Leafs Accquire McCabe and Lafferty
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Kin
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I won't rehash the same things I said in the O'Reilly thread but I do think the people wanting a return to the 1v8 playoff seeding sort of reinforces my sort of general thinking about this team and "going for it". I still think it feels like this team's Cup hopes rest not on any legitimate or meaningful plans to actually be the best team in the league but rather it's sort of a hope of "Well, this team might be good enough if enough things go right for us and wrong for everyone else, let's hope we get the bounces" approach. Whether this is a result of the mistakes made with cap management or the organization just being generally unwilling to try and fix the error Lamoriello made when they started "going for it" in Matthews' rookie season is anyone's guess but I don't think it's all that inspiring.
Who knows? Maybe one year the breaks go our way and it works. I hope it does. But boy, considering the talent they were able to put together in a relatively short span of building it sure makes me wish they'd been a little more patient and looked to build a team that other teams wanted to duck, rather than one that has people here worrying about ducking teams.
Who knows? Maybe one year the breaks go our way and it works. I hope it does. But boy, considering the talent they were able to put together in a relatively short span of building it sure makes me wish they'd been a little more patient and looked to build a team that other teams wanted to duck, rather than one that has people here worrying about ducking teams.
I usually tend towards the pessimistic when it comes to the leafs, but I can't imagine there's too many teams in the NHL that would be salivating at the chance to play them in the playoffs. The young players have matured, and are at their statistical peak, they've added significant depth, and there's going to be an element of desperation around the group.
If I was a fan of any team in the east or west, I'd expect a hell of a battle.
Could they have been potentially better if they slowed the rebuild? Sure, maybe. But the idea that "maybe the breaks go our way" as a default position essentially describes a very high percentage of all the cup finalists ever.
If I was a fan of any team in the east or west, I'd expect a hell of a battle.
Could they have been potentially better if they slowed the rebuild? Sure, maybe. But the idea that "maybe the breaks go our way" as a default position essentially describes a very high percentage of all the cup finalists ever.
Nik said:
I've wondered about that as well. You may be right. Prior to the cap, I was all for patience: roll the roster until it was deep with talent. If it takes a little longer, so what? You'll eventually "get there".
But the part where I'm not so sure is where we are now. Matthews, Marner & Nylander are approaching UFA status. We may not be able to re-sign all of them even if we wanted to. Tavares is 32 and entering his declining years in a game that favors skating speed and youth more than in decades gone by.
This year and next may be the only two years left this group is going to get to take a credible crack at winning it all. I don't foresee "Matthews, Marner & Nylander are hitting UFA status -let's trade them so we don't lose them for nothing" as the way that is going to go in the next couple of years. With those guys, we didn't just get good first round draft position - we got some very good elite talent as opposed to mediocre or busts.
I don't know that for sure. But I do wonder about it. I have trouble getting the core of this roster to 2025 or beyond.
Then we can look at Dubas position: if he doesn't get out of the first round, he's going to be looking for another job. Ditto for Keefe. Who can really fault him for burning a few picks trying to keep his job in a very tough situation: facing Tampa again. If MLSE didn't want that to happen, they should have cut him loose last summer. If I were in his position, I'd probably be doing something similar.
Dappleganger said:
I do not see Murray getting claimed off waivers. But ..
They would have to have two goalies so Woll's $0.77 salary, for example, would offset a bunch of the $1.075 mil savings from Murray's waiving. They would still be short -> $0.76 mil over the cap (if my numbers are accurate).
They can sign Knies and keep him in the AHL until the playoffs to save that $ (though not good for Knies if they're hoping to use him in the playoffs - which I think we would all like to see ... I think he is leading in Hobey Baker votes ...).
But if Murray comes back before the end of the season, they're going to have to do something else to get under the cap unless someone else goes on LTIR.
If they had persuaded Chicago to eat ~$230k of Lafferty's contract, they could have waived Aston-Reese to get there because they would not have to replace him but Aston-Reese may well not clear waivers as an economical 4th line physical player.
If they were to waive or trade Kerfoot or Engvall (or any skater salary over ~$1.07 mil), they could get under the cap (barely if waived and if my numbers are right ..).
Kerfoot seems to have been a Keefe favorite. He was/is a Swiss Army knife. But with what they've done with the roster, they do not need him so much:
- O'Reilly & Acciari were the #1,#2 PKers on the Blues, Lafferty was #1 PKer on the Hawks and the Leafs have Marner, Jarnkrok & Kampf as experienced PKers
- Adding center O'Reilly to centers Matthews, Tavares & Kampf with Acciari & Lafferty also better at faceoffs, we don't need Kerfoot's poor faceoff % any longer.
- given the above, Kerfoot's .41 ppg scoring is not so impossible to replace - maybe with someone a little more physically robust ...
The negative to this is Kerfoot seems to be well liked by his teammates and coach - a chemistry risk and he seems to elevate for the playoffs. He is a UFA at the end of the season so ...
One might make an argument for Engvall but his contract is less $ and he has some size (not that he uses it as much as they probably wish he would).
Given all Dubas has done, this might be crazy but I'm not sure Dubas is done because he can't get it all under the cap. Moving Kerfoot makes a bunch of sense to me. It would solve his cap problem. It could provide room for Knies to get some NHL games in. It could get them a top 6/9 left winger that would allow them to roll three lines that could score with O'Reilly, Tavares & Matthews each centering one.
It's been a remarkable trade deadline for the Leafs but it might not be over ...
mr grieves
New member
Nik said:
As for "Generally unwilling to fix the error," where was the off-ramp once Lou decided to 'go for it' in Matthews's rookie season? I look at the season following, and think maybe if they'd learned the lesson, they'd trade Bozak and JvR, they don't bring in Plekanec and so they'd have -- a couple middling prospects? Are we that far ahead?
I tend to think cap management wasn't great, but the pandemic is what turned it into a situation where the Leafs are at a real competitive disadvantage.
As to what that has to do with these trades, they will never, with this core, be closer than they are now, so might as well. I like what they've added and am more excited for this postseason than any since uhmmm 2004?
Guilt Trip
Active member
My understanding is if Knies signs after the deadline he can't be sent down. Abruzesse was in the same boat last year no or do I have it wrong?
Bill_Berg
Active member
Nik said:
Part of the ducking teams mentality is just the desperation to win a round. Had the Leafs made a couple second rounds or a conf final, the mindset would be well you have to go through those teams at some point. I mean even in a 1-16 format, you may get an easy match-up in the round one, but then what?
It's also a little boring knowing who you're going to play in the first round before Christmas.
Kin
New member
mr grieves said:
I'm not sure it necessarily would yield much in terms of meaningful discussion if we got granular about what other assets the Leafs might have had if they'd corrected course. Between having better situated draft picks of their own and the use of additional picks whether it be as potential players at the NHL level or as currency for adding established players. Realistically the possibilities are endless. It's why I purposely went with "try and fix" there instead of "fix". I'm not necessarily saying the path is easy and obvious towards getting to where I'd prefer them to be, really more just making a statement about where they are.
This is an organization that has been pushing their chips in, if you'll pardon the metaphor, with a hand that's along the lines of three 7's. They've done this to an extent that they're now in the midst of what will be a six year stretch where the only 1st round pick they'll make will have been Amirov.
Again, I hope that one year that hand proves good enough to take them somewhere. But if it doesn't, I don't think it will take much of an autopsy to figure out what went wrong.
Guilt Trip said:
I'm not positive. It may be that he/they has to choose.
For AHL playoffs, a NCAA drafted prospect could be added to the Clear Day roster for their playoffs as I recall.
Abruzzese was signed in later March but did not appear on the roster until early April. They had some sort of ability to have signed him but not have him on the NHL roster and therefore, not count against the cap for a period of time - which is the important consideration here for Knies.
If they do not make cap space for Knies, they will have to do something like that and his first NHL game could very well be in a Leafs playoff game. That is part of the reason why I think they are going to do something to clear some cap space.
Dubas went down to watch him play last Saturday or so. He's not doing that just before the playoffs, during the final days of the trade deadline, if he's not pretty interested in Knies availability for these playoffs.
A winger with Knies size probably has the best chance of helping directly out of the NCAA compared with a center, defenseman or goalie - though his chances of impact are not great. But they would be crazy not to give him a chance.
ZBBM
Active member
cw said:
This.
They just spent quite a lot to insulate themselves from having to possibly run both Liljegren and Sandin in the same game and have them get torched by a ferocious playoff-like forecheck like they did last game against Boston. That had to get Dubas's attention.
My guess is that Knies will be in the lineup for G1 because he can be on the sending end of those fearsome forechecks. You are right cw, of all the player types that could step in and make a positive impact (not necessarily a BIG positive impact, but positive nonetheless), he's it.
ZBBM
Active member
I think all this is indeed pretty simple: it all comes down to this being Dubas/Keefe's last crack at winning a round. If they can't get it done against TB, not only are they gone, but the new GM will be making some major roster changes. NMCs or not, people like Reilly could be told they are no longer in the plan.
Redleaf
Active member
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
I sincerely hope not. Dubas has iced very, very competitive teams during his time as GM with the Leafs. No, he hasn?t gotten past the first round yet but other than maybe one or two of the opponents they?ve faced, most of first rounds were essentially against Stanley Cup finalists and champions. That?s hardly a tell-tale sign of incompetence as GM. It?s more the luck of the draw.
But with the way our luck rolls as Leaf fans, you?re probably right. He?ll be canned, picked up by another team, and eventually win several Stanley cups as some other teams general manager.
We?ll be stuck again with some conventional manager who sells off our star players for futures as we sink to the middle of the pack, and have another decade or two of mediocrity.
Guilt Trip said:
This is accurate, for the record. From former twitter CBA guru-turned Carolina Hurricane CBA guru:
https://twitter.com/EarlSchwartz27/status/1508561371805499393
Even if they aren't planning on having Knies in the line-up for game 1 of the playoffs, both sides will likely want to get him signed to burn off a year of his contract. So that's some additional cap space Dubas might need to create.
Guilt Trip
Active member
Thx CTB.CarltonTheBear said:
OldTimeHockey
Active member
L K said:
I mean, looking at that, there's noone that really has an "easy out" other than maybe Carolina. The NYR vs NJ series is going to be intense if it lines up. And who really wants to pull Malkin and Crosby in the first round?