2019 Toronto Maple Leafs Offseason Discussion

[Guilt Trip]

I am really failing to understand why so many of you seem to be struggling with the concept of "if".

I am really failing to understand why you need to be a condescending jerk in practically every discussion you have.

 

[Big Daddy]

Here is my wish.
Trade Ceci now to Detroit for Franzen contract gives us 4M in IR money
Sign Marner to a 5/45M contract
Sign Gardiner to a 3/15M contract
Sign Phaneuf to a 2/3M contract

 

[WAYNEINIONA]

Here is my wish.
Trade Ceci now to Detroit for Franzen contract gives us 4M in IR money
Sign Marner to a 5/45M contract
Sign Gardiner to a 3/15M contract
Sign Phaneuf to a 2/3M contract

I was good until the Phaneuf part. I really don't think he would even sign with the Leafs. He's already been run out of town once.

 

[Kin]

I meant as trade capital.  If he signed his QO, could he be shipped out for a 12th round draft pick, and the Leafs re-allocate those cap dollars.

I don't know. It seems to be a fine line at which point bad value becomes negative value. Either way he seems uninterested in signing the QO and going to arbitration instead so it's kind of moot regardless. 

 

[Highlander]

Here is my wish.
Trade Ceci now to Detroit for Franzen contract gives us 4M in IR money
Sign Marner to a 5/45M contract
Sign Gardiner to a 3/15M contract
Sign Phaneuf to a 2/3M contract

I was good until the Phaneuf part. I really don't think he would even sign with the Leafs. He's already been run out of town once.

I can get you a bunch of very high quality orange traffic cones for that kind of money.  Leafs are speeding up not going to the Ol Folks home.

 

[princedpw]

I wonder if they consider walking from any award and giving the money to Gardiner.

Part of me wonders that, too. It does seem strange that he hasn't signed yet. I'm sure there are teams offering him reasonable contracts in terms of salary, just not with the years he's hoping for - and, I'm sure he knows those deals aren't likely to get better the longer he waits. But, until Ceci officially files for arbitration or his QO expires, the Leafs basically have $4.3M in cap space they can't use right now.

I also think it is suspicious that we haven?t heard anything about Gardiner.  Looking at the list of available guys, there is, in order of quality:

Gardiner
Garbage
Hutton?
Complete Garbage

I don?t really know the Hutton guy.  So if you want to argue he slots in above garbage slightly then fine.

But basically Gardiner is the only guy left.  He turned 29 today. He had 50 points two years ago.  It may be the case that there are some traditional GMs that don?t like him.  Still, no matter what, guys like him are in demand.  It is impossible for me to believe he hasn?t received a boatload of offers.  Those offers may not be perfect, but they are going to define the market for him pretty accurately. If he wanted to leave Toronto, he would have selected his preferred offer like all the other guys on July 1 and moved on.  The theory that he?s hanging around, waiting to see what happens with Toronto remaining cap space, seems pretty plausible to me.

If Gardiner is willing to take a hometown discount (and assuming his back isn?t an issue, something the leafs will know), he is going to be a great player on a good contract.  If it helps lower the AAV and get him signed, I?d go 8 years... 8 x 5 is 40 million would be UFA robbery.

 

[Zee]

Here is my wish.
Trade Ceci now to Detroit for Franzen contract gives us 4M in IR money
Sign Marner to a 5/45M contract
Sign Gardiner to a 3/15M contract
Sign Phaneuf to a 2/3M contract

I was good until the Phaneuf part. I really don't think he would even sign with the Leafs. He's already been run out of town once.

Same, he had me until Phaneuf. By all accounts he was replacement level bad last season, want no part of that.

 

[cabber24]

Here is my wish.
Trade Ceci now to Detroit for Franzen contract gives us 4M in IR money
Sign Marner to a 5/45M contract
Sign Gardiner to a 3/15M contract
Sign Phaneuf to a 2/3M contract

I was good until the Phaneuf part. I really don't think he would even sign with the Leafs. He's already been run out of town once.

Same, he had me until Phaneuf. By all accounts he was replacement level bad last season, want no part of that.

Phaneuf crossed my mind too until I looked up his stats. Seriously, bad, truly awful, it?s not even a little surprising he got bought out. I remember drolling over him during his Calgary hit man days. I thought he was the Chris Pronger 2.0.

 

[slapshot]

Again, I think the idea here is that if Gardiner comes back it would be cheap and short-term.

  while I agree with you that it is not impossible, I was just saying I think it is extremely unlikely. 1) that the Leafs can find a way to make it fit 2) that he'd accept a short term deal just to stay in Toronto at less money when there are probably long term deals at more money. He'd have to REALLY want to stay in Toronto at all costs almost.

 

[slapshot]

I appreciate that the Leafs haven't had a ton of post-season success yet and for some people that's all that would justify such a decision but the idea of someone like Gardiner taking a below market deal to stay with a contender in a city he likes isn't some sort of crazy nonsense to be dismissed as unheard of fantasy.

I just can't see it. Why lock up Gardiner to a long term deal when you have Rielly, Dermott and Sandin coming. Not to mention the possibility of hanging on to Muzzin. Why would Gardiner want a short term deal? Doesn't seem to make sense? I think Babs likes the righty-left 3-3 thing, so I can't see them flipping a lefty to the right side, though I suppose Dermott could do it. As much as some people might like that to happen, including Gardiner, just doesn't seem realistic at all. I think Dubas is just walking a kind PR line, but really knows there is no real room for Jake in the Leafs future plans. I wish him well, think he's a real stand up guy who bleeds blue, so I hope the fans give him (and Kadri) great ovations when he returns. That would show a lot of class, especially in Gardiner's case, with all his trials and tribulations.

Rielly has played with Hainsey, Marincin, and Hunwick since Babcock got here.

More out of necessity than choice...

 

[slapshot]

I'm not saying that there's definitely no chance of this happening, but if it does Gardiner has to know that he's probably not going to get much if any powerplay time now with Rielly and Barrie ahead of him. So he'd be going into next years free agency market potentially proving that he's healthy but also maybe coming off his worst offensive season in years.

If Gardiner comes back, there?s a fun case to be made that we go 4F1D for PP1, and Gardiner-Barrie back PP2 in a curveball traditional set up so there?s no real game plan for our PP.

Rielly
Matthews-Nylander-Marner
Tavares

Barrie-Gardiner
Spezza-Kerfoot-Johnsson

Not sure why you would put Kerfoot on second PP ahead of Kappy, with Spezza there to take faceoffs? Even Hyman, as a net front prescence might be a better choice?

Kapanen and Hyman are both PK, and people do get tossed out of the dot once in awhile. Also their value is on the breakaway, which isn?t really the most effective way to score on the PP. (Kapanen?s short selection is poop).

Marner plays both special teams and Babs was already thinking about moving Hyman on to second PP last season then he got hurt. Hyman also takes draws on PK.

 

[herman]

I think the point I?m trying to make isn?t that Hyman and Kapanen aren?t capable, it?s that Kerfoot is a significantly better option on the PP than those two. He can take draws, carry in, set up plays, and works the net front.

 

[Kin]

while I agree with you that it is not impossible, I was just saying I think it is extremely unlikely. 1) that the Leafs can find a way to make it fit 2) that he'd accept a short term deal just to stay in Toronto at less money when there are probably long term deals at more money. He'd have to REALLY want to stay in Toronto at all costs almost.

I think one of the reasons it's being entertained is that there are reasons to think that maybe the idea of Gardiner having a really good long term deal out there might not be the case. I think the idea of, say, 7/49 is almost certainly not the case. The best offer out there for Gardiner may very well be closer to something like Stralman got or something like 4/22.5.

And I think if that's true, and again this is an if, then the idea of Gardiner coming back isn't really that far fetched. For starters, Gardiner isn't so old that taking a one year deal would drastically affect his ability to sign a long term deal next year. True, the largely overblown fear of the tragic career ending injury is there but as was mentioned elsewhere that can be insured against and is still pretty unlikely.

But beyond that,  there's an upside lurking here. If I'm right and the offers for Gardiner are significantly less lucrative than we might have guessed they would then Gardiner taking a one year deal in an environment where he could rack up points could lead to the sort of deal he really wants next year.

So I do think that if you try to look at this with a clear head and think about how much money Gardiner is really likely to cost himself if he came back at, say, one year at his old AAV then it's probably a fairly minimal amount. Especially to a guy who, unlike some of these RFAs, has already made a lot of money in the NHL.

So while I agree that making everything fit is a challenge for the Leafs, I really don't think someone taking a short term deal over potentially more lucrative deals is the sort of remote possibility you're talking about. I feel like we see that stuff every year.

 

[Deebo]

Dreger reporting that Ceci's 1 year 4.5M contract will be announced.

 

[Strangelove]

Dreger reporting that Ceci's 1 year 4.5M contract will be announced.

I don't really get why we are choosing to sign a dreadful defenceman for $4.5 million in the middle of a cap crunch with Gardiner still available.

 

[cabber24]

Dreger reporting that Ceci's 1 year 4.5M contract will be announced.

I don't really get why we are choosing to sign a dreadful defenceman for $4.5 million in the middle of a cap crunch with Gardiner still available.

A week ago people were saying Gardiner could be in the 7x7 area... I think Dubas believes in Ceci from what he's said. I think the plan is to have him play here. Does sound like a lot, hopefully, he plays well for us.

 

[disco]

With a change of scenery, more structure and a solid partner, it's possible. Playing for a dumpster-fire is really hard on a young D. Even if it's just a step sideways from Zaitsev on passing out of the zone, that'll be fine. Once Dermott comes back with Rielly, Barrie and Muzzin, that's a solid top 4.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm just hoping Ceci's deal is mostly signing bonuses. That should tell us a lot about their intent with him.

 

[Deebo]

I'm just hoping Ceci's deal is mostly signing bonuses. That should tell us a lot about their intent with him.

I think it will provide flexibility but his play will ultimately decide if he stays with the Leafs for the whole season.

 

[Zee]

Dreger reporting that Ceci's 1 year 4.5M contract will be announced.

Doesn't Dreger go on vacation like all the other guys?