Pietrangelo Watch

[Deebo]

They definitely do and AP is an elite D man.

Is he, though, or is he just the best UFA defenceman available in recent years. He?s a very good player, but I?ve never really thought of him really being in the truly upper echelons of his position.

He?d be a great addition to the team, but I don?t think I?d give up any of the Leafs high end young forwards to fit him in.

He is the probably the best defenseman the Leafs have any realistic chance at accquiring in the forseeable future.

Who would you say currently is in up the true upper echelon of NHL defensemen?

He's a true first pairing guy but I think I mislabelled him as elite. I don't think he's in Hedman's category but not far off.

Is anyone currently in Hedman's category?

 

[Frank E]

They definitely do and AP is an elite D man.

Is he, though, or is he just the best UFA defenceman available in recent years. He?s a very good player, but I?ve never really thought of him really being in the truly upper echelons of his position.

He?d be a great addition to the team, but I don?t think I?d give up any of the Leafs high end young forwards to fit him in.

He is the probably the best defenseman the Leafs have any realistic chance at accquiring in the forseeable future.

Who would you say currently is in up the true upper echelon of NHL defensemen?

These are my feelings here.  What's the alternative?

It's like we're awaiting the perfect age/stats/cap hit RHD to drop in their lap.

Pietrangelo is better than any defenseman they currently have.  Nik said no top 10 or anything, but I'm not so sure.

He'd be a great addition, and in a position the Leafs are currently in need.

 

[Guilt Trip]

They definitely do and AP is an elite D man.

Is he, though, or is he just the best UFA defenceman available in recent years. He?s a very good player, but I?ve never really thought of him really being in the truly upper echelons of his position.

He?d be a great addition to the team, but I don?t think I?d give up any of the Leafs high end young forwards to fit him in.

He is the probably the best defenseman the Leafs have any realistic chance at accquiring in the forseeable future.

Who would you say currently is in up the true upper echelon of NHL defensemen?

He's a true first pairing guy but I think I mislabelled him as elite. I don't think he's in Hedman's category but not far off.

Is anyone currently in Hedman's category?

Nobody. Who is considered elite these days? We don't get to see enough of these other guys for oursleves and have to base it off what we mostly read and see in highlights. There are a lot of really good D men that I don't consider elite. I don't think AP gets consideration for the Norris because he doesn't put up the points that the others do. He's a 40 to mid 50 point D man, not that it's a bad thing.

 

[Kin]

Pietrangelo is better than any defenseman they currently have.  Nik said no top 10 or anything, but I'm not so sure.

Nik said "probably" which seems to be a sign I'm not sure myself but it's pretty undeniable that his Norris voting record doesn't indicate someone universally seen as a top 10 defenseman in the league. To date he's got as many seasons without any Norris votes as he has top 10 finishes.

 

[Kin]

I don't think AP gets consideration for the Norris because he doesn't put up the points that the others do. He's a 40 to mid 50 point D man, not that it's a bad thing.

Just as a point of comparison, between 2012-2013 and 17-18, Pietrangelo had season point totals of 42(pro-rated), 51, 46, 37, 48 and 54 points. That's an average of 46 points a year. His Norris finishes over that time are 14th, 5th, 22nd, no votes, 16th and 9th.

By comparison, in the same stretch, Drew Doughty had seasons of 38(again, pro-rated), 37, 46, 51, 44 and 60. That is also an average of 46 points a year. Doughty's Norris finishes were 9th, 6th, 2nd, 1st, 7th, 2nd.

So it's not just a points thing.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I don't think AP gets consideration for the Norris because he doesn't put up the points that the others do. He's a 40 to mid 50 point D man, not that it's a bad thing.

Just as a point of comparison, between 2012-2013 and 17-18, Pietrangelo had season point totals of 42(pro-rated), 51, 46, 37, 48 and 54 points. That's an average of 46 points a year. His Norris finishes over that time are 14th, 5th, 22nd, no votes, 16th and 9th.

By comparison, in the same stretch, Drew Doughty had seasons of 38(again, pro-rated), 37, 46, 51, 44 and 60. That is also an average of 46 points a year. Doughty's Norris finishes were 9th, 6th, 2nd, 1st, 7th, 2nd.

So it's not just a points thing.

Thanks for that. Just curious do you think it could be based a little on how well the team is doing?

 

[Kin]

Thanks for that. Just curious do you think it could be based a little on how well the team is doing?

Absolutely. And there's also a hefty chunk of it just being a reputation thing where because Doughty established himself as a Norris contender so early on he's stuck there with some voters whether it's deserved or not.

I'm not saying Norris voting is the be-all and end-all, it has faults and biases. I just think it's a useful tool considering, as has been said, none of us can really judge other team's defensemen without watching them a lot.

 

[herman]

You could pull up some hockeyviz heatmaps and compare how much each defenseman (and other trade chips) mold their team's overall picture to go with rel stats and individual rates. This is just the free content, so it's limited to this past shortened season, vs the individual career maps, which shows their development (and team structure) changes over the years.

AP Off:

AP Def:

STL:

VH Off:

VH Def:

TBL:

They're both the offensive quarterbacks for their team that at the very least do not hurt their teams on defense (unlike Rielly, who is a really good rushing QB but gives up a lot of DZ chances). I'd argue that STL and TBL's top forwards are quite a bit more committed to defensive support, relative to the Leafs, so it's a bit easier for AP and VH there.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Thanks for that. Just curious do you think it could be based a little on how well the team is doing?

Absolutely. And there's also a hefty chunk of it just being a reputation thing where because Doughty established himself as a Norris contender so early on he's stuck there with some voters whether it's deserved or not.

I'm not saying Norris voting is the be-all and end-all, it has faults and biases. I just think it's a useful tool considering, as has been said, none of us can really judge other team's defensemen without watching them a lot.

Thx. I was thinking the same thing in regards to team success and reputation is also a great point.

 

[groundskeeper willie]

Thanks for that. Just curious do you think it could be based a little on how well the team is doing?

Absolutely. And there's also a hefty chunk of it just being a reputation thing where because Doughty established himself as a Norris contender so early on he's stuck there with some voters whether it's deserved or not.

I'm not saying Norris voting is the be-all and end-all, it has faults and biases. I just think it's a useful tool considering, as has been said, none of us can really judge other team's defensemen without watching them a lot.

Thx. I was thinking the same thing in regards to team success and reputation is also a great point.

Speaking of Doughty, if LA was willing to retain a large amount of his contract is he somebody worth considering or has he fallen off too much?

 

[herman]

The Pursuit of Pietrangelo will pretty much tell the tale on how the Leafs have to run the forward groups. For the past 3-4 seasons, they've been going with offensive top 9 and nullification bottom 3 (Gauthier!). Last season, they sort of tried that (Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Kapanen), but because of injury and Kap being Kap, it sort of got stuck in neither offensive overmatch or defensive stalwart. It was a lukewarm waste.

Chase Pietrangelo to fruition and we gut the 3rd line, plug it with Rodrigues/Agostino-type players and basically turn it into a second slightly better 4th line that tries to ensure nothing happens until Matthews/Tavares line shows up again. Tap out after Pietrangelo asks for 9M+ and we can try to pad Kerfoot's line with more two-way scoring depth and turn it into a passive counter attacking group (and then try again next year with Hamilton).

 

[bustaheims]

He is the probably the best defenseman the Leafs have any realistic chance at accquiring in the forseeable future.

Who would you say currently is in up the true upper echelon of NHL defensemen?

Hedman
Carlson
Josi
Burns (though, he's declining some, and is also a bit of an anomaly, as his best years came later in his career)

Those are the only guys in the league I'd consider to be elite guys year after year right now. There's a few others on the fringes who could get there with a few more really good years - like Jones, Makar, Hughes, maybe Chabot - and others that have dropped off in the last season or two - Doughty, Karlsson, etc. - but those 4 are the only ones I'd think of as the truly upper echelon in the league today. 

Pietrangelo is the best blueliner the Leafs have a shot at acquiring (that we know of), sure, but, I really question whether he adds enough to make up for the subtractions required for him to fit under the cap. Bringing him in at the cap number he's likely to sign for not only means taking pieces away from the roster, it also limits the team's ability to improve in other important areas.

 

[Guilt Trip]

He is the probably the best defenseman the Leafs have any realistic chance at accquiring in the forseeable future.

Who would you say currently is in up the true upper echelon of NHL defensemen?

Hedman
Carlson
Josi
Burns (though, he's declining some, and is also a bit of an anomaly, as his best years came later in his career)

Those are the only guys in the league I'd consider to be elite guys year after year right now. There's a few others on the fringes who could get there with a few more really good years - like Jones, Makar, Hughes, maybe Chabot - and others that have dropped off in the last season or two - Doughty, Karlsson, etc. - but those 4 are the only ones I'd think of as the truly upper echelon in the league today. 

Pietrangelo is the best blueliner the Leafs have a shot at acquiring (that we know of), sure, but, I really question whether he adds enough to make up for the subtractions required for him to fit under the cap. Bringing him in at the cap number he's likely to sign for not only means taking pieces away from the roster, it also limits the team's ability to improve in other important areas.

I heard today the Blues offered 8x8 but won't front load the contract with signing bonuses etc. Strickland said he could potentially leave for less money. He wants the money more upfront like others have. Says he feels disrespected by the Blues. I'm on the fence here. One hand I'd love to get him but I know it will cost Kerfoot/Johnsson minimum. Do we have enough in the system or could we get cheaper replacements? Maybe we go with 11F/7D next year? It's not like Johnsson and Kerfoot lit the world on fire. I think Johnsson had a terrible year especially for a guy that saw a lot of pp time so I'm not worried about him going. Kerfoot is the intriguing guy. Can he become that 3rd line centre? Can Engvall take a big leap forward? He only had 1 less goal then Kerfoot. Can we sign Rodrigues on the cheap? Is Spezza/Thornton/Koivu an option? Is Hallander close? Maybe Willy goes to 3rd centre here and there? At worst you're going to have Mikheyev/Robertson and Barabanov as 3rd line wingers. So many what ifs. I'd love to get Dubas', Keefe's and Shanny's thoughts.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I've flip-flopped about this a lot. On the one hand it'd just be fun to see how Dubas could fit him in, and it'd be amazing to watch Rielly play alongside an actual legitimate top pairing defenceman for the first time in his career (assuming he isn't the cap causality). But man there's just a ton of risk involved here too. There's a lot of defencemen in or around their 30s who aren't living up to their massive contracts right now (Karlsson, Doughty, Subban, Burns, OEL). And aside from OEL probably Pietrangelo never quite reached the highs of those players. If we sign him we really can't afford any drop in his play/on-ice value.

Maybe the biggest worry for me too is the majority of his contract would fall in a time where the cap is mostly stagnant. If we were still seeing cap growth of $2-4mil per year this would be a different story. Instead we could see little-to-no growth for the next 4 seasons. And it's likely not going to explode after that.

 

[Frank E]

I've flip-flopped about this a lot. On the one hand it'd just be fun to see how Dubas could fit him in, and it'd be amazing to watch Rielly play alongside an actual legitimate top pairing defenceman for the first time in his career (assuming he isn't the cap causality). But man there's just a ton of risk involved here too. There's a lot of defencemen in or around their 30s who aren't living up to their massive contracts right now (Karlsson, Doughty, Subban, Burns, OEL). And aside from OEL probably Pietrangelo never quite reached the highs of those players. If we sign him we really can't afford any drop in his play/on-ice value.

Maybe the biggest worry for me too is the majority of his contract would fall in a time where the cap is mostly stagnant. If we were still seeing cap growth of $2-4mil per year this would be a different story. Instead we could see little-to-no growth for the next 4 seasons. And it's likely not going to explode after that.

You good at $8 X 7?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

You good at $8 X 7?

For a team that needs a defenceman like Pietrangelo, doesn't already have multiple massive contracts on their books, that has the cap space to fit him in, and operates in a world where the cap is rising every single year that's probably a very fair UFA contract for a player of his caliber.

We only tick one of those four boxes. So I just don't think it's as simple as saying "yes of course we should sign him he's the best defenceman available".

Would I be good with that contract if it meant selling Nylander for less than he's worth to create the cap space, thereby leaving Marner as the only top-6 winger on the team? I'm not sure.

Would I be good with that contract if it meant trading Rielly after an off-year, which would balance out our L-D defence a little more evenly but still leave our defence very top heavy? I'm not sure.

Would I be good with that contract if it meant trading Andersen and only being able to replace him with a $2mil type goalie? I'm not sure.

Would I be good with that contract if it meant having to trade Johnsson/Kerfoot/Engvall and completely destroying our forward depth? Again, not sure.

So signing Pietrangelo might finally solve that massive hole we've had on our right defence but it's also bound to create a massive hole somewhere else on the team. And again a flat cap means that it's not just this season that casualties will have to be made. If Rielly isn't the one who gets traded he's basically 100% gone after his deal is up. It could mean we never really have the available cap space to have a $5mil type goalie again. It could mean our depth continues to get worse later in his contract once guys like Hyman, Mikheyev, and Robertson need new contracts.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I've flip-flopped about this a lot. On the one hand it'd just be fun to see how Dubas could fit him in, and it'd be amazing to watch Rielly play alongside an actual legitimate top pairing defenceman for the first time in his career (assuming he isn't the cap causality). But man there's just a ton of risk involved here too. There's a lot of defencemen in or around their 30s who aren't living up to their massive contracts right now (Karlsson, Doughty, Subban, Burns, OEL). And aside from OEL probably Pietrangelo never quite reached the highs of those players. If we sign him we really can't afford any drop in his play/on-ice value.

Maybe the biggest worry for me too is the majority of his contract would fall in a time where the cap is mostly stagnant. If we were still seeing cap growth of $2-4mil per year this would be a different story. Instead we could see little-to-no growth for the next 4 seasons. And it's likely not going to explode after that.

You good at $8 X 7?

That would get me leaning more to the yes side of things. Who knows, maybe he takes less to come home, like JT?

 

[Guilt Trip]

You good at $8 X 7?

For a team that needs a defenceman like Pietrangelo, doesn't already have multiple massive contracts on their books, that has the cap space to fit him in, and operates in a world where the cap is rising every single year that's probably a very fair UFA contract for a player of his caliber.

We only tick one of those four boxes. So I just don't think it's as simple as saying "yes of course we should sign him he's the best defenceman available".

Would I be good with that contract if it meant selling Nylander for less than he's worth to create the cap space, thereby leaving Marner as the only top-6 winger on the team? I'm not sure.

Would I be good with that contract if it meant trading Rielly after an off-year, which would balance out our L-D defence a little more evenly but still leave our defence very top heavy? I'm not sure.

Would I be good with that contract if it meant trading Andersen and only being able to replace him with a $2mil type goalie? I'm not sure.

Would I be good with that contract if it meant having to trade Johnsson/Kerfoot/Engvall and completely destroying our forward depth? Again, not sure.

So signing Pietrangelo might finally solve that massive hole we've had on our right defence but it's also bound to create a massive hole somewhere else on the team. And again a flat cap means that it's not just this season that casualties will have to be made. If Rielly isn't the one who gets traded he's basically 100% gone after his deal is up. It could mean we never really have the available cap space to have a $5mil type goalie again. It could mean our depth continues to get worse later in his contract once guys like Hyman, Mikheyev, and Robertson need new contracts.

Stop making sense! Some very valid points. Of course this is all a moot point if someone opens the purse and overpays or he just signs back with St Louis.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'd be super stoked to land Pietrangelo. But, with the way this team is structured (the four huge forward contracts), it's probably going to have to be a platoon defense. Unlikely, but making a trade for someone like Brett Pesce would probably really help and a much wiser use of funds.

 

[herman]

How close is Pietrangelo now to Zdeno Chara back in 2005-6? I think we should take a swing but with a hard line limit where the hole that is punched to accommodate AP is too arduous to repair.
https://twitter.com/SammyT_51/status/1308119519689240577

I'm maxed at 7.27M AAV over 7 yrs with whatever structure is nice and attractive for him to move his young family, but also give some flexibility to both parties if it ends up not working as expected, while still leveraging MLSE infinite cash. Yeah the AAV is less than STL's 7.7M offer, but they hate NMCs and SBs.
Example:
5 (4M SB, NMC)
7 (6M SB, NMC)
8.89 (7M SB, NMC)
10.5 (10M SB, m-NTC)
8 (7M SB, m-NTC)
6 (5M SB, m-NTC)
5.5 (4M SB, m-NTC)