Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021

[ZBBM]

Hey Carlton ? a question that I have wondered about for awhile.  Why isn't this thread on the main convo page?  Doesn't seem any different than any of the other speculative threads on there.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Who you giving up for Larsson?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Hey Carlton ? a question that I have wondered about for awhile.  Why isn't this thread on the main convo page?  Doesn't seem any different than any of the other speculative threads on there.

Historically the main rumours board was for verified rumours from media sources and this sub-board was for just random speculation like us just armchair-GM'ing. The distinction probably doesn't matter anymore. Maybe I'll merge them in when nobody is looking.

 

[ZBBM]

Hey Carlton ? a question that I have wondered about for awhile.  Why isn't this thread on the main convo page?  Doesn't seem any different than any of the other speculative threads on there.

Historically the main rumours board was for verified rumours from media sources and this sub-board was for just random speculation like us just armchair-GM'ing. The distinction probably doesn't matter anymore. Maybe I'll merge them in when nobody is looking.

Probably a lot of the boards could be consolidated, TBH.  Gone are the days when we would have 200-300 people tuned in to the GDT in the playoffs.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Hey Carlton ? a question that I have wondered about for awhile.  Why isn't this thread on the main convo page?  Doesn't seem any different than any of the other speculative threads on there.

Historically the main rumours board was for verified rumours from media sources and this sub-board was for just random speculation like us just armchair-GM'ing. The distinction probably doesn't matter anymore. Maybe I'll merge them in when nobody is looking.

Probably a lot of the boards could be consolidated, TBH.  Gone are the days when we would have 200-300 people tuned in to the GDT in the playoffs.

You don't think the Poll Booth sub board is gonna make a comeback?

 

[ZBBM]

Hey Carlton ? a question that I have wondered about for awhile.  Why isn't this thread on the main convo page?  Doesn't seem any different than any of the other speculative threads on there.

Historically the main rumours board was for verified rumours from media sources and this sub-board was for just random speculation like us just armchair-GM'ing. The distinction probably doesn't matter anymore. Maybe I'll merge them in when nobody is looking.

Probably a lot of the boards could be consolidated, TBH.  Gone are the days when we would have 200-300 people tuned in to the GDT in the playoffs.

You don't think the Poll Booth sub board is gonna make a comeback?

Heh.  I hate to say it, but you could probably condense down to a Leafs Board, an NHL Board, and Everything Else Board.

 

[Bullfrog]

Who you giving up for Larsson?

Taylor Hall? 

Honestly not sure. I'd obviously prefer Nurse, but can't imagine he's going anywhere. Rielly for Nurse might be interesting. Rielly's someone who would probably thrive with Edmonton. We'd need a good powerplay option though.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Adam Larsson?

I'd prefer the UFAs that I mentioned because I think they're all better (maybe not Hamonic) and they won't mean we give up assets for someone with 1 year left on his deal. If we strike out on all those guys he'd be someone I check in on yeah but the price could be an issue. Kapanen for Larsson has been brought up a lot but at this point in their contracts Kappy has the clear edge in value I think.

 

[Stebro]

If the leafs want to get someone cheap they could go for a european player. One that comes to mind is Simon Bertilsson, he will hit people all the time and he can score, however he's been injured a lot due to his physical style of play, but it might be worth the risk.

 

[Bullfrog]

Adam Larsson?

I'd prefer the UFAs that I mentioned because I think they're all better (maybe not Hamonic) and they won't mean we give up assets for someone with 1 year left on his deal. If we strike out on all those guys he'd be someone I check in on yeah but the price could be an issue. Kapanen for Larsson has been brought up a lot but at this point in their contracts Kappy has the clear edge in value I think.

UFA will probably be more expensive unless you're going for a less talented player.

 

[wnc096]

I would like them to trade for Bennett on Calgary.  Buying low on him after an 8 goal season.  His give a sh*t meter is something this team needs, and i think he has a more to give.  Id even trade kapanen for him straight up

 

[Goaliedave31]

Let's do a quick update on the team from the first post, which essentially represents the boring version of what next years team probably looks like:

Johnsson-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev*-Kerfoot-Kapanen
Robertson-Engvall-Barabanov

Rielly-Dermott*
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Marincin

Andersen
Campbell

Everyone in this line-up has a contract except for Mikheyev and Dermott. There's $2.7mil in cap space to split between the two. Let's say they both get pushed into short-term $1.25mil because of the flat cap.

That gives us $200k in cap space with a 21 man roster. No Spezza, and our defence looks kinda not great.

There's of course ways to create cap space here. With Robertson's emergence and the depth that provides on the left wing, a Johnsson trade feels pretty inevitable. So let's pop him out and replace him with Spezza (or someone else, but let's say Spezza) at $700k.

That gives us a 21 man roster with $2.9mil in cap space. We could do two things with that: sign Mikheyev and/or Dermott to longer and slightly more expensive deals. Or we could still strong-arm them into cheap deals and use the cap space to do something with our defence. One of Marincin or Liljegren would get bumped off the roster (other being the 7D) so that gives us about $3.5mil to spend on a (preferably) RHD.

There's still two more fairly simple ways to create some more space. First would be trading Dermott. The reasoning here would be any defenceman we sign would probably take that RHD spot alongside Rielly so Dermott would get bumped down to the 3rd pairing and ideally Liljegren is ready to take that role at a slightly reduced price. The second would be moving Kapanen and hoping that Barabanov is ready to take that role at a reduced price. Doing so would give us a line-up of something like this:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Barabanov
Engvall-Spezza-Korshkov

Rielly-______
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Marincin

Andersen
Campbell

That roster has $6.4mil in cap space available for that RHD who is either signed in free agency or acquired from the Johnsson/Kapanen/Dermott trades. The cap space could go up or down slightly depending on if Petan or Agostino or Brooks takes that last forward spot instead of Korshkov, or if Lehtonen takes the 7D spot instead of Marincin.

Ideally, that defenceman doesn't come in at more than $5.5mil because then we could also have enough cap space to carry a 13th forward through what will likely be a pretty compressed schedule.

So TLDR there is a route to acquire another $5-6mil type defenceman that doesn't require us to blow up the top-4.

Don't forget Lehtonen. He will probably be in the top 4.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

UFA will probably be more expensive unless you're going for a less talented player.

Generally speaking that's of course true but like I said I think most of the guys I mentioned are better than Larsson anyway. Brodie and Tanev would likely get more than Larsson's $4.16mil but I think they're both better players (at least when healthy in Tanev's case) and I feel like the Muzzin extension set a comparable for both of them. And of course that was signed pre-flat cap news so who knows how that'll effect everything. A guy like DeMelo would probably sign for about what Larsson is at and I'd definitely prefer DeMelo without even taking into consideration that Larsson would also cost assets to acquire.

 

[herman]

I would like them to trade for Bennett on Calgary.  Buying low on him after an 8 goal season.  His give a sh*t meter is something this team needs, and i think he has a more to give.  Id even trade kapanen for him straight up

I'm not sure I see the reason why Toronto would do this:
Kapanen: is really dumb but can still pot 15-20 goals and PK; most valuable yet expendable trade chip towards defense
Bennett: tries really hard all the time but can only score 8 goals (10-15 really)

 

[herman]

UFA will probably be more expensive unless you're going for a less talented player.

Generally speaking that's of course true but like I said I think most of the guys I mentioned are better than Larsson anyway. Brodie and Tanev would likely get more than Larsson's $4.16mil but I think they're both better players (at least when healthy in Tanev's case) and I feel like the Muzzin extension set a comparable for both of them. And of course that was signed pre-flat cap news so who knows how that'll effect everything. A guy like DeMelo would probably sign for about what Larsson is at and I'd definitely prefer DeMelo without even taking into consideration that Larsson would also cost assets to acquire.

Where does Mackenzie Weegar sit on your list?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Where does Mackenzie Weegar sit on your list?

He's probably roughly in the same boat as DeMelo. I don't think either would make as much of an impact as Brodie (who the more I think about the more I really hope the Leafs pull off my plan to get him. Also with the obvious benefit of hindsight it's really a shame Kadri nixed that deal to acquire him last year). Weegar would cost some sort of asset to acquire, but I'd imagine DeMelo's AAV will be higher (Weeger is currently a RFA). On an ideal defence DeMelo and Weegar would both probably be a teams 2RHD.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Don't forget Lehtonen. He will probably be in the top 4.

Yeah the noise around him has quieted down since his signing because a lot has happened since then obviously but he did have quite a bit of fan fare back then. I still think the best case scenario, at least in his 1st season, is for him to really stabilize the 3rd pairing if Liljegren can't. Expecting him to play in the top 4 with Rielly seems like it's setting both him and the team up for failure.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Don't forget Lehtonen. He will probably be in the top 4.

Yeah the noise around him has quieted down since his signing because a lot has happened since then obviously but he did have quite a bit of fan fare back then. I still think the best case scenario, at least in his 1st season, is for him to really stabilize the 3rd pairing if Liljegren can't. Expecting him to play in the top 4 with Rielly seems like it's setting both him and the team up for failure.

I would agree. Temper expectations on him for now and lets see what he can do. Hopefully he can develop into a top 4 guy.

 

[Frank E]

I feel like it needs to be said that Carlton mentioned Lehtonen in his post.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Friedman's 31 Thoughts reminded me that Joe Thornton is a UFA...