Luongo

[Corn Flake]

I'm just not seeing anything of value going back to Vancouver IF this deal goes down.  They've got themselves quite the messy situation between Luongo and Schnieder, and Lou's deal is fairly dreadful.  If anything, I can see an asset coming to the Leafs for this deal to make sense.

I'll make you a bet the Canucks come out with a nice piece (or two).  A lot of people were saying Jeff Carter could be had cheap but he ended up costing Jack Johnson and a 1st round pick.

No matter what people think of the situation Vancouver will not be giving Luongo away.  They will still end up with a fairly nice piece in the end.

Their respective situations are so different though.  Age, NTC, position, Luongo losing his job to younger/cheaper/better player, under microscope every waking moment, might only be 1-2 teams he could be traded to.  And the return for Carter wasn't that great.  It was good but far far less than he cost CBJ only months earlier.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

If it does happen, I'd say it goes for way, way less than what is predicted out there in VanLand.

Luongo and Raymond for McArthur, Franson, Rynaas and next years 2nd pick or something in that range is what I'm thinking.

 

[Kin]

I'll make you a bet the Canucks come out with a nice piece (or two).  A lot of people were saying Jeff Carter could be had cheap but he ended up costing Jack Johnson and a 1st round pick.

No matter what people think of the situation Vancouver will not be giving Luongo away.  They will still end up with a fairly nice piece in the end.

As established, there's a big difference between trading for a 27 year old whose contract runs until he's 36 and trading for a 33 year old whose contract takes him to 42. The Kings could be relatively confident that they were paying for Carter's prime years and that his poor showing in Columbus was as much about his surroundings as anything else.

If Carter had been offered for nothing by the Blue Jackets, I'd imagine that dozens of teams would have inquired. Luongo? Honestly, if he's offered for nothing I would have to think very hard about taking on that contract.

Vancouver is going to have to deal with what the market is for Luongo and if there's only one team interested they get to set the market. Now, you might be right and Vancouver may decide that if they get an offer like Komisarek for Luongo and a second they'd rather keep an unhappy Luongo but the silence about teams interested in Luongo speaks volumes about his worth right now.

 

[cw]

If he believes it can go beyond the draft, it doesn't include the Leafs draft pick.

Yes and apparently 33 year old 2012 10-year contract Luongo is going to go for substantially more than 27 year old 2006 Luongo did when he went to Van in the first place.  Jokes.

Repeat after me, media....

There. Is. No. Freaking. Way. That. Pick. Will. Go. In. That. Trade. 
There. Is. No. Freaking. Way. Jake Gardiner. Will. Go. In. That. Trade.

/end.

That's a good point to consider as some sort of reference:
6/23/2006   Vancouver Canucks traded Todd Bertuzzi, Bryan Allen and Alex Auld to the Florida Panthers for Roberto Luongo, Lukas Krajicek and a 6th round selection in 2006.

Looking over the potential destinations, there do not seem to be a lot. In the East:
Florida has said they're not interested
New Jersey? Brodeur getting to the finals doesn't make him an obvious candidate to retire
Islanders seem set with Nabokov for another season
Ottawa seems set and probably doesn't want to spend that sort of dough
Winnipeg seems pretty well off with their situation and it's questionable they'd want to spend that sort of dough
Tampa has a need. EDIT: Yzerman has said they'll upgrade via UFA or draft - not trade - so they seem unlikely.
The rest seem set.

In the West:
I don't seem Anaheim spending that sort of dough and with Hiller likely to rebound from injury ...
Chicago might bite
Colorado seems ok and unlikely to spend that sort of dough because they're hurting financially
Columbus probably can't afford it
Edmonton have a need, a fit & might go for it sending Khabibulin the other way
San Jose might though they've got Niemi
The rest seem set.

And the list of possibilities gets even shorter because Luongo gets to provide a short list of where he's willing to go with his no trade clause. I don't see Columbus for example making his list. The shorter the list, the lower the talent likely being offered to take on his contract - the laws of supply and demand often apply.

GMs desperate to hang onto their jobs can get stupid so I suppose anything is possible. Odds are with his age and contract, they don't get a bunch for him. I know I wouldn't give up much young talent for him.

 

[Corn Flake]

Looking over the potential destinations, there do not seem to be a lot.

My list would be this (say he didn't have a NTC):

East: Florida, Ott, TB, NYI, Tor.
West: Chi, Det, Col, Edm, CBJ.

Those are teams who I think would be interested in Luongo as an upgrade to what they have today, simply based on the level of player he is and the need.  But if you factor in his age and his contract, that list gets even shorter, with probably NYI, Ott, Fla out due to the contract and Edm and CBJ dropping off because of his age and where they are in the rebuild. 

So we are left with: TB, Tor, Chi, Col and Det.

Yzerman has said publicly he's not interested. Said draft or UFA was where he would get his goalie.

Colorado is in bed with Varlamov for at least another year, I assume.

Detroit probably sticks with Howard for at least next year to see what post-Lidstrom life looks like.

That leaves Chicago and Toronto as suitors with TB as a maybe if Yzerman is playing coy.  Haven't heard whether Luongo has Chicago on his list or not.  Is Gillis going to trade Luongo to a competitor like Chi?  Seems unlikely.  Chi isn't giving up the farm for him either as they aren't in dire straits to make a dramatic improvement like the Leafs are.

I think its down to Tor, Chi and TB as an outside shot but even if Luongo could be traded anywhere, the list wouldn't be much longer.

 

[cw]

Looking over the potential destinations, there do not seem to be a lot.

My list would be this (say he didn't have a NTC):

East: Florida, Ott, TB, NYI, Tor.
West: Chi, Det, Col, Edm, CBJ.

Those are teams who I think would be interested in Luongo as an upgrade to what they have today, simply based on the level of player he is and the need.  But if you factor in his age and his contract, that list gets even shorter, with probably NYI, Ott, Fla out due to the contract and Edm and CBJ dropping off because of his age and where they are in the rebuild. 

So we are left with: TB, Tor, Chi, Col and Det.

Yzerman has said publicly he's not interested. Said draft or UFA was where he would get his goalie.

Colorado is in bed with Varlamov for at least another year, I assume.

Detroit probably sticks with Howard for at least next year to see what post-Lidstrom life looks like.

That leaves Chicago and Toronto as suitors with TB as a maybe if Yzerman is playing coy.  Haven't heard whether Luongo has Chicago on his list or not.  Is Gillis going to trade Luongo to a competitor like Chi?  Seems unlikely.  Chi isn't giving up the farm for him either as they aren't in dire straits to make a dramatic improvement like the Leafs are.

I think its down to Tor, Chi and TB as an outside shot but even if Luongo could be traded anywhere, the list wouldn't be much longer.

That's pretty close to how I feel about his possible destinations with the possible exception of Edmonton (if he'd put the Oilers on his list and the Canucks would do it). The Oilers have lots of quality youth - some they may be willing to part with. Add a goalie of Luongo's caliber and a quality UFA dman and they're likely to be a pretty competitive club for the next few years. But the Canucks probably wouldn't be very excited to trade Luongo within their division and on that basis, that discourages the possibility to quite a degree.

Having said the above, this article today has quite a few quotes from GM Gillis:
Debunking offseason Luongo myths

looks like they haven't even committed to the idea of dealing Luongo yet.

 

[bustaheims]

Having said the above, this article today has quite a few quotes from GM Gillis:
Debunking offseason Luongo myths

looks like they haven't even committed to the idea of dealing Luongo yet.

I'm not sure about that. The second that article said the bleacher report is usually pretty solid, it lost all credibility.

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

actually luongo to edmonton makes a lot of sense ...i doubt he'd want to go there ..but given the age of the team and the assets that might actually work

 

[Madferret]

Take the Sens of the list - Bob is all yours.

 

[cw]

Having said the above, this article today has quite a few quotes from GM Gillis:
Debunking offseason Luongo myths

looks like they haven't even committed to the idea of dealing Luongo yet.

I'm not sure about that. The second that article said the bleacher report is usually pretty solid, it lost all credibility.

Yes, that stuck out a little for me too.

But I don't think he's making up those quotes from Gillis.

Their position also makes some sense as they haven't signed RFA Schneider yet. I'd think they'd want him signed up before any serious develops with Luongo. Even if they're not being forthright about the dialogs, they can't get too committed until they've got Schneider's signature on a contract.

 

[Zee]

Having said the above, this article today has quite a few quotes from GM Gillis:
Debunking offseason Luongo myths

looks like they haven't even committed to the idea of dealing Luongo yet.

I'm not sure about that. The second that article said the bleacher report is usually pretty solid, it lost all credibility.

Yes, that stuck out a little for me too.

But I don't think he's making up those quotes from Gillis.

Their position also makes some sense as they haven't signed RFA Schneider yet. I'd think they'd want him signed up before any serious develops with Luongo. Even if they're not being forthright about the dialogs, they can't get too committed until they've got Schneider's signature on a contract.

I'd be more than mildly surprised if Luongo started next season with the Canucks.

 

[cw]

Having said the above, this article today has quite a few quotes from GM Gillis:
Debunking offseason Luongo myths

looks like they haven't even committed to the idea of dealing Luongo yet.

I'm not sure about that. The second that article said the bleacher report is usually pretty solid, it lost all credibility.

Yes, that stuck out a little for me too.

But I don't think he's making up those quotes from Gillis.

Their position also makes some sense as they haven't signed RFA Schneider yet. I'd think they'd want him signed up before any serious develops with Luongo. Even if they're not being forthright about the dialogs, they can't get too committed until they've got Schneider's signature on a contract.

I'd be more than mildly surprised if Luongo started next season with the Canucks.

I too think it's more likely than not he gets moved. But with his age, contract, somewhat erratic performance, a very limited number of destinations and an uncertain CBA environment, I wouldn't be completely shocked either. I'd guess a 10-20% chance he doesn't get moved.

 

[Corn Flake]

Having said the above, this article today has quite a few quotes from GM Gillis:
Debunking offseason Luongo myths

looks like they haven't even committed to the idea of dealing Luongo yet.

I'm not sure about that. The second that article said the bleacher report is usually pretty solid, it lost all credibility.

Anything that has come from Gillis suggesting he might not move Luongo sounds like weak posturing on his part.

 

[ZBBM]

I'm just not seeing anything of value going back to Vancouver IF this deal goes down.  They've got themselves quite the messy situation between Luongo and Schnieder, and Lou's deal is fairly dreadful.  If anything, I can see an asset coming to the Leafs for this deal to make sense.

I'll make you a bet the Canucks come out with a nice piece (or two).  A lot of people were saying Jeff Carter could be had cheap but he ended up costing Jack Johnson and a 1st round pick.

No matter what people think of the situation Vancouver will not be giving Luongo away.  They will still end up with a fairly nice piece in the end.

I'd take a bet like that, ern.  VAN is up against a big brick wall here.  The NTC, the contract size, the term, Lou's preferences ... all that conspires to tie Gillis' hands.  If I were Burke I wouldn't give up a single roster player (well, except Komi as a dump), and no 1sts, to get him.  Neither should any other team.  And if they do, then welcome Tommy Vokoun.

With respect to any possible deal for Luongo, Burke is absolutely in the driver's seat.  TOR (or any other team) doesn't HAVE to make a deal; Gillis does.

 

[hockeyfan1]

...Burke can simply say he would rather overpay Vokoun on a one-year deal at $5 mil than risk the Luongo contract that could bury him AND give up key assets in the process. 

It would have to be both an irrational and costly move to sign a Luongo and simultaneously incur the Leafs a huge contract, considering Burke's signings of several Leafs with large sums of money shelled out for hardly much in return (in terms of on-ice contributions by the likes of Komisarek, Connelly, Lombardi, Armstrong, etc).

This isn't to say that having a Luongo in net won't be of any help, it will, but, at what expense (for more than several reasons). 

If Burke desires a long-term signing with extreme faith in Luongo on being a Leaf down the road (to provide more than reliable netminding for the long-term), and if he somehow manages a trade that won't cost the team assets that can be replaced (via draft, for example), then it's safe to assume it may be doable in Burke's mind.

On the other hand, if the kids need to be given extra development  time (Scrivens, Reimer, et al), signing an experienced/good netminder along the lines of a Vokoun, Bernier, Harding or the likes, would be a far better, saner, safer option.

 

[Corn Flake]

On the other hand, if the kids need to be given extra development team time (Scrivens, Reimer, et al), signing an experienced/good netminder along the lines of a Vokoun, Bernier, Harding or the likes, would be a far better, saner, safer option.

At least at the goaltending position, I'm moving away from the "Just give the kids time" stance to the "assume the kids aren't going to ever be ready and make other plans.. if they end up emerging and taking over from a proven guy then yay for us."

Vokoun is the only stop gap I'm interested in. I liked Biron earlier but I'm not feeling as good about that now as I did earlier, mostly because the Luongo fan club is winning me over.

 

[Leafaholic99]

How great would it be to get Lou in a trade for next to nothing, and then win the cup with him as a key part in a few years, that would really piss of Canucks fans lol

 

[hockeyfan1]

How great would it be to get Lou in a trade for next to nothing, and then win the cup with him as a key part in a few years, that would really piss of Canucks fans lol

Fan-fabulous! 

 

[jonlleafs]

If it does happen, I'd say it goes for way, way less than what is predicted out there in VanLand.

Luongo and Raymond for McArthur, Franson, Rynaas and next years 2nd pick or something in that range is what I'm thinking.

I think that's more appropriate.  Or giving them Komisarek which is a lesser of two evils contract wise for the Canucks.  I can't see us giving them Scrivens at this point in time.

 

[Corn Flake]

How great would it be to get Lou in a trade for next to nothing, and then win the cup with him as a key part in a few years, that would really piss of Canucks fans lol

Just think of all the rioting.....until 11pm, when everyone in VanCity goes to bed.