL - both in terms of his cap cost and in terms of his confidence & development. Obviously, you're not going to bury Sid Crosby but the vast majority of NHL players are rarely harmed by some seasoning after the draft. You rarely hear the complaint "oh, we brought him up from the minors too late!"

This isn't something I necessarily disagree with but this is a spot where we're sort of dwelling in the unknown. I think if a player comes up at a young age and struggles the conventional wisdom is to talk about bringing him up too early. But the flip side, the guy who gets a ton of development time but never amounts to much(which is probably just as prevalent), is sort of written off as a guy simply not having what it takes. I don't know that's right in either case. I'm sure some guys who get brought up too early wouldn't have made it regardless and I think some guys do get stunted and lazy in the AHL.

 

[rdowdall]

I don't think they need an elite player to start. They can start collecting prospects and developing them fully now and somewhere along the way, get some elite guys. The elite guys usually take the shortest amount of time to develop so the timing of the roster coming together is fine and the elite guys are good enough to enhance any developing core.

I think they have some nice complimentary pieces in place.  My fear is that they have enough complimentary pieces in place to be competitive.  The more competitive they become, the harder it will be for them to draft that elite player.  I realize that you can draft elite players later in the first round, or even in later rounds, but that is trickier to do. 

To Burke's credit, he hasn't been in as much of a hurry as Fletcher was with Schenn but he's obviously still pushing some/in a hurry.

Some of that though is the age of the players.  Frattin and Gardiner are 24 and 21.  24 is a little old to still be considered a prospect, and 21 is usually when you start to cut your teeth in the NHL.  Colborne at 22 and still in the AHL kind of concerns me.  I am not sure what holes he still has in his game, but if he isn't starting to crack the NHL roster at this point, it probably means his upside is more of a bottom 6 player.  Nothing wrong with that, but at this point it would have been nice if he was that elusive big first line centre that the team needs.

Now if they draft a projected elite guy who is a bust, they can just roll the roster over a little until another elite guy arrives and performs. The prospect system would be teaming with kids on their way to go with the elite acquisitions.

I think the problem is that any mistake at this point is catastrophic for the organization from a perception point of view.  This team is considered a joke in most corners.  I think this franchise needs to hit a home run in this draft.  If they don't it is a major setback.

Too often, we see a team get an elite guy and then have little in the system to surround him with (see Mats Sundin for example - or in our current situation, we've only got a couple of years before Kessel is a UFA).

I really don't see Kessel as an elite player.  I see him as more of a Mogilny type.  He is a really good player, but I don't think he is the type that can change the course of the franchise throughout a year.  I don't think he is the type of player that can win a playoff series.  Sundin could alter a season, or a series. 

 

[bustaheims]

I don't know... I'm hoping for a faster turnover. I'm praying that two of Connolly, Komisarek, Armstrong, and Lombardi are no longer Leafs by October.

I agree, but, I'm just saying that forcing the issue with things like buyouts or adding assets to them just to get rid of them does more lasting damage than just letting them play it out.

 

[maplesyrup]

I don't know... I'm hoping for a faster turnover. I'm praying that two of Connolly, Komisarek, Armstrong, and Lombardi are no longer Leafs by October.

I agree, but, I'm just saying that forcing the issue with things like buyouts or adding assets to them just to get rid of them does more lasting damage than just letting them play it out.

Agreed. This is where my hope that the term left on a couple of these guys deals are in some way more attractive to other teams this summer than similar (or even lesser) available UFAs. Now, with that said, I suppose you could deal with at least one of these deals by burying it in the minors. Finger comes off the books so it would just be a replacement.  I'm sure one of the remaining three deals could be dealt with without doing any lasting damage.     

 

[Hurricane]

I'm surprised there isn't more discussion about Thomas Vokoun.  It may just be that given the discounted contract he signed last season with the Caps, no one believes he would come to Toronto, but assuming he would sign with the Leafs, is there anyone out there who would be against the signing?  I guess it all depends on price and term, but even assuming something big like 3 years at $5 million (which may be well more than they need to spend given the recent market for goalies)?

 

[Bender]

I'm surprised there isn't more discussion about Thomas Vokoun.  It may just be that given the discounted contract he signed last season with the Caps, no one believes he would come to Toronto, but assuming he would sign with the Leafs, is there anyone out there who would be against the signing?  I guess it all depends on price and term, but even assuming something big like 3 years at $5 million (which may be well more than they need to spend given the recent market for goalies)?

Doesn't he have some kind of injury? Besides, he's as short term as they come. No thanks.

 

[Hurricane]

I'm surprised there isn't more discussion about Thomas Vokoun.  It may just be that given the discounted contract he signed last season with the Caps, no one believes he would come to Toronto, but assuming he would sign with the Leafs, is there anyone out there who would be against the signing?  I guess it all depends on price and term, but even assuming something big like 3 years at $5 million (which may be well more than they need to spend given the recent market for goalies)?

Doesn't he have some kind of injury? Besides, he's as short term as they come. No thanks.

He does have a groin injury, but my understanding is that it shouldn't keep him from playing next season.

So you would rather trade assets for someone less proven?

 

[cw]

I'm surprised there isn't more discussion about Thomas Vokoun.  It may just be that given the discounted contract he signed last season with the Caps, no one believes he would come to Toronto, but assuming he would sign with the Leafs, is there anyone out there who would be against the signing?  I guess it all depends on price and term, but even assuming something big like 3 years at $5 million (which may be well more than they need to spend given the recent market for goalies)?

Doesn't he have some kind of injury? Besides, he's as short term as they come. No thanks.

He does have a groin injury, but my understanding is that it shouldn't keep him from playing next season.

So you would rather trade assets for someone less proven?

In theory, the suggestion makes lots of sense.

Vokoun signed a very low contract with the Caps for the chance to win a Cup. I think many don't feel his addition to the Leafs would turn them into a true contender. Therefore, expectations seem to be that if he doesn't try it with the Caps again, he'd go somewhere where he's got a good shot and that isn't likely to be Toronto.

He seems to be someone who has made a bundle and a Cup win now seems more important to him at this stage of his career.

 

[Hurricane]

I'm surprised there isn't more discussion about Thomas Vokoun.  It may just be that given the discounted contract he signed last season with the Caps, no one believes he would come to Toronto, but assuming he would sign with the Leafs, is there anyone out there who would be against the signing?  I guess it all depends on price and term, but even assuming something big like 3 years at $5 million (which may be well more than they need to spend given the recent market for goalies)?

Doesn't he have some kind of injury? Besides, he's as short term as they come. No thanks.

He does have a groin injury, but my understanding is that it shouldn't keep him from playing next season.

So you would rather trade assets for someone less proven?

In theory, the suggestion makes lots of sense.

Vokoun signed a very low contract with the Caps for the chance to win a Cup. I think many don't feel his addition to the Leafs would turn them into a true contender. Therefore, expectations seem to be that if he doesn't try it with the Caps again, he'd go somewhere where he's got a good shot and that isn't likely to be Toronto.

He seems to be someone who has made a bundle and a Cup win now seems more important to him at this stage of his career.

I agree.  The lack of discussion had me thinking there might be some other reason I was overlooking. 

Talent and experience wise, I think he is exactly what the team needs.

 

[cw]

Talent and experience wise, I think he is exactly what the team needs.

Yep. In every other way, he'd be the best proven candidate on the UFA market.

 

[sonyu66]

What about trying to trade for either Halak or Elliott from St-Louis ?

 

[Corn Flake]

What about trying to trade for either Halak or Elliott from St-Louis ?

Halak has been mentioned... assumption is Elliott is who they would stick with going forward, although a good chance they will keep both. 

Vokoun might work as well on a short-term deal.  Burke may / should take the approach of having that stable veteran in place until we are 200% sure whichever kid is coming in behind is ready to take over.

Scrivens I think is making a very strong case for himself, and a long AHL playoff run might vault him into backup consideration, which might mean thinking about moving Reimer ... maybe in that deal Burke got offered.

 

[caver]

What about trying to trade for either Halak or Elliott from St-Louis ?

Halak has been mentioned... assumption is Elliott is who they would stick with going forward, although a good chance they will keep both. 

Vokoun might work as well on a short-term deal.  Burke may / should take the approach of having that stable veteran in place until we are 200% sure whichever kid is coming in behind is ready to take over.

Scrivens I think is making a very strong case for himself, and a long AHL playoff run might vault him into backup consideration, which might mean thinking about moving Reimer ... maybe in that deal Burke got offered.

Agreed that Burke needs to get a veteran goalie. Vokoun would do. Biron would do. There must be others available too. I think if this year's team gets even average NHL caliber goaltending then they make the playoffs.

 

[Bullfrog]

Strictly a gut feeling, but I see Burke trading one of Kessel or Phaneuf this summer (I'm leaning towards the latter).

My gut feeling is they're both here to stay. I doubt very highly that either of them gets traded.

 

[riff raff]

What about trying to trade for either Halak or Elliott from St-Louis ?

Halak has been mentioned... assumption is Elliott is who they would stick with going forward, although a good chance they will keep both. 

Vokoun might work as well on a short-term deal.  Burke may / should take the approach of having that stable veteran in place until we are 200% sure whichever kid is coming in behind is ready to take over.

Scrivens I think is making a very strong case for himself, and a long AHL playoff run might vault him into backup consideration, which might mean thinking about moving Reimer ... maybe in that deal Burke got offered.

Agreed that Burke needs to get a veteran goalie. Vokoun would do. Biron would do. There must be others available too. I think if this year's team gets even average NHL caliber goaltending then they make the playoffs.

I'm concerned about people's fixation on a 'veteran' goalie, as if the age and experience of the goalie is the answer.

The Leafs need someone who can stop the puck. That is all. If they find two 18-year-olds who can do that, I think they should go all in.

It's ability - not age or experience - that should matter.

 

[Optimus Reimer]

More than they need the goalies to stop the puck, they need a better defensive system.  A better defensive system will reduce the number of SOG and hopefully GA and will result in more/better offence.  Even if they sign a decent goalie, if the team can't get the puck out of their end efficiently, there will be more scoring changes against which would put pressure on the goalie to make those extra saves.

 

[riff raff]

More than they need the goalies to stop the puck, they need a better defensive system.  A better defensive system will reduce the number of SOG and hopefully GA and will result in more/better offence.  Even if they sign a decent goalie, if the team can't get the puck out of their end efficiently, there will be more scoring changes against which would put pressure on the goalie to make those extra saves.

Yes that's it.

Also, the team should be better.