Kessel traded to Penguins

[mr grieves]

Sure. But the market doesn't always just output what's best for your team.

No, but if the decision is to tank you have to deal with the market all the same.

Sure, but let's not pretend that what the market will give has never been affected by a seller clearly desperate to sell something.

 

[Kin]

Sure, but let's not pretend that what the market will give has never been affected by a seller clearly desperate to sell something.

I think that's really only a factor if there's only one buyer and that buyer is fairly lukewarm on things. If two people really want a piece of land it doesn't matter what's motivating the seller, they'll bid against each other. There's no report of that here.

Like it or not, this trade is largely a result of Kessel being on the market and 28 teams shrugging their shoulders.

 

[mr grieves]

Not a fan of this. That's 7 years of having $1.2M to $2M of dead cap space. They needed to get something more for that in my mind.

Practically though that's more or less meaningless. I don't like it but if that was required for them to get the best return out there? At best, you're talking about 2 or 3 years where that money might matter to the Leafs and by then you'd really hope that the cap has grown to the point where we're talking about 1 or 1.5 percent of the cap.

If Kessel's retained ~$2m will only be 1.5% of the cap, his full ride of $8m would've been 6% of the cap. That more or less evacuates the concerns that Kessel's hefty contract -- $8m for an elite scorer beginning to feel his age -- would've posed a problem for the Leafs' cap structure when they were contending.

But he might have posed a problem with them finishing in a position to get higher picks.  And if not, and he's just on the team to string together 30 goal seasons while the team rebuilds, what's the point?  He's only going to diminish in value as he gets older.  As I've previously said, I love the guy but they've decided to go in a new direction and there's no point holding off on it.

Well, the point is, if we trust Cullen at TSN, elite tends to age pretty well. He'll likely still be stringing together impressive seasons when Nylander and Marner are on the top-6. If the cap's heading up such that $1.2m will be 1.5-2% of the cap, his $8m won't be getting in the way of signing the young guys. So, we'd be looking at a team contending with everything we've got plus Kessel. Instead, it's everything we've got plus two unknowns, who have a good chance of turning out such that the best that can be said for them is that they're young and cheap.

And I really don't buy that Kessel's 70-80 point seasons would really net that many wins and screw up the draft position. Can't find the data on how many goals from a player equals an additional win, but the Leafs have done really well at being terrible while Kessel turned in good seasons. If I'm looking to tank, I'm looking to get rid of Phaneuf, who does reasonably well against top competition, and Bernier, who could well bounce back. And I'd keep Bozak on the top line. But I don't really think any of those things are going to happen, so I don't know that tanking is really the plan.

 

[Kin]

And I'd keep Bozak on the top line.

And that right there is the difference between actually rebuilding a team and doing it from your armchair. Keeping a player in a position he hasn't earned sends a terrible message throughout an organization. Rewarding failure doesn't inspire success.

There's a difference between putting your team in a position to lose and trying to lose. If you care at all about developing the young players on or about to be on the roster, you don't do the latter.

 

[mr grieves]

And I'd keep Bozak on the top line.

And that right there is the difference between actually rebuilding a team and doing it from your armchair. Keeping a player in a position he hasn't earned sends a terrible message throughout an organization. Rewarding failure doesn't inspire success.

There's a difference between putting your team in a position to lose and trying to lose. If you care at all about developing the young players on or about to be on the roster, you don't do the latter.

Yeah, that one was a joke. But Phaneuf plays a lot of hard minutes, and Bernier can stop a lot of pucks. If I was worried about the team being too good next year, moving them would be a priority.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, that one was a joke. But Phaneuf plays a lot of hard minutes, and Bernier can stop a lot of pucks. If I was worried about the team being too good next year, moving them would be a priority.

Like I said, I think that if they could have moved Phaneuf in an advantageous deal...they would have. And I'm not super worried that Bernier will "rebound" playing behind a significantly worse team.

But with that in mind...it's a long summer. Just because someone didn't get traded today doesn't mean they won't.

 

[mr grieves]

Yeah, that one was a joke. But Phaneuf plays a lot of hard minutes, and Bernier can stop a lot of pucks. If I was worried about the team being too good next year, moving them would be a priority.

Like I said, I think that if they could have moved Phaneuf in an advantageous deal...they would have.

But, as many have noted, this wasn't an advantageous deal. The primary advantage was  getting Kessel out of town, because, you know, take it down to the studs and all... And if that's so -- and the return certainly suggests it is -- we really should see Phaneuf and others go soon. Because anything that clears that rot is to the team's advantage.

And I'm not super worried that Bernier will "rebound" playing behind a significantly worse team.

And yet Kessel playing on a significantly worse team worried you?

But with that in mind...it's a long summer. Just because someone didn't get traded today doesn't mean they won't.

Right. Of course, I remember hearing that after Grabovski was bought out and Bozak was re-signed and a lot of us were wondering what'd happen at center... But that's cheap.

More to the point: yeah, so much else has been so good. But trading their best asset for a single legitimate prospect and the sort of draft pick that moved for David Perron, Cody Franson, and Antoine Vermette -- and taking on bizarre conditions on the 1st round picks, retaining salary, and (in the midst of a rebuild) giving them a future -- just doesn't seem to quite fit.

If the fire sale continues, it's a serious rebuild. If it doesn't, I think it's fair to conclude Shanahan got talked into a bad deal because he wanted to change the culture. We shall see.

 

[TML fan]

If this move was made for culture reasons, they won't stop at Kessel.

 

[Leaflifer]

Whether we or any other outsiders feel the "Kessel-as-toxic"
thing is real or not is silly. The Leafs clearly felt he wasn't part of the plan by what we saw today. This tells me they just don't want this guy in their dressing room for another minute.

Will the Leafs miss his production? His production is tied to more things than how often he puts the puck in the net. Things like how often the puck end up in his net while he's on the ice, and his overall effect of the team psychology. The Leaf management felt one outweighed the other (and I agree with that).

Say what you want about Crosby, but I don't think he'll put up with less that 100% out of his teammates. I'm interested to see how long Phil remains a Pen. I give him 3 years tops.

 

[Bullfrog]

Naturally, I would have done what they did: put him up for auction and take the best bid. And I would have eaten some salary because I felt as the Pens did that he was overpaid - to help get some talent back. But he wouldn't have played for my team in 2015-16 after what he did this season. I have zero tolerance for quitters.

I won't restart that conversation, but I really can't understand your vehement dislike for Kessel. The whole team quit.

How do you know Pittsburgh thinks he is overpaid? Having the Leafs retain salary doesn't suggest anything.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Top flight? I don't know about that. Decent prospect? That describes him better to me. He's not a sure fire NHLer - in part due to his size. He didn't crack HF's top 50 prospects. He was about 3rd best Pens prospect and he's about that on the Leafs.

There's a fair chance that they don't get a top 6 forward/top 4 dman in return for Kessel.

ESPN's top-50 prospect rankings had him 14th, I'd take that over HFBoards' rankings any day of the week. In the 2014 Entry Draft rankings most people had Kapanen quite high. Bob McKenzie's draft rankings had him 11th, ISS had him 13th, THN had him 10th. Central Scouting listed him as the top ranked European. Sure, he fell a bit from those spots but stuff like that happens. He should still be a pretty highly regarded prospect. And most people considered him Pittsburgh's clear-cut 2nd best prospect behind Pouliot, not 3rd.

As for his size, at last years combine he was listed as 6'0", 181 lbs. That was as a 17-year old. I would imagine that he's added a bit to that frame already and he's not even 19 years old yet. His size really shouldn't be that much of a concern.

 

[Kin]

But, as many have noted, this wasn't an advantageous deal.

Well, you've certainly let it be known that that's how you feel. But many others have disagreed. Which is fine, there's the debate and everything.

But what I'm saying is that I think the Leafs not moving Phaneuf is a good sign that there wouldn't really be that debate if they'd moved him. Then rather than having people like you saying that the assets they got for him don't outweigh his eventual contribution to a good Leafs team  instead it would be debating whether or not the assets the Leafs sacrificed to get rid of him were worth getting him off the books.

And yet Kessel playing on a significantly worse team worried you?

Well, yes but for a different reason. I thought I made this clear, I'm pretty confident that Kessel playing on a significantly worse team would result in Kessel having another bad year and his value stagnating or even dropping.

I wasn't worried particularly about Kessel having a much better year on a worse team but what I did say was that even in the unlikely even that that did happen I didn't really see a net upside for the Leafs.

Right. Of course, I remember hearing that after Grabovski was bought out and Bozak was re-signed and a lot of us were wondering what'd happen at center... But that's cheap.

Similarly while it seemed like certain fans complaints in that regard that summer centered around the unrealistic expectation that the Leafs could manufacture a legitimate 1st line center simply out of their desire for one likewise here I don't think the Leafs can credibly be criticized for not being able to snap their fingers and make Kessel more valuable or present a situation where, by keeping him, he was likely to become more valuable.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Top flight? I don't know about that. Decent prospect? That describes him better to me. He's not a sure fire NHLer - in part due to his size. He didn't crack HF's top 50 prospects. He was about 3rd best Pens prospect and he's about that on the Leafs.

There's a fair chance that they don't get a top 6 forward/top 4 dman in return for Kessel.

ESPN's top-50 prospect rankings had him 14th, I'd take that over HFBoards' rankings any day of the week. In the 2014 Entry Draft rankings most people had Kapanen quite high. Bob McKenzie's draft rankings had him 11th, ISS had him 13th, THN had him 10th. Central Scouting listed him as the top ranked European. Sure, he fell a bit from those spots but stuff like that happens. He should still be a pretty highly regarded prospect. And most people considered him Pittsburgh's clear-cut 2nd best prospect behind Pouliot, not 3rd.

As for his size, at last years combine he was listed as 6'0", 181 lbs. That was as a 17-year old. I would imagine that he's added a bit to that frame already and he's not even 19 years old yet. His size really shouldn't be that much of a concern.

Also a late birthday, only about 3 months older than Mikko Rantanen who went 10th overall this past draft.

 

[Kin]

He was about 3rd best Pens prospect and he's about that on the Leafs.

But the top 2 prospects on the Leafs are Nylander and Marner, right? I don't think coming behind those two makes someone not a really good prospect.

 

[sickbeast]

So I guess this means if the Leafs want to trade phaneuf they are going to have to retain salary on him as well.

 

[Lynx]

So I guess this means if the Leafs want to trade phaneuf they are going to have to retain salary on him as well.

Not necessarily. According to a story in the Star the original deal sent Kunitz and Scudari to the Leafs but had to be changed to include the Leafs retaining salary instead when those two refused to waive their no trade clauses.

The Leafs will have to take a contact back for Phaneuf, but everybody expected that already.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Not necessarily. According to a story in the Star the original deal sent Kunitz and Scudari to the Leafs but had to be changed to include the Leafs retaining salary instead when those two refused to waive their no trade clauses.

I hadn't heard that before. Interesting. That really would have forced Toronto into retaining salary here then.

 

[Joe S.]

So I guess this means if the Leafs want to trade phaneuf they are going to have to retain salary on him as well.

Not necessarily. According to a story in the Star the original deal sent Kunitz and Scudari to the Leafs but had to be changed to include the Leafs retaining salary instead when those two refused to waive their no trade clauses.

The Leafs will have to take a contact back for Phaneuf, but everybody expected that already.

This implies that the leafs accepted the trade and the players didn't waive? I'm not sure I believe that - not the waiving thing, that they were actually ok with the original proposal.

 

[Kin]

This implies that the leafs accepted the trade and the players didn't waive? I'm not sure I believe that - not the waiving thing, that they were actually ok with the original proposal.

I think the implication is that it was Kunitz and Scuderi in addition to the prospects and picks.

 

[cw]

Top flight? I don't know about that. Decent prospect? That describes him better to me. He's not a sure fire NHLer - in part due to his size. He didn't crack HF's top 50 prospects. He was about 3rd best Pens prospect and he's about that on the Leafs.

There's a fair chance that they don't get a top 6 forward/top 4 dman in return for Kessel.

ESPN's top-50 prospect rankings had him 14th, I'd take that over HFBoards' rankings any day of the week. In the 2014 Entry Draft rankings most people had Kapanen quite high. Bob McKenzie's draft rankings had him 11th, ISS had him 13th, THN had him 10th. Central Scouting listed him as the top ranked European. Sure, he fell a bit from those spots but stuff like that happens. He should still be a pretty highly regarded prospect. And most people considered him Pittsburgh's clear-cut 2nd best prospect behind Pouliot, not 3rd.

As for his size, at last years combine he was listed as 6'0", 181 lbs. That was as a 17-year old. I would imagine that he's added a bit to that frame already and he's not even 19 years old yet. His size really shouldn't be that much of a concern.

I think a lot of folks had him behind Maatta and Pouliot. Some might argue Maatta isn't a prospect because he's in the NHL but he's only 20.

Several of these numbers you cite like 11th or 13th are for a draft year - not overall prospect rankings. I haven't seen ESPN's nor ever relied on it. And Kapanen's stock has fallen since he was drafted. So how ESPN gets him that high has me quickly suspicious of their assessment. Any ranking that has him inside the top 40 overall would be suspect to me.

To me, a "top flight" prospect is a guy who has a high probability of contributing at a top 6/top 4 level in the NHL. In my opinion, and I think the opinion of many, Kapanen isn't a high probability of making top 6 in the NHL - I'd rate his chances now as less than average from where he was picked because his stock has fallen some since he was drafted ... less than roughly 33% chance of making it in the NHL as a top 6 player. (I don't mean them trying him there - I mean him making a career playing there).

If he makes it as a third liner, that's not so exciting for me because Santorelli, Raymond, Higgins and Winnick type guys can be had for zero talent cost and lower dollars on the UFA market.

I'm a Leafs fan. I hope Kapanen defies the odds and turns out to be a superstar. But realistically, we'll be lucky if he makes top 6.