Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap

[CarltonTheBear]

So far, it doesn't seem like Hunter is as high on some of the players that our board has liked in the bottom 1/2nd round these past two years: Kylington, Girard, Konecny, Dineen, Roy, Sprong, Abramov, etc.

That'll definitely be an interesting list of players to check up on in 3 years.

 

[herman]

Hunter declining to pick from the CHL pool (one he knows extremely well) in the earlier rounds is pretty telling of his opinion of that draft class.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

I'm aware. Not saying he's right or wrong, just observing his pattern.

He leans on the CHL list a bit further down the draft though, where such familiarity is more of an advantage.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Hunter declining to pick from the CHL pool (one he knows extremely well) in the earlier rounds is pretty telling of his opinion of that draft class.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

Except that's not an example of that.  herman is opining based on what he's perceived to have occurred, not saying Hunter has a stated position and is therefore correct due to his claimed authority.

 

[Kin]

So far, it doesn't seem like Hunter is as high on some of the players that our board has liked in the bottom 1/2nd round these past two years: Kylington, Girard, Konecny, Dineen, Roy, Sprong, Abramov, etc.

That'll definitely be an interesting list of players to check up on in 3 years.

Although it's probably worth mentioning in that regard that I think a lot of the people advocating for those picks did so on the basis of them being high upside picks as opposed to safer ones.

Until I see any sort of concrete evidence that any method, or even any person, has really nailed the evaluation of draft eligible players "we're shooting blind, we might as well shoot high" doesn't seem like much of a statement to hold someone to.

 

[Kin]

Except that's not an example of that.  herman is opining based on what he's perceived to have occurred, not saying Hunter has a stated position and is therefore correct due to his claimed authority.

It's only through repeating the words that we find our inner peace and it becomes mantra.

 

[L K]

The "Shanaplan" deserves every opportunity to prove success or failure.  It doesn't mean that we all have to endorse the plan regardless of what happens in the mean time.  That the Leafs are being run better than a GM structure that threw away high draft picks and built a team around players that didn't fit the salary cap era isn't really proof positive of anything at this point.

I'm thoroughly excited about a good number of our forward prospects.  I'm less thrilled at our defense and goaltending future.  (Come to think of it, that's usually a mark of the Hunter drafts in the OHL too!)

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Except that's not an example of that.  herman is opining based on what he's perceived to have occurred, not saying Hunter has a stated position and is therefore correct due to his claimed authority.

It's only through repeating the words that we find our inner peace and it becomes mantra.

I'll admit I have no idea how that addresses his fair observation.

 

[Bullfrog]

The "Shanaplan" deserves every opportunity to prove success or failure.  It doesn't mean that we all have to endorse the plan regardless of what happens in the mean time.  That the Leafs are being run better than a GM structure that threw away high draft picks and built a team around players that didn't fit the salary cap era isn't really proof positive of anything at this point.

I'm thoroughly excited about a good number of our forward prospects.  I'm less thrilled at our defense and goaltending future.  (Come to think of it, that's usually a mark of the Hunter drafts in the OHL too!)

I think that's a fair assessment. But nonetheless, it's a cause for optimism for me.

 

[herman]

Until I see any sort of concrete evidence that any method, or even any person, has really nailed the evaluation of draft eligible players "we're shooting blind, we might as well shoot high" doesn't seem like much of a statement to hold someone to.

This is fair. My observation re: those pet picks has more to do with our perception and defied expectations than any judgment on Hunter's work.

The "Shanaplan" deserves every opportunity to prove success or failure.  It doesn't mean that we all have to endorse the plan regardless of what happens in the mean time.  That the Leafs are being run better than a GM structure that threw away high draft picks and built a team around players that didn't fit the salary cap era isn't really proof positive of anything at this point.

Haha, the high hurdle of "not being an idiot".

 

[herman]

Vladmir Bobylev (5th rder) has signed for 2 years with KHL's HC Spartak Moscow, per PPP/Scott Wheeler | link.

Along with Korshkov (KHL), Grundstrom (SHL), Woll (NCAA), Greenway (NCAA), and Chebykin (KHL?), I think we've got some extra runway with 6 of the 2016 picks in terms of committing SPC slots.

Does anyone know the CBA stuff about when we need to lock down players drafted out of Euro/signed with Euro leagues?

 

[herman]

Yegor Korshkov at the World Juniors, where recency bias reigns supreme, courtesy of /r/leafs.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRErOrnowiU[/youtube]

It's just one play, but I can definitely see why we picked him up that high (he wouldn't have made it to our next pick). His shot fake and spin is on Zach Werenski.

 

[Kin]

He sure looks like a man among boys.

 

[Highlander]

great move on that play

 

[herman]

http://theleafsnation.com/2015/6/24/why-player-age-may-shape-the-maple-leafs-approach-to-the-2015-nhl-draft

An old post that references older work by members of the analytics department prior to their hires highlighting potential market inefficiencies in the younger end of the draft age spectrum.

This year's draft seemed to go in the opposite extreme -- extra old overlooked players because they were already tainted with being deemed unworthy previously.

 

[bustaheims]

This year's draft seemed to go in the opposite extreme -- extra old overlooked players because they were already tainted with being deemed unworthy previously.

Which, interestingly enough, he touches upon where he quotes his previous work (as narcissistic as that seems), noting that age 20+ draftees produce players that over-perform their draft slot at a similar to rate to the youngest draft eligible players.

 

[TBLeafer]

Had me excited there for a sec.  I thought for a moment that you went back and found an analysis piece put together by Cam Charron. 

 

[herman]

This year's draft seemed to go in the opposite extreme -- extra old overlooked players because they were already tainted with being deemed unworthy previously.

Which, interestingly enough, he touches upon where he quotes his previous work (as narcissistic as that seems), noting that age 20+ draftees produce players that over-perform their draft slot at a similar to rate to the youngest draft eligible players.

Hah, I didn't click those links as there was no overt reference to over-agers in the link text.
http://canucksarmy.com/2012/6/15/nhl-draft-mike-gillis-and-player-age

What Rob's data shows is extremely interesting for our purposes. First off, his findings indicate that older 18 year olds are overvalued at the draft. Whenever a definable group appears to be overvalued, that means that there's probably a market inefficiency that an aware General Manager can exploit, in this case by drafting the youngest group of players on the board in later rounds.

[...]

Statistically speaking, Mike Gillis' habit of drafting older players in later rounds puts the Canucks at a slight disadvantage. Again according to Rob's data, as a group, the youngest players drafted in later rounds outperform their draft slot by the most, and individually, produce the highest rate of over-performers. The oldest players (20+) rarely outperform their draft slot, though, they do produce individual over-performers at a comparable rate as the youngest group - and at a higher rate than any of the middle groupings.

 

[Kin]

Matthews is an older 18 year old, right?

 

[herman]

Matthews is an older 18 year old, right?

Like the oldest one at this year's draft, I would imagine, if he missed last year's cut off by two days.

The market inefficiency stuff really only comes into effect in the absence of clearer performance history, right?

 

[Kin]

Matthews is an older 18 year old, right?

Like the oldest one at this year's draft, I would imagine, if he missed last year's cut off by two days.

Pffft. No wonder he's not going to get those bonuses.