Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs
- Thread starter BlueWhiteBlood
- Start date
AvroArrow said:
Yeah, I think that I've said Provorov in the past too, but that's likely just because I'm more comfortable going with CHL players generally speaking. I'd be happy with either.
LuncheonMeat said:Think of it more as Kessel for Barzal and $8 million in cap space for at least a few more years. It softens the blow a little bit.Besides, they'll need those extra $$$ to sign Stamkos a year from now.
I think the 6th pick would actually be pretty fair. The guy we'd pick won't have the ceiling that Phil does, but he'll still be a high-impact player whose 10 years younger and like you said would be significantly cheaper. I'd imagine we might have to take on a Zubrus or Ruutu to help the Devils fit Phil in but they both only have 1 year left on their deals.
Plus, imagine Carolina does something stupid like picks Crouse or a defenceman at 5 and we come away with 2 of Hanifin/Strome/Marner? Or we could try to move up from 6th to 5th if the Hurricanes for some reason aren't nuts about whose left at 5.
CarltonTheBear said:LuncheonMeat said:Think of it more as Kessel for Barzal and $8 million in cap space for at least a few more years. It softens the blow a little bit.
I think the 6th pick would actually be pretty fair. The guy we'd pick won't have the ceiling that Phil does, but he'll still be a high-impact player whose 10 years younger and like you said would be significantly cheaper. I'd imagine we might have to take on a Zubrus or Ruutu to help the Devils fit Phil in but they both only have 1 year left on their deals.
Plus, imagine Carolina does something stupid like picks Crouse or a defenceman at 5 and we come away with 2 of Hanifin/Strome/Marner? Or we could try to move up from 6th to 5th if the Hurricanes for some reason aren't nuts about whose left at 5.
If Carolina picks Crouse, then yes.
Although you could probably get the 6th while keeping Kessel to trade for other prospects. Say JVR and the nashville pick?
Kin
New member
pmrules said:
I think it's important to keep in mind the real potential for any actual improvement on his value. In the absolute best case scenario, Kessel has a big year and wipes away a bit of the stink of this year. Even then though, Kessel will also be a year older and the Leafs efforts towards the bottom of the draft will be hampered by virtue of having a guy of Kessel's ability having a terrific season for them. Maximizing their chances at the top of next year's draft is probably more valuable than any shift in Kessel's individual value.
Which isn't to say anything of the very real potential of Kessel having another lackluster season and his actual value dropping further. Considering that either of the popular explanations for why Kessel dropped off(a mental thing in response to the team's collapse, having to adjust to a new system) is likely to continue this year I think it's a better bet than not that Kessel doesn't have the bounce back year we'd hope for on a tanking team that's looking to shed talent.
So if Kessel's value really is the 6th pick right now, it's pretty hard to see a scenario where him on the team next year actually helps the Leafs and their rebuilding efforts.
pmrules said:
Is a 28-35 year old Phil Kessel making $8mil worth more than a 18-27 year old Matthew Barzal making likely an average of $3mil?
Maybe New Jersey has to throw in a kicker or two, but for a centrepiece I really don't think we're going to see anything better than Barzal/Provorov/Werenski in any deal for Kessel.
CarltonTheBear said:
This is what Jordan Staal got:
Traded from Pittsburgh Penguins to Carolina Hurricanes for Brian Dumoulin, Brandon Sutter and round 1 pick in the 2012 draft (Derrick Pouliot)
I think 2012 was considered a weaker draft than this. If the Leafs can get the 6th overall pick and get rid of some of that contract, giddy up.
Kin
New member
Significantly Insignificant said:
Yeah, and while it's tempting to look at what Staal went for and say that it's "more" than the 6th overall pick I'd guess that's basically the difference between the guy being 24 or 28 and the difference between the player coming off his best pro season and his worst.
Nik the Trik said:
Yeah, my thinking was that Staal was younger, and his contract was coming up so you could sign him to what you wanted to, which is why he fetched more assets, but then he also tied Pittsburgh hands a little bit by stating that he was only going to sign an extension in Carolina. I threw it out there just as a comparable of what someone from Kessels draft year got. What Staal got is probably the absolute most that Kessel would ever get, and I think it is more than likely to be a lot less.
Speaking of Piitsburgh, if they ever moved Malkin somewhere, do you think they would want to deal for Kessel? The talk is that they want to upgrade their wingers. Or would they want someone who was younger and cheaper, and they would use Malkin to get that younger and cheaper winger?
Off-topic, but man that Pittsburgh trade would have looked a lot better if they didn't pass on Trouba, Forsberg, or Teravainen. It still amazes me that those 2 forwards in particular dropped to where they did.
CarltonTheBear said:
I think your $ value assessment would be correct for almost any prospect/draft pick that would come in. I'm not arguing that. I'm arguing to the value of the prospect coming back. I'm just saying I think we can do better than the names you listed in a straight up deal for Kessel.
If Jersey adds more, i guess it would depend on what the more is. Start with one of their top prospects not named Larsson. But straight up...I wouldn't do it. I'm still holding out for Jones if Nashville would ever deal with us again.
I also think Kessel would look good in the Isle/Brooklyn going forward playing with Tavares - The Isles have a lot of young talent and are likely playing for "now" as opposed to the future.
Kin
New member
Significantly Insignificant said:
Well, I think if Pittsburgh moved Malkin they would probably be getting multiple high level pieces coming back. The tricky thing about that though is that they'd still have Crosby and wouldn't be into rebuilding so while they might be interested in adding Kessel they almost certainly wouldn't have any single piece as valuable as the 6th overall pick that they'd be willing to build a trade around. They're not swimming in super valuable prospects and if they had really valuable young players, they'd keep them.
pmrules said:
As for Jones? Not happening. It's just not. If Kessel goes to Nashville it'll be Kevin Fiala, 11th overall pick last year.
As for the Islanders, yeah they might be looking at Kessel. Maybe you can pry away a Reinhart, Strome, or Dal Colle away from them. But only one of them would be the centrepiece to the deal. And aside from a potential family-connection with the Stromes if the Leafs draft Dylan, all of those names would be on a pretty similar level to someone like Barzal.
pmrules said:
You see, I think that this kind of shows the mistake that you're making. You want to trade a 28-35 year old Phil Kessel for a 17-21 year old equivalent of Phil Kessel. Teams just never do that. Or at least that's not generally considered a trade that would be fair value. We won't be able to trade Kessel for somebody who will one day be as good if not better than him.
I think that you realize that Jones is just a pipe dream, but let's dissect that a little bit more. Why would Nasvhille trade a 21-year old number 1 defenceman who is still years away from his prime for a 28-year old number 1 winger who is basically exiting his?