2019 Toronto Maple Leafs Offseason Discussion

[herman]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/9/14/20865628/toronto-maple-leafs-roster-maple-leafs-lines-maple-leafs-cap-space-mitch-marner-contract-cap-squeeze

When Hyman and Dermott are back, we can basically only afford a playing roster and nothing much more (one spare). Enter Justin Holl: plays defense AND used to play forward; sports a cap hit below this year's league minimum.

 

[ZBBM]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/9/14/20865628/toronto-maple-leafs-roster-maple-leafs-lines-maple-leafs-cap-space-mitch-marner-contract-cap-squeeze

When Hyman and Dermott are back, we can basically only afford a playing roster and nothing much more (one spare). Enter Justin Holl: plays defense AND used to play forward; sports a cap hit below this year's league minimum.

Hyman ain't coming back.  I predict a preemptive trade to cover for Marner's greediness.

 

[herman]

Hyman ain't coming back.  I predict a preemptive trade to cover for Marner's greediness.

You don't trade injured players. And Marner wasn't greedy: he and his team did their job. Dubas and his team did their job. On the list of priorities, retaining Marner at term takes precedence over getting Marner under 10M.

Not to make this a Marner discussion outside of the Marner thread:
The 'overpay' for Marner (~1.2-2M depending on who you ask) would accommodate the spare players, yes.

The alternative is having no Marner but some cheaper UFA surrogate, let's say Kevin Hayes level + 3 spares. The difference between Marner to 'Hayes' is far greater than the game differential provided by having slightly better spare players.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Hyman ain't coming back.  I predict a preemptive trade to cover for Marner's greediness.

My hope is that Ceci looks good enough in the first few weeks that a team will take him on.

Because man if we don't move someone it's going to be a nightmare trying to navigate the cap. We might have games where we can't even dress a full roster.

 

[Zee]

Hyman ain't coming back.  I predict a preemptive trade to cover for Marner's greediness.

My hope is that Ceci looks good enough in the first few weeks that a team will take him on.

Because man if we don't move someone it's going to be a nightmare trying to navigate the cap. We might have games where we can't even dress a full roster.

I'm sure geek Pridham has it all figured out.  We'll see many "demotions" to the Marlies of players like Moore etc who don't have to clear waivers to save cash on the cap on off days.  I don't know which players are in that situation, but I bet you'll see tons of transactions this year with "player x reassigned to Marlies" on one day only to have him back with the Leafs on a game day.

 

[herman]

Hyman ain't coming back.  I predict a preemptive trade to cover for Marner's greediness.

My hope is that Ceci looks good enough in the first few weeks that a team will take him on.

Because man if we don't move someone it's going to be a nightmare trying to navigate the cap. We might have games where we can't even dress a full roster.

I'm sure geek Pridham has it all figured out.  We'll see many "demotions" to the Marlies of players like Moore etc who don't have to clear waivers to save cash on the cap on off days.  I don't know which players are in that situation, but I bet you'll see tons of transactions this year with "player x reassigned to Marlies" on one day only to have him back with the Leafs on a game day.

We're in LTIR, so there is no cap to bank. If anything, there will be fewer paper transactions the way there were last couple of seasons. The only moves will be covering for injuries.

 

[Frank E]

Hyman ain't coming back.  I predict a preemptive trade to cover for Marner's greediness.

You don't trade injured players. And Marner wasn't greedy: he and his team did their job. Dubas and his team did their job. On the list of priorities, retaining Marner at term takes precedence over getting Marner under 10M.

Not to make this a Marner discussion outside of the Marner thread:
The 'overpay' for Marner (~1.2-2M depending on who you ask) would accommodate the spare players, yes.

The alternative is having no Marner but some cheaper UFA surrogate, let's say Kevin Hayes level + 3 spares. The difference between Marner to 'Hayes' is far greater than the game differential provided by having slightly better spare players.

Well, the signing of Marner is certainly part of the "Offseason Discussion", but I'll certainly defer to CarltonTheBear on that.  I play by the rules because he's a benevolent leader.

1.  Scrape a couple of million off of Ceci, and you've got your Hyman/Kappy/Johnsson/Kerfoot room.  I don't put the cap crunch on Marner at all, but he's an easy target right now.

2.  We really don't know if this is going to work...let's see the result this year before we say that Dubas made the right call here. 

 

[herman]

https://theathletic.com/1212331/2019/09/16/qa-frederik-andersen-on-his-ideal-workload-the-leafs-best-golfer-and-why-he-has-no-use-for-save-percentage/

Freddie and Jonas with the goods:

So looking ahead, you look at your save percentage year by year by year, and it?s very steady. It?s almost the same every year. Do you think there?s another level for you to get to? Do you think that includes a Vezina? Do you think there?s still another tier for you to climb?

Yeah, of course. I think I have the ability to be up there. I think I have more to give. I don?t really look at save percentage too much.

So what do you judge yourself on?

We use different ways of grading goals actually: something that you have no chance on; goals that you have somewhat of a chance on; and then, obviously, goals that you should have saved. Because I don?t get to decide if there?s 40 easy shots from the blue line or if there?s seven grade-A chances right in the middle of the slot. I don?t get to decide that. Save percentage is a very broad and a very average stat. I think every goalie goes through ups and downs (with it). Obviously, I?m aware of my save percentage. I saw later in the year it was pretty high, and then all of a sudden ? I remember the Tampa Bay game where literally everything bounced in off someone, and you end up on the paper it?s a (bad night).

Yeah, it?s four goals on 15 shots.

Exactly. So then you actually look reasonably on it, and be like, Well, what can you do different on a goal that hits the guy here left of me, bounce over, you try to play that one, and then it bounces back-door on an empty net.

The Leafs do this for grading their offensive and defensive scoring chances as well. It's a more rigorous Expected Goals model than mere location, and includes pre-shot movement (passes), tips, screens, etc.

 

[ZBBM]

Hyman ain't coming back.  I predict a preemptive trade to cover for Marner's greediness.

My hope is that Ceci looks good enough in the first few weeks that a team will take him on.

Because man if we don't move someone it's going to be a nightmare trying to navigate the cap. We might have games where we can't even dress a full roster.

I'm sure geek Pridham has it all figured out.  We'll see many "demotions" to the Marlies of players like Moore etc who don't have to clear waivers to save cash on the cap on off days.  I don't know which players are in that situation, but I bet you'll see tons of transactions this year with "player x reassigned to Marlies" on one day only to have him back with the Leafs on a game day.

We're in LTIR, so there is no cap to bank. If anything, there will be fewer paper transactions the way there were last couple of seasons. The only moves will be covering for injuries.

I should have attached that sarcasm face to my "greediness" gibe.

But I do think Hyman might get traded this year.  While I'd like to see Ceci say byebye since there's no proven guy who'd fill in behind him it makes mores sense to manage the cap off of a forward who is almost certainly not going to be on the roster after this year anyhow. 

Hyman would be a real loss but he's more replaceable than a defenseman right now.

 

[Frank E]

Just wondering what the current opinion is, but do we think that Johnsson at $3.4 is more valuable
to team than Hyman at $3.4?

 

[hap_leaf]

Just wondering what the current opinion is, but do we think that Johnsson at $3.4 is more valuable
to team than Hyman at $3.4?

I would say very similar in 'value' in terms of production and both being left wing, we really need both. 

 

[Chris]

If someone has to go in the near term to make some cap room, Kapanen (much as I love what he brings) might be the guy - unless he shows he can effectively play LW for Tavares/Marner. Right now we are much stronger at RW with With Marner/Nylander ahead of Kappy, and pretty much only Hyman/Johnsson at LW. If Kappy can make the switch he could make Hyman redundant and thus tradeable.

Kapanen would probably bring the best return in a trade compared to Hyman/Johnsson. Hopefully it doesn't come to that but things are looking pretty tight.

 

[herman]

If you guys really want to go down this route of who do we trade to make money work? The long term play might be Rielly. As an offensive player, he's bound to get too much on his next deal, unless he's taking a hometown discount (he won't); he's a Norris-candidate but not Norris-caliber talent; we have Dermott, Sandin, etc. who can do a lot of the same (like 80%) now; he can return a king's ransom in the right trade.

 

[Bullfrog]

I don't believe for a second that Dermott or Sandin can come even remotely close to providing 80% of the value to the team as Rielly.

Rielly just put up the 5th highest scoring season by a Maple Leafs defensemen, ever. 80% of that stays within the top 20 point production ever by a Maple Leafs defenseman.

I'm not disputing the logic that he may be the one to go (I doubt it though), but let's not be hyperbolic about the teams prospects.

 

[Zee]

I don't believe for a second that Dermott or Sandin can come even remotely close to providing 80% of the value to the team as Rielly.

Rielly just put up the 5th highest scoring season by a Maple Leafs defensemen, ever. 80% of that stays within the top 20 point production ever by a Maple Leafs defenseman.

I'm not disputing the logic that he may be the one to go (I doubt it though), but let's not be hyperbolic about the teams prospects.

Rielly took a huge jump last season and he turns 26 this season.  Before the 72 points he was a 30ish point dman for 4 years and then jumped to 52 points.  None of our current young guys are 80% of that *right now*, but neither was Rielly at their age.

 

[herman]

Like Zee mentioned, Rielly's last season was not sustainable. They are also coming in with a stronger foundation of playing actual defense.

		Scoring			Goals			Assists			Shots
Season	GP	G	A	PTS	EV	PP	SH	EV	PP	SH	S	S%	TSA
2013-14	73	2	25	27	1	1	0	14	11	0	96	2.1	214
2014-15	81	8	21	29	7	1	0	13	8	0	148	5.4	312
2015-16	82	9	27	36	6	2	1	21	6	0	167	5.4	414
2016-17	76	6	21	27	5	1	0	17	4	0	171	3.5	352
2017-18	76	6	46	52	5	1	0	22	24	0	182	3.3	371
2018-19	82	20	52	72	17	3	0	34	18	0	223	9	436

I think we're seeing the effect of playing with Tavares + Marner.

 

[Bullfrog]

No doubt, he's benefitted from being on an offensive juggernaut, I'm just suggesting we might want to be a little cautious in our projections for the young guys.

 

[herman]

No doubt, he's benefitted from being on an offensive juggernaut, I'm just suggesting we might want to be a little cautious in our projections for the young guys.

But that was my cautious projection.

 

[ZBBM]

Maybe you trade Rielly in the last year of his contract, not before.  For immediate relief, you either take an Excedrin or deal Hyman, Kapanen, etc. from the forwards.

BTW, in retrospect the offseason trade of Kadri was sooo inevitable.

 

[Zee]

Rielly will be an interesting one in 3 years. He'll have just turned 28, is he looking for the equivalent of a Doughty/Karlsson home run deal (whatever that number is in 3 years). At that point do you really want to lock up a guy for 8 years at that age?