Official Armchair GM Thread 2015-2016

[herman]

What about 7 years @ 4.75-5M? It nets out to a bit more than 6 y @ 5.5-5.75, but it's more stability for Rielly and brings the cap hit down a bit to make it easier to surround him with better players.

Adding extra years to a contract for a 30-year old can sometimes bring a players cap hit down, but that doesn't really work for a 21-year old. The 7th year of a potential Rielly contract would be his 28-year old season. He's not going to take a discount on that year for extra stability. If anything it actually works the other way, any extra year added to Rielly's deal will only increase his cap hit.

Thanks, Carlton. I see we won't be able to sucker Rielly into a Gardiner-esque contract.

 

[Kin]

Adding extra years to a contract for a 30-year old can sometimes bring a players cap hit down, but that doesn't really work for a 21-year old. The 7th year of a potential Rielly contract would be his 28-year old season. He's not going to take a discount on that year for extra stability. If anything it actually works the other way, any extra year added to Rielly's deal will only increase his cap hit.

Exactly:

"Now Morgan, our offer has some good news and bad news. On the downside, it's not a very high AAV. On the plus side, you're locked into it for a very long time."

 

[McGarnagle]

While I certainly think he's a talent, I sometimes wonder if Reilly is somewhat overhyped just by nature of the fact he's the only consensus "future of the franchise" currently in the lineup. Perhaps it'd be best to assume he's going to be a good player, and if he turns out to be great, then... great.

 

[Kin]

While I certainly think he's a talent, I sometimes wonder if Reilly is somewhat overhyped just by nature of the fact he's the only consensus "future of the franchise" currently in the lineup. Perhaps it'd be best to assume he's going to be a good player, and if he turns out to be great, then... great.

Isn't the problem with that the fact that Rielly is essentially already a good player? It seems a little unrealistic to have a 21 year old defenseman who's already good player, who was drafted very high, and not assume he's going to get better(and by a legitimate margin).

So, yeah, it's unrealistic to think he's going to be "great" in the sense of being a Norris candidate or HOFer or whatever but considering how good he is already it's pretty tough to not figure on him being worth 5-6 million per year over the life of his deal.

 

[McGarnagle]

So, yeah, it's unrealistic to think he's going to be "great" in the sense of being a Norris candidate or HOFer or whatever

That's exactly the sentiment that I infer in some of the media and fans. I think he's already been anointed as a future captain, perennial all-star, and franchise #1 D staple. Which would be great, but in virtually every other market, there would be far more realistic projections. He's largely considered at these lofty heights because there simply isn't anywhere else on the roster to spread optimism around.

5-6M is a good range for a good player, as you mention. I wouldn't be surprised if Reilly's agent is pushing higher because of the sorry state of optics in the franchise.

 

[Highlander]

What sorry state of Optics in the Franchise? Are we talking about Burke or JFJ or Nonis era. I don't see anything wrong with the optics of the franchise with Shanahan, Dubas, Hunter and Lou. Quite the contrary my dear Watson.

 

[Britishbulldog]

I'm going off the rails on a crazy train....

If we did get Auston Matthews I have seen a few fans trade him to Arizona, most likely for sentimental reasons, for a package like Domi, Duclair, etc and a draft pick.  At 1st I was thinking that there would be no circumstance that the Leafs should trade Matthews and then I thought of Lindros and the '92 Quebec trade. 

I know this should be firmly placed in the fantasy, speculation section but if Arizona offered a 'comparative' trade (minus the $15 million of course) does anyone have an opinion on if the Leafs should go for it or not?  Go for a bunch of dimes (less quality but good pieces) or do you keep the quarter (elite center) and keep building?  Colorado won the Cup and Philadelphia didn't.

For those who forget the details of the deal for Lindros:
Steve Duchesne - 26 yr old high offense dman - scoring 82 pts in 82 games the 1st year in Quebec!!
Peter Forsberg - 19 yr old projected superstar - Scored 50 pts in 47 games in his rookie year, 116 pts in 82 games the following year
Mike Ricci - TENACIOUS 21 yr old 4th overall pick - scoring 78 pts with 123 PIMs in 77 games the 1st year in Quebec
Ron Hextall - veteran goalie
Kerry Huffman - 24 yr old 6'2" former 1st Rd dman that was coming off a (over achieving) season of 14 goals in only 60 games
Chris Simon - Super goon with a little bit of hockey skill
1993 1st round pick (#10 Overall)
1994 1st round pick (#10 Overall)
$15 Million cash

So if Arizona offered a deal something like this based on this years SPCs would it be enough to let go of a top center like Matthews?:

Steve Duchesne - Oliver Ekman Larsson (turning 25 in July)
Peter Forsberg - Max Domi 20 yr old - not close to Forsberg
Mike Ricci- Anthony Duclair 20 year old - not close to Ricci
Ron Hextall - Mike Smith - veteran goalie
2017 1st round pick
2018 1st round pick
Kerry Huffman
Chris Simon
$15 Million cash

Matthews is NOT the caliber of Lindros but this 4 player Arizona package with 2 picks is NOT the caliber of Philadephia's package either.  If you feel yes then that would allow the Leafs to move good pieces like Reimer, Bernier, Gardiner and Kadri for picks/prospects.

For instance Kadri and Marincin for Trouba.

Next year:

JVR/ Bozak / Marner
Duclair / Domi / Nylander
Lupul / Komarov / Michalek
Leivo / Holland / Greening

OEL / Trouba
Rielly / Zaitsev
Hunwick / Corrado

Smith
UFA

Multiple 1st round picks in 2017, 2018 and possibly 2019 if the top trade assets are maximized. It would really establish a solid young core for a long time.

 

[Kin]

Nope.

You get a franchise type center in the draft, you take him. Quebec only made that trade because Lindros' refusing to play for them forced their hand and it only really looks good in hindsight because of a bunch of unrepeatable and non repeatable circumstances(already having 2 potential franchise centers in Sundin and Sakic, moving from Quebec to Colorado which facilitated the Roy trade, etc).

Teams have other ways to acquire nickels and dimes, you don't trade your one shot at a quarter unless you essentially have no other choice.

 

[Deebo]

https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/703233314103148545

I would like to get Rielly signed to similar deal.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That's definitely a great contract for Pittsburgh. I feel like Rielly has the higher offensive potential, and that's generally what gets defencemen (or forwards) paid, so he'll come in at a higher cap hit but this might bring it down a tad.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Would be great to sign Rielly for a similar deal.

 

[Kin]

Thing is the Leafs can't make the "This is all we can offer you because we need to fit some of the world's greatest hockey players under the cap" pitch. There's a ton of cap space and Rielly is legitimately the best player on the team.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Thing is the Leafs can't make the "This is all we can offer you because we need to fit some of the world's greatest hockey players under the cap" pitch. There's a ton of cap space and Rielly is legitimately the best player on the team.

That's a good point. Pittsburgh also has Kris Letang locked up long-term, so you could make the case that Maatta won't be the teams #1 defencemen (at least for awhile, if/when Letang's play drops in his 30s).

And right or wrong, a players pedigree does come into play in negotiations like these. Rielly was picked 17 spots ahead of him in the 1st round of their draft. I'd jump for joy if Rielly signed this deal but I still don't think it's realistic to expect anything less than $5mil.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Thing is the Leafs can't make the "This is all we can offer you because we need to fit some of the world's greatest hockey players under the cap" pitch. There's a ton of cap space and Rielly is legitimately the best player on the team.

That's a good point. Pittsburgh also has Kris Letang locked up long-term, so you could make the case that Maatta won't be the teams #1 defencemen (at least for awhile, if/when Letang's play drops in his 30s).

And right or wrong, a players pedigree does come into play in negotiations like these. Rielly was picked 17 spots ahead of him in the 1st round of their draft. I'd jump for joy if Rielly signed this deal but I still don't think it's realistic to expect anything less than $5mil.

There's also the John Klingberg deal at $4.25M hit - coming off a 40 pts in 65 game season at age 22.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

There's also the John Klingberg deal at $4.25M hit - coming off a 40 pts in 65 game season at age 22.

I've talked about the Klingberg deal before, Rielly's negotiations will be entirely different. The Stars were dealing with a 22-year old, former 5th round pick with one season in North America under his belt. There was a ton more risk involved in that contract. I love skipping bridge deals and even I raised a slight eyebrow when I saw it. Obviously it's definitely worked out though.

Rielly's best comparables this summer are going to be Lindholm, Trouba, and Jones.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I know there are differences between the players, but I really do think Klingberg and Maata have set the market.

I suspect Rielly will come in just under 5.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

There's also the John Klingberg deal at $4.25M hit - coming off a 40 pts in 65 game season at age 22.

I've talked about the Klingberg deal before, Rielly's negotiations will be entirely different. The Stars were dealing with a 22-year old, former 5th round pick with one season in North America under his belt. There was a ton more risk involved in that contract. I love skipping bridge deals and even I raised a slight eyebrow when I saw it. Obviously it's definitely worked out though.

Rielly's best comparables this summer are going to be Lindholm, Trouba, and Jones.

I mean, I'd say there is a ton of risk in a long-term deal for Rielly since at this point you still don't really know what his offensive ceiling is or isn't.  Sure he has more seasons in the league than Klingberg did, but arguably worse seasons (I don't know the context of Klingberg to really accurately comment too much).  So do you look at Rielly not really significantly increasing his offensive production over his time in the league and say that will work against him?  I think ideally out of a 5th overall pick in his 3rd year you'd like to see more offensive production, even though I think there are valid reasons why it is lower than it might be elsewhere.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I know there are differences between the players, but I really do think Klingberg and Maata have set the market.

I suspect Rielly will come in just under 5.

I'd say at this point Dougie Hamilton's contract is the best comparable currently out there for players like Rielly/Trouba/Lindholm/Jones.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I mean, I'd say there is a ton of risk in a long-term deal for Rielly since at this point you still don't really know what his offensive ceiling is or isn't.  Sure he has more seasons in the league than Klingberg did, but arguably worse seasons (I don't know the context of Klingberg to really accurately comment too much).  So do you look at Rielly not really significantly increasing his offensive production over his time in the league and say that will work against him?  I think ideally out of a 5th overall pick in his 3rd year you'd like to see more offensive production, even though I think there are valid reasons why it is lower than it might be elsewhere.

Of course there's risk but again, it's just an entirely different story with Klingberg. Rielly's outlook in the NHL has always been that of a top pairing defenceman. I don't think that his 3 seasons in the NHL have really changed that outlook. He hasn't really shown anything to make anyone think that he's going to crash and burn, now it's just trying to deteremine what type of defenceman he'll be. Can he be a Letang/Shattenkirk or more of a Yandle?

I mean just put yourself in these agents respective shoes. If you're Rielly's agent do you really take a deal that'll be paying him $4.5-5mil (assuming it's backloaded) when he's 27 years old? If the Leafs stance is that they're worried about how potential then I'm demanding a bridge deal. There's basically no downside to it for Rielly's camp if that's Toronto's position.

Now look at Klingberg. Your client just came virtually out of nowhere and scored a crap ton of points playing largely with two of the highest scoring players in the NHL. You take a 7-year deal for good money instantly. Imagine Andreas Johnson comes over next season and scores 60 points, how comfortable would you be signing him to a 7-year deal? That's basically the exact position the Stars were in with Klingberg. It's an entirely different type of risk/reward scenario.

 

[Frank E]

I mean just put yourself in these agents respective shoes. If you're Rielly's agent do you really take a deal that'll be paying him $4.5-5mil (assuming it's backloaded) when he's 27 years old? If the Leafs stance is that they're worried about how potential then I'm demanding a bridge deal. There's basically no downside to it for Rielly's camp if that's Toronto's position.

There's a lot of risk in a short term deal when you play professional sports.  I think that sometimes we forget that signing a 6 year $24mil deal carries a lot more security than a 2 year $7m deal.