Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm not sure how the KHL loans work (Lehtonen, Korshkov, presumably Barabanov and possibly even Mikheyev) in terms of timing. When the NHL training camps boot up again in December (if at all), do they just boogie back to Toronto or do they have to play out the seasons in the K?

There's no way the Leafs would have allowed those loans if they didn't come with clauses that trigger their return when camps start. In the case of Lehtonen it would literally mean they signed him for nothing since he's scheduled to be a UFA in 21/22.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Don't forget about Mikko Lehtonen, who can play both right and left D, that the Leafs signed what seems like years ago. He may factor into the D. I do agree though that one or both of Johnnson/Kappy will probably be gone. I think if Dubas could trade Nylander for say a Dumba type, he will. Not sure Dumba is the answer but he'd help.

Yeah I made a quick mention of him at the end. If he makes the team I'd imagine it's more at the expense of Liljegren (or maybe they rotate) so I don't think it'll change the fact that the Leafs need someone to play the right side with Rielly.

Sorry I missed him at the end there. And I don't know enough about Dumba so thx for that. We don't need another Barrie. I think you've got it pretty much lined up except if the Leafs sign Spezza, it will cost them 725K because I think the minimum salary increases or was that also changed recently?

 

[herman]

I'm not sure how the KHL loans work (Lehtonen, Korshkov, presumably Barabanov and possibly even Mikheyev) in terms of timing. When the NHL training camps boot up again in December (if at all), do they just boogie back to Toronto or do they have to play out the seasons in the K?

There's no way the Leafs would have allowed those loans if they didn't come with clauses that trigger their return when camps start. In the case of Lehtonen it would literally mean they signed him for nothing since he's scheduled to be a UFA in 21/22.

That's what I assume, but also... KHL. I do think you're right.

I think you've got it pretty much lined up except if the Leafs sign Spezza, it will cost them 725K because I think the minimum salary increases or was that also changed recently?

Minimum salary for this coming season is 700k. The season after is 750k.
The 725 coming to mind is how Dubas/Pridham re-sign depth at multiple years spanning these minimum salary bumps at league min each year. 700 + 750 = 725 AAV

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That's what I assume, but also... KHL. I do think you're right.

If the KHL decides to break the agreement that they honour each others contracts that's probably gonna hurt them a lot more than it hurts the NHL.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Qualifying Offers for Leaf players that 'matter' per CapFriendly
Dermott, Travis LD $832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125
Gauthier, Fr?d?rik C $700,000 x 1.05 = $787,500
Malgin, Denis RW, C $750,000 x 1.05 = $735,000
Mikheyev, Ilya LW, RW $832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125

Did I do this right?

Yup looks good to me. I think all but Dermott have Arb rights.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I'm not sure how the KHL loans work (Lehtonen, Korshkov, presumably Barabanov and possibly even Mikheyev) in terms of timing. When the NHL training camps boot up again in December (if at all), do they just boogie back to Toronto or do they have to play out the seasons in the K?

There's no way the Leafs would have allowed those loans if they didn't come with clauses that trigger their return when camps start. In the case of Lehtonen it would literally mean they signed him for nothing since he's scheduled to be a UFA in 21/22.

That's what I assume, but also... KHL. I do think you're right.

I think you've got it pretty much lined up except if the Leafs sign Spezza, it will cost them 725K because I think the minimum salary increases or was that also changed recently?

Minimum salary for this coming season is 700k. The season after is 750k.
The 725 coming to mind is how Dubas/Pridham re-sign depth at multiple years spanning these minimum salary bumps at league min each year. 700 + 750 = 725 AAV

Thanks Herman. That 725 stuck in my head makes sense now.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If the Leafs decide to go the UFA route to acquire a defenceman, the 4 options would probably be: Brodie, Tanev, DeMelo, and Hamonic. None of them are all-stars, but they all have reputations of being fairly reliable defencemen and would probably come in at a range of $5.5-4mil or so.

Brodie would be at the top of the list I imagine as the Leafs apparently had a deal in place to acquire him last year but Kadri nixed it with his NTC. He's actually a left-handed shot but has a long history of playing the right side, particularily alongside Mark Giordano so him playing on the right of Rielly would seem like a pretty easy transition for him. There seems to be a reasonable expectation that he'll test the market and I could see him getting a Muzzin-like contract.

Tanev would be next on the list and I could see him getting about $5mil as well but there's probably a higher likelihood he'll re-sign with Vancouver. He's a right-handed shot that I would have loved if the Leafs acquired a few years ago but despite being the same age as Brodie his injury history and style of play make me more weary about how he'll perform in the next few years.

DeMelo and Hamonic would both be a small level below the other two I think and would probably come in closer to $4mil. Again both are guys I've talked about acquiring in the past: DeMelo more recently and Hamonic more a few years ago. Hamonic's game seems to have dropped a little since leaving the Islanders so if he's the guy the Leafs get I think it'd have to be on a short-term contract to see if he can rebound.

There's one other pretty BIG wildcard option but we still don't really know if he's even interested in playing next season so I'll keep him off the list... for now.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Qualifying Offers for Leaf players that 'matter' per CapFriendly
Dermott, Travis LD $832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125
Gauthier, Fr?d?rik C $700,000 x 1.05 = $787,500
Malgin, Denis RW, C $750,000 x 1.05 = $735,000
Mikheyev, Ilya LW, RW $832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125

Did I do this right?

If Malgin and Gauthier are smart they don't take a penny over $700k since it will make them easier to fit under the cap, otherwise their chances of being on the Marlies go up.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So combining all my scattered thoughts from today, this is what a team next year could conceivably look like:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Barabanov
Engvall-Spezza-Korshkov
Malgin

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Lehtonen
Liljegren

Andersen
Campbell

With my numbers (Brodie @ 5.5, Mikheyev @ 1.25, Spezza/Malgin @ 0.7) this line-up has $3,134 in cap space.

We keep the big-4, our defence gets better, and we get a handful of draft picks/futures from Dermott/Kapanen/Johnsson to bolster our now entirely depleted prospect group.

 

[louisstamos]

There's one other pretty BIG wildcard option but we still don't really know if he's even interested in playing next season so I'll keep him off the list... for now.

He's the one I'm most interested in, even though if he even wanted to play it would be a kind of high risk move after the injury he had.  That said - you don't make an omelette without cracking a few eggs...

 

[groundskeeper willie]

Qualifying Offers for Leaf players that 'matter' per CapFriendly
Dermott, TravisLD$832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125
Gauthier, Fr?d?rikC$700,000 x 1.05 = $787,500
Malgin, DenisRW, C$750,000 x 1.05 = $735,000
Mikheyev, IlyaLW, RW$832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125

Did I do this right?

How does Malgin's QA go down from his salary this year?

 

[groundskeeper willie]

So combining all my scattered thoughts from today, this is what a team next year could conceivably look like:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Barabanov
Engvall-Spezza-Korshkov
Malgin

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Lehtonen
Liljegren

Andersen
Campbell

With my numbers (Brodie @ 5.5, Mikheyev @ 1.25, Spezza/Malgin @ 0.7) this line-up has $3,134 in cap space.

We keep the big-4, our defence gets better, and we get a handful of draft picks/futures from Dermott/Kapanen/Johnsson to bolster our now entirely depleted prospect group.

Scoring depth would be a huge concern there, especially if Marner or Nylander get hurt. But options are limited.

I wonder if the bargain basement options this year are going to be more plentiful than usual with the flat cap. Might be a good idea to try and keep a spot open for somebody that didn't get a good deal and needs a cheap one year contract on a team where they might get a lot of points.

What about trading Kerfoot and signing Erik Huala? You might be able to get him for a million less, but I don't know enough about him as a player to say if he's good enough though

 

[herman]

Qualifying Offers for Leaf players that 'matter' per CapFriendly
Dermott, TravisLD$832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125
Gauthier, Fr?d?rikC$700,000 x 1.05 = $787,500
Malgin, DenisRW, C$750,000 x 1.05 = $735,000
Mikheyev, IlyaLW, RW$832,500 x 1.05 = $874,125

Did I do this right?

How does Malgin's QA go down from his salary this year?

I pasted Gauthier's into Malgin's and vice versa is how

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Scoring depth would be a huge concern there, especially if Marner or Nylander get hurt. But options are limited.

I wonder if the bargain basement options this year are going to be more plentiful than usual with the flat cap. Might be a good idea to try and keep a spot open for somebody that didn't get a good deal and needs a cheap one year contract on a team where they might get a lot of points.

What about trading Kerfoot and signing Erik Huala? You might be able to get him for a million less, but I don't know enough about him as a player to say if he's good enough though

You're not wrong about the scoring depth, but it was an issue this season too so I mean even if it's on par with that at least we'll be paying less for it.

As for a bargain basement option, it's definitely something we should be keeping our eyes on and given Dubas' history there I could see it happening. In that case he would probably take Korshkov's ($925k) spot on the team/ledger.

 

[Frank E]

If the Leafs decide to go the UFA route to acquire a defenceman, the 4 options would probably be: Brodie, Tanev, DeMelo, and Hamonic. None of them are all-stars, but they all have reputations of being fairly reliable defencemen and would probably come in at a range of $5.5-4mil or so.

Brodie would be at the top of the list I imagine as the Leafs apparently had a deal in place to acquire him last year but Kadri nixed it with his NTC. He's actually a left-handed shot but has a long history of playing the right side, particularily alongside Mark Giordano so him playing on the right of Rielly would seem like a pretty easy transition for him. There seems to be a reasonable expectation that he'll test the market and I could see him getting a Muzzin-like contract.

Tanev would be next on the list and I could see him getting about $5mil as well but there's probably a higher likelihood he'll re-sign with Vancouver. He's a right-handed shot that I would have loved if the Leafs acquired a few years ago but despite being the same age as Brodie his injury history and style of play make me more weary about how he'll perform in the next few years.

DeMelo and Hamonic would both be a small level below the other two I think and would probably come in closer to $4mil. Again both are guys I've talked about acquiring in the past: DeMelo more recently and Hamonic more a few years ago. Hamonic's game seems to have dropped a little since leaving the Islanders so if he's the guy the Leafs get I think it'd have to be on a short-term contract to see if he can rebound.

There's one other pretty BIG wildcard option but we still don't really know if he's even interested in playing next season so I'll keep him off the list... for now.

Buff.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Buff.

I was actually talking about Marincin.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So that was my somewhat subdued version of armchair-GM'ing. If I was to get a little bit crazier my offseason would include an Andersen trade to re-stock the cupboard even more than we already did with the Dermott/Johnsson/Kapanen trades and a 4-year, $5mil deal for Robin Lehner. Cap projections remain the same.

Nothing super against Freddy, this is just about asset management and having a guy like Lehner who I think is on par if not slightly better than him available for the same price. This would also signify a bigger shakeup move in the locker room than ditching that trio would be.

 

[Frank E]

Buff.

I was actually talking about Marincin.

Same caliber. 

 

[Guilt Trip]

So that was my somewhat subdued version of armchair-GM'ing. If I was to get a little bit crazier my offseason would include an Andersen trade to re-stock the cupboard even more than we already did with the Dermott/Johnsson/Kapanen trades and a 4-year, $5mil deal for Robin Lehner. Cap projections remain the same.

Nothing super against Freddy, this is just about asset management and having a guy like Lehner who I think is on par if not slightly better than him available for the same price. This would also signify a bigger shakeup move in the locker room than ditching that trio would be.

I would do the trade Freddy and sign Lehner deal. Maybe Dubas goes after Matt Murray, who I'm not sold on?

 

[Bullfrog]

Adam Larsson?