Opening Forward Lines

[bustaheims]

Someone from that site also gets paid to write similar articles for Sportsnet's online page. Would somebody put stock in an article he writes on one format but not on the other?

Yeah, I find that odd. Instead of judging by the quality of the content and analysis, that someone would just purely based on where an article is published is . . . well, I probably shouldn't say, because it would be pretty insulting to those who have that POV.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Herman, congratulations on attaining Marlie status.  Your posts are a welcome addition to the site

+1 Guy stands out as a solid member.

Thanks, new friends, for making me feel so welcome!

I just read this latest piece from Siegel on Bozak's emergence, esp. on PP.

?Obviously when you?ve got guys out there like James, Phil, Naz, and Dion, a lot of attention is going to be on them so I just try and slip under the radar and get to spots where guys aren?t,? he said afterward.

[...]

Bozak is a historically efficient shooter ? career 17.1 per cent ? something he says is by design, a recognition of where he figures he?ll be most able to score. ?I don?t really take too many shots from the outside in areas where I don?t think I?ll be able to score,? he explained. ?I try and limit my shots to the grade-A scoring areas and give myself a good chance to score every time I shoot.?

When he was first signed, I though Bozak was Stajan 2.0 at a cheaper rate. Turns out he is not so vanilla, and is opportunistic and kind of sneaky. I'm still drooling over that goal he chipped over Holtby when he suddenly reversed that rocket pass from Kessel at the goalmouth.

It seems the more people that suggest Bozak is merely an average player riding the coattails of Kessel, the more he proves them wrong. This year he's starting to silence even the most cynical of critics. I love it! Bozak's deserves to be on that top line. Plain and simple.

Nah, he doesn't, but he's doing very well so far this season.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/12/1/7312047/how-many-points-will-tyler-bozak-score-this-season

Who writes these article. Are they actual hockey people or more hockey fans like us. Articles kind of remind me or reading Eckland trade rumors.(Spelling)

And to show it's not just those guys writing this sort of stuff: http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2014/11/30/bozak-back-old-self-mostly/

 

[Arn]

I used to often and still occasionally write for a nice hockey team fan site. Things such as game reports, features on the history of the team, interviews, player profiles.

Each player had a profile page on the site. One season an away team contacted me to ask if they could use my profiles in their game night program.

So if someone read them on our fan site they'd not be worth reading but if they read the exact sam thing in the game night program they'd be more credible? Despite being the exact same? Is that what we're debating here? If so, I can't quite grasp the argument..

 

[freer]

here is a nice article on Bozak hard work this season. I guess he is starting to get noticed

http://www.tsn.ca/video/th2n-bozak-still-turning-heads-1.150343

 

[Deebo]

72 points in his last 82 now.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

72 points in his last 82 now.

Which is obviously great, but I'm still not going bet on his last 82 games over the previous 238. 0.56 PPG over first 238 vs. 0.88 PPG last 82, that jump is just too much for me to believe is something that can continue, especially at his age.  If he does it over a full season and not over parts of 2 seasons then that is something else entirely.

It's not meant to be a knock on him either, just trying to project him going forward.

 

[Deebo]

Of those 238 games, its was .495 over the first 119 and .63 over the next 119.

So it was .495 the first two seasons of his career (119GP in 2009-10 and 2010-11) and .731 since the start of the 2011-12 season (201 games).

.88 might won't last, but I also don't see him going back to ~.56 either since 2010-11 is the only sub .600 PPG season of his career but it was also the only full season of his career.

 

[Redleaf]

72 points in his last 82 now.

Which is obviously great, but I'm still not going bet on his last 82 games over the previous 238. 0.56 PPG over first 238 vs. 0.88 PPG last 82, that jump is just too much for me to believe is something that can continue, especially at his age.  If he does it over a full season and not over parts of 2 seasons then that is something else entirely.

It's not meant to be a knock on him either, just trying to project him going forward.

Well, it's clear to me that Bozak belongs on the top line, but feel free to continue linking as many articles with differing opinions and numbers proving you're right, and that he really doesn't.

His numbers 'have' been trending upwards, if that's your thing. But go ahead and tell us those are not sufficient enough for your liking as well.

The one thing about using numbers for this type of argument is, they generally don't give you the effect of the timeliness of goals during a match. Nor can they include any measurement of how some goals can change the momentum of a game, more than others. Etc. Etc.

One thing that they can do, is work in favour of whichever 'opinion' you have about something. They can be skewed to support your argument, no matter how far off the general perceptions about something or someone may be.

 

[Redleaf]

72 points in his last 82 now.

Which is obviously great, but I'm still not going bet on his last 82 games over the previous 238. 0.56 PPG over first 238 vs. 0.88 PPG last 82, that jump is just too much for me to believe is something that can continue, especially at his age.  If he does it over a full season and not over parts of 2 seasons then that is something else entirely.

It's not meant to be a knock on him either, just trying to project him going forward.

So, his age is a reason you think his numbers will soon drop off?

I'm not saying he'll keep scoring at this rate, but I don't see a reason why they would drop off drastically anytime soon either. Just as I don't see his scoring production improving in spectacular fashion in the near future.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

2010-11 is the only sub .600 PPG season of his career but it was also the only full season of his career.

That's what I'm thinking if he plays a full season then it likely regresses more to the .60-.65 level.  He hasn't played more than 58 games in a season since 11-12 (who knows if he would have in 12-13).  2010-11 was also the last season Kessel wasn't at or very near 1.00 PPG.

If he keeps this pace or somewhat close to it all season I'll be extremely impressed.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

72 points in his last 82 now.

Which is obviously great, but I'm still not going bet on his last 82 games over the previous 238. 0.56 PPG over first 238 vs. 0.88 PPG last 82, that jump is just too much for me to believe is something that can continue, especially at his age.  If he does it over a full season and not over parts of 2 seasons then that is something else entirely.

It's not meant to be a knock on him either, just trying to project him going forward.

So, his age is a reason you think his numbers will soon drop off?

I'm not saying he'll keep scoring at this rate, but I don't see a reason why they would drop off drastically anytime soon either. Just as I don't see his scoring production improving in spectacular fashion in the near future.

Players don't typically significantly become better at 28 or 29.  Doesn't mean he won't.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

72 points in his last 82 now.

Which is obviously great, but I'm still not going bet on his last 82 games over the previous 238. 0.56 PPG over first 238 vs. 0.88 PPG last 82, that jump is just too much for me to believe is something that can continue, especially at his age.  If he does it over a full season and not over parts of 2 seasons then that is something else entirely.

It's not meant to be a knock on him either, just trying to project him going forward.

Well, it's clear to me that Bozak belongs on the top line, but feel free to continue linking as many articles with differing opinions and numbers proving you're right, and that he really doesn't.

Oh my god I'm so sorry.  I didn't realize that you had decided that he belongs on the top line.  Here I am linking articles and discussing it when I didn't realize you had already made up your mind.

I'm really sorry Redleaf.

Mods, can you close thread?

 

[Redleaf]

72 points in his last 82 now.

Which is obviously great, but I'm still not going bet on his last 82 games over the previous 238. 0.56 PPG over first 238 vs. 0.88 PPG last 82, that jump is just too much for me to believe is something that can continue, especially at his age.  If he does it over a full season and not over parts of 2 seasons then that is something else entirely.

It's not meant to be a knock on him either, just trying to project him going forward.

Well, it's clear to me that Bozak belongs on the top line, but feel free to continue linking as many articles with differing opinions and numbers proving you're right, and that he really doesn't.

Oh my god I'm so sorry.  I didn't realize that you had decided that he belongs on the top line.  Here I am linking articles and discussing it when I didn't realize you had already made up your mind.

I'm really sorry Redleaf.

Mods, can you close thread?

My point was that we can all have differing opinions about something and still get along, and have intelligent and thoughtful discussion. But with you its different. Why does it always feel like you need to disprove peoples opinions??

 

[Kin]

Of those 238 games, its was .495 over the first 119 and .63 over the next 119.

So it was .495 the first two seasons of his career (119GP in 2009-10 and 2010-11) and .731 since the start of the 2011-12 season (201 games).

.88 might won't last, but I also don't see him going back to ~.56 either since 2010-11 is the only sub .600 PPG season of his career but it was also the only full season of his career.

Well, and let's be fair, at this point the 2010-2011 season sticks out like a sore thumb. Despite that, whenever someone wants to cast Bozak's play in a bad light, they're going to lean heavily on a sample that includes that year prominently.

Bozak's PPG per year

2009-2010: .73
2010-2011: .39
2011-2012: .64
2012-2013: .61
2013-2014: .84
2014-2015: .96

It's really not hard to play "One of these Things is not like the Other" with his career but to some it seems like even the idea that Bozak's struggles in his first full year aren't particularly indicative of his skill has to be immediately discounted. To them it's not the aberration, to them it seems to be by far the most significant year in his career.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Herman, congratulations on attaining Marlie status.  Your posts are a welcome addition to the site

+1 Guy stands out as a solid member.

Thanks, new friends, for making me feel so welcome!

I just read this latest piece from Siegel on Bozak's emergence, esp. on PP.

?Obviously when you?ve got guys out there like James, Phil, Naz, and Dion, a lot of attention is going to be on them so I just try and slip under the radar and get to spots where guys aren?t,? he said afterward.

[...]

Bozak is a historically efficient shooter ? career 17.1 per cent ? something he says is by design, a recognition of where he figures he?ll be most able to score. ?I don?t really take too many shots from the outside in areas where I don?t think I?ll be able to score,? he explained. ?I try and limit my shots to the grade-A scoring areas and give myself a good chance to score every time I shoot.?

When he was first signed, I though Bozak was Stajan 2.0 at a cheaper rate. Turns out he is not so vanilla, and is opportunistic and kind of sneaky. I'm still drooling over that goal he chipped over Holtby when he suddenly reversed that rocket pass from Kessel at the goalmouth.

It seems the more people that suggest Bozak is merely an average player riding the coattails of Kessel, the more he proves them wrong. This year he's starting to silence even the most cynical of critics. I love it! Bozak's deserves to be on that top line. Plain and simple.

Nah, he doesn't, but he's doing very well so far this season.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/12/1/7312047/how-many-points-will-tyler-bozak-score-this-season

His scoring pace by year:

All #'s rounded up and down accordingly.

09/10: 27 pts in 37 GP - 60 per 82 GP
10/11: 32 pts in 82 GP - 32 per 82 GP
11-12: 47 pts in 73 GP - 53 per 82 GP
12-13: 28 pts in 46 GP - 50 per 82 GP
13-14: 49 pts in 56 GP - 69 per 82 GP
14-15: 23 pts in 24 GP - 78 per 82 GP (pace)

If anything the 32 pt pace is an outlier IMO not the pace of last year. I also think the various injuries over the years have affected.

Here's how I would've done the calculation (I'm definitely not a stat head though).

Over his last 201 GP he's a 0.73 PPG player.

82 subtract the 24 he's already played = 58 games remaining.

58 x 0.73 = 42 pts

42 + the 23 he's already scored = 65

So I'd say 65 give or take (probably take a few).

I'd be very surprised if he scored less than 60. Time will tell.

 

[Highlander]

tipacanoe and Tyler too!  Guy is playing great, maybe when he sleeps, he dreams he is a first line centre.

 

[mr grieves]

Bozak's been scoring at an impressive rate, has been doing so for longer than I would've expected, and a lot of the recent goals have been fun, opportunistic ones... But I wonder about that first line. Bozak's GF% is 46.7% and his CF% is 46.1%. That's not a first line that controls play or generates more than it gives up. I'm not sure whether that's a problem that's evacuated by Bozak's ppg.

Should say, though, I'm not sure that it's Bozak's 'fault' either. Kessel's been better away from Bozak than with him in ~100min this season, and JvR, in somewhat less time, has been worse (possession wise, anyway). But the sample sizes are small.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Mirtle weighs in: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/the-case-for-and-against-tyler-bozak/article21942248/

 

[freer]

Mirtle weighs in: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/the-case-for-and-against-tyler-bozak/article21942248/

So one bade article and one good. I guess we will just have to see how the season plays out.

IMO if he werent injuried during game 7 they would of won. Just saying

 

[mr grieves]

IMO if he werent injuried during game 7 they would of won. Just saying

Was out game 6 too.