For clarity on the FLA - 5.
If the Leafs beat FLA in regulation, Leafs would be up 8 pts on FLA with FLA having 4 games left (8 pts)
The first tie breaker is RW which the Leafs would win because they would have 40 RW to FLA's 35 with 4 games to play.
That would 'eliminate' FLA's chances of passing the Leafs.
If FLA gets a point with an OTL or SOL, the magic number would be 1 (FLA would be 7 pts behind and could win 8 pts in their final 4 games)
So as I understand it, if the Leafs win in regulation on Tuesday, they would clinch home ice in the first round and the only issue left to decide is whether they or Tampa will win the division.
Go Leafs Go !!