Pietrangelo Watch

[L K]

You good at $8 X 7?

For a team that needs a defenceman like Pietrangelo, doesn't already have multiple massive contracts on their books, that has the cap space to fit him in, and operates in a world where the cap is rising every single year that's probably a very fair UFA contract for a player of his caliber.

We only tick one of those four boxes. So I just don't think it's as simple as saying "yes of course we should sign him he's the best defenceman available".

Would I be good with that contract if it meant selling Nylander for less than he's worth to create the cap space, thereby leaving Marner as the only top-6 winger on the team? I'm not sure.

Would I be good with that contract if it meant trading Rielly after an off-year, which would balance out our L-D defence a little more evenly but still leave our defence very top heavy? I'm not sure.

Would I be good with that contract if it meant trading Andersen and only being able to replace him with a $2mil type goalie? I'm not sure.

Would I be good with that contract if it meant having to trade Johnsson/Kerfoot/Engvall and completely destroying our forward depth? Again, not sure.

So signing Pietrangelo might finally solve that massive hole we've had on our right defence but it's also bound to create a massive hole somewhere else on the team. And again a flat cap means that it's not just this season that casualties will have to be made. If Rielly isn't the one who gets traded he's basically 100% gone after his deal is up. It could mean we never really have the available cap space to have a $5mil type goalie again. It could mean our depth continues to get worse later in his contract once guys like Hyman, Mikheyev, and Robertson need new contracts.

These are basically problems with our roster without Pietrangelo.

If the cap stays flat for 2 years for sure and maybe as far as 4 years.  Unless we have a drastic change in how teams get cap relief with a stagnant revenue stream the Leafs aren't going to have the money to re-sign guys like Hyman or sign a 5 million dollar defenseman because we don't have the cap space to sign those guys now.  Obviously our 3rd/4th line are going to have to be populated by rookies and cheap veterans but that is going to be incredibly hit or miss year over year. 

It's not Dubas' fault that the league has a hard cap and COVID hit but the Leafs are going to be hard pressed to have reliable depth even without Pietrangelo. 

 

[louisstamos]

Just had a thought - is there any way acquiring an LTIR player again would help the Leafs again in this scenario?  Not so much for Pietrangelo, but if he's signed at $7 or $8 per, then for squeezing the last couple of depth guys into the lineup?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

These are basically problems with our roster without Pietrangelo.

If the cap stays flat for 2 years for sure and maybe as far as 4 years.  Unless we have a drastic change in how teams get cap relief with a stagnant revenue stream the Leafs aren't going to have the money to re-sign guys like Hyman or sign a 5 million dollar defenseman because we don't have the cap space to sign those guys now.  Obviously our 3rd/4th line are going to have to be populated by rookies and cheap veterans but that is going to be incredibly hit or miss year over year. 

It's not Dubas' fault that the league has a hard cap and COVID hit but the Leafs are going to be hard pressed to have reliable depth even without Pietrangelo. 

You're definitely not wrong. The flat cap has really, really screwed the Leafs. But acquiring yet another big priced contract just exuberates their problems with the caps. In the past I've talked about signing both Brodie and a Gudas/DeMelo which would likely result in us needing about $8mil in cap space for them and I'd be more comfortable with that from a bookkeeping perspective just because of how much more flexibility we have with a $5mil and $3mil contract vs. a one $8mil contract.

 

[Kin]

How close is Pietrangelo now to Zdeno Chara back in 2005-6?

Close-ish but Chara was a little younger and coming off seasons where he was a 1st and then a 2nd team all-star. Chara absolutely was in that upper echelon of defensemen when he signed.

 

[bustaheims]

Close-ish but Chara was a little younger and coming off seasons where he was a 1st and then a 2nd team all-star. Chara absolutely was in that upper echelon of defensemen when he signed.

Yeah. Chara was unquestioningly one of the top 3 defencemen in the league when he signed with the Bruins. Pietrangelo is not that.

A better analog would be Zubov - a very good RHD, who had a couple seasons among the top handful in the league at his position, but was generally considered to be a tier below the elite guys (granted, the comparison is not helpful for UFA signing value, just for general value around the league).

 

[herman]

Close-ish but Chara was a little younger and coming off seasons where he was a 1st and then a 2nd team all-star. Chara absolutely was in that upper echelon of defensemen when he signed.

Yeah. Chara was unquestioningly one of the top 3 defencemen in the league when he signed with the Bruins. Pietrangelo is not that.

A better analog would be Zubov - a very good RHD, who had a couple seasons among the top handful in the league at his position, but was generally considered to be a tier below the elite guys (granted, the comparison is not helpful for UFA signing value, just for general value around the league).

Chara rightfully then got 17.05% of the cap (7.5M over 5 years). I don't think Pietrangelo is asking for more than McDavid. He's looking at just north of 10%. Stanley Cup captain vs All Star accolades?

 

[Kin]

Chara rightfully then got 17.05% of the cap (7.5M over 5 years). I don't think Pietrangelo is asking for more than McDavid. He's looking at just north of 10%. Stanley Cup captain vs All Star accolades?

Looking at deals as %'s of cap can be useful when trying to measure guys in different years but you can't forget the real dollars involved. The cap growing hasn't typically meant that individual salaries have grown to keep pace and no matter what the cap was in 2006, Chara wasn't getting offered 13 million.

 

[herman]

Chara rightfully then got 17.05% of the cap (7.5M over 5 years). I don't think Pietrangelo is asking for more than McDavid. He's looking at just north of 10%. Stanley Cup captain vs All Star accolades?

Looking at deals as %'s of cap can be useful when trying to measure guys in different years but you can't forget the real dollars involved. The cap growing hasn't typically meant that individual salaries have grown to keep pace and no matter what the cap was in 2006, Chara wasn't getting offered 13 million.

True; Chara comparison might be too far back (2 CBAs). Any recent signings of a Chara caliber to set a high water mark? Karlsson (14.47%) before the injury; Doughty (13.84%) before he stopped trying? Pietrangelo is targeting the Josi (11.12%) deal as a comparable and anchored nominally by Brodin's (7.36%) (not to mention Faulk's 7.98% lol) and I think that's a pretty fair range (10.25% = ~8.3M).

 

[Frank E]

I don't think anyone here is really suggesting that AP wouldn't get ~$8m long term on the market. 

I think we're trying to figure out if the Leafs can make this work, and if it's worth the subtractions to the roster to get there.

Maybe they could double down on their offensive strategy and go the route of having a bottom six filled with sub $1m contracts, and the ELC twins on the back end to make Pietrangelo cap affordable in the short term.

 

[Kin]

I have to be honest, I'm still really unsure of the math here. Isn't any serious pursuit of Pietrangelo dependent not only on the Leafs dealing Marner or Nylander but also on getting effectively nothing back for them in terms of salary? So the idea that the signing would be a net gain of any considerable measure is predicated on what...getting a high contributing piece back still on their rookie deal?

 

[Guilt Trip]

I have to be honest, I'm still really unsure of the math here. Isn't any serious pursuit of Pietrangelo dependent not only on the Leafs dealing Marner or Nylander but also on getting effectively nothing back for them in terms of salary? So the idea that the signing would be a net gain of any considerable measure is predicated on what...getting a high contributing piece back still on their rookie deal?

Kind of. They could potentially move Kerfoot and Johnsson instead of Nylander for picks/prospects/elc's and have enough to sign Pietrangelo.

 

[Kin]

Kind of. They could potentially move Kerfoot and Johnsson instead of Nylander for picks/prospects/elc's and have enough to sign Pietrangelo.

Could you though? Right now the Leafs have 6.1 million in cap space. If you trade Kerfoot and Johnsson that goes to 13 million. Assuming you could sign Pietrangelo for 8 per, that would leave you with 5 million to sign 6 forwards and Dermott.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Kind of. They could potentially move Kerfoot and Johnsson instead of Nylander for picks/prospects/elc's and have enough to sign Pietrangelo.

Could you though? Right now the Leafs have 6.1 million in cap space. If you trade Kerfoot and Johnsson that goes to 13 million. Assuming you could sign Pietrangelo for 8 per, that would leave you with 5 million to sign 6 forwards and Dermott.

Dermott and Engvall would both need to go as well. Dermott wouldn't be a big loss with Pietrangelo's addition. Losing those 3 forwards though would really hurt, especially since basically everyone in the bottom-6 would need to be on sub-$1mil contracts and I'm not sure where you're getting a viable 3C for that.

 

[herman]

Or Andersen

 

[Kin]

But I guess what I'm really saying is that whatever salary gets moved out you can't really take any salary back for it. Because I've seen a few trade proposals in this thread that had the Leafs getting actual players back for Marner/Nylander and that seems like it can't happen for sure.

Even getting ELC players you'd have to resign yourself to the fact that you couldn't sign them whenever their deals were up.

It's just bizarre how this is a league where the closer a player gets to being paid what they're actually worth, the more their "value" is effectively zero.

 

[dappleganger]

Kind of. They could potentially move Kerfoot and Johnsson instead of Nylander for picks/prospects/elc's and have enough to sign Pietrangelo.

Could you though? Right now the Leafs have 6.1 million in cap space. If you trade Kerfoot and Johnsson that goes to 13 million. Assuming you could sign Pietrangelo for 8 per, that would leave you with 5 million to sign 6 forwards and Dermott.

Dermott and Engvall would both need to go as well. Dermott wouldn't be a big loss with Pietrangelo's addition. Losing those 3 forwards though would really hurt, especially since basically everyone in the bottom-6 would need to be on sub-$1mil contracts and I'm not sure where you're getting a viable 3C for that.

If the Leafs sign AP, Dermott can go for futures.

 

[Frank E]

One thing to remember though is what's left on their contracts in real dollars:

Marner = $6.06m X 5
Nylander = $6.13 X 4

Then they're both UFA.  Now, given COVID finances over the next season or so, how do they look from a return perspective from teams that are more cash strapped.

 

[Frank E]

More fun:

Tavares: $8.6m X 5
Matthews: $7.8m X 4
Andersen : $1m X 1

Rielly is actually equal to his cap hit: $5m X 2.

EDIT:  All UFA at contract maturity.  Make your bets everyone...the window is closing very quickly.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Kind of. They could potentially move Kerfoot and Johnsson instead of Nylander for picks/prospects/elc's and have enough to sign Pietrangelo.

Could you though? Right now the Leafs have 6.1 million in cap space. If you trade Kerfoot and Johnsson that goes to 13 million. Assuming you could sign Pietrangelo for 8 per, that would leave you with 5 million to sign 6 forwards and Dermott.

Dermott and Engvall would both need to go as well. Dermott wouldn't be a big loss with Pietrangelo's addition. Losing those 3 forwards though would really hurt, especially since basically everyone in the bottom-6 would need to be on sub-$1mil contracts and I'm not sure where you're getting a viable 3C for that.

Engvall can definitely stay. Dermott can stay but it depends what he signs for.
Here's what I came up with goofing around...

Hyman(2.25) Matthews(11,634,000) Marner(10,893,000)
Robertson(821,667) JT(11) Nylander(6,962,366)
Mikheyev(1.25) Engvall(1.25) Barabanov(925)
Rodrigues(1.25) Spezza(1) Simmonds(1.25)
F- 50,486,033

Rielly(5) Pietrangelo(8mill)
Muzz(5.625) Holl(2)
Sandin(894,167) Dermott(1.25)
D-23,019,167

Kuemper(4.5) Campbell(1.65)
G-6,150,000
If you stay with Freddie we add another 500k

plus 1.2 for Kessel for a total of 80,605,200 and would leave the Leafs with 894800 in cap space.
It can be done.

 

[Bender]

Kind of. They could potentially move Kerfoot and Johnsson instead of Nylander for picks/prospects/elc's and have enough to sign Pietrangelo.

Could you though? Right now the Leafs have 6.1 million in cap space. If you trade Kerfoot and Johnsson that goes to 13 million. Assuming you could sign Pietrangelo for 8 per, that would leave you with 5 million to sign 6 forwards and Dermott.

Dermott and Engvall would both need to go as well. Dermott wouldn't be a big loss with Pietrangelo's addition. Losing those 3 forwards though would really hurt, especially since basically everyone in the bottom-6 would need to be on sub-$1mil contracts and I'm not sure where you're getting a viable 3C for that.

Engvall can definitely stay. Dermott can stay but it depends what he signs for.
Here's what I came up with goofing around...

Hyman(2.25) Matthews(11,634,000) Marner(10,893,000)
Robertson(821,667) JT(11) Nylander(6,962,366)
Mikheyev(1.25) Engvall(1.25) Barabanov(925)
Rodrigues(1.25) Spezza(1) Simmonds(1.25)
F- 50,486,033

Rielly(5) Pietrangelo(8mill)
Muzz(5.625) Holl(2)
Sandin(894,167) Dermott(1.25)
D-23,019,167

Kuemper(4.5) Campbell(1.65)
G-6,150,000
If you stay with Freddie we add another 500k

plus 1.2 for Kessel for a total of 80,605,200 and would leave the Leafs with 894800 in cap space.
It can be done.

Man that forward group is bad. I really do think we're better off with added depth. Also could you imagine if AP gets injured? To me its just too much to tie up into one more asset. We need depth.