Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs

[CarltonTheBear]

That's a big one for me. It's one thing for lesser assets to be moved for picks in future drafts rather than the upcoming one - especially since they'll be returning later round picks that generally have a more varied development schedule - but significant pieces need to return more immediate pieces. Not getting high quality and relatively immediate returns for your high value assets is part of the reason teams end up in the perpetual rebuild black hole. Obviously, the team shouldn't just accept any deal, but if there's a good deal on the table for Kessel this summer, I think the team has to take it.

The risk/reward of waiting another season just doesn't make any sense either. If Kessel has another 60-69 point season (probably unlikely, but you never know), his value absolutely craters. If he has another point-per-game season, maybe a GM looks at him a little bit better but then Kessel's 29 years old and there goes another one of Phil's prime scoring years, so his value likely wouldn't be any different than it is right now. If the team doesn't feel like Phil is in it's long-term plans they need to take whatever the best offer is this offseason. There's no sense in waiting.

 

[Kin]

The value is trading Kessel to a team where he is going to be the second or third best forward on a team that needs to win now or soon (like the Islanders).  Trade him to a team where he can play his style and succeed, and not have the pressure to be the number 1 option.  That's where I believe Kessel's value is.  Kessel has proven quite nicely that he can't be the best forward on a team and have success - that's why I want him gone if we can't find him a true number 1 center.

Being the second or third best forward on a team won't change that, in your mind, he's such a bad 5 on 5 player that the Leafs could conceivably improve in the standings by getting rid of him. Good teams play 5 on 5 hockey and a liability is a liability. There's really no way to reconcile those two things.

And Kessel has proven he can be the best player on a team and have success. The idea that he can be the best player on a team and the team will be great is unproven and unlikely but that's not the same thing.

 

[Kin]

This organization has  a vast history of underselling its assets, and not getting full value (McCabe/Sundin/Grabovski etc.). 

Also, just to dwell on this for a second, I think that one of the reasons you think the team has a "vast history of underselling is assets" is because you tend to compare what the team does return in a trade with what you think they should return based on your own conception of what a player is worth. But I think that even the least competent Leafs GM is competent enough to know what the market is for a player and trade him for the best return he can get.

We saw it at the deadline. People who were "disappointed" in the Franson/Santorelli trade because they thought Franson would fetch more. But what are they disappointed in? That they were wrong?

 

[Frank E]

That's a big one for me. It's one thing for lesser assets to be moved for picks in future drafts rather than the upcoming one - especially since they'll be returning later round picks that generally have a more varied development schedule - but significant pieces need to return more immediate pieces. Not getting high quality and relatively immediate returns for your high value assets is part of the reason teams end up in the perpetual rebuild black hole. Obviously, the team shouldn't just accept any deal, but if there's a good deal on the table for Kessel this summer, I think the team has to take it.

The risk/reward of waiting another season just doesn't make any sense either. If Kessel has another 60-69 point season (probably unlikely, but you never know), his value absolutely craters. If he has another point-per-game season, maybe a GM looks at him a little bit better but then Kessel's 29 years old and there goes another one of Phil's prime scoring years, so his value likely wouldn't be any different than it is right now. If the team doesn't feel like Phil is in it's long-term plans they need to take whatever the best offer is this offseason. There's no sense in waiting.

I coming around to this notion.

I have a feeling that many will be disappointed with the return for Kessel, but I don't think I'll be surprised if he goes for a top 10 first round pick, and maybe an overly-inflated salary bottom six guy.
 

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

That's a big one for me. It's one thing for lesser assets to be moved for picks in future drafts rather than the upcoming one - especially since they'll be returning later round picks that generally have a more varied development schedule - but significant pieces need to return more immediate pieces. Not getting high quality and relatively immediate returns for your high value assets is part of the reason teams end up in the perpetual rebuild black hole. Obviously, the team shouldn't just accept any deal, but if there's a good deal on the table for Kessel this summer, I think the team has to take it.

The risk/reward of waiting another season just doesn't make any sense either. If Kessel has another 60-69 point season (probably unlikely, but you never know), his value absolutely craters. If he has another point-per-game season, maybe a GM looks at him a little bit better but then Kessel's 29 years old and there goes another one of Phil's prime scoring years, so his value likely wouldn't be any different than it is right now. If the team doesn't feel like Phil is in it's long-term plans they need to take whatever the best offer is this offseason. There's no sense in waiting.

What do you think about Columbus' return for Nash being a benchmark?

 

[pmrules]

The value is trading Kessel to a team where he is going to be the second or third best forward on a team that needs to win now or soon (like the Islanders).  Trade him to a team where he can play his style and succeed, and not have the pressure to be the number 1 option.  That's where I believe Kessel's value is.  Kessel has proven quite nicely that he can't be the best forward on a team and have success - that's why I want him gone if we can't find him a true number 1 center.

Being the second or third best forward on a team won't change that, in your mind, he's such a bad 5 on 5 player that the Leafs could conceivably improve in the standings by getting rid of him. Good teams play 5 on 5 hockey and a liability is a liability. There's really no way to reconcile those two things.

And Kessel has proven he can be the best player on a team and have success. The idea that he can be the best player on a team and the team will be great is unproven and unlikely but that's not the same thing.

Sorry - I meant team success.  Kessel is the best player here and the Leafs have not had team success.  He himself has been quite successful.

 

[pmrules]

This organization has  a vast history of underselling its assets, and not getting full value (McCabe/Sundin/Grabovski etc.). 

Also, just to dwell on this for a second, I think that one of the reasons you think the team has a "vast history of underselling is assets" is because you tend to compare what the team does return in a trade with what you think they should return based on your own conception of what a player is worth. But I think that even the least competent Leafs GM is competent enough to know what the market is for a player and trade him for the best return he can get.

We saw it at the deadline. People who were "disappointed" in the Franson/Santorelli trade because they thought Franson would fetch more. But what are they disappointed in? That they were wrong?

I can't speak for everyone, but i think everyone has their own values on players.  And having those pre-defined values can lead to either happiness or disappointment when a player is moved and his actual value is finally defined for everyone to see.  That is just natural and what being a fan is all about. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

What do you think about Columbus' return for Nash being a benchmark?

I remember not loving the Nash deal from a Columbus perspective. They got a pair of effective 2nd/3rd line forwards, a decent prospect who didn't pan out, and a 1st rounder. Your standard 4 quarters for a dollar type trade. I'd much rather put all my eggs in one basket and try to get the single best prospect/young player possible. Somebody with top line, but not franchise player, type potential. Like the guys I brought up earlier. 

I remember a few months ago I said the return should be that type of prospect, a 1st rounder, and an ok young roster player (think Panik). Between me maybe overestimating there and Phil's value taking a bit of a hit, I'd downgrade that pick to a 2nd or a 3rd. The young roster guy wouldn't really be a deal breaker.

 

[Joe S.]

Phaneuf and Bernier for Weiss and Howard.

There, Done.

 

[Kin]

I remember not loving the Nash deal from a Columbus perspective. They got a pair of effective 2nd/3rd line forwards, a decent prospect who didn't pan out, and a 1st rounder. Your standard 4 quarters for a dollar type trade. I'd much rather put all my eggs in one basket and try to get the single best prospect/young player possible. Somebody with top line, but not franchise player, type potential. Like the guys I brought up earlier. 

The way I remember the Nash deal though they had two things working against them that the Leafs won't. For starters I think Nash had a full NTC and was pretty public about saying that there were teams he wouldn't go to(like, say, the Leafs) who could have driven the price up.

Also, I think Nash was pretty public about wanting to be gone. So Columbus couldn't really engage the Rangers in a game of chicken. While I think the Leafs would be foolish to bring Kessel back, that is a card they can play if there's a team out there who really wants him.

 

[jdh1]

Phaneuf and Bernier for Weiss and Howard.

There, Done.

Your kidding are you not.

 

[Al14]

Phaneuf and Bernier for Weiss and Howard.

There, Done.

Your kidding are you not.

He better be kidding, cause, that trade stinks for us!

 

[Highlander]

Give us da picks for those boys.

 

[Britishbulldog]

So I think I am finally getting what a rebuild means in terms of trades.  You go for future picks and assets in exchange for the current depth.  I was always trading Kessel and Phaneuf for players only a few years younger.  Here is my new plan:

Phaneuf and Percy to Carolina for 2015 1st round pick (5th Overall), Alexander Semin and Brad Malone

Kessel to NJ for 2015 1st round pick (6th Overall) and 2016 2nd round pick

What team needs Bernier?  Edm?  Dallas?  Buffalo?

What team needs Bozak?

I hope that Arizona takes Crouse.

Leafs draft Hanifin, Strome and Marner with the 4th - 6th.  Draft Brandon Carlo at 24th.  Leave all in lower leagues to develop.

JVR / Bozak / Semin
Lupul / Kadri / Panik
Komarov / Holland / Stewart ufa 
ufa / Malone / Kozun (Leivo, etc)

Rielly / Robidas
Gardiner / Polak
Marlie / Marlie

Reimer
ufa

 

[Bender]

So I think I am finally getting what a rebuild means in terms of trades.  You go for future picks and assets in exchange for the current depth.  I was always trading Kessel and Phaneuf for players only a few years younger.  Here is my new plan:

Phaneuf and Percy to Carolina for 2015 1st round pick (5th Overall), Alexander Semin and Brad Malone

Kessel to NJ for 2015 1st round pick (6th Overall) and 2016 2nd round pick

What team needs Bernier?  Edm?  Dallas?  Buffalo?

What team needs Bozak?

I hope that Arizona takes Crouse.

Leafs draft Hanifin, Strome and Marner with the 4th - 6th.  Draft Brandon Carlo at 24th.  Leave all in lower leagues to develop.

JVR / Bozak / Semin
Lupul / Kadri / Panik
Komarov / Holland / Stewart ufa 
ufa / Malone / Kozun (Leivo, etc)

Rielly / Robidas
Gardiner / Polak
Marlie / Marlie

Reimer
ufa

This isn't happening and you know it isn't happening.

 

[Tigger]

Waddaya mean Bender, the Leafs could sign Stewart...

 

[Britishbulldog]

Waddaya mean Bender, the Leafs could sign Stewart...

;D

I would actually be surprised if any Leaf was traded but I have finally become cynical after many years hanging out at the penalty box.  Sad to say but I don't if post much anymore.  The Leafs aren't interesting anymore.  Just pathetic.

 

[Highlander]

Hey BBB, the darkness is always the darkest just before the light.  I am very optimistic about the immediate future, we have Shanahan, Dubas and Hunter, many trades are coming and this team will be much much different in September.
Our minor league teams will be more stocked with potential good players and left with the time to develop properly in the minors. This is Dubas mantra, no one is getting rushed, no one. This means Nylander probably sees another half year to year in the Marlies as does Brown, Leipsic and many of the others.

 

[Bender]

Waddaya mean Bender, the Leafs could sign Stewart...

;D

I would actually be surprised if any Leaf was traded but I have finally become cynical after many years hanging out at the penalty box.  Sad to say but I don't if post much anymore.  The Leafs aren't interesting anymore.  Just pathetic.

You don't think a season where half of the scouting staff, coach, assistant coaches, GM were all fired, with the team now being run by a guy who is finally committed to a true rebuild and picking 4th overall isn't at all interesting??

This is the most interesting time for the Leafs since Carlyle couldn't figure out the toaster! And possibly since the '05 lockout.

 

[Highlander]

BBB here is some of the light at the end of the tunnel, I know this should be in prospects but this guys first goal is totally sick:
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/5/16/8615243/watch-leafs-prospect-dakota-joshua-score-three-excellent-goals