Phil Kessel

[cw]

...
Given what cw showed us other players have gone for in recent years, it stands to reason that the Leafs have other pieces that could net 1st round picks or prospects and the Leafs could take their chances with them.

canada.com link
Media: "When you had an opportunity to improve the team at the deadline, did that hamper your ability?"

Burke: "I don?t like the trade deadline. I feel that very little in general, very little that?s done at the deadline impacts the team. I try to make my deals ahead of the deadline, I wasn?t able to do that, everything we got offered was either stripping, a first round pick for Clarke MacArthur, and then our fans wait three more years for a player. I didn?t like the price tags for rentals. We made a conscious decision, we?re going to do the right thing for the organization long term to keep those assets. No panic, and no stepping back."

One trade possibility Burke let slip in his end of year media conference (he had talked in other interviews of being offered 1st rounders). And that was a pick I probably would have snatched.

 

[bustaheims]

Ok, I see what you're saying, but here's my issue. The best return isn't necessarily the best option. It just seems to me that the Leafs would be assuming a lot of needless risk. Chances are any team looking to acquire Kessel will not be drafting in the top 5, so that pretty much nullifies the value of any draft pick coming back. Chances are also good that any team with a prospect who has been recognized as a legitimate franchise player would be aware of that fact and be reluctant to give that player up in a trade for Kessel. It seems to me that a team presented with that option would take their chances with what they have, unless they REALLY STRONGLY believed that Kessel was the final piece to their championship puzzle. Seems like a lot of wishful thinking there.

Sure, but if the Leafs blow things up like I'm suggesting they could (not that I think they will), they're looking at a scenario where there's a very real chance Kessel won't want to stick around past next season and/or, by the time the team has come together to the point that they're ready to become something legitimate, Kessel might not be the same calibre of player he is now (depending on how long the process takes, obviously). It would also mean Kessel is at least 4-5 years older than the new core of the team. If that's the route the Leafs choose to take, it would likely be best to get the best deal that they can for him now than have him bolt after next season, leaving them with nothing. If the Leafs aren't going to build around the current core and move everyone but the pieces you're suggesting, unless they're getting good young players back or high-end prospects who are NHL ready, they might as well go all the way and strip the team down to basically nothing.

 

[rdowdall]

We gave up three picks to get Kessel and those picks have proved what a mass overpayment they were. But we all know that already.

Currently, I think, if Kessel was shopped, we *might* get a first round pick in return and that too NOT from a mediocre team - a contender, so that pick will easily be either 30 or 29. Because Kessel is a complimentary player. Not a centre piece. He is the last piece of the puzzle for a contender. Not someone you build around. Four years have taught us that. His scoring hasn't lifted the Leafs from the leagues' basement standings.

A first round pick is about 50/50 whether they do much in the NHL. A low 1st round pick is less than that. Kessel isn't a 50/50 possibility of whether he'll play in the NHL. Ignoring chance of injury every player has, he's a proven 30+ goal scorer. So he's likely to attract more than that. Remember, with Boston, he'd had one good season. He's since proven that wasn't a fluke.

Kaberle got a 1st round pick & Joe Colborne (1st round pick prospect) and a conditional 2nd round pick (lowish picks because Boston was near the top of the league). Dmen are worth more than wingers but Kessel has age on his side. So that's roughly what one could expect for Kessel given a few teams would be bidding - probably more for the condition if he re-signs.

EDIT: rather than nailing down what exactly his  value is with the above, as I really need to give it more thought, the point is that I think Kessel is worth much more than a low 1st round pick.

Its funny how much we undervalue Kessel's worth due to the trade history. It's almost comical.

Buffalo gave up UFA-2b Gaustad & a 4th for a 1st from Nashville.

Edmonton got a 1st, 3rd and Teubert from LA for Dustin Penner (who was 1yr away from UFA status)

Phoenix for Lombardi, Prust & a 1st (2009 or 2010) for Jokinen (who was 1yr away from UFA status) and a 3rd

I think Kessel right now is worth more than all those players.

I would use the Kovalchuk deal as a basis and go from there.  Most people say Waddel did not get enough in that deal, but I think where Kessel is right now and where Kovalchuk was back then is somewhat similar.  Kovalchuk was probably valued more then than Kessel is now, but then you have the screw up on Waddel's side so maybe it evens out.

 

[TML fan]

Ok, I see what you're saying, but here's my issue. The best return isn't necessarily the best option. It just seems to me that the Leafs would be assuming a lot of needless risk. Chances are any team looking to acquire Kessel will not be drafting in the top 5, so that pretty much nullifies the value of any draft pick coming back. Chances are also good that any team with a prospect who has been recognized as a legitimate franchise player would be aware of that fact and be reluctant to give that player up in a trade for Kessel. It seems to me that a team presented with that option would take their chances with what they have, unless they REALLY STRONGLY believed that Kessel was the final piece to their championship puzzle. Seems like a lot of wishful thinking there.

Sure, but if the Leafs blow things up like I'm suggesting they could (not that I think they will), they're looking at a scenario where there's a very real chance Kessel won't want to stick around past next season and/or, by the time the team has come together to the point that they're ready to become something legitimate, Kessel might not be the same calibre of player he is now (depending on how long the process takes, obviously). It would also mean Kessel is at least 4-5 years older than the new core of the team. If that's the route the Leafs choose to take, it would likely be best to get the best deal that they can for him now than have him bolt after next season, leaving them with nothing. If the Leafs aren't going to build around the current core and move everyone but the pieces you're suggesting, unless they're getting good young players back or high-end prospects who are NHL ready, they might as well go all the way and strip the team down to basically nothing.

In 4-5 years, Kessel will still be in the prime of his career. He's relatively healthy and plays a style that lends itself to longevity. I also don't assume that Kessel is leaving.

 

[Mike1]

I have virtually no faith in the management of this team. Trading Kessel or not is irrelavant. The bigger issue is we have trouble finding talent & as a result we are in a eternal rebuilding phase.

If you keep him, do you have faith that they will add any talent of consequence to make this team better?

If they trade him do you trust in this management's ability to scout & find young prospects to finally get this team on the right track?

Not me. Whatever they decide will always be the wrong choice because they don't have the talent in management to do anything right.

 

[bustaheims]

In 4-5 years, Kessel will still be in the prime of his career. He's relatively healthy and plays a style that lends itself to longevity. I also don't assume that Kessel is leaving.

If the team goes full scale rebuild, I don't see many reasons why he'd want to stay.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I have virtually no faith in the management of this team. Trading Kessel or not is irrelavant. The bigger issue is we have trouble finding talent & as a result we are in a eternal rebuilding phase.

If you keep him, do you have faith that they will add any talent of consequence to make this team better?

If they trade him do you trust in this management's ability to scout & find young prospects to finally get this team on the right track?

Not me. Whatever they decide will always be the wrong choice because they don't have the talent in management to do anything right.

I'm just terrified of trading him for picks and drafting some Kadri's/Tlusty's, both players I have defended and are fine players, but won't really alter the course of a franchise.

 

[TML fan]

In 4-5 years, Kessel will still be in the prime of his career. He's relatively healthy and plays a style that lends itself to longevity. I also don't assume that Kessel is leaving.

If the team goes full scale rebuild, I don't see many reasons why he'd want to stay.

Because he'd be a part of that rebuild and he still has a ton of career left.

 

[Justin]

In 4-5 years, Kessel will still be in the prime of his career. He's relatively healthy and plays a style that lends itself to longevity. I also don't assume that Kessel is leaving.

If the team goes full scale rebuild, I don't see many reasons why he'd want to stay.

Because he'd be a part of that rebuild and he still has a ton of career left.

Exactly. Kessel is 25 years old and entering his prime, this isn't a case of 35 year old Jarome Iginla with the Flames. Unlike Iginla, Kessel is part of his team's future.

 

[Bonsixx]

I think the main issue is whether you want to tie up over $7-million a year, a ballpark figure on what Kessel might be looking for, on the type of player that Phil Kessel is.

For $5-6 million a year, it's hard to complain about what he brings to the team. Once you get into the "superstar" salary, it suddenly gets a whole lot more complicated.

I really wouldn't mind if they managed to keep him, but the most damning thing against Kessel, at least to me, is that I really wouldn't care if they traded him either. He's a great goalscorer, but he hasn't really done much to earn the kind of love and loyalty that other players of his calibre may have in Toronto over the years.

 

[bustaheims]

Exactly. Kessel is 25 years old and entering his prime, this isn't a case of 35 year old Jarome Iginla with the Flames. Unlike Iginla, Kessel is part of his team's future.

That can just as easily be turned it a very big reason he'd want to leave - he'd want to play his prime years for a contender and have multiple shots at the Cup throughout them, not at the tail end of them. Kessel's in his prime right now. Why would he want to waste those years as part of a team that has decided to strip down and start again?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Exactly. Kessel is 25 years old and entering his prime, this isn't a case of 35 year old Jarome Iginla with the Flames. Unlike Iginla, Kessel is part of his team's future.

That can just as easily be turned it a very big reason he'd want to leave - he'd want to play his prime years for a contender and have multiple shots at the Cup throughout them, not at the tail end of them. Kessel's in his prime right now. Why would he want to waste those years as part of a team that has decided to strip down and start again?

Genuinely likes it here?

 

[TML fan]

Exactly. Kessel is 25 years old and entering his prime, this isn't a case of 35 year old Jarome Iginla with the Flames. Unlike Iginla, Kessel is part of his team's future.

That can just as easily be turned it a very big reason he'd want to leave - he'd want to play his prime years for a contender and have multiple shots at the Cup throughout them, not at the tail end of them. Kessel's in his prime right now. Why would he want to waste those years as part of a team that has decided to strip down and start again?

There isn't a person here who wouldn't trade Kessel if they thought he was leaving. Myself included.

 

[bustaheims]

There isn't a person here who wouldn't trade Kessel if they thought he was leaving. Myself included.

And, what I'm saying, is if the Leafs decide to strip down like that, odds are, he's going to leave. So, if that's the plan, it's better to deal him sooner rather than later, because he's more valuable with more time on his contract - and, if a team acquires him before deadline day next season, they can still sign him to an 8 year deal instead of 7.

 

[cw]

We gave up three picks to get Kessel and those picks have proved what a mass overpayment they were. But we all know that already.

Currently, I think, if Kessel was shopped, we *might* get a first round pick in return and that too NOT from a mediocre team - a contender, so that pick will easily be either 30 or 29. Because Kessel is a complimentary player. Not a centre piece. He is the last piece of the puzzle for a contender. Not someone you build around. Four years have taught us that. His scoring hasn't lifted the Leafs from the leagues' basement standings.

A first round pick is about 50/50 whether they do much in the NHL. A low 1st round pick is less than that. Kessel isn't a 50/50 possibility of whether he'll play in the NHL. Ignoring chance of injury every player has, he's a proven 30+ goal scorer. So he's likely to attract more than that. Remember, with Boston, he'd had one good season. He's since proven that wasn't a fluke.

Kaberle got a 1st round pick & Joe Colborne (1st round pick prospect) and a conditional 2nd round pick (lowish picks because Boston was near the top of the league). Dmen are worth more than wingers but Kessel has age on his side. So that's roughly what one could expect for Kessel given a few teams would be bidding - probably more for the condition if he re-signs.

EDIT: rather than nailing down what exactly his  value is with the above, as I really need to give it more thought, the point is that I think Kessel is worth much more than a low 1st round pick.

Its funny how much we undervalue Kessel's worth due to the trade history. It's almost comical.

Buffalo gave up UFA-2b Gaustad & a 4th for a 1st from Nashville.

Edmonton got a 1st, 3rd and Teubert from LA for Dustin Penner (who was 1yr away from UFA status)

Phoenix for Lombardi, Prust & a 1st (2009 or 2010) for Jokinen (who was 1yr away from UFA status) and a 3rd

I think Kessel right now is worth more than all those players.

I would use the Kovalchuk deal as a basis and go from there.  Most people say Waddel did not get enough in that deal, but I think where Kessel is right now and where Kovalchuk was back then is somewhat similar.  Kovalchuk was probably valued more then than Kessel is now, but then you have the screw up on Waddel's side so maybe it evens out.

Definitely a closer talent comparison and a good suggestion. I'd agree that Kessel wouldn't be valued as much as Kovalchuk but Kessel's closer to Kovalchuk than he would be to Gaustad or Mike Fisher (1st and 3rd round pick).

 

[TML fan]

There isn't a person here who wouldn't trade Kessel if they thought he was leaving. Myself included.

And, what I'm saying, is if the Leafs decide to strip down like that, odds are, he's going to leave. So, if that's the plan, it's better to deal him sooner rather than later, because he's more valuable with more time on his contract - and, if a team acquires him before deadline day next season, they can still sign him to an 8 year deal instead of 7.

What odds? Like Vegas odds? That's just your opinion. Which is fine. I disagree with it.

 

[bustaheims]

What odds? Like Vegas odds? That's just your opinion. Which is fine. I disagree with it.

Well, history, really. How often do players in their primes that are about to have the ability to choose which team they play for stay with teams that have just stripped themselves down to their bare bones to rebuild?

 

[TML fan]

What odds? Like Vegas odds? That's just your opinion. Which is fine. I disagree with it.

Well, history, really. How often do players in their primes that are about to have the ability to choose which team they play for stay with teams that have just stripped themselves down to their bare bones to rebuild?

How often do they leave?

 

[bustaheims]

How often do they leave?

Quite frequently. Recent examples include guys like Hossa and Kovalchuk, who refused to sign extensions. Then there are guys like Nash or Luongo (when he was first traded to Vancouver), who demand trades.

 

[PG]

A little off topic but just wanted to address the notion that Kessel hasn't hit his prime yet.

I can't remember who exactly, I think it was Nik, had a post some time ago showing that almost every superstar had their best offensive season before their 25th birthday

I am 99% certain that list includes Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman, Thornton, Sakic, Sundin and almost every other big name you can think of. May only be a coincidence but I think there is something to it......

I guess what I'm trying to say is just because he had an excellent 82 point season at age 24.....doesn't mean he is a lock to eclipse that in the future.