Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs

[Kin]

As for the Islanders, yeah they might be looking at Kessel. Maybe you can pry away a Reinhart, Strome, or Dal Colle away from them. But only one of them would be the centrepiece to the deal.

That's a big maybe too. I'd even say that the only one there's a real chance of is Dal Colle. Strome just had a really good NHL season as a 21 year. Kessel outscored him by 11 points.  Strome, among players with 500 minutes, ranked 14th in all of hockey in ES points per minute. Kessel was 163rd. Reinhart is a potential top pairing defenseman when they very much need one.

But more to the point you make in your follow-up post, I just think the idea that top young talent ever becomes surplus is an attitude that's really a relic from the pre-lockout days. Players like Strome and Dal Colle don't make each other expendable, they make guys like Okposo expendable. Having a steady stream of good, cheap talent that can be put into the line-up is what separates Chicago from Pittsburgh.

 

[ZBBM]

Jesus, the way this thread is going you'd think Kessel is about as valuable as an old dirty boot. Even I don't think that.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Jesus, the way this thread is going you'd think Kessel is about as valuable as an old dirty boot. Even I don't think that.

That's a strange way to feel about the 6th overall draft pick in what is considered the strongest draft in quite some time.

 

[ZBBM]

Jesus, the way this thread is going you'd think Kessel is about as valuable as an old dirty boot. Even I don't think that.

That's a strange way to feel about the 6th overall draft pick in what is considered the strongest draft in quite some time.

Which nobody seems to think we can get straight up?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Jesus, the way this thread is going you'd think Kessel is about as valuable as an old dirty boot. Even I don't think that.

That's a strange way to feel about the 6th overall draft pick in what is considered the strongest draft in quite some time.

Which nobody seems to think we can get straight up?

The argument here was whether New Jersey would have to add to that.

 

[ZBBM]

Jesus, the way this thread is going you'd think Kessel is about as valuable as an old dirty boot. Even I don't think that.

That's a strange way to feel about the 6th overall draft pick in what is considered the strongest draft in quite some time.

Which nobody seems to think we can get straight up?

The argument here was whether New Jersey would have to add to that.

And the talk that he's exiting his prime, he's in a 28 to 35 age bracket instead of just being 28 or however old he is?  Seems strange to me.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

And the talk that he's exiting his prime, he's in a 28 to 35 age bracket instead of just being 28 or however old he is?  Seems strange to me.

There's evidence that shows that a hockey players offensive peak generally happens at age 25, and a big drop happens after 29. So yes, Phil is probably exiting his prime in a year or two.

I never put Phil in some age bracket. Those are the ages that he'll be during the length of his contract, that's the Phil Kessel that a team will be acquiring. They need to take into consideration what type of player he'll be in the 2nd half of his contract.

 

[Kin]

Jesus, the way this thread is going you'd think Kessel is about as valuable as an old dirty boot. Even I don't think that.

That's a strange way to feel about the 6th overall draft pick in what is considered the strongest draft in quite some time.

Which nobody seems to think we can get straight up?

Seriously, who do you think has said that they don't think Kessel could get the 6th overall pick?

 

[bustaheims]

Jesus, the way this thread is going you'd think Kessel is about as valuable as an old dirty boot. Even I don't think that.

That's a strange way to feel about the 6th overall draft pick in what is considered the strongest draft in quite some time.

Which nobody seems to think we can get straight up?

The argument seems to be more that we can't expect the return to be much more than that/all the Devils are likely to add is a contract to even things out a little.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This is something that I was actually curious about when I brought up Kessel's prime originally in this thread, and since this WAS-NYR game has been a little boring I thought I'd look into it:

Over the past 10 years (since the lost season) the average age of a player who finished top-10 in points is 26.6. Age was determined by how old a player would be on December 31st, just the easiest and quickest way to go about figuring that out. Just out of my own curiosity I took Crosby and Ovechkin out of the picture, since they were present in basically every single year, the average age bumped to 27.1.

Kessel was a point-per-game, top-10 scorer in his 24, 25, and 26 year old seasons. There's a decent chance he won't accomplish either of those feats again in his career.

And to be clear about all this Kessel talk, I'm a huge fan of his. I'm not even necessarily convinced that the team absolutely has to trade him. We could be back in the playoffs in 3 years and by then Phil would still be a great player to have. But I'm pretty confident in all these things that I've said about him. We've likely already seen the best of his career.

 

[Kin]

This is something that I was actually curious about when I brought up Kessel's prime originally in this thread, and since this WAS-NYR game has been a little boring I thought I'd look into it:

Over the past 10 years (since the lost season) the average age of a player who finished top-10 in points is 26.6. Age was determined by how old a player would be on December 31st, just the easiest and quickest way to go about figuring that out. Just out of my own curiosity I took Crosby and Ovechkin out of the picture, since they were present in basically every single year, the average age bumped to 27.1.

Kessel was a point-per-game, top-10 scorer in his 24, 25, and 26 year old seasons. There's a decent chance he won't accomplish either of those feats again in his career.

A while back I, extremely unscientifically, went back and just sort of digged through the careers of top scorers to see when they had their best scoring years. There was a lot of variation, sure, but I was pretty surprised at how many players had their best scoring seasons at 22 or 23 or 24. A lot of players had their best overall seasons later but, yeah, it was definitely younger than I expected.

 

[pmrules]

Speaking of Piitsburgh, if they ever moved Malkin somewhere, do you think they would want to deal for Kessel?  The talk is that they want to upgrade their wingers.  Or would they want someone who was younger and cheaper, and they would use Malkin to get that younger and cheaper winger?

Well, I think if Pittsburgh moved Malkin they would probably be getting multiple high level pieces coming back. The tricky thing about that though is that they'd still have Crosby and wouldn't be into rebuilding so while they might be interested in adding Kessel they almost certainly wouldn't have any single piece as valuable as the 6th overall pick that they'd be willing to build a trade around. They're not swimming in super valuable prospects and if they had really valuable young players, they'd keep them.

I don't want to make this into a Kessel vs Malkin debate....but this is where you and I have a disconnect.  I agree with you that Malkin would return multiple high level pieces.  I guess that depends on what that vague multiple high level prospects means to you vs me.  That's not at issue. 

But then we are comparing Kessels return to what Jordan staal got and that Crouse/Barzal is what  Kessel is worth.  While I don't believe that Kessel is equivalent to Malkin in any way, I think he is worth more than what is being discussed.

 

[pmrules]

Jesus, the way this thread is going you'd think Kessel is about as valuable as an old dirty boot. Even I don't think that.

That's a strange way to feel about the 6th overall draft pick in what is considered the strongest draft in quite some time.

Which nobody seems to think we can get straight up?

The argument here was whether New Jersey would have to add to that.

And the talk that he's exiting his prime, he's in a 28 to 35 age bracket instead of just being 28 or however old he is?  Seems strange to me.

The ironic part is that I've wanted Kessel off this team since last off season when he was a large contributor to the last 15 games downfall last season. I'm not one of his biggest fans.

But I do believe he is our biggest asset, and I don't want to sell him low.

 

[ZBBM]

And the talk that he's exiting his prime, he's in a 28 to 35 age bracket instead of just being 28 or however old he is?  Seems strange to me.

There's evidence that shows that a hockey players offensive peak generally happens at age 25, and a big drop happens after 29. So yes, Phil is probably exiting his prime in a year or two.

I never put Phil in some age bracket. Those are the ages that he'll be during the length of his contract, that's the Phil Kessel that a team will be acquiring. They need to take into consideration what type of player he'll be in the 2nd half of his contract.

It's just that some of this stuff seems to me to be the mirror image of things you occasionally read where Kessel is characterized as a 40-goal scorer, when in fact he never has.  And may never.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It's just that some of this stuff seems to me to be the mirror image of things you occasionally read where Kessel is characterized as a 40-goal scorer, when in fact he never has.  And may never.

I really don't understand how that relates to anything that's been said in this conversation. What truths have been getting stretched here?

 

[Kin]

I don't want to make this into a Kessel vs Malkin debate....but this is where you and I have a disconnect.  I agree with you that Malkin would return multiple high level pieces.  I guess that depends on what that vague multiple high level prospects means to you vs me.  That's not at issue. 

But then we are comparing Kessels return to what Jordan staal got and that Crouse/Barzal is what  Kessel is worth.  While I don't believe that Kessel is equivalent to Malkin in any way, I think he is worth more than what is being discussed.

But I think you're misrepresenting what the disconnect is. You seem to be saying that where we differ is in how good a player/asset Kessel is and what that "deserves" when compared to other players. But I'm not saying what Kessel's value is, I don't know what it is, what I'm saying will dictate Kessel's trade value is what teams are willing to offer for him.

Additionally, you seem to think that if the league sets a certain trade value on Kessel and it's lower than what you think Kessel is "worth" because of how good he is, that holding onto him will somehow change that. What I, and I think to greater effect Carlton, have tried to point out is that Kessel's value is really only likely to decrease as he gets older and goes through another season where the team is tanking and, again, even if he does have a really great season I think whatever gains to his trade value would be offset by how it would negatively affect the tank.

 

[pmrules]

I don't want to make this into a Kessel vs Malkin debate....but this is where you and I have a disconnect.  I agree with you that Malkin would return multiple high level pieces.  I guess that depends on what that vague multiple high level prospects means to you vs me.  That's not at issue. 

But then we are comparing Kessels return to what Jordan staal got and that Crouse/Barzal is what  Kessel is worth.  While I don't believe that Kessel is equivalent to Malkin in any way, I think he is worth more than what is being discussed.

But I think you're misrepresenting what the disconnect is. You seem to be saying that where we differ is in how good a player/asset Kessel is and what that "deserves" when compared to other players. But I'm not saying what Kessel's value is, I don't know what it is, what I'm saying will dictate Kessel's trade value is what teams are willing to offer for him.

Additionally, you seem to think that if the league sets a certain trade value on Kessel and it's lower than what you think Kessel is "worth" because of how good he is, that holding onto him will somehow change that. What I, and I think to greater effect Carlton, have tried to point out is that Kessel's value is really only likely to decrease as he gets older and goes through another season where the team is tanking and, again, even if he does have a really great season I think whatever gains to his trade value would be offset by how it would negatively affect the tank.

Two things...

First, the whole discussion is about my vs. others opinion of the "value" of Kessel.  That is the discussion - if you don't have an opinion, and are just going to default to he's worth what someone else is willing to pay...well of course he is.  That's not news.  That's not really saying anything and not really an opinion of yours.  The real question for a  Leafs fan centric message board should be...what is that "value" of Kessel in the current market under the current circumstances.  That's where your opinion comes in.  Of the opinions provided (Kessel's value being the jordan staal trade or the #6 pick), my opinion is that Kessel is worth more than that.

Second - While I agree with the notion that Kessel isn't getting younger and that his production may decline,  I'd say that  having Kessel on this team as currently constructed has not hurt the tank and has provided a top 10 pick in 5 of the past 6 seasons.  (Leafs finished in drafting 2, 9, 5, 21, 8 and now 4).  I don't see how that would change in the upcoming season, if he were to somehow return - especially given the fact that he is older and is likely entering decline.  In fact, I'd be worried of the opposite:  we trade Kessel, and not surprisingly, improve our 5 on 5 play, which could, theoretically, result in more points.

This organization has  a vast history of underselling its assets, and not getting full value (McCabe/Sundin/Grabovski etc.).  Given the new era of trying to do things right, it really starts with trying to milk as much value as possible from our biggest tradeable asset.  That's all I'm getting at.  If all the Leafs can get is the #6 pick in a top 5 heavy draft...I'd have to really think about it, as I believe he is worth more. I still may do it...but I'd really think about it.

 

[Kin]

Second - While I agree with the notion that Kessel isn't getting younger and that his production may decline,  I'd rebut by saying that  having Kessel on this team as currently constructed has not hurt the tank and has provided a top 10 pick in 5 of the past 6 seasons.  (Leafs finished in drafting 2, 9, 5, 21, 8 and now 4).  I don't see how that would change in the upcoming season, if he were to somehow return - especially given the fact that he is older and is likely entering decline.

Except that supposes there's no difference between the #8 pick and the #6 or #5 or #1. Just "having a top 10 pick" doesn't mean the tank worked when you want as high a pick as possible and the margins between finishing 3rd or 5th or 9th can be as little as a few points. It's not a binary question. Without Kessel the Leafs almost certainly would have finished worse and had better draft picks. That's what you want to avoid for the coming season.

  In fact, I'd be worried of the opposite:  we trade Kessel, and not surprisingly, improve our 5 on 5 play, which could, theoretically, result in more points.

I really don't understand how you could possibly reconcile that as a legitimate worry, that a bad Leafs team would improve by getting rid of Kessel, with the idea that he's valuable on the trade market. That seems directly contradictory.

This organization has  a vast history of underselling its assets, and not getting full value (McCabe/Sundin/Grabovski etc.).  Given the new era of trying to do things right, it really starts with trying to milk as much value as possible from our biggest tradeable asset.  That's all I'm getting at.  If all the Leafs can get is the #6 pick in a top 5 heavy draft...I'd have to really think about it, as I believe he is worth more. I still may do it...but I'd really think about it.

Except, again, that's where we get back to the likelihood, or possibility even, that keeping Kessel could possibly result in his value increasing. And, again, that has to be weighed against the very real and indisputable things we know will happen if we keep Kessel, namely:

- The team will be better, and probably finish higher in the standings than they would otherwise.
- Other players will get less PP time, deflating their offensive statistics and possibly their own value
- Whatever draft picks you eventually trade Kessel for will be a year further removed from helping the club

So my point is that realistically, it doesn't really matter what Kessel is worth right now, maximizing his value involves trading him this summer.

 

[bustaheims]

- Whatever draft picks you eventually trade Kessel for will be a year further removed from helping the club

That's a big one for me. It's one thing for lesser assets to be moved for picks in future drafts rather than the upcoming one - especially since they'll be returning later round picks that generally have a more varied development schedule - but significant pieces need to return more immediate pieces. Not getting high quality and relatively immediate returns for your high value assets is part of the reason teams end up in the perpetual rebuild black hole. Obviously, the team shouldn't just accept any deal, but if there's a good deal on the table for Kessel this summer, I think the team has to take it.

 

[pmrules]

  In fact, I'd be worried of the opposite:  we trade Kessel, and not surprisingly, improve our 5 on 5 play, which could, theoretically, result in more points.

I really don't understand how you could possibly reconcile that as a legitimate worry, that a bad Leafs team would improve by getting rid of Kessel, with the idea that he's valuable on the trade market. That seems directly contradictory.

The value is trading Kessel to a team where he is going to be the second or third best forward on a team that needs to win now or soon (like the Islanders).  Trade him to a team where he can play his style and succeed, and not have the pressure to be the number 1 option.  That's where I believe Kessel's value is.  Kessel has proven quite nicely that he can't be the best forward on a team and have success - that's why I want him gone if we can't find him a true number 1 center.

I can understand how you might think that contradictory, but its not in my mind.

This organization has  a vast history of underselling its assets, and not getting full value (McCabe/Sundin/Grabovski etc.).  Given the new era of trying to do things right, it really starts with trying to milk as much value as possible from our biggest tradeable asset.  That's all I'm getting at.  If all the Leafs can get is the #6 pick in a top 5 heavy draft...I'd have to really think about it, as I believe he is worth more. I still may do it...but I'd really think about it.

Except, again, that's where we get back to the likelihood, or possibility even, that keeping Kessel could possibly result in his value increasing. And, again, that has to be weighed against the very real and indisputable things we know will happen if we keep Kessel, namely:

- The team will be better, and probably finish higher in the standings than they would otherwise.
- Other players will get less PP time, deflating their offensive statistics and possibly their own value
- Whatever draft picks you eventually trade Kessel for will be a year further removed from helping the club

So my point is that realistically, it doesn't really matter what Kessel is worth right now, maximizing his value involves trading him this summer.

I would tend  to agree with both bolded parts.  If we are going to trade Kessel for draft picks, now is the year to do it (maybe the 6th and a top prospect gets it done for me - or maybe the 6th and their 2015 2nd rounder if they have it).  I would actually like to obtain as many 2015 first round picks as possible - hopefully a fourth first round pick can come from a package involving Phaneuf.

3 or 4 first round picks from this supposedly loaded draft with our new management team, would go a long way in a rebuild.  That's definitely one way to accelerate a rebuild.