Kessel traded to Penguins

[Frank E]

More from Lebrun
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For starters, the Penguins didn?t lose what they felt were their Grade A prospects in the package sent back to Toronto.

So even the Pens, according to Lebrun, didn't regard Kapanen as "top flight" ("Grade A" above)

Secondly, and more importantly, was Toronto's agreeing to retain some of Kessel's salary, an idea that the Leafs had fought for a long time. Toronto retained 15 percent of Kessel?s annual salary, and the perennial 35-goal scorer looks a lot better on your roster at $6.75 million per year than $8 million, that?s for sure.

Well, I'll disagree that Kapanen wasn't one of their "Grade A" prospects.  That defenseman Pouliot was the only guy I saw rated as high as Kapanen.

Secondly, ya, $6.75 is better than $8.  Again, a math problem getting $8mil under your cap while making a deal that centres around prospects/picks going the other way instead of $8 mil worth of salary.

 

[Bullfrog]

If it's Crosby or Stamkos @ $10 mil for 7 years, I don't think there's a math problem for most teams - or it's a math problem they're happy to solve. Therefore, with Kessel, it is more of a problem with Kessel's worth and $8 mil/yr for Kessel over 7 years scared a lot of teams away.

There's no way either of those guys are getting less than $11M on the open market. And there's very few teams that would be able to afford that or fit it under their cap. Happy to solve and able to solve are significantly different.

Kessel's one of the top 5-10 scorers in the league over the last few years. If teams were scared away from him, it probably has more to do with the cost it would take to get him. On the free market, he easily gets $8M for 7 years.

 

[cw]

Secondly, and more importantly, was Toronto's agreeing to retain some of Kessel's salary, an idea that the Leafs had fought for a long time. Toronto retained 15 percent of Kessel?s annual salary, and the perennial 35-goal scorer looks a lot better on your roster at $6.75 million per year than $8 million, that?s for sure.

So, we've established saving money is desirable?

We've established the top bidding team for Phil  (of the few teams reportedly interested) wouldn't go along with the deal unless the Leafs paid 15% of Phil's salary. In other words, the Leafs and Pens effectively agreed he wasn't worth $8 mil/yr for 7 years.

 

[Kin]

Crosby at $10 mil per year being below his market value? probably.

I mean, unless you're inclined to make the argument that Patrick Kane is better than Sidney Crosby, I don't think there's a "probably" about it. 

I think we found out in this trade that Kessel's market value isn't $8 mil/yr x 7 years. That debate is over.

Well, I hate to disagree(although just by doing so I prove you wrong) but this trade doesn't establish that at all. The UFA market is inefficient. The trade market is less so. That's all this proves.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

We've established the top bidding team for Phil  (of the few teams reportedly interested) wouldn't go along with the deal unless the Leafs paid 15% of Phil's salary. In other words, the Leafs and Pens effectively agreed he wasn't worth $8 mil/yr for 7 years.

All that we've established is that the Penguins couldn't fit Kessel's entire $8mil cap hit under their salary cap. Largely because they have a couple of bad contracts taking up space that they couldn't jettison. If they could have moved those contracts they would have been willing to fit that $8mil in.

 

[Bullfrog]

We've established the top bidding team for Phil  (of the few teams reportedly interested) wouldn't go along with the deal unless the Leafs paid 15% of Phil's salary. In other words, the Leafs and Pens effectively agreed he wasn't worth $8 mil/yr for 7 years.

No, what's been established is what the Pens were willing to trade for Kessel, nothing more.

 

[Lynx]

We've established the top bidding team for Phil  (of the few teams reportedly interested) wouldn't go along with the deal unless the Leafs paid 15% of Phil's salary. In other words, the Leafs and Pens effectively agreed he wasn't worth $8 mil/yr for 7 years.

All that we've established is that the Penguins couldn't fit Kessel's entire $8mil cap hit under their salary cap. Largely because they have a couple of bad contracts taking up space that they couldn't jettison. If they could have moved those contracts they would have been willing to fit that $8mil in.

The rumors even say the Penguins not only were willing to take Kessel at his full contact, they were still willing to give up a package of picks and prospects for him. The only thing that stopped them were the no trade clauses in Kunitz and Scudari's contacts.

So I guess we've established he is worth the money now?

 

[bustaheims]

We've established the top bidding team for Phil  (of the few teams reportedly interested) wouldn't go along with the deal unless the Leafs paid 15% of Phil's salary. In other words, the Leafs and Pens effectively agreed he wasn't worth $8 mil/yr for 7 years.

No, that's an assumption on your part. The reality is that team needed the Leafs to either take back a significant contract or eat some salary in order to fit Kessel into their cap structure. The teams that would have been looking at acquiring Kessel are all teams that are near the cap ceiling. If the Leafs were to have traded him to a team that wasn't up against the ceiling already, they almost certainly would not have had to retain cap or take money back (depending on the financial realities - or internal cap - of those teams, of course). The fact that the Leafs retained money on Kessel is not at all a reflection on his value. It's a reflection of the cap realities around the league, the Leafs' wish to get a deal done, and the unfortunate reality that most of the contracts other teams would have like to send back contain NTCs that wouldn't be waived to send players to a rebuilding franchise.

 

[cw]

If it's Crosby or Stamkos @ $10 mil for 7 years, I don't think there's a math problem for most teams - or it's a math problem they're happy to solve. Therefore, with Kessel, it is more of a problem with Kessel's worth and $8 mil/yr for Kessel over 7 years scared a lot of teams away.

There's no way either of those guys are getting less than $11M on the open market. And there's very few teams that would be able to afford that or fit it under their cap. Happy to solve and able to solve are significantly different.

Kessel's one of the top 5-10 scorers in the league over the last few years. If teams were scared away from him, it probably has more to do with the cost it would take to get him. On the free market, he easily gets $8M for 7 years.

The top cap hits currently are $10.5 mil. I don't think there's a team in the league who wouldn't make room for either Crosby or Stamkos at $11 mil/yr. Other bodies would go.

That's the thing about this Kessel deal. The Leafs ate 15% of his contract and still got a rather unexciting return. Imagine what a team might get in a trade for Corey Perry ($8.6 /yr) to pick a winger somewhat close in cap hit or Shea Weber 7.86 /yr - close in cap hit.

Wouldn't they get more than Kapanen and something less than a 1st (2nd for 3rd) ? I think they would and I don't think their teams would have to eat 15% of their contract to move them.

Now if Phil was at $4 mil/yr x 7 years, I'll bet the Leafs wouldn't have to eat a dime and the talent return would be a lot better than Kapanen and something less than a 1st.

The point is: the size and the length of the contract was a problem for moving Kessel that it would not be for other established NHL stars because Kessel is overpaid/not a good value for that amount and term.

 

[bustaheims]

The point is: the size and the length of the contract was a problem for moving Kessel that it would not be for other established NHL stars because Kessel is overpaid/not a good value for that amount and term.

Again, no. The problem here is that Kessel is not one of a small group of elite players teams would be willing to blow up their roster to add. He's in the tier directly below those players - he's a guy teams would love to add to their roster, not gut their roster to build around. He's not Crosby or Stamkos or Toews. There are many many "established stars" that would see their teams facing similar issues were they on the trade market today.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

http://dkonpittsburghsports.com/2015/07/02/kessel-im-just-so-excited-man-i-really-am/

 

[Kin]

No, what's been established is what the Pens were willing to trade for Kessel, nothing more.

Exactly. Retained money is an asset, just like any other. It was a valuable one for Pittsburgh here after the initial framework fell through because of their cap situation. Pittsburgh wanting the Leafs to retain cap dollars is as much a statement of Kessel's value as the Leafs wanting Kapanen for him is.

 

[sickbeast]

Shall we compare dougie Hamilton, Tyler seguin, and whoever the other first round pick turned into with the players the Leafs just got back? Just so we can see how bad our gms have been?

 

[cw]

We've established the top bidding team for Phil  (of the few teams reportedly interested) wouldn't go along with the deal unless the Leafs paid 15% of Phil's salary. In other words, the Leafs and Pens effectively agreed he wasn't worth $8 mil/yr for 7 years.

No, that's an assumption on your part. The reality is that team needed the Leafs to either take back a significant contract or eat some salary in order to fit Kessel into their cap structure. The teams that would have been looking at acquiring Kessel are all teams that are near the cap ceiling. If the Leafs were to have traded him to a team that wasn't up against the ceiling already, they almost certainly would not have had to retain cap or take money back (depending on the financial realities - or internal cap - of those teams, of course). The fact that the Leafs retained money on Kessel is not at all a reflection on his value. It's a reflection of the cap realities around the league, the Leafs' wish to get a deal done, and the unfortunate reality that most of the contracts other teams would have like to send back contain NTCs that wouldn't be waived to send players to a rebuilding franchise.

If the Pens offered the Leafs Sidney Crosby at $11/yr (he's currently at $8.7?/yr) would the Leafs tell the Pens to eat 15% of his deal in order to fit him under the Leafs cap? That's absurd. They'd jump all over it and pay full pop because Crosby is worth it.

Phil isn't worth it. Plain, pure and simple.

Sure teams have cap limitations. But they'll move a mountain of cap space for the right players. They wouldn't do so for Phil because he ain't worth it. Just like few teams bid for Phil for similar reasons. The whole league would be in on Crosby sweepstakes if he were available.

Oh, shame on me for comparing to the best or near best player in the league. How unfair! Yet that's the point. Phil at $8 mil/yr for 7 years  should be pretty close to the best player in the league because there's only a handful earning more. But as the trade demonstrated, he really isn't.

 

[bustaheims]

If the Pens offered the Leafs Sidney Crosby at $11/yr (he's currently at $8.7?/yr) would the Leafs tell the Pens to eat 15% of his deal in order to fit him under the Leafs cap? That's absurd. They'd jump all over it and pay full pop because Crosby is worth it.

They'd require the Pens to take a contract back in order to facilitate the deal, as Pittsburgh tried to do with the Leafs before NTCs got in the way. That's just the reality of the cap system.

 

[cw]

We've established the top bidding team for Phil  (of the few teams reportedly interested) wouldn't go along with the deal unless the Leafs paid 15% of Phil's salary. In other words, the Leafs and Pens effectively agreed he wasn't worth $8 mil/yr for 7 years.

No, what's been established is what the Pens were willing to trade for Kessel, nothing more.

The other NHL teams were banned from making offers for Kessel? I don't think so.

What's been established is the Pens made the best offer for Kessel - at the very least, from teams on Kessel's list (roughly 10). The Leafs might have talked with a few others not on his list (probably did when few showed interest).

The reported interest in an $8 mil/yr hockey player (around 12th highest cap hit in the league) was close to pitiful. That also says something about the player and his contract.

 

[mr grieves]

More from Lebrun
link
For starters, the Penguins didn?t lose what they felt were their Grade A prospects in the package sent back to Toronto.

So even the Pens, according to Lebrun, didn't regard Kapanen as "top flight" ("Grade A" above)

Secondly, and more importantly, was Toronto's agreeing to retain some of Kessel's salary, an idea that the Leafs had fought for a long time. Toronto retained 15 percent of Kessel?s annual salary, and the perennial 35-goal scorer looks a lot better on your roster at $6.75 million per year than $8 million, that?s for sure.

Well, I'll disagree that Kapanen wasn't one of their "Grade A" prospects.  That defenseman Pouliot was the only guy I saw rated as high as Kapanen.

But even if he is among the best Pittsburgh had, didn't we all initially think the Pens were a poor trading partner for the Leafs because their best prospects weren't good enough? They might have use for a scoring winger in his prime, but the Leafs were looking for a partner with a few assets that weren't picked at the bottom of the first round. 

 

[Kin]

If the Pens offered the Leafs Sidney Crosby at $11/yr (he's currently at $8.7?/yr) would the Leafs tell the Pens to eat 15% of his deal in order to fit him under the Leafs cap? That's absurd. They'd jump all over it and pay full pop because Crosby is worth it.

Except that's actually not how trades work. For the Pens to offer the Leafs Crosby in a trade they would want assets back. So the question would become if the Leafs had the chance to add Crosby at 11 million per and had to throw in the sort of assets that would make it worth it for Pittsburgh...would they do it?

That's a trickier question. Would the Leafs want to go forward with Crosby, who's 28, and a significantly depleted group of prospects? You might lean yes but it's not an automatic answer.

And for a team like Chicago or Tampa Bay it's a significantly harder question. How would Chicago fit Crosby under their cap? By dealing Keith? Crawford? Kane? Would they want to blow up a team that's won 3 cups in 6 years to put together a team that would end up looking more like the Pittsburgh team Crosby's been unable to win with?

More teams would move things around for Crosby than Kessel because Crosby's better. But that's not a matter of debate.

Yet that's the point. Phil at $8 mil/yr for 7 years  should be pretty close to the best player in the league because there's only a handful earning more.

The best players in the league, the ones who signed contracts in the current CBA, are actually earning about 25% more than Kessel. So Kessel, to be worth his contract in that context, needs to be 3/4's as good as, say, Patrick Kane. 

 

[cw]

If the Pens offered the Leafs Sidney Crosby at $11/yr (he's currently at $8.7?/yr) would the Leafs tell the Pens to eat 15% of his deal in order to fit him under the Leafs cap? That's absurd. They'd jump all over it and pay full pop because Crosby is worth it.

They'd require the Pens to take a contract back in order to facilitate the deal, as Pittsburgh tried to do with the Leafs before NTCs got in the way. That's just the reality of the cap system.

They might to make the cap math work easier but they wouldn't make them eat a contract. They'd get Kadri or something of good and fair value - not a dud. Kessel's contract, if the Leafs were not going to eat a %, was going to require eating a bad contract (like Weiss in Detroit was reported for example in the rumored Phaneuf deal)

 

[mr grieves]

We've established the top bidding team for Phil  (of the few teams reportedly interested) wouldn't go along with the deal unless the Leafs paid 15% of Phil's salary. In other words, the Leafs and Pens effectively agreed he wasn't worth $8 mil/yr for 7 years.

No, that's an assumption on your part. The reality is that team needed the Leafs to either take back a significant contract or eat some salary in order to fit Kessel into their cap structure. The teams that would have been looking at acquiring Kessel are all teams that are near the cap ceiling. If the Leafs were to have traded him to a team that wasn't up against the ceiling already, they almost certainly would not have had to retain cap or take money back (depending on the financial realities - or internal cap - of those teams, of course). The fact that the Leafs retained money on Kessel is not at all a reflection on his value. It's a reflection of the cap realities around the league, the Leafs' wish to get a deal done, and the unfortunate reality that most of the contracts other teams would have like to send back contain NTCs that wouldn't be waived to send players to a rebuilding franchise.

But the thing I most love about these "the market has spoken!" arguments whenever a player moves is that they always somehow confirm the overheated morality plays we play out in our heads.