Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap

[Kin]

Players who have low ceilings aren't in NHL CS's Top 10 European Skaters.

And players who are "low risk, high reward" get drafted in the top 3.

:  Yup, because there are less than four players in every draft who are low risk, high reward.

No, there are dozens of players guaranteed to have good NHL careers in every draft. GMs just pass on them because they're trying to get fired.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Just to see this all in one place:

2016

Rd	Pick	Player	Year	Position	Height	Weight
1	1	Auston Matthews	1997 (D-0)	C	6'2"	216 lbs
2	31	Yegor Korshkov	1996 (D+2)	RW	6'3"	179 lbs
2	57	Carl Grundstrom	1997 (D-0)	LW	6'0"	194 lbs
3	62	Joseph Woll	1998 (D-0)	G	6'3"	196 lbs
3	72	J.D. Greenway	1998 (D-0)	LD	6'4"	205 lbs
4	92	Adam Brooks	1996 (D+2)	C	5'11"	176 lbs
4	101	Keaton Middleton	1998 (D-0)	LD	6'5"	234 lbs
5	122	Vladimir Bobylev	1997 (D+1)	LW/C	6'2"	203 lbs
6	152	Jonathan "Jack" Walker	1996 (D+2)	LW	5'11"	179 lbs
6	179	Nicolas Mattinen	1998 (D-0)	RD	6'4"	220 lbs
7	182	Nikolai Chebykin	1997 (D+1)	LW/RW	6'3"	209 lbs

2015

Rd	Pick	Player	Year	Position	Height	Weight
1	4	Mitch Marner	1997 (D-0)	C/RW	5'11"	163 lbs
2	34	Travis Dermott	1996 (D-0)	LD	5'11"	196 lbs
2	61	Jeremy Bracco	1997 (D-0)	RW/C	5'9"	172 lbs
3	65	Andrew Nielsen	1996 (D-0)	LD	6'3"	207 lbs
3	68	Martins Dzierkals	1997 (D-0)	LW/RW	5'11"	170 lbs
4	95	Jesper Lindgren	1997 (D-0)	RD	6'0"	161 lbs
5	125	Dmytro Timashov	1996 (D-0)	LW/RW	5'10"	187 lbs
6	155	Stephen Desrocher	1996 (D+1)	LD	6'4"	198 lbs
7	185	Nikita Korostelev	1997 (D-0)	LW/RW	6'1"	194 lbs

Thanks for all the work to post this.  I was looking for something like this.

 

[herman]

Thanks for all the work to post this.  I was looking for something like this.

You're most welcome!

It's not that fun making tables by code*, but it was fun grabbing the data and seeing it all laid out to look for patterns. I considered adding scoring stats, but there isn't much valid comparison there (and I'd go blind keeping the table tags sorted out).

* yes, I could have used Excel and just posted a screenshot, but that'd be tedious to edit in the event of necessary corrections.

 

[herman]

When I heard we picked Korshkov, I admit I thought

And then I saw his size and age and thought:

This must be a:

With more info now:

 

[TBLeafer]

When I heard we picked Korshkov, I admit I thought

And then I saw his size and age and thought:

This must be a:

With more info now:

Pretty much.  Great job on that 2015/16 draft table too!

 

[herman]

Pretty much.  Great job on that 2015/16 draft table too!

I thought this for pretty much every pick we made this year. Intrigue rising!
Thanks! Feel free to do whatever you want with it.

 

[Highlander]

Perhaps this is pure speculation but I really feel outside of skill and size the Leafs are looking for the most important intangible of grit and determination, the real fire in the belly stuff.  I guess we could say that about most of the guys available in the draft would have this to certain degrees but perhaps the Leaf picks where scouted with this intangible in mind. One would hope so.

 

[herman]

Perhaps this is pure speculation but I really feel outside of skill and size the Leafs are looking for the most important intangible of grit and determination, the real fire in the belly stuff.  I guess we could say that about most of the guys available in the draft would have this to certain degrees but perhaps the Leaf picks where scouted with this intangible in mind. One would hope so.

They should do gut checks and take tummy temps at the combines.

I think they scouted for the following:
- Skill projected potential
- Character: do they exhibit self-improvement, coachability, etc.?
- Development curve momentum: which part of the curve are they on? which direction are they headed? how quickly are they moving through that curve?

In addition, for goalies:
- Size
- Mobility/athleticism

A lot of the intangibles you mentioned, Highlander, are going to be captured in their character assessments. Are they good at the game because they love it and work at it? or are they just physically gifted and play it to make hay? I would call this the 'art' side of scouting which can't be done just by looking at the numbers.

Character can augment or be a detriment to the skills development. Ultimately, skills are what you draft for, and character determines the longevity and growth of how those skills project.

 

[Highlander]

better way to put it Herman as Character Assesment: Does this guy do the extra lap around the rink, 10 more pushups, does he always on every shift try to beat the other guy to the puck, never let up, always working at 100% and driving for more, kind of stuff.
As mentioned 99% of those drafted probably were the most competative guy on their bantam and midget teams.

I remember with they drafted Komorav and they said he was all grit and sandpaper with some scoring touch, they compared him to Kenny Linsman, "The Rat"? took him a while to get over the pond but that assesment was right on. Komorav is our Kenny The Rat.  LOL

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

This reddit thread followed a decent article about the value of Carl Grundstrom, I thought it had some good arguments.

https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/4qx6z0/achariya_is_carl_grundstr%C3%B6m_better_than_57th/

They talk about the idea that the Leafs drafted role players versus drafting BPA.

 

[herman]

They've certainly given us a lot to discuss. A forward-thinking organization by definition should go against the grain. Last year was easier to read because this year looks like Burke-redux on the surface.

 

[herman]

McKeen's Draft Review: Toronto
http://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-draft-review-grades-toronto-maple-leafs/

Grade:
A+: Landing the prospect considered by many to be the best in the draft, and eight in total who were in McKeen?s rankings gives the Leafs the top grade in this draft. This should one day be looked back on as the pivotal weekend in Toronto?s rebuilding process.

The grade is largely meaningless as well, thanks to Auston Matthews' value overshadowing anything that happened after.

Like all Draft-day scouting reports, it is a bit too effusive, but take a look at the draft list table that compares the pick slot vs McKeen's projected ranking. We were definitely working off a non-traditional book.

 

[herman]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/07/04/toronto-maple-leaf-fans-got-bloo-bloo-blue/

and here's a good look at that non-traditional book.

Unsurprising Surprise #3: Oh my God, the Bloo Bloo I heard this summer around the Leafs taking these over-age kids.

Now, it wasn?t like people had a great deal of analytical or empirical evidence to back up their preference for picking 18 year olds, as it turns out.

In fact, we laid out a few times that European kids and European leagues aren?t wired to produce ?peak product? at that age. Which means that you?re likely to find some Euopean gems turning up after age 18.

Now, guess who else understood that, and before us?

Right. Leaf super-scout Thommie Bergman.

Which is how he managed to gather such an extraordinary list of talent for the Leafs as over-agers, such as: Nik Kulemin, Leo Komarov, Anton Stralman, Carl Gunnarsson and Viktor Stalberg, and more recently Rinat Valiev and Viktor Loov. Plus Nikita Soshnikov and Nikita Zaitsev, of course, who were never drafted at all. And before that, the older names, such as Danny Markov, Fredrik Modin, Sergey Berezin, Nikolai Borschevsky and Boris Mironov.

Oh wait, guess who else understood that European talent often doesn?t show itself until after the age of 18?

I?ll bet you can guess. Let?s play, ?What do the following names have in common??

• Nik Lidstrom
• Sergei Fedorov
• Vladimir Konstantinov
• Pavel Datsyuk
• Tomas Holmstrom
• Johan Franzen
• Nik Kronwall
• Gustav Nyquist
• Alexey Marchenko [Detroit rookie defenceman]
• Mattias Janmark [15 goals as a rookie for Dallas this year]

That?s right, folks. The majority of Detroit?s amazing European talent haul has come from over-age picks. Year over year, they quietly pick the talent from Europe?s overagers.

Only now Shanny and the Leafs have joined in.

 

[Highlander]

I think outside of Matthews we may see 3 others on the Leafs one day and that is not a bad draft at all.

 

[Bullfrog]

I hope you're right, but I think that might be a tad optimistic. It's happened before, of course, but I don't have high hopes. Which is fine, because it'd be ok if Matthews alone makes it.

 

[herman]

Leaf drafts and their picks that made it!
2000: Brad Boyes; Mikael Tellqvist
2001: Carlo Colaiacovo; Jay Harrison; Kyle Wellwood
2002: Alex Steen; Matt Stajan; Ian White
2003: John Mitchell
2004:
2005: Tuuka Rask; Anton Stralman
2006: Jiri Tlusty; Nikolai Kulemin; James Reimer; Viktor Stalberg; Leo Komarov
2007: Matt Frattin (sort of); Carl Gunnarsson
2008: Luke Schenn (sort of); Jimmy Hayes
2009: Nazem Kadri
2010:
2011:
2012: Morgan Rielly
2013: TBD
2014: TBD
2015: TBD
2016: TBD

If history is an indicator, at least one would be very, very nice.

 

[Kin]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/07/04/toronto-maple-leaf-fans-got-bloo-bloo-blue/

and here's a good look at that non-traditional book.

In fact, we laid out a few times that European kids and European leagues aren?t wired to produce ?peak product? at that age. Which means that you?re likely to find some Euopean gems turning up after age 18.

This is not what "likely" means.

• Nik Lidstrom
• Sergei Fedorov
• Vladimir Konstantinov
• Pavel Datsyuk
• Tomas Holmstrom
• Johan Franzen
• Nik Kronwall
• Gustav Nyquist
• Alexey Marchenko [Detroit rookie defenceman]
• Mattias Janmark [15 goals as a rookie for Dallas this year]

That?s right, folks. The majority of Detroit?s amazing European talent haul has come from over-age picks. Year over year, they quietly pick the talent from Europe?s overagers.

Now, admittedly, I'm not exactly a technological or geopolitical expert but if you work off of the assumption that certain things have changed in Europe over the last 25 years or so(I don't know if that's true, things seem a little bumpy over the last week though) you might also be inclined to note that the only real impact players on that list are the guys drafted a long time ago, by a very different Red Wings staff. Other than that it's mostly ok players who we probably think of as being better than they are because they were on Detroit. Which seems like a fine aim for a pick if you're picking in the 4th round or lower.

Over the years though I'd be pretty comfortable putting up 18 year olds taken in the 2nd round vs. overagers.

 

[herman]

Now, admittedly, I'm not exactly a technological or geopolitical expert but if you work off of the assumption that certain things have changed in Europe over the last 25 years or so(I don't know if that's true, things seem a little bumpy over the last week though) you might also be inclined to note that the only real impact players on that list are the guys drafted a long time ago, by a very different Red Wings staff. Other than that it's mostly ok players who we probably think of as being better than they are because they were on Detroit. Which seems like a fine aim for a pick if you're picking in the 4th round or lower.

Over the years though I'd be pretty comfortable putting up 18 year olds taken in the 2nd round vs. overagers.

I think I'm in a similar boat.

I liked some of his observations (e.g. European leagues designed to peak after 18; possession-heavy game style. The overage European market is no longer a one-team field, so the pickings are going to be naturally slimmer now, than when the Red Wings made hay.

In any case, I like that our team is targeting players with upside that they believe have fixable flaws (like home buying) and dipping into pools that are often ignored due to lack of information (hence our lack of conclusive information on these players). Hunter declining to pick from the CHL pool (one he knows extremely well) in the earlier rounds is pretty telling of his opinion of that draft class.

 

[herman]

So far, it doesn't seem like Hunter is as high on some of the players that our board has liked in the bottom 1/2nd round these past two years: Kylington, Girard, Konecny, Dineen, Roy, Sprong, Abramov, etc.

 

[Kin]

Hunter declining to pick from the CHL pool (one he knows extremely well) in the earlier rounds is pretty telling of his opinion of that draft class.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority