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Armchair GM 2021-2022: Catharsis

Bullfrog said:
I think I prefer the guy without major neck issues.
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Right now, for sure. Eichel is going to miss a big chunk of the upcoming season. Trading our 2nd line C for an injured player who could very well miss the entire season (at the very least, he's not likely to suit up until some time in January) is not something a contending team can do. If the Leafs were to consider that kind of move, it would have had to have been made right at the beginning of the offseason.
 
Plus, Tavares is still putting up 0.9+ ppg and I don't see him dropping off a cliff over the next 3 years.

That said, Eichel is $1M cap savings and has put up elite numbers on a very crappy team.
 
Bullfrog said:
Plus, Tavares is still putting up 0.9+ ppg and I don't see him dropping off a cliff over the next 3 years.

That said, Eichel is $1M cap savings and has put up elite numbers on a very crappy team.
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I'd take a healthy Eichel over Tavares every day of the week. Unfortunately, a healthy Eichel isn't available, and, if he was, there's no way Buffalo trades him to Toronto without a huge overpayment.
 
Even if you could get around things like a NMC that would never be waived to join Buffalo's clown parade, the optics of dealing the Captain who took less to sign with his hometown team and the resulting effect on his teammates might be bad enough to offset the difference between them as players.
 
Also they want/need Tavares' intangibles: the stoic professionalism, setting the tone on work rate/effort/development, the corporate-friendly hometown face of the brand. There is no other player out there with that whole package wrapped in elite talent. Sure his cap hit (less than market value) threw a wrench in the internal comparables for Matthews/Marner, but his talent level also helps anchor the young superstars to a particular team culture the way those previous veteran presence dudes could not.

He's Crosby-lite: 4th line grinder style with elite skills that just stacks a lot of little non-flashy good plays that overflows into production on paper. Nylander does a lot of the work to insulate Tavares' shortcomings: speed, NZ transition, presenting a dual shooting/passing option to leverage his strengths, so I'm not super worried about Tavares' transition into older player. Speed was never his calling card and the legs go first with age. The mind, the hands, the butt will find a way.
 
herman said:
Sure his cap hit (less than market value) threw a wrench in the internal comparables for Matthews/Marner
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I really don't think that was an issue. After McDavid's deal, Matthews was not going to end up getting that much less regardless of Tavares and I think Marner's deal was fairly unconnected too.

The issue is just that, as good as Tavares is, he's still an inefficient use of cap dollars the way most FA's are.
 
Nik said:
herman said:
Sure his cap hit (less than market value) threw a wrench in the internal comparables for Matthews/Marner
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I really don't think that was an issue. After McDavid's deal, Matthews was not going to end up getting that much less regardless of Tavares and I think Marner's deal was fairly unconnected too.

The issue is just that, as good as Tavares is, he's still an inefficient use of cap dollars the way most FA's are.
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Oh yeah, McDavid (and to a lesser degree Draisaitl), that was still technically less than what he could have commanded.

I'm pretty okay with being a bit inefficient at the upper end of the performance ladder of the roster, especially with needle movers. Since the big 4 have been paid in full (2 Covid shortened seasons), they represent on average 49.69% of the cap hit, and 51.39% of the goals scored by the team.
 
herman said:
Oh yeah, McDavid (and to a lesser degree Draisaitl), that was still technically less than what he could have commanded.

I'm pretty okay with being a bit inefficient at the upper end of the performance ladder of the roster, especially with needle movers. Since the big 4 have been paid in full (2 Covid shortened seasons), they represent on average 49.69% of the cap hit, and 51.39% of the goals scored by the team.
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I think having some inefficient deals on the books is manageable so long as you've got the counterweight of guys on low end deals outperforming their contracts to a significant extent and/or a cap that rises to the point that you can work around it. Absent that, you're going to feel a pretty solid pinch as we can see the Leafs already are.
 
2019-20202020-2021
Cap%deltaG%deltaP%Cap%deltaG%deltaP%
Tavares13.50%-2.53%-4.00%13.50%-3.28%-3.92%
Matthews14.27%5.56%-1.62%14.28%7.76%-1.64%
Marner13.37%-6.61%-2.76%13.38%-2.63%-0.54%
Nylander8.54%4.54%0.79%8.54%0.60%-0.50%

Here's the breakdown of production proportion to the team vs cap hit % by differential.

How to read this: in 2020-2021, Matthews scored 41 goals, which was 22.04% of the team's total regular season goals, giving him an excess of 7.76% in goals proportion differential (deltaG%) vs his cap hit proportion.

Net positives for Matthews and Nylander in goals proportion (Spezza would be hilarious by this measure). I've included points, but it's pretty nebulous with the secondary assist factor. Didn't factor in time on ice efficiency (Spezza would be extremely hilarious by this measure).

As a group, the average deltaG% over these two years was 51.39% (G%) - 49.69% (Cap%) = 1.7%; Matthews' goal scoring (hampered by the wrist injury) and to a lesser extent Nylander's, is carrying the value efficiency load by this measure.
 
bustaheims said:
Bullfrog said:
Plus, Tavares is still putting up 0.9+ ppg and I don't see him dropping off a cliff over the next 3 years.

That said, Eichel is $1M cap savings and has put up elite numbers on a very crappy team.
Click to expand...

I'd take a healthy Eichel over Tavares every day of the week. Unfortunately, a healthy Eichel isn't available, and, if he was, there's no way Buffalo trades him to Toronto without a huge overpayment.
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Oh, to be clear, so would I. But as you mention, that isn't available.
 
Gotta strike while Benning is still in office
To VAN: Kerfoot, Holl, 2nd
To TOR: Elias Pettersson (50% retained)

I?ll throw in Ritchie too.
 
herman said:
Gotta strike while Benning is still in office
To VAN: Kerfoot, Holl, 2nd
To TOR: Elias Pettersson (50% retained)

I?ll throw in Ritchie too.
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He may need a change. Ferraro says he's flat out not engaged at all.
 
herman said:
Gotta strike while Benning is still in office
To VAN: Kerfoot, Holl, 2nd
To TOR: Elias Pettersson (50% retained)

I?ll throw in Ritchie too.
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Vancouver is getting 2 players but we are only getting one. I think *they* should be throwing in the pick.
 
herman said:
https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/1466423376692625419
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"the Leafs have had interest in both Holl and Travis Dermott, but Holl is older and earns more ? in a role that?s not commensurate with his pay."

I feel like this is a weird way to frame the problem with Holl right now. It's definitely fair to say his performance hasn't quite met expectations so far this season but his "role" on the team still right now is that of a top-4, 20 minute defenceman who gets tough usage/deployment and plays on the top PK pairing.

If his "role" isn't commensurate with his pay then what does that mean for Dermott who makes $0.5mil less but plays sheltered bottom pairing minutes and isn't allowed on any specialty teams unless absolutely necessary?
 
Mirtle, in that same Twitter thread, indicated that Holl is the more attractive piece on the market.
 
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