2019 Toronto Maple Leafs Offseason Discussion

[CarltonTheBear]

Bob McKenzie saying Leafs are bringing back Hainsey on a one year deal.

Unless I'm mistaken, he never said this. He just raised the possibility of the Leafs trying to bring him back on a cheap deal.

 

[Kin]

Also, just to be clear, the idea of every single team having 4 guys earning 50%(or more) of the cap is not a real possibility. That is the modern equivalent of teams having 4 guys earning 10 million per.

In order for there to be 4 of those guys per team,  there'd need to be 128 guys leaguewide of that ability. Right now there are 16 guys in the entire league with cap hits of even 9 million or more. Alex Goligoski, at 5.475 per, is at 131st in the league.

There simply aren't that many guys to go around. The Leafs are extremely fortunate to have three of them.

 

[jdh1]

  I,m wondering if the Leafs have to part with some major pieces.I can,t see this working out to a serious cup contender as it appears right now.

For example if Marner gets a big offer from another club.Maybe they have to get their 4 first rounders and move on.Use that room to get some defence and a cheaper wingers.  Without him they would still have their 3 main centers to build the team around.

How about if one of the teams doing the offer-sheeting happens to be this one:

https://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/hickey-on-hockey-5

  That would be something if it was Montreal. There could be a sleeper team or two that might give a big offer.  The deal with Marner needs to be done sooner than later  to bring some clarity in this off season.

 

[princedpw]

I don?t think Marner is an offer sheet threat because it is too difficult to contend for a significant period of time without your next 4 first round picks and I think the leafs would match any offer that comes in lower than that.

But if the Marner negotiations drag out, offer sheets to Kapanen and Johnsson make a ton of sense. Both guys are currently better than 90% of the 2nd round picks will be in 5 years.  So I think many teams have the cap space and the picks to improve via an offer that improves the team now and in the future.

Basically, it would be really nice if Rantanen and the other RFAs sign first to further help narrow the potential price range for Marner.  I wouldn?t be surprised if none of them really want to go first though.

It will be interesting to see what the leafs do at the draft.  It wouldn?t surprise me at all to see one of Johnsson or Kapanen traded there.

 

[ZBBM]

Yeah I hadn't thought of that. Offload Kappi or Mango + something and recoup a first.  Sort of a proactive self- offer- sheeting.

 

[Kin]

But if the Marner negotiations drag out, offer sheets to Kapanen and Johnsson make a ton of sense. Both guys are currently better than 90% of the 2nd round picks will be in 5 years.  So I think many teams have the cap space and the picks to improve via an offer that improves the team now and in the future.

There's still the fundamental problem of offer sheets though. Either the offer is too high, in which case the team offering it is making a bad decision, or the offer is a fair or even good price in which case the Leafs are probably better off matching it and trading the player themselves.

There's a really good reason we don't see many offer sheets despite teams often being in tricky spots financially. GMs know it's a bad business to be in.

 

[bustaheims]

There's still the fundamental problem of offer sheets though. Either the offer is too high, in which case the team offering it is making a bad decision, or the offer is a fair or even good price in which case the Leafs are probably better off matching it and trading the player themselves.

There's a really good reason we don't see many offer sheets despite teams often being in tricky spots financially. GMs know it's a bad business to be in.

The issue there is they won't be able to trade them for 12 months after matching the offer sheet. They'd need to be proactive about it.

 

[Kin]

The issue there is they won't be able to trade them for 12 months after matching the offer sheet. They'd need to be proactive about it.

Right, I was speaking more in the general sense about the problems with offer sheets and why we don't see too many of them. Unless we're working under the assumption that Kapanen/Johnsson get offersheeted at a price that the Leafs simply can't make work under the cap but, to me at least, that goes back to the "too high, bad decision" category.

If teams out there are really going to try and come up with a number there which is specifically designed to make the Leafs unable to match then god bless them but that still seems like making a decision that inflates RFA salaries for everyone for a fairly minimal return.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

If teams out there are really going to try and come up with a number there which is specifically designed to make the Leafs unable to match then god bless them but that still seems like making a decision that inflates RFA salaries for everyone for a fairly minimal return.

Exactly. The GM's are in the business of winning. That's a definite. But using the method being suggested, the GM is only screwing himself and the other 30 general managers in the end. That and why would any GM deal with a guy who just purposely held a gun to your head? I mean, he may not need you today, but there's a good chance that, in the not so distant future, he will need to make a deal with you.

 

[Kin]

Exactly. The GM's are in the business of winning. That's a definite. But using the method being suggested, the GM is only screwing himself and the other 30 general managers in the end. That and why would any GM deal with a guy who just purposely held a gun to your head? I mean, he may not need you today, but there's a good chance that, in the not so distant future, he will need to make a deal with you.

I don't think teams would begrudge an offer sheet in good faith. Teams still dealt with Philly after their Weber offer sheet and Calgary after they did it with O'Reilly.

Thing is, those guys were still pretty big prizes. I like Kapanen and Johnsson but I have to think that most teams out there basically have their version of those guys and they don't want to see the prices on them rise.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Exactly. The GM's are in the business of winning. That's a definite. But using the method being suggested, the GM is only screwing himself and the other 30 general managers in the end. That and why would any GM deal with a guy who just purposely held a gun to your head? I mean, he may not need you today, but there's a good chance that, in the not so distant future, he will need to make a deal with you.

I don't think teams would begrudge an offer sheet in good faith. Teams still dealt with Philly after their Weber offer sheet and Calgary after they did it with O'Reilly.

Thing is, those guys were still pretty big prizes. I like Kapanen and Johnsson but I have to think that most teams out there basically have their version of those guys and they don't want to see the prices on them rise.

If done in good faith, no..that's just part of the business. It's a route a GM can take. It may piss the other guy off, but a move they would understand. Offersheeting someone just to screw the other guy over may garner a different reaction.

 

[disco]

Looking back at the playoffs and the last two teams standing, I was thinking the Leafs in it's current incarnation stack up fine against any other team; the Tampas, the San Joses, the St. Louis'... anyone not named Boston. And even them they play to 7 games. The Leafs may be much, much closer than it appears.

 

[princedpw]

But if the Marner negotiations drag out, offer sheets to Kapanen and Johnsson make a ton of sense. Both guys are currently better than 90% of the 2nd round picks will be in 5 years.  So I think many teams have the cap space and the picks to improve via an offer that improves the team now and in the future.

There's still the fundamental problem of offer sheets though. Either the offer is too high, in which case the team offering it is making a bad decision, or the offer is a fair or even good price in which case the Leafs are probably better off matching it and trading the player themselves.

There's a really good reason we don't see many offer sheets despite teams often being in tricky spots financially. GMs know it's a bad business to be in.

I agree that this is true of almost all offer sheets, but not, I think, in this case.  Here, the leafs have a bunch of high-value contracts (Matthews, Nylander, ... Reilly, Kadri) and a couple of bad, unmoveable (or difficult-to-move: Marleau, Zaitsev) ones.  There are other teams in the league that are in quite a different situation. 

So the leafs may not be able to afford a (for example) $3.5 million Kappy (without displacing a contract they prefer on their team to that one) but another team can afford it (they don?t have a roster full of contracts that they would prefer to that one and they also can?t fill up that roster on the UFA market).  Things are kind of doubly irritating because the leafs contract situation seems temporary due to the Marleau deal ? aside from 19-20, the leafs can afford a 3.5 million Kappy and would have a better roster for having him.

So anyway, just calling it a ?bad contract? doesn?t seem to describe the situation so well.

Edit: maybe the shorter summary is a multi-year 3.5 kappy contract is ?bad? for the leafs next year, but only next year and would be good in the following years. It would also be ?good? for many other teams in the league.  The contract is sufficiently ?good? that it has more value than a 2nd rounder IMHO for the leafs and plenty of other teams.

It?s very rare that teams really get stuck unable to hold on to  such ?mostly good? contracts and are unhappy with the compensation for them.  That?s why offer sheets almost never happen.

 

[princedpw]

Looking back at the playoffs and the last two teams standing, I was thinking the Leafs in it's current incarnation stack up fine against any other team; the Tampas, the San Joses, the St. Louis'... anyone not named Boston. And even them they play to 7 games. The Leafs may be much, much closer than it appears.

Looking back on the playoffs, I?d say there is a heck of a lot of random chance involved and anybody can beat anybody. The leafs could have beaten Boston but might have lost to Columbus. Sigh.

 

[herman]

The Reason Connor Brown is Now Expendable
https://theathletic.com/996642/2019/05/29/trevor-moores-impressive-marlies-chapter-has-turned-him-into-a-model-for-the-franchise/

Keefe has developed a lot of players over his now four seasons behind the Toronto Marlies? bench, but the growth of Moore has been particularly nice to watch because of just how far he has come. When it comes to first-round picks, organizations are invested in their success and the expectations are high. Expectations for an undrafted prospect are different.

In their exit meeting, Keefe told Moore that much: Moore?s path had become the model and Keefe wanted him to know that.

?You get players that are on different paths that end up here. When you get players such as Trevor Moore, an undrafted free agent who comes in and struggles in his first year and even in his second year is a healthy scratch in the first half of the season a little bit, and you see him find his way and never look back, that?s a fun process to be a part of,? Keefe said.

?The credit goes to Trevor for believing in himself and just deciding to come to work every single day and bring a level of consistency that really becomes the model around here.?

From development camp invite to NHL playoff 4th line goal scorer.

 

[ZBBM]

The Reason Connor Brown is Now Expendable
https://theathletic.com/996642/2019/05/29/trevor-moores-impressive-marlies-chapter-has-turned-him-into-a-model-for-the-franchise/

Keefe has developed a lot of players over his now four seasons behind the Toronto Marlies? bench, but the growth of Moore has been particularly nice to watch because of just how far he has come. When it comes to first-round picks, organizations are invested in their success and the expectations are high. Expectations for an undrafted prospect are different.

In their exit meeting, Keefe told Moore that much: Moore?s path had become the model and Keefe wanted him to know that.

?You get players that are on different paths that end up here. When you get players such as Trevor Moore, an undrafted free agent who comes in and struggles in his first year and even in his second year is a healthy scratch in the first half of the season a little bit, and you see him find his way and never look back, that?s a fun process to be a part of,? Keefe said.

?The credit goes to Trevor for believing in himself and just deciding to come to work every single day and bring a level of consistency that really becomes the model around here.?

From development camp invite to NHL playoff 4th line goal scorer.

That's great.  Now they just need to make sure they never pay those kind of guys in 7 figures because the top-heavy salary structure doesn't allow it.  That's why Brown is not just expendable, it's mandatory that he goes because Moore brings maybe 80% as much value for less than half the salary.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Brown's expendable because of who is in front of him, not necessarily behind him. $2.1mil for a 4RW is too much for any cap structure.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Brown's expendable because of who is in front of him, not necessarily behind him. $2.1mil for a 4RW is too much for any cap structure.

And that's why I say that Hyman goes to. He's a 3rd, 4th line guy playing on the 1st which inflates his numbers substantially. He's replaceable with a guy like Johnsson/Kappy, who have more offensive talent, and his salary, like Brown's is used to help pay those guys. You're 3rd and especially your 4th line is where you go on the cheap. Kadri is a luxury at 4.5 for a 3rd line centre. Brown and Hyman gone equals 4.3 mill towards Kappy and Johnsson.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Brown's expendable because of who is in front of him, not necessarily behind him. $2.1mil for a 4RW is too much for any cap structure.

And that's why I say that Hyman goes to. He's a 3rd, 4th line guy playing on the 1st which inflates his numbers substantially. He's replaceable with a guy like Johnsson/Kappy, who have more offensive talent, and his salary, like Brown's is used to help pay those guys. You're 3rd and especially your 4th line is where you go on the cheap. Kadri is a luxury at 4.5 for a 3rd line centre. Brown and Hyman gone equals 4.3 mill towards Kappy and Johnsson.

I'd love to have this conversation with you for the 7th time but I think the other posters are starting to tire of it

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1134185799564562433