Armchair GM 2021-2022: Catharsis

[bustaheims]

I will admit that this theory of mine is built on the belief that elite players have the ability to make those around them a little better, so I think that Matthews and Tavares can elevate their line mates, without too much of a drop off in their own production.  However, if you are of the belief that Matthews and Tavares need Nylander and Marner to be effective, well the Leafs are kind of up against it to get an elite defenceman anyways because that means you can't trade Marner or Nylander.  I look at what Nylander did in the playoffs without Tavares, and I imagine a three headed attack where Nylander is running his own line and it is difficult to stop.   

It's less that the need each other to be effective, but more that, when together, they provide the maximum value. Mostly, my concern is putting Marner on a line without proven finishers really nerfs his value. He's an excellent playmaker and a great 200 foot player, but he doesn't raise the level of his linemates in the same way. He helps goal scorers become even more productive, but he hasn't really shown the ability to turn guys into goal scorers. He needs to stay with either Matthew or Tavares to maximize value. I'd put the lines more like this:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Robertson - Tavares - Spezza
Galchenyuk - Hallander/Engvall - Nylander
Mikheyev - Brooks - Simmonds

A little more balance. 3 lines that can score, but one clear top line that should be able to dominate. Wingers from lines 2 and 3 can rotate around the 2 Cs, depending on how they perform.

 

[herman]

I will admit that this theory of mine is built on the belief that elite players have the ability to make those around them a little better, so I think that Matthews and Tavares can elevate their line mates, without too much of a drop off in their own production.  However, if you are of the belief that Matthews and Tavares need Nylander and Marner to be effective, well the Leafs are kind of up against it to get an elite defenceman anyways because that means you can't trade Marner or Nylander.  I look at what Nylander did in the playoffs without Tavares, and I imagine a three headed attack where Nylander is running his own line and it is difficult to stop.   

In broad terms, I agree with that premise. Elite players can help good players play great more often than usual. Where I would elaborate further is in terms of style and multi-dimensional skillsets. Patrik Laine is an elite shooter, but he'd have a very hard time driving his own line.

Where the rest of the extreme balance plan sort of feels off is opportunity cost. Points come from talent but it's also dependent on the TOI curve (unless you are Jason Spezza). I think Keefe leaned into it a bit too hard this past season for Matthews/Marner; career high numbers in the regular season: woohoo! Out of gas in the playoffs: boooooourns. It was literally his only solution to any game issues: play Matthews/Marner more. In the middle of a compressed season where there was a pretty easy path to playoffs and to the 3rd round.

I like the three-headed attack approach, but we're probably short 2-3 wingers for that if Kerfoot (SEA) and Hyman (UFA) are gone.

 

[rdowdall]

I will admit that this theory of mine is built on the belief that elite players have the ability to make those around them a little better, so I think that Matthews and Tavares can elevate their line mates, without too much of a drop off in their own production.  However, if you are of the belief that Matthews and Tavares need Nylander and Marner to be effective, well the Leafs are kind of up against it to get an elite defenceman anyways because that means you can't trade Marner or Nylander.  I look at what Nylander did in the playoffs without Tavares, and I imagine a three headed attack where Nylander is running his own line and it is difficult to stop.   

It's less that the need each other to be effective, but more that, when together, they provide the maximum value. Mostly, my concern is putting Marner on a line without proven finishers really nerfs his value. He's an excellent playmaker and a great 200 foot player, but he doesn't raise the level of his linemates in the same way. He helps goal scorers become even more productive, but he hasn't really shown the ability to turn guys into goal scorers. He needs to stay with either Matthew or Tavares to maximize value. I'd put the lines more like this:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Robertson - Tavares - Spezza
Galchenyuk - Hallander/Engvall - Nylander
Mikheyev - Brooks - Simmonds

A little more balance. 3 lines that can score, but one clear top line that should be able to dominate. Wingers from lines 2 and 3 can rotate around the 2 Cs, depending on how they perform.

Yeah I like that, and then if you need a goal, you can shorten the bench and move guys up in the lineup to throw a different look at a team late in a game.  If Brooks can hack it, I like that fourth line too.  Plus, you still have a better configuration on defence than you did a year ago.

I think this also highlights how big of a loss Tavares was in that first game.  If they had him, and Nylander was going on the third line, I think they get that extra goal they needed.  The problem I have is that if he doesn't get hurt, then he is probably playing with Tavares, and if the Habs figure out a way to shut down the second line then the same result happens.

As I type these message, it's becoming clear to me that I just don't really like that the coaching staff doesn't adapt as much as I think they should to what the game is giving you.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/mostlyleafies/status/1412087185042546689
We didn't need Tavares to win; we needed the coaching staff to not be galaxy braining the PP and dodging the Danault matchup just a little if they were going to keep Matthews/Marner together.

The preparation for in-series adjustments needs to be handled in the off-season and regular season reps. I know Keefe appears to try a lot of stuff (Vesey in auto top-6 role?!), but he did not give Matthews/Marner any time apart other than due to injury. He did not give Nylander any centre reps even though it's been needed for 3 playoffs straight.

I too want to see more of a bench accordion. Guys like Kerfoot and Hyman are critical support layer pieces, but it doesn't have to specifically be those two. Find more players of that template on the front end of their development and earning curves.

 

[rdowdall]

I will admit that this theory of mine is built on the belief that elite players have the ability to make those around them a little better, so I think that Matthews and Tavares can elevate their line mates, without too much of a drop off in their own production.  However, if you are of the belief that Matthews and Tavares need Nylander and Marner to be effective, well the Leafs are kind of up against it to get an elite defenceman anyways because that means you can't trade Marner or Nylander.  I look at what Nylander did in the playoffs without Tavares, and I imagine a three headed attack where Nylander is running his own line and it is difficult to stop.   

In broad terms, I agree with that premise. Elite players can help good players play great more often than usual. Where I would elaborate further is in terms of style and multi-dimensional skillsets. Patrik Laine is an elite shooter, but he'd have a very hard time driving his own line.

True, I was simplifying it a bit. In my mind, there are players like Crosby, McDavid, Sundin (see Jonas Hoglund) who can make the players on their line a little better, and there are players like Ovechkin or Bure  who are great, but are largely a one man wrecking crew.  Maybe others feel different about particular players, but it comes down to skillset and the way that they play.    I think that Matthews and Tavares are in that first camp of having the ability to make a line mate better just by being on the line with them. 

 

[rdowdall]

https://twitter.com/mostlyleafies/status/1412087185042546689
We didn't need Tavares to win; we needed the coaching staff to not be galaxy braining the PP and dodging the Danault matchup just a little if they were going to keep Matthews/Marner together.

The preparation for in-series adjustments needs to be handled in the off-season and regular season reps. I know Keefe appears to try a lot of stuff (Vesey in auto top-6 role?!), but he did not give Matthews/Marner any time apart other than due to injury. He did not give Nylander any centre reps even though it's been needed for 3 playoffs straight.

I too want to see more of a bench accordion. Guys like Kerfoot and Hyman are critical support layer pieces, but it doesn't have to specifically be those two. Find more players of that template on the front end of their development and earning curves.

I'm on the same page as you as to where I think they went down the wrong path this year.  I agree on Kerfoot and Hyman, and that's where the risk factor comes in.  You have to hope that there are some pieces in the organization that can give you some of that back over the next couple of years.  They may not be as effective as those two yet, but that they can come in and have a positive impact, so that the loss of those two isn't as great, and if the team has added in other places then the team actually comes out ahead.  If they give themselves a little bit of room, then maybe they can adjust mid season, but they can't give up anymore picks as the next two years are pretty slim on that front. 

 

[herman]

I will admit that this theory of mine is built on the belief that elite players have the ability to make those around them a little better, so I think that Matthews and Tavares can elevate their line mates, without too much of a drop off in their own production.  However, if you are of the belief that Matthews and Tavares need Nylander and Marner to be effective, well the Leafs are kind of up against it to get an elite defenceman anyways because that means you can't trade Marner or Nylander.  I look at what Nylander did in the playoffs without Tavares, and I imagine a three headed attack where Nylander is running his own line and it is difficult to stop.   

In broad terms, I agree with that premise. Elite players can help good players play great more often than usual. Where I would elaborate further is in terms of style and multi-dimensional skillsets. Patrik Laine is an elite shooter, but he'd have a very hard time driving his own line.

True, I was simplifying it a bit. In my mind, there are players like Crosby, McDavid, Sundin (see Jonas Hoglund) who can make the players on their line a little better, and there are players like Ovechkin or Bure  who are great, but are largely a one man wrecking crew.  Maybe others feel different about particular players, but it comes down to skillset and the way that they play.    I think that Matthews and Tavares are in that first camp of having the ability to make a line mate better just by being on the line with them.

And I put Nylander in that list too, but obviously to a lesser degree. Anyone that can make Alex Wennberg and Jimmy Vesey look serviceable has that ability.

Marner hasn't really shown it yet, but I think he can get there. It doesn't have to be by creating an NHL-elite shot; simply diversifying his game (i.e. pass to people other than Matthews) and learning to hold the puck better will make him far more dangerous, and maybe he can carry and elevate a net crasher/chaos line. If he is stapled to Matthews, the defending team need only double-team Matthews all game, and that's 22M taken off the board.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Could Matthews drag two meh players to moderate success? Probably. Do I want to see him do that instead of scoring 50 goals/110 points with another 1st liner with him? No chance. I wouldn't mind doing something like:

x-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-x
Galchenyuk-x-Nylander

1st line keeps the two stars together, 2nd line can be more of a defensive unit, Nylander drives a sheltered scoring line and jumps into the top-6 whenever possible. I think I would still prefer to spend money on a winger as opposed to spending almost $24mil on 4 defencemen but if we did go that route that's the type of line set-up I'd go with.

 

[rdowdall]

I will admit that this theory of mine is built on the belief that elite players have the ability to make those around them a little better, so I think that Matthews and Tavares can elevate their line mates, without too much of a drop off in their own production.  However, if you are of the belief that Matthews and Tavares need Nylander and Marner to be effective, well the Leafs are kind of up against it to get an elite defenceman anyways because that means you can't trade Marner or Nylander.  I look at what Nylander did in the playoffs without Tavares, and I imagine a three headed attack where Nylander is running his own line and it is difficult to stop.   

In broad terms, I agree with that premise. Elite players can help good players play great more often than usual. Where I would elaborate further is in terms of style and multi-dimensional skillsets. Patrik Laine is an elite shooter, but he'd have a very hard time driving his own line.

True, I was simplifying it a bit. In my mind, there are players like Crosby, McDavid, Sundin (see Jonas Hoglund) who can make the players on their line a little better, and there are players like Ovechkin or Bure  who are great, but are largely a one man wrecking crew.  Maybe others feel different about particular players, but it comes down to skillset and the way that they play.    I think that Matthews and Tavares are in that first camp of having the ability to make a line mate better just by being on the line with them.

And I put Nylander in that list too, but obviously to a lesser degree. Anyone that can make Alex Wennberg and Jimmy Vesey look serviceable has that ability.

Marner hasn't really shown it yet, but I think he can get there. It doesn't have to be by creating an NHL-elite shot; simply diversifying his game (i.e. pass to people other than Matthews) and learning to hold the puck better will make him far more dangerous, and maybe he can carry and elevate a net crasher/chaos line. If he is stapled to Matthews, the defending team need only double-team Matthews all game, and that's 22M taken off the board.

I think Marner needs to develop a Gilmour like approach to the game.  He doesn't necessarily have to go to Gilmour's level, but he needs to get a bit of an edge to him if he wants to be effective in the playoffs.

 

[rdowdall]

Could Matthews drag two meh players to moderate success? Probably. Do I want to see him do that instead of scoring 50 goals/110 points with another 1st liner with him? No chance. I wouldn't mind doing something like:

x-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-x
Galchenyuk-x-Nylander

1st line keeps the two stars together, 2nd line can be more of a defensive unit, Nylander drives a sheltered scoring line and jumps into the top-6 whenever possible. I think I would still prefer to spend money on a winger as opposed to spending almost $24mil on 4 defencemen but if we did go that route that's the type of line set-up I'd go with.

So the alternative is to swap Rielly for Hamilton, and I think that would be okay as well.  I think having that top end d-man on the backend is a missing element on this team.  If you do the comparison between the Leafs and Tampa, that's the one area where they are just flat out better than the Leafs.  They have Hedman.  Goaltending is a question mark for the Leafs as well, but Campbell has shown he can play really well, so maybe that isn't as big of a drop off there.  The Leafs just don't have a defenceman that is at the same level as Hedman.

I agree with the sentiment that you shouldn't build your team through free agency as a general rule.  However, I am not sure how else the Leafs are supposed to get a top end defenceman.  Also, with the flat cap, that may have the effect of lowering some of the free agent salaries, because the top teams won't have as much to spend, and I think the top free agents want to go to teams that are in a position to win.   

 

[herman]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2021/7/3/22562153/expansion-draft-musing-can-the-leafs-extract-useful-players-from

A good fanpost look at a projected expansion plan

 

[mr grieves]

The preparation for in-series adjustments needs to be handled in the off-season and regular season reps. I know Keefe appears to try a lot of stuff (Vesey in auto top-6 role?!), but he did not give Matthews/Marner any time apart other than due to injury. He did not give Nylander any centre reps even though it's been needed for 3 playoffs straight.

Yup. It is high time that Nylander gets his own sheltered scoring line. Put Marner with Tavares, as Matthews will elevate whatever he?s playing with (and Tavares? at this point, less so, probably), and see how it goes. They don?t really have any other options in a flat-cap world. 

 

[Guilt Trip]

I agree with the sentiment that you shouldn't build your team through free agency as a general rule.  However, I am not sure how else the Leafs are supposed to get a top end defenceman.  Also, with the flat cap, that may have the effect of lowering some of the free agent salaries, because the top teams won't have as much to spend, and I think the top free agents want to go to teams that are in a position to win.   

Interesting is the fact that Hedman is the only D man currently playing on Tampa that was drafted by them. The rest were trades or signings.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/mitchlbrown/status/1412892200380162050
Hmm? a 2015 Zach Hyman type but with playmaking abilities?!

LW, shoots right, not signing with FLA, getter of pucks? pls Eric Joyce, Wes Clarke, make the pitch before the Computer Boys do

https://twitter.com/thats_offside/status/1412909012253769729
https://twitter.com/thats_offside/status/1412912250344534018

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/moe_jaber/status/1412900665270042624
By all means, Mr. Holland, please send us a 4th for exclusive negotiation rights.

 

[Guilt Trip]

https://twitter.com/moe_jaber/status/1412900665270042624
By all means, Mr. Holland, please send us a 4th for exclusive negotiation rights.

Yup we'll take it.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/jprutherford/status/1412945304303845377
Well well well

 

[rdowdall]

Athletic is also reporting a rumor that the King's want Rielly and the return would be a package around Kempe.

 

[herman]

Athletic is also reporting a rumor that the King's want Rielly and the return would be a package around Kempe.

Ah my OP is gradually coming to fruition.

It also reads more like speculation to workshop a trade fit rather than something a source intimated.

 

[Guilt Trip]

https://twitter.com/jprutherford/status/1412945304303845377
Well well well

Hard pass..