Armchair GM 2017-2018

[Kin]

They would have offered more value in return for getting Hall, than Larsson. My read on the statement was even if the primary return in question was merely a serviceable NHL-ready defenseman on par with Larsson, those GMs would have been been happy to add picks or prospects on top of the deal.

But that sort of calls into question NHL GMs and their subjective evaluation of their players. Remember, not a lot of them are the types who are going to go look at Hero charts and decide who's equivalent with who accordingly. Some of them may think the defenseman they'd have offered was "on par" with Larsson but they may be way off on that front or Chiarelli, who's just as prone to bad readings and misgivings may just have disagreed.

Again, unless the offer in question was a defenseman who is not only unquestionably better than Larsson but of a similar style than Chiarelli very well might have still preferred the deal he made. Which doesn't make it the right call but, you know, this seems like post hoc CYA stuff.

 

[herman]

But that sort of calls into question NHL GMs and their subjective evaluation of their players. Remember, not a lot of them are the types who are going to go look at Hero charts and decide who's equivalent with who accordingly. Some of them may think the defenseman they'd have offered was "on par" with Larsson but they may be way off on that front or Chiarelli, who's just as prone to bad readings and misgivings may just have disagreed.

Again, unless the offer in question was a defenseman who is not only unquestionably better than Larsson but of a similar style than Chiarelli very well might have still preferred the deal he made. Which doesn't make it the right call but, you know, this seems like post hoc CYA stuff.

I think the main point from that remark that struck me was that Chiarelli did not open bidding to bring in more value. At the same time, I see the personal cost involved in putting a cornerstone player's name out on the market.

My main reason for bringing it up in the discussion was merely to suggest that Hall/Larsson shouldn't be a market suppressor for scoring wingers.

 

[Kin]

My main reason for bringing it up in the discussion was merely to suggest that Hall/Larsson shouldn't be a market suppressor for scoring wingers.

Well, that's true. I don't necessarily know if I'd chalk that up to Chiarelli being dumb and not opening up the bidding process but I think it's probably fair to say that Chiarelli was looking for something very specific and as a result maximizing value probably wasn't his #1 concern.

Also, when evaluating that trade, people seem to think of Hall exclusively as the 80 point scorer he was in 13-14 and not what he's been since. There really hasn't been a ton of difference in their respective scoring outputs the last three years(.75ppg for Hall to .72 for JVR). Hall was/is a more valuable player than JVR but right now I don't know that it isn't fair to say that JVR is probably a surer bet at this point and either way it's not like we're talking about two entirely different things. 

 

[Kin]

If Taylor Hall (younger, much better) only nets you Adam Larsson, I fail to see how we would have done MUCH better last year at the deadline than we may get now.

That's great but A) I didn't say they'd get much more for him at the deadline and B) I don't necessarily think the deadline was the right time to trade him either.

I do think, though, that the more time left on his contract the more valuable he was and that because the Leafs are, or at least should be, more flexible in what they're looking for in return that they're better situated to get more value back. Keep in mind this isn't in reference to the idea of something better than Larsson, it's something better than a team's 3rd best defensive prospect and a pick as low as the 2nd round.

 

[Coco-puffs]

If Taylor Hall (younger, much better) only nets you Adam Larsson, I fail to see how we would have done MUCH better last year at the deadline than we may get now.

That's great but A) I didn't say they'd get much more for him at the deadline and B) I don't necessarily think the deadline was the right time to trade him either.

I do think, though, that the more time left on his contract the more valuable he was and that because the Leafs are, or at least should be, more flexible in what they're looking for in return that they're better situated to get more value back. Keep in mind this isn't in reference to the idea of something better than Larsson, it's something better than a team's 3rd best defensive prospect and a pick as low as the 2nd round.

A)  You didn't say they'd get more for him, but you beat the trade him before the deadline drum pretty loudly IIRC.  On that, I disagreed because I thought he was more valuable to the team in their drive to the playoffs than what futures he may bring back (nobody was going to give us an NHL roster defenseman for him near the deadline).

B)  On this I agree.  Last off season was probably the right time to do it.  We had the same problem we face this season- too many wingers.  Unfortunately, none are of the quality of JvR so our offense would take a hit.

C)  Completely agree. More time left on his contract, especially because his salary was below his offensive output (ie, he was a great value deal), would have yielded better return.  I also agree, I think we should be aiming to get more than that for return as well.

 

[Kin]

A)  You didn't say they'd get more for him, but you beat the trade him before the deadline drum pretty loudly IIRC.  On that, I disagreed because I thought he was more valuable to the team in their drive to the playoffs than what futures he may bring back (nobody was going to give us an NHL roster defenseman for him near the deadline).

Sure, so the main crux of our disagreement on that front wouldn't be JVR's return, it would be the general value of making the playoffs vs. other considerations. Or, I guess, the real extent to which trading JVR would cost the team in the playoff chase.

 

[Britishbulldog]

I am just hoping for a couple of little trades for dmen.  Figured that I would vent it here...

Winnipeg is looking for a Top 4 LH dman which we have in Gardiner.  As much as I would hate to lose Gardiner I believe that packaging him and his skill with a 2nd pick should net Trouba.

To fill that LH hole I would then take next years 1st Rd Pick, our top Dman prospect (guessing Dermott), our top forward prospect (Andreas Johnsson??), offensively gifted Leivo for Ekman-Larsson who I could see leaving Arizona when he is a UFA due to the disarray the franchise is in.

Was thinking that Soshnikov would be enough for a low Cap team to take the final year of Lupul's insured LITR contract as well.

Roster
Left Wing                         Centre                 Right Wing
Marleau, Patrick              Matthews, Auston      Nylander, William
$6,250,000                        $925,000                  $894,167

Van Riemsdyk, James      Bozak, Tyler              Marner, Mitchell
$4,250,000                          $4,200,000              $894,167

Komarov, Leo                  Kadri, Nazem            Brown, Connor
$2,950,000                          $4,500,000                $3,000,000

Martin, Matt                    Moore, Dominic        Hyman, Zach
$2,500,000                        $1,000,000              $2,250,000

Fehr, Eric                        Smith, Ben
$2,000,000                        $650,000

Left Defense                       Right Defense         Goaltender
Ekman-Larsson, Oliver        Zaitsev, Nikita            Andersen, Frederik
$5,500,000                            $4,500,000                $5,000,000

Rielly, Morgan                    Trouba, Jacob              McElhinney, Curtis
$5,000,000                            $2,812,500                  $850,000

Hainsey, Ron                      Carrick, Connor
$3,000,000                            $750,000

Marincin, Martin
$1,250,000

2017/18
With Buyouts, Retained salaries and Performance Bonuses that line up has a Cap Hit of $73.5 MIL.

2018/19
Let Bozak go for Kapanen, Komarov for Grundstrom, and Fehr for anyone and save $2 MIL from the buyouts being done. Re-sign JVR and Nylander to $6.0-$7 MIL home discounts if both are still dominating, and Trouba to $5-$6 MIL. All 3 for 8 years.  Yields around a $72.0 Cap Hit.

2019/2020
Re-signing Matthews, Marner, Ekman-Larsson and Kapanen would be incredibly helped by:
- trading Horton and the last year of his contract which is $3.6 MIL cash but a $5.3 MIL Cap Hit. Would lose a top prospect and/or draft pick.
- trading Marleau on July 2nd and the last year of his contract which is only $1.25 MIL cash after the July 1st $3 MIL signing bonus to save the $6.25 MIL Cap Hit

That would free up an additional $11.55 MIL to help sign the young guns meaning Matthews could be signed between $8 - $11 MIL and Marner to a 'Nylander' contract of $6-7 MIL if Marner continues to excel.  Yields around a $79.0 Cap Hit.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Sure, so the main crux of our disagreement on that front wouldn't be JVR's return, it would be the general value of making the playoffs vs. other considerations. Or, I guess, the real extent to which trading JVR would cost the team in the playoff chase.

JVR's value is the key for me.  He can skate, has some of the softest hands around the net of any 6'3" forward in the league and has been consistent in his output.

If he doesn't yield a top player in a trade then the Leafs should sign him to a long term deal.

I went through the exercise on Capfriendly (as you can see above) to add a couple of decent defense men to see if the Leafs added a top pair that would be making $8 MIL (Ekman-Larsson) and $6 MIL (Trouba) when Matthews ($10 MIL), Marner ($7 MIL), etc needed to be re-signed could the Leafs keep the core together for the next 8 years and it could be done. 

Of all the 'trade chips' the Leafs have at the forward position I feel that JVR is by far the most valuable and hardest to replace.

 

[Coco-puffs]

A)  You didn't say they'd get more for him, but you beat the trade him before the deadline drum pretty loudly IIRC.  On that, I disagreed because I thought he was more valuable to the team in their drive to the playoffs than what futures he may bring back (nobody was going to give us an NHL roster defenseman for him near the deadline).

Sure, so the main crux of our disagreement on that front wouldn't be JVR's return, it would be the general value of making the playoffs vs. other considerations. Or, I guess, the real extent to which trading JVR would cost the team in the playoff chase.

Well, I did point out that I believe his return is going to be lower than most are hoping/expecting at which point, yes, the impact of losing him might be bigger than the value we get back.

For instance, I think the biggest drop in his value to other teams came after the season started last year.  He definitely had the most value with 2 full years of his deal left.  I don't think his value has actually dropped that much between the trade deadline last year and this offseason- at least not as much as it did between last offseason and last trade deadline.  So, with the Leafs in a position to make the playoffs come last season's trade deadline, I think they did the right thing keeping him. 

Now we approach this offseason with some other considerations:

1.  We've signed Marleau, so trading JvR is more paltable as we have replaced SOME of his scoring (JvR is a better scorer than Marleau right now)
2.  We are in a cap and roster crunch.  Somebody, or preferably two veteran forwards need to be traded to create room.  ie Komarov probably needs to be traded with one of Bozak or JvR

On this last point, I actually lean towards trading Bozak before JvR, but an injury to a centerman would be pretty tough to handle with our C depth.  Right now, if one of them gets injured, Nylander can shift over.  With Bozak gone, Nylander is one of our top 3 centers and then Marleau is the next in line to shift over- his results at C haven't been great.

 

[Kin]

I went through the exercise on Capfriendly (as you can see above) to add a couple of decent defense men to see if the Leafs added a top pair that would be making $8 MIL (Ekman-Larsson) and $6 MIL (Trouba) when Matthews ($10 MIL), Marner ($7 MIL), etc needed to be re-signed could the Leafs keep the core together for the next 8 years and it could be done.

Yeah, so long as every single player on the team decides to take team-friendly deals and Arizona decides to trade OEL for a plate full of hot garbage we're set. 

Of all the 'trade chips' the Leafs have at the forward position I feel that JVR is by far the most valuable and hardest to replace.

Yes, he is our most valuable chip. As in, he's the most likely to fetch us a solid return.

 

[Kin]

Well, I did point out that I believe his return is going to be lower than most are hoping/expecting at which point, yes, the impact of losing him might be bigger than the value we get back.

Well, again, this is all predicated on the pretty solid likelihood that the team is losing him after this year anyway. So the "impact of losing him" is an eventual inevitability, whether or not you get something for him isn't.

 

[dappleganger]

Is JVR, Bozak, Brown, Dermott, and a 2018 1st, enough to get Duchene and Barrie from Colorado?

 

[Kin]

Is JVR, Bozak, Brown, Dermott, and a 2018 1st, enough to get Duchene and Barrie from Colorado?

I think it's anybody's guess as to what Sakic will do but I would say that, conventionally speaking, JVR would be of the least value to a team like Colorado who has no immediate aspirations and has no cap issues and who he's unlikely to sign with.

 

[dappleganger]

I think it's anybody's guess as to what Sakic will do but I would say that, conventionally speaking, JVR would be of the least value to a team like Colorado who has no immediate aspirations and has no cap issues and who he's unlikely to sign with.

My thought from Sakic's POV, JVR's value would be the possibility of trading him at next years trade deadline for a potential 1st round pick.

 

[bustaheims]

My thought from Sakic's POV, JVR's value would be the possibility of trading him at next years trade deadline for a potential 1st round pick.

But, then he runs the risk of injury completely torpedoing JvR's value, or a bad season, or any number of factors. He'd be taking on additional risk instead of assets with guaranteed future potential (and by that, I obviously don't mean they're guaranteed to become good players or anything, just that they're guaranteed to be assets the team will have past this coming season).

 

[Kin]

My thought from Sakic's POV, JVR's value would be the possibility of trading him at next years trade deadline for a potential 1st round pick.

Right but that possibility would theoretically exist for whoever traded for him, with a team like Colorado he just wouldn't provide the extra value of contributing to any particular hopes for the coming season or be a realistic target for re-signing.

Either way, the rumours re: Sakic and Duchene is that the reason he hasn't been moved is that they're asking an awful lot for him and 2 late firsts, Bozak, Brown and Dermott for him and Barrie strikes me as maybe not being what would break that barrier. Realistically there's not a single blue-chipper in that bunch.

 

[Big Daddy]

If we are dealing with Colorado.  We need to get Barrie and Landeskog.  We can give them any 4 of 2018 1st rounder, 2019 1st rounder, Conner Brown, Bozak, JVR, Gauthier, Carrick, Leivo.  Heck they can have any 5

 

[princedpw]

If we are dealing with Colorado.  We need to get Barrie and Landeskog.  We can give them any 4 of 2018 1st rounder, 2019 1st rounder, Conner Brown, Bozak, JVR, Gauthier, Carrick, Leivo.  Heck they can have any 5

I think that is some extreme wishful thinking there.  Bozak and JVR are of no use to a rebuilding team.  The other guys are mid level players and do not make enough money to offset the 5.5 million coming back our way.

 

[Kin]

If we are dealing with Colorado.  We need to get Barrie and Landeskog.  We can give them any 4 of 2018 1st rounder, 2019 1st rounder, Conner Brown, Bozak, JVR, Gauthier, Carrick, Leivo.  Heck they can have any 5

I think that is some extreme wishful thinking there.  Bozak and JVR are of no use to a rebuilding team.  The other guys are mid level players and do not make enough money to offset the 5.5 million coming back our way.

Yeah, as mentioned earlier you could flip JVR or Bozak but that deal would be impossible to sell to a Colorado fanbase that's already looking at a long road ahead. You're selling on two of their biggest pieces and not getting anything close to an A level prospect or young player back.

Which, by all accounts, is the reason Sakic hasn't made any of these trades. He's asking a lot and he's asking for guys who are going to step in and play a major role. If a four nickels for a quarter deal was going to make things happen in Colorado, those deals would have been made already.

 

[herman]

Mr. Sakic,

I can offer you no better option for your rebuilding franchise than stalwart centreman Ben Smith. I believe he is familiar with your organization, and vice versa.

In Ben Smith, you will receive a top flight good professional hockey person who will be invaluable to a young team looking to find their way in the greatest hockey league in the world. Your coach will love his work ethic in the gym, his ability to win faceoffs out of sheer will, and just the sheer amount of time he hones his craft in the defensive zone.

When our team was facing a situation similar to the one you are currently enduring, Ben Smith was a difference maker after the trade deadline, protecting and ensuring our franchise's future. He can guarantee your legacy in this league with a steady, dependable hand.

We offer him to you for we want you to see you succeed.

Warmest regards,
Mr. Shanahan