Armchair GM Thread 2022-2023

[Joe S.]

In all honesty though he may turn it around and in March we?ll hear Campbell for Vezina talk from Edmonton. Who knows.

I?m absolutely not rooting for his favour, my stance has always been 5 years for Campbell is insane, same as 7 years for hyman.

 

[Champ Kind]

With the recent talk that San Jose may be shopping Erik Karlsson, I'm wondering if there may be a fit with the Leafs. Acquisition cost will be high, but this has to be the time for Dubas to push in the chips.  $11.5 annual salary, 5 years left on his contract (to age 37), and significant injury history are the obvious risks, but may also lower what it may take to get him.  Obviously, big salary retention would need to be part of any deal, which would increase what it will take.

With Muzzin's injury / uncertainty and the team's ability to sustain its competitiveness beyond the next few seasons in some level of flux, I would support something like this:

To TO:

- Erik Karlsson (50%) retention

To SJ:
- Nick Robertson
- Rasmus Sandin
- First round pick
- AHL prospect

 

[dappleganger]

With the recent talk that San Jose may be shopping Erik Karlsson, I'm wondering if there may be a fit with the Leafs. Acquisition cost will be high, but this has to be the time for Dubas to push in the chips.  $11.5 annual salary, 5 years left on his contract (to age 37), and significant injury history are the obvious risks, but may also lower what it may take to get him.  Obviously, big salary retention would need to be part of any deal, which would increase what it will take.

With Muzzin's injury / uncertainty and the team's ability to sustain its competitiveness beyond the next few seasons in some level of flux, I would support something like this:

To TO:

- Erik Karlsson (50%) retention

To SJ:
- Nick Robertson
- Rasmus Sandin
- First round pick
- AHL prospect

Those are all the assets I'm using to get Patty Kane!

 

[CarltonTheBear]

San Jose traded Burns for a 3rd rounder and a couple of meaningless contracts. Carolina got him for about a $5.3mil AAV with 3 years left on his deal. Karlsson being traded at 50% retained would be a $5.75mil AAV with 5 years left (including this one).

It's not a perfect comparison. Burns is much older (37 vs. 32). Burns also wasn't playing as well as Karlsson currently is, although he did have 54 points on a pretty meh Sharks team which is pretty good. On the flip side Burns doesn't have the injury history that Karlsson has and in their post-prime Burns has probably been a little more consistent.

But generally speaking, someone with Karlsson's history and his contract are very unlikely to get traded for a good return. Guys like Pacioretty and Fleury were literally given away for nothing recently despite coming off great seasons. I guess one notable difference is their prior teams NEEDED to move them, while San Jose isn't really under any pressure to move Karlsson at this time. Still, I highly doubt any team would give up anything close to that sort of haul for Karlsson at this time. And that's coming from someone who is actually a pretty big EK fan and loves that he's having a renaissance season.

 

[Guilt Trip]

With the recent talk that San Jose may be shopping Erik Karlsson, I'm wondering if there may be a fit with the Leafs. Acquisition cost will be high, but this has to be the time for Dubas to push in the chips.  $11.5 annual salary, 5 years left on his contract (to age 37), and significant injury history are the obvious risks, but may also lower what it may take to get him.  Obviously, big salary retention would need to be part of any deal, which would increase what it will take.

With Muzzin's injury / uncertainty and the team's ability to sustain its competitiveness beyond the next few seasons in some level of flux, I would support something like this:

To TO:

- Erik Karlsson (50%) retention

To SJ:
- Nick Robertson
- Rasmus Sandin
- First round pick
- AHL prospect

Yeah not a chance...

 

[Champ Kind]

San Jose traded Burns for a 3rd rounder and a couple of meaningless contracts. Carolina got him for about a $5.3mil AAV with 3 years left on his deal. Karlsson being traded at 50% retained would be a $5.75mil AAV with 5 years left (including this one).

It's not a perfect comparison. Burns is much older (37 vs. 32). Burns also wasn't playing as well as Karlsson currently is, although he did have 54 points on a pretty meh Sharks team which is pretty good. On the flip side Burns doesn't have the injury history that Karlsson has and in their post-prime Burns has probably been a little more consistent.

But generally speaking, someone with Karlsson's history and his contract are very unlikely to get traded for a good return. Guys like Pacioretty and Fleury were literally given away for nothing recently despite coming off great seasons. I guess one notable difference is their prior teams NEEDED to move them, while San Jose isn't really under any pressure to move Karlsson at this time. Still, I highly doubt any team would give up anything close to that sort of haul for Karlsson at this time. And that's coming from someone who is actually a pretty big EK fan and loves that he's having a renaissance season.

Great insight and assessment, as usual.  The main difference would be the five years of significant retention that would be needed to make the deal work for the Leafs.  When we look at what retained salary is worth, I don?t think I?m being terribly unreasonable. 

I do think EK is almost exactly what the Leafs need, with all due respect to the excitement a Patrick Kane would bring.  Like I said, I think we?re in 2-3 year window here, gotta go for it.

 

[Bender]

With the recent talk that San Jose may be shopping Erik Karlsson, I'm wondering if there may be a fit with the Leafs. Acquisition cost will be high, but this has to be the time for Dubas to push in the chips.  $11.5 annual salary, 5 years left on his contract (to age 37), and significant injury history are the obvious risks, but may also lower what it may take to get him.  Obviously, big salary retention would need to be part of any deal, which would increase what it will take.

With Muzzin's injury / uncertainty and the team's ability to sustain its competitiveness beyond the next few seasons in some level of flux, I would support something like this:

To TO:

- Erik Karlsson (50%) retention

To SJ:
- Nick Robertson
- Rasmus Sandin
- First round pick
- AHL prospect

Yeah not a chance...

I wouldn't go anywhere near that contract. You want a haul like that? Get me someone younger without injuries.

 

[herman]

Here we go: drop your Trade Deadline wish list

This one sounds hilariously fun
https://twitter.com/265kilometres/status/1603373074711445504

Given that Kessel, Bozak and Kadri have since won Cups after they were released released from the rebuild...

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Even at 50% retained ($3.5mil) his cap hit would basically be the maximum we could add at the deadline assuming Muzzin is the only Leaf on LTIR for the rest of the regular season. Double retention is also of course a possibility but that adds to the cost.

But yeah if we can't find a centre and he's healthy I'd actually be down to bring him back.

Absolutely ideal playoff line-up is probably something like:

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
________-Tavares-Marner
Kerfoot-________-Jarnkrok
ZAR-Kampf-Engvall

Rielly-Brodie
Giordano-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren

Holmberg, Malgin, Robertson, Knies would all be in the running to take a couple of those open forward spots (with others moving around the line-up), but if there are better NHL options available for a fair cost at the deadline a 2LW and 3C are the biggest needs.

 

[louisstamos]

To me, the only spot that really needs an upgrade is the 2nd line LW with Tavares-Marner/Nylander.  Part of me wonders if the answer would be Matthew Knies.  Big body with scoring touch.  The issue is, I don't think he's eligible to join the Leafs until *after* the deadline, so you'd be taking a bit of a chance there.

Otherwise, Tarasenko would definitely intrigue me as a deadline pickup if St. Louis continues to falter.  Timo Meier and Dylan Strome also intruige me.

I was thinking about defensive depth as well with a player like Luke Schenn or Nick Jensen, but I think the Timmins pickup and his play since being in the lineup has quelled that.  A top eight of Rielly-Brodie, Gio-Holl, Sandin-Liljegren, Benn-Timmins is fine by me.

 

[herman]

Otherwise, Tarasenko would definitely intrigue me as a deadline pickup if St. Louis continues to falter.

Would you (or anyone else) go full Anthopoulos to swing a Ryan O'Reilly + Valdimir Tarasenko (15M combined, or 3.75M combined if double-retained) mega rental swap?

 

[louisstamos]

Otherwise, Tarasenko would definitely intrigue me as a deadline pickup if St. Louis continues to falter.

Would you (or anyone else) go full Anthopoulos to swing a Ryan O'Reilly + Valdimir Tarasenko (15M combined, or 3.75M combined if double-retained) mega rental swap?

It certainly would tempt me, but I'm not sure the Leafs would have the assets to get that done.  What would it cost? Probably all of Knies, Robertson, Niemela, and 2 1st round picks?

The other thing to think about is Dubas traditionally (minus the Canadian division year) isn't a guy to go "all in" a playoff run, but he actually might be the biggest UFA on the team this year.  Since he doesn't have a contract for next year, is this the year he sacrifices the future and goes all in?

 

[bustaheims]

I'd actually prefer to avoid the big time piece acquisitions, as teams that win the Cup (and even those that reach the finals) overwhelmingly aren't the teams that add those kind of pieces at the deadline. I'd be looking at more secondary and depth types. ROR would fit the bill as a 3rd line C, but Tarasenko feels like too big a move.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'd actually prefer to avoid the big time piece acquisitions, as teams that win the Cup (and even those that reach the finals) overwhelmingly aren't the teams that add those kind of pieces at the deadline. I'd be looking at more secondary and depth types. ROR would fit the bill as a 3rd line C, but Tarasenko feels like too big a move.

Tarasenko probably wouldn't cost that much I don't think. Especially since he's not exactly scoring as prolifically as he did in last seasons comeback year. I could see him being a sneaky good add for someone.

 

[bustaheims]

I'd actually prefer to avoid the big time piece acquisitions, as teams that win the Cup (and even those that reach the finals) overwhelmingly aren't the teams that add those kind of pieces at the deadline. I'd be looking at more secondary and depth types. ROR would fit the bill as a 3rd line C, but Tarasenko feels like too big a move.

Tarasenko probably wouldn't cost that much I don't think. Especially since he's not exactly scoring as prolifically as he did in last seasons comeback year. I could see him being a sneaky good add for someone.

Sure, but he's still a big play. Cup winning teams tend to add mostly role players and depth pieces, and he's neither of those.

 

[Redleaf]

Anthony Stewart said on Sportsnet that he?s heard rumours all year long about the Leafs interest in Patrick Kane. I?d take this with a HUGE grain of salt but if they can sort out the cap implications he could be a great fit.

 

[bustaheims]

Anthony Stewart said on Sportsnet that he?s heard rumours all year long about the Leafs interest in Patrick Kane. I?d take this with a HUGE grain of salt but if they can sort out the cap implications he could be a great fit.

Kane supposedly prefers to go to the Rangers (again, take it with a significant grain of salt), but I'm sure the Leafs have/will check in on him and Toews. Acquisition cost to deal with the cap implications could make it a no-go, though.

 

[Bill33]

Priority should be to get a scoring winger on an expiring deal that can keep up with Marner.

Tavares, despite his point totals, is not as strong a player 5 on 5 as he used to be, and Marner needs another passing option while he's carrying that line at even strength. Kerfoot/Jarnkrok is definitely not it.

 

[herman]

So? Lafreniere

 

[Guilt Trip]

So? Lafreniere

As a 1st overall...not good. Not going to be worth the ask.