Official Armchair GM Thread 2015-2016

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Good point.

If you're his agent, do you push for the bridge so that he can get to the larger figure sooner?

I honestly don't know. You're potentially talking about a player turning down 20-30 million in guaranteed money by opting for the shorter deal and for players looking to get that first big contract that could be a tough sell.

The other question I think you'd have to ask is that while it might be reasonable to assume that Nylander's first few years will see significant gains in production, there almost certainly is going to be a plateau eventually. Even if we're unified in optimism about Nylander's future prospects there's still a wide gap between him being a 8+ million player and being a 10+ million player.

So, for instance, if the breakdown is this:

ELC
ELC
ELC
6 million
6 million
6 million
6 million
6 million

and the other track is:

ELC
ELC
ELC
4 million
4 million
9 million
9 million
9 million

Then in this situation, the breakdown is 35 million in the second scenario compared to 30 in the first. Would I want to risk injury/whatever over that 5 million? If Nylander is only a 8 million dollar player the difference is only two million, an amount small enough that getting the big contract up front might be more lucrative(especially if you back-dive it as much as the CBA allows).

The thinking though is after the bridge contract the $9M deal is for 6+ years or more. So in terms of guarantees you're getting a larger figure for a shorter-term risk.

That bridge deal would represent a massive risk. Perhaps the agent would go with the 5.5/6M figure post ELC but only if they agree to 3/4 years.

 

[Kin]

The thinking though is after the bridge contract the $9M deal is for 6+ years or more. So in terms of guarantees you're getting a larger figure for a shorter-term risk.

Sure but the whole point is that the larger figure isn't a guarantee at all when the decision is being made. It's as much of a guarantee in that sense as the similarly lucrative deal the player could sign once the 5 year/30 million dollar deal expired.

If I'm trying to maximize my client's earning potential then what I want to do is get them to UFA status as early as possible. In the first scenario the player would get to negotiate that huge 7+ year, 9+ million dollar deal as a pending 26 year old UFA whereas in the second scenario the player wouldn't become a UFA until they were 30.

That bridge deal would represent a massive risk. Perhaps the agent would go with the 5.5/6M figure post ELC but only if they agree to 3/4 years.

Maybe, but it sure sems like young players like the sort of deal I'm talking about. Hall, Eberle, RNH, Seguin, Tavares, Landeskog, Duchene...I'm sure there are scenarios where they preferred the sort of situation that you're talking about but in the most famous example, that of Subban, I think we can agree that Subban wanted to sign long-term earlier.

 

[Frank E]

I suppose though, if the plan is to build a good team in 5 or 6 years that is consistently contending, having guys at more manageable cap hits, even if paying them too much when they're 22, might be the way to go...a la Edmonton Oilers.

 

[Highlander]

Kadri starting to play like a stud, goals will follow?big time! He has to stay and be part of what is coming.

 

[rdowdall]

If you're his agent, do you push for the bridge so that he can get to the larger figure sooner?

Players, and agents, very rarely seem to be the ones interested in the bridge deals. You can tell just from how the situations are usually described in the press, it's usually the team pushing for that route. Like Nik just brought up, they'll take that security of a long-term (and still very lucrative) deal over the hopes of maybe getting a few more bucks if they improve and/or avoid injury.

Aren't bridge deals usually offered to the players that have shown something, but the team isn't all that sure with what they have?  I think if you know what you have with a young player, like a Crosby, Hall, Seguin, Stamkos, you forego the bridge deal and negotiate something longer term.

 

[Frank E]

Assuming they play the remaining 60 games, this is where our boys are tracking.

At this point, about the quarter point of the season, I think we could probably discuss what some of these guys are going to be worth on the market in a few months.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

It's nice to see Lupul sitting with 22 games played, and 8 goals isn't too bad either. If he stays healthy and keeps that up, he could bring a late 1st/early 2nd rounder closer to the deadline.

 

[Frank E]

It's nice to see Lupul sitting with 22 games played, and 8 goals isn't too bad either. If he stays healthy and keeps that up, he could bring a late 1st/early 2nd rounder closer to the deadline.

Just thought I'd quote this for funny...Lupul now 3 weeks later with 25 games:

 

[Tigger]

I like the features at nhlarmchairgm.com, almost as good as capgeek was...

FORWARDS

J. Van Riemsdyk ($ 4,250,000) --- n. kadri ($ 5,000,000) --- L. Komarov ($ 2,950,000)
p. holland ($ 1,800,000) --- T. Bozak ($ 4,200,000) --- J. Lupul ($ 5,250,000)
D. Winnik ($ 2,250,000) --- W. Nylander ($ 894,166) --- M. Marner ($ 925,000)
N. Soshnikov ($ 736,666) --- B. Froese ($ 575,000) --- R. Panik ($ 975,000)

DEFENCE

J. Gardiner ($ 4,050,000) --- D. Phaneuf ($ 7,000,000)
M. Hunwick ($ 1,200,000) --- m. rielly ($ 6,000,000)
n. zaitsev ($ 925,000) --- S. Harrington ($ 589,167)

GOAL

J. Bernier ($ 4,150,000)

Extras

j. enroth ($ 1,500,000) --- C. Brown ($ 686,667) --- F. Corrado ($ 632,500) --- S. Percy ($ 863,333)

---------------------------------------------------

2015 NHL Cap Limit: $ 71,400,000
23 Player Roster Cap Used: $ 65,702,499
Cap Buried in the Minors: + $ 0
Cap Hit from Buyout(s): + $ 1,833,333
2014 Bonus Overages: + $ 0
Cap Retained in Trades : + $ 1,400,000
Cap Retained by Other Team : - $ 0
Long Term Injury Reserve: - $ 0
Cap Space Available : $ 2,464,168

The downside is that I can't change the cap limit, or really do anything about the numbers outside this season ( Gleason's buyout is actually 500k less, I had to 'create' Rielly and Kadri to reset/guesstimate their numbers ), but it does a pretty good job getting you say, 90% of the way there. That also includes Horton and Robidas, though it's hard to see it from that. Anywho, there's 6 or 7 mil in space even there for next year.

Also, was looking at some free agent options for next year. I used Enroth and Zaitsev in the above, but there's a few others, maybe Boedker, Gryba, and oddly enough, considering they probably won't get 'paid', Schenn and Tlusty. Of course there's also Darren Helm, a Babcock fav. Of all those I can see Boedker getting paid so maybe not there, though it looks like losing his spleen hasn't slowed him down.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

It's nice to see Lupul sitting with 22 games played, and 8 goals isn't too bad either. If he stays healthy and keeps that up, he could bring a late 1st/early 2nd rounder closer to the deadline.

Just thought I'd quote this for funny...Lupul now 3 weeks later with 25 games:

My bad.  ???  I should have just kept my mouth closed.

Never mind Lupul, Komarov is playing himself to a point where he may fetch a 1st at the deadline. Perhaps Bozak as well with his play this season.

 

[Frank E]

In the other thread I was thinking about trade partners for some of our guys, but man, things are pretty tight out there.

There isn't anyone even close to the floor this year:

EDIT: and the Leafs with the highest actual salaries!

 

[Frank E]

So just further to this salaries thing, there are some guys making substantially more than their cap hits this year. 

 

[Kin]

That financial muscle at work.

 

[bustaheims]

So just further to this salaries thing, there are some guys making substantially more than their cap hits this year. 

And, there's $9M in real dollars on LTIR.

 

[Bullfrog]

That financial muscle at work.

Don't jest. It got us rid of the world's greatest player.

 

[Frank E]

So just further to this salaries thing, there are some guys making substantially more than their cap hits this year. 

And, there's $9M in real dollars on LTIR.

Yep.  Horton's making $6mil this year (AAV $5.3m), and Robidas is in at $3mil (exactly his cap hit).

No doubt, this team is nowhere near pulling a Buffalo or Edmonton tank here. They're going about it differently.

 

[Kin]

Yep.  Horton's making $6mil this year (AAV $5.3m), and Robidas is in at $3mil (exactly his cap hit).

No doubt, this team is nowhere near pulling a Buffalo or Edmonton tank here. They're going about it differently.

In the short term maybe but 20 million of those real dollars and 16 million of the cap dollars are only around because they represent players the Leafs couldn't give away this off-season.

 

[Frank E]

Yep.  Horton's making $6mil this year (AAV $5.3m), and Robidas is in at $3mil (exactly his cap hit).

No doubt, this team is nowhere near pulling a Buffalo or Edmonton tank here. They're going about it differently.

In the short term maybe but 20 million of those real dollars and 16 million of the cap dollars are only around because they represent players the Leafs couldn't give away this off-season.

Presumably, and this is looking to be an interesting trade-deadline.  Since Kadri and Reilly are due for deals this summer, their cap situation doesn't improve substantially next year, unless something substantial is done before next season.

I would think that they're going to have to clear a little bit of the top stuff out, and that conversation probably includes Kadri...the question is going to be who is moved.

 

[Kin]

Presumably, and this is looking to be an interesting trade-deadline.  Since Kadri and Reilly are due for deals this summer, their cap situation doesn't improve substantially next year, unless something substantial is done before next season.

I would think that they're going to have to clear a little bit of the top stuff out, and that conversation probably includes Kadri...the question is going to be who is moved.

Well, they have 16 million or so in expiring deals before they even get to Kadri so when you figure that:

A) a lot of roster spots will be filled by rookies next year
B) It's tough to imagine Kadri would get a huge raise
C) Rielly hasn't really established himself as a star/future star

I think they'll be alright. Although in general I'd agree that trading one of Bozak/Lupul/Phaneuf should be high on the agenda.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Even with his issues, I don't think it'll be too difficult to move Lupul with just 1 year and $3.75mil left on his contract.