Your summer 2012 strategy?

[Corn Flake]

What about trying to trade for either Halak or Elliott from St-Louis ?

Halak has been mentioned... assumption is Elliott is who they would stick with going forward, although a good chance they will keep both. 

Vokoun might work as well on a short-term deal.  Burke may / should take the approach of having that stable veteran in place until we are 200% sure whichever kid is coming in behind is ready to take over.

Scrivens I think is making a very strong case for himself, and a long AHL playoff run might vault him into backup consideration, which might mean thinking about moving Reimer ... maybe in that deal Burke got offered.

Agreed that Burke needs to get a veteran goalie. Vokoun would do. Biron would do. There must be others available too. I think if this year's team gets even average NHL caliber goaltending then they make the playoffs.

I'm concerned about people's fixation on a 'veteran' goalie, as if the age and experience of the goalie is the answer.

The Leafs need someone who can stop the puck. That is all. If they find two 18-year-olds who can do that, I think they should go all in.

It's ability - not age or experience - that should matter.

If that is true then why are so many highly skilled goalies with plenty of ability getting run over in this town (and other towns too but we know it's happened a lot here)?? 

Age isn't important, but experience is. It is with all players on all teams in all sports.  That "been there done that" is what drives teams to win. If it was just about ability there would be teams loaded with skilled kids winning all the time.  Experience counts huge and gets you through the rough times, knowing they will get better and knowing how to tell yourself you don't suck.

I keep saying it but Jiggy was a great example of why having the wise veteran there to keep the kid calm.  Reimer had all the skill in the world but last year still took some heavy losses.. he was able to bounce back after a bad game or even a bad goal and a large part of that I think was Giguere's coaching. 

You can't go with two inexperienced goalies.  Its way too high risk and it cost the Leafs a lot of wins this year.

 

[drummond]

More than they need the goalies to stop the puck, they need a better defensive system.  A better defensive system will reduce the number of SOG and hopefully GA and will result in more/better offence.  Even if they sign a decent goalie, if the team can't get the puck out of their end efficiently, there will be more scoring changes against which would put pressure on the goalie to make those extra saves.

I agree they need a stabilizing force on denfence, a real stay at home type. I do hope Korbinian Holzer is that type of player, keeping it simple, tough to play against, clearing the rebounds. I do not want them to sign overprized UFA. We end up with another Komisarek who was supposed to do exactely that.
Ideally each pairing should have offensive minded guy and defensive minded guy. We have enough offensively orientated guys - Gardiner, Phaneuf, Lilles. Gunnar and Schenn both partly fill the defensive aspect. But real rock is needed.

 

[riff raff]

What about trying to trade for either Halak or Elliott from St-Louis ?

Halak has been mentioned... assumption is Elliott is who they would stick with going forward, although a good chance they will keep both. 

Vokoun might work as well on a short-term deal.  Burke may / should take the approach of having that stable veteran in place until we are 200% sure whichever kid is coming in behind is ready to take over.

Scrivens I think is making a very strong case for himself, and a long AHL playoff run might vault him into backup consideration, which might mean thinking about moving Reimer ... maybe in that deal Burke got offered.

Agreed that Burke needs to get a veteran goalie. Vokoun would do. Biron would do. There must be others available too. I think if this year's team gets even average NHL caliber goaltending then they make the playoffs.

I'm concerned about people's fixation on a 'veteran' goalie, as if the age and experience of the goalie is the answer.

The Leafs need someone who can stop the puck. That is all. If they find two 18-year-olds who can do that, I think they should go all in.

It's ability - not age or experience - that should matter.

If that is true then why are so many highly skilled goalies with plenty of ability getting run over in this town (and other towns too but we know it's happened a lot here)?? 

Age isn't important, but experience is. It is with all players on all teams in all sports.  That "been there done that" is what drives teams to win. If it was just about ability there would be teams loaded with skilled kids winning all the time.  Experience counts huge and gets you through the rough times, knowing they will get better and knowing how to tell yourself you don't suck.

I keep saying it but Jiggy was a great example of why having the wise veteran there to keep the kid calm.  Reimer had all the skill in the world but last year still took some heavy losses.. he was able to bounce back after a bad game or even a bad goal and a large part of that I think was Giguere's coaching. 

You can't go with two inexperienced goalies.  Its way too high risk and it cost the Leafs a lot of wins this year.

The Leafs need goalies who can stop the puck.

What you are talking about is a veteran goalie to act as mentor. If they get a veteran who can stop the puck and act as a mentor, then great.

But, if you are honest, you have to admit that although Giguere was undoubtedly a great guy and a good mentor for Reimer, he didn't do a good enough job of stopping the puck when he played.

Also, really, 'mentoring' and 'coaching' is the job of the goalie coach, not the 'veteran goalie' on the roster.

As I've said before, I don't care how old the goalie is, or how much experience he has, if he can stop the puck on a consistent basis.

I understand that people look to a veteran because there is evidence that they have stopped the puck elsewhere. There are, however, no guarantees they will stop the puck in Toronto. For some reason, the Leaf goal crease has become a black hole.

Reminder: Giguere was a veteran; Toskala was a veteran; Raycroft was a veteran.

They need someone to stop the puck.

 

[freer]

I hope they keep Kessel.

I see a goalie coming our way.
I also see some on the Defense being traded, Franson or Schenn. (Komi Please)

I would like to see Dion gone, but I dont see another team taking his contract.

Please get rid of Armstrong. I find it funny how our winning stopped when he came back from injury. It is probably just my opinion there. (maybe just buy him out, or play him in the "A")

I like Steckel, Crabb. Connelly is not the right fit IMO to play on that line. Maybe they will trade him at the Draft.

 

[Corn Flake]

They need someone to stop the puck.

You don't say.  Now comes the hard part.... which goalie gives you the best chance at the puck stopping part.  That's what we are attempting to discuss. 

 

[Corn Flake]

Strictly a gut feeling, but I see Burke trading one of Kessel or Phaneuf this summer (I'm leaning towards the latter).

My gut feeling is they're both here to stay. I doubt very highly that either of them gets traded.

I have a funny feeling that Kessel is going to quietly ask for a trade.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Strictly a gut feeling, but I see Burke trading one of Kessel or Phaneuf this summer (I'm leaning towards the latter).

My gut feeling is they're both here to stay. I doubt very highly that either of them gets traded.

I feel thee same.

 

[caver]

I understand that people look to a veteran because there is evidence that they have stopped the puck elsewhere. There are, however, no guarantees they will stop the puck in Toronto. For some reason, the Leaf goal crease has become a black hole.

Reminder: Giguere was a veteran; Toskala was a veteran; Raycroft was a veteran.

They need someone to stop the puck.

(Quote)

i think the point here is that veterans usually exhibit more consistency. Because veterans have the experience, the "wheels coming off" is less likely to happen. Young players can get rattled and lose their game more easily then a vet. The Leafs are experiencing it at all positions during this collapse. When it happens in net it is more glaring than any other position. Thus, the outcry for a veteran goalie.

excuse the computer-illiterate attempt to quote part of a message...

 

[riff raff]

I understand that people look to a veteran because there is evidence that they have stopped the puck elsewhere. There are, however, no guarantees they will stop the puck in Toronto. For some reason, the Leaf goal crease has become a black hole.

Reminder: Giguere was a veteran; Toskala was a veteran; Raycroft was a veteran.

They need someone to stop the puck.

(Quote)

i think the point here is that veterans usually exhibit more consistency. Because veterans have the experience, the "wheels coming off" is less likely to happen. Young players can get rattled and lose their game more easily then a vet. The Leafs are experiencing it at all positions during this collapse. When it happens in net it is more glaring than any other position. Thus, the outcry for a veteran goalie.

excuse the computer-illiterate attempt to quote part of a message...

I know what people are saying, and I agree with it - to a point.

It's just that I'm seeing an emphasis on a 'veteran' as if that experience will solve all goaltending problems.

Our recent 'experience' as fans shows us that that is not necessarily the case.

Martin Biron is mentioned a lot as a possibility. He strikes me as a great guy and a great teammate. He always has a smile on his face. He would probably be a great mentor for a younger goalie. Right now, he is having a pretty good year backing up Lundqvist in New York. Of course, New York is a pretty good team.

Biron's save % is .906 - GAA - 2.38 (20 games)
Gustavsson's save % is .902 - GAA - 2.92 (42 games)

Now I see GAA as often a reflection of the play of the team in front of the goalie as much as the goalie, but the save % is more of an indication of the goalie's effectiveness (although not fool proof).

So, Biron, on a much better team has a save % .004 better than Gus. One of our many math whizzes can extrapolate how much of a difference that would make over the course of a season.

Under no circumstances am I suggesting that the Leafs should be continuing with Gus, only that there is more to it than 'veteran presence'.

 

[Kin]

Personally, I'm of the opinion that the starts/cap space would be wasted if given to some career back-up. Reimer's play this year has raised enough questions for me that hiring a back-up goalie for the expressed purpose of mentoring him seems ridiculous. I say, the team has a bunch of goalies who've played well at the AHL level, let's give them the keys and hope one of them emerges next year. Worst thing that happens is the team sucks and you end up with another good pick. The 5 or 10 extra points a veteran back-up will give you will probably leave the team just as mediocre, just as in need of a legit #1 but with a worse pick.

 

[maplesyrup]

Personally, I'm of the opinion that the starts/cap space would be wasted if given to some career back-up. Reimer's play this year has raised enough questions for me that hiring a back-up goalie for the expressed purpose of mentoring him seems ridiculous. I say, the team has a bunch of goalies who've played well at the AHL level, let's give them the keys and hope one of them emerges next year. Worst thing that happens is the team sucks and you end up with another good pick. The 5 or 10 extra points a veteran back-up will give you will probably leave the team just as mediocre, just as in need of a legit #1 but with a worse pick.

It's difficult to argue with that plan. That said,  I don't think MLSE will see it that way. I'm 99% sure the Leafs will upgrade their goaltending in some fashion this summer.

 

[Bullfrog]

I have a funny feeling that Kessel is going to quietly ask for a trade.

Why is that? Carlyle?

 

[Tigger]

Personally, I'm of the opinion that the starts/cap space would be wasted if given to some career back-up. Reimer's play this year has raised enough questions for me that hiring a back-up goalie for the expressed purpose of mentoring him seems ridiculous. I say, the team has a bunch of goalies who've played well at the AHL level, let's give them the keys and hope one of them emerges next year. Worst thing that happens is the team sucks and you end up with another good pick. The 5 or 10 extra points a veteran back-up will give you will probably leave the team just as mediocre, just as in need of a legit #1 but with a worse pick.

Curious, this seems like a different approach than you were thinking about last off season.

 

[ZBBM]

With this season down the drain, what's your initial thinking on the moves Burke should make this summer?  (Dare I add, assuming he's still here?)

Right now my inclination is: blow it up.  Blow it up good.  This team is very, very far from anything worthwhile.  The team that was 28-19-6 on Feb 7 was a frigging mirage, as is now sadly apparent to all.

 

[proteus2000]

With this season down the drain, what's your initial thinking on the moves Burke should make this summer?  (Dare I add, assuming he's still here?)

Right now my inclination is: blow it up.  Blow it up good.  This team is very, very far from anything worthwhile.  The team that was 28-19-6 on Feb 7 was a frigging mirage, as is now sadly apparent to all.

Blowing the team up and aiming for a solid team in 2-4 years is a good idea. However, that is what reasonable gms do in their 1st yr on the job, not in their 5th..unless Burke gets a seal of improvement from ownership, not sure how that could happen, he will go out gun blazing to improve the team for next yr to preserve his job. I hope it happens but the odds are weak...

 

[slapshot]

Blowing up the team is a huge overreaction. That being said a few key pieces are missing. But you are not going to get them by simply shuffling the deck. The biggest thing right now is to move out dead assets and replace them with better ones. Here's how I see it:

Forwards: Needs, two top forwards and Kadri for full-year (unless traded)
Forwards worth a re-run (unless trade in a package).
1. Kessel
2. Lupul
3. Bozak
4. Grabo
5. MacArthur
6. Kulemin
7. Frattin
8. Kadri
9. Steckel
10. Crabb
11. Brown

The Leafs need at least two top forwards, so one of those 11 have to go in a package deal. Gone for sure, have to be Connolly, Lombardi, Armstrong. None of which have played like top six IMO. Colborne is not ready I don't think.

Defence

The need a top pairing d-man to go with Gardiner, pushing Gunner and Phaneuf to 3-4 spot. Could that be Suter, Schultz (not likely from rookie, but perhaps down the road). But who would have thought we'd be talking about Gardiner as top-pairing already? Liles paired with someone for 5-6 spot (Schenn, Franson, Holtzer, Blacker or someone traded for?).
Komi bought out or traded or something. D-needs to get tighter and tougher.

Goaltending: There are quite a few teams with a couple of decent goalies: Blues, Canucks, Kings, Preds, Isles, Wild (Harding UFA). I'm sure Burke will make a deal to resolve this messy situation. Gus is gone, with Reimer and Scrivens battling for back-up role.

So the Leafs are missing about 4 key pieces: a starting goalie, a top shutdown d-man, a first line centre and a power forward.

The strategy goes like this: 1) aim for one key piece via free agency - go hard for a Suter or a Parise (this will probably be the toughest challenge) 2) Add 1 key piece via trade 3) add one key piece via top 5 selection 4) Hope that someone steps up and surprises like Gardiner did.

Realistically, if the Leafs could solve two of those problems, they'd be doing good, a successful summer. However, that would mean they'd have to use stop gap measures to solve the other two, sort of like they tried with Connolly after not getting Richards. They will need to make sure goaltending is one of the piece solved for sure. Priority number 1. Carlyle may be able to mask some of the other issues with more effective coaching. The Leafs also have to hope they have better success with their stop gap measures, that some of those pan out better than the Connolly, Komi and Armstrong did. MacArthur was one UFA that worked out pretty well. A guy like Shane Doan might be a good fit and bring leadership for a year or two until the younger guys gain experience.

I see a few deals this summer. And, I see help on the way. Ross, Biggs, McKegg and this summer's pick. But realistically, I think were looking at 2-3 years before we can truly make some noise. If the goaltending is sorted out and solid for next year, I think the playoffs are certainly doable. I have no problem with Burke's efforts so far, he's not going to succeed on every deal, but in the balance I think we are better off asset wise, even if the points aren't showing yet.

Everyone is saying its four years in his regime, but really only 3 years and a few months. I say by his 5th anniversary, Leafs fans will finally be looking at something to get excited about. We need to get rid of some high priced useless assets (no not Phaneuf or Kessel) and find some better pieces. Then, I think we'll be in good shape. Most of the dead weight contracts expire in a year or two. The longer ones involve players that are actually tradeable like Schenn. 

 

[Corn Flake]

I have a funny feeling that Kessel is going to quietly ask for a trade.

Why is that? Carlyle?

In part, yes.  Other part is I think the scrutiny is getting to be a bit much for him. 

Based on nothing other than observing and a gut feeling.

 

[Corn Flake]

The team won't be blown up but it could use a thorough strip down and overhaul in the mid-section...

Staying:
Kessel 82 freaking points (assuming my theory he will ask for a trade is wrong) but he can't be "the guy" for this team to win.
Lupul.. might be best all-round forward.
Grabbo.. might be the heart and soul of the team.  Would be a good mentor for young Russian draftee.
Frattin .. top six/bottom six tweener. Need those tweeners.
Steckel.. .6th overall in faceoffs.  Needs to be 4th line centre though, not 3rd.
Brown.. only problem with brown is you need 2 of them since he's always hurt.  Needs to stay healthy.
Crabb.. Carlyle seems to love him. May also be a tweener with upside.

Phaneuf... team sv% when he was on the ice was around .945 last I heard.  Can't trash that number.
Gunarsson.. quietly solid, super cheap and efficient. 
Gardiner... looked like he was going to take over games at times in the last 10 games. Something big going on here.
Liles.. I believe he will bounce back. Concussion screwed him up

Scrivens OR Reimer... Scrivens is wavier eligible so they have to keep him or move him.  Hate the idea of going with these two as a pair next year.

Tradeable pieces who have lots of upside but just haven't filled the roles.  Can be used to acquire the missing pieces to better compliment the group above.

Schenn.. eternal patience or use him as a key piece in trade.
Kulemin.. apparently has a lot of trade value. Probably best to use it and not have him become a project.
Bozak .. 47 pts when centering 2 PPG players.  Just not 1st line material, but not 3rd line either.  Time to move on. Has trade value.
Franson..Just doesn't seem to quite have the right instincts to make it work.  Huge talent.  Will go for good return and will probably emerge as a solid top four somewhere else.

Expensive veteran parts that probably should be unloaded, although unlikely:

Komisarek.. I'm betting he stays and Carlyle straightens him out.  I wouldn't eat his contract in a bad trade.
Lombardi.. could pull it together with a full off-season to train, but if there's a chance to move him they should.
Armstrong.. in same boat as Liles but I think something else is up here. He just fell off the face of the earth.
Connolly.. the 1000% guy I would unload without hesitation.  Huge disappointment.  Team like Edmonton might take him when they can't sign anyone else to go there.

Players I'm just not sure should stay or not:

MacArthur... He probably stays but if rumor of 1st round pick value is true, trade him.  If he was 4" taller he would be the big power forward this team needs.


NEEDS:

1. 1st line centre, bigger the better but playmaker who can run with Kessel & Lupul is priority.
2. 3rd line centre
3. 3rd line winger with plenty of size and jam
4. veteran backup/tandem starting goalie with LOTS of been-there-done-that winning experience
5. 2nd line winger
6. calm, collected stay at home d-man.

I think internally, items #2 #5 and #6 could be filled by Colborne, Kadri and Holzer respectively, but the other 3 items will have to come from elsewhere.  They have to bring in some experience, some leadership to help Phaneuf and they have to get the physical play ramped up big time.

 

[Kin]

Personally, I'm of the opinion that the starts/cap space would be wasted if given to some career back-up. Reimer's play this year has raised enough questions for me that hiring a back-up goalie for the expressed purpose of mentoring him seems ridiculous. I say, the team has a bunch of goalies who've played well at the AHL level, let's give them the keys and hope one of them emerges next year. Worst thing that happens is the team sucks and you end up with another good pick. The 5 or 10 extra points a veteran back-up will give you will probably leave the team just as mediocre, just as in need of a legit #1 but with a worse pick.

Curious, this seems like a different approach than you were thinking about last off season.

Last year I thought the team was on the right track and building towards something definite. This year I'm fairly well convinced that when the Leafs are competitive again they'll have a different core than what we see right now anyway so you can take the riskier approach.

 

[Tigger]

Last year I thought the team was on the right track and building towards something definite. This year I'm fairly well convinced that when the Leafs are competitive again they'll have a different core than what we see right now anyway so you can take the riskier approach.

I'd probably go the way you're suggesting, Burke won't, though I don't think the 'core' is quite as grim as that. If there was a creative, not hugely expensive, way to get a younger better goalie I'd be interested in that too.