Pietrangelo Watch

[Phileas Fogg]

If you shoehorn Pieterangelo in without moving the big 4 aren't you essentially forced to let Reilly and Hyman walk at the end of their deals?

 

[herman]

One thing to remember though is what's left on their contracts in real dollars:

Marner = $6.06m X 5
Nylander = $6.13 X 4

Then they're both UFA.  Now, given COVID finances over the next season or so, how do they look from a return perspective from teams that are more cash strapped.

Low total dollars relative to the whole on Marner's deal, but which owner is going to sign off on dropping ~10M and then 7Mx4 in signing bonuses with COVID finances that are so cash strapped they're cutting ops and running an internal cap ON TOP of the trade capital that the Leafs would capitulate on (cost-controlled young defenseman like Heiskanen or top 5OA picks + additional cost-controlled youth?)?

They're both staying.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Kind of. They could potentially move Kerfoot and Johnsson instead of Nylander for picks/prospects/elc's and have enough to sign Pietrangelo.

Could you though? Right now the Leafs have 6.1 million in cap space. If you trade Kerfoot and Johnsson that goes to 13 million. Assuming you could sign Pietrangelo for 8 per, that would leave you with 5 million to sign 6 forwards and Dermott.

Dermott and Engvall would both need to go as well. Dermott wouldn't be a big loss with Pietrangelo's addition. Losing those 3 forwards though would really hurt, especially since basically everyone in the bottom-6 would need to be on sub-$1mil contracts and I'm not sure where you're getting a viable 3C for that.

Engvall can definitely stay. Dermott can stay but it depends what he signs for.
Here's what I came up with goofing around...

Hyman(2.25) Matthews(11,634,000) Marner(10,893,000)
Robertson(821,667) JT(11) Nylander(6,962,366)
Mikheyev(1.25) Engvall(1.25) Barabanov(925)
Rodrigues(1.25) Spezza(1) Simmonds(1.25)
F- 50,486,033

Rielly(5) Pietrangelo(8mill)
Muzz(5.625) Holl(2)
Sandin(894,167) Dermott(1.25)
D-23,019,167

Kuemper(4.5) Campbell(1.65)
G-6,150,000
If you stay with Freddie we add another 500k

plus 1.2 for Kessel for a total of 80,605,200 and would leave the Leafs with 894800 in cap space.
It can be done.

Man that forward group is bad. I really do think we're better off with added depth. Also could you imagine if AP gets injured? To me its just too much to tie up into one more asset. We need depth.

If AP gets hurt we go back to last year's D core. We did run for a period last year with Rielly, Muzz and CC out. Injuries happen. We also don't know how good Lehtonen is He could surprise. As for the forwards. I think the weak spot is 3rd line centre but I think the wingers are fine.
Johnsson was bad last year. He was on a 40 point pace while getting the 7th most PP time. Kerfoot was worse. Mikheyev was way ahead of both in points per 60(without PP time) and Even points per 60. 

Anyway, I was just goofing around to see if AP could fit in. I'm sure they might be able to find a 3rd line centre, possibly a vet that would sign for a low hit. Could Thornton be that guy? Koivu? I don't know, I haven't really thought much about who could play there.

 

[Guilt Trip]

If you shoehorn Pieterangelo in without moving the big 4 aren't you essentially forced to let Reilly and Hyman walk at the end of their deals?

Hyman would have to accept a similar deal or he'd be gone unless the Leafs go with a cheaper goalie. Freddie and his 5 mill are off the books after next season. Maybe Scott or Woll will be ready? Who knows? You also gain 1.2 mill in cap space when Rielly is up as Kessel comes off the books.

 

[bustaheims]

Man that forward group is bad. I really do think we're better off with added depth. Also could you imagine if AP gets injured? To me its just too much to tie up into one more asset. We need depth.

That?s where I?m at, too. As nice as it would be to add a top pair RHD, I don?t think it improves the team enough in the short-term, as it would decimate the potential for any real depth on the roster, and it puts them in a tough position to improve in the long-term. I mean, in Guilt Trip?s proposed roster, there isn?t enough cap space to carry extra skaters on a full time basis - there?s room for one at league minimum,  but that?s it.

It?s unfortunate, but I don?t think there?s a way for the Leafs to sign Pietrangelo without subtracting significant talent elsewhere - and that might just make it a zero sum equation.

 

[Bender]

Kind of. They could potentially move Kerfoot and Johnsson instead of Nylander for picks/prospects/elc's and have enough to sign Pietrangelo.

Could you though? Right now the Leafs have 6.1 million in cap space. If you trade Kerfoot and Johnsson that goes to 13 million. Assuming you could sign Pietrangelo for 8 per, that would leave you with 5 million to sign 6 forwards and Dermott.

Dermott and Engvall would both need to go as well. Dermott wouldn't be a big loss with Pietrangelo's addition. Losing those 3 forwards though would really hurt, especially since basically everyone in the bottom-6 would need to be on sub-$1mil contracts and I'm not sure where you're getting a viable 3C for that.

Engvall can definitely stay. Dermott can stay but it depends what he signs for.
Here's what I came up with goofing around...

Hyman(2.25) Matthews(11,634,000) Marner(10,893,000)
Robertson(821,667) JT(11) Nylander(6,962,366)
Mikheyev(1.25) Engvall(1.25) Barabanov(925)
Rodrigues(1.25) Spezza(1) Simmonds(1.25)
F- 50,486,033

Rielly(5) Pietrangelo(8mill)
Muzz(5.625) Holl(2)
Sandin(894,167) Dermott(1.25)
D-23,019,167

Kuemper(4.5) Campbell(1.65)
G-6,150,000
If you stay with Freddie we add another 500k

plus 1.2 for Kessel for a total of 80,605,200 and would leave the Leafs with 894800 in cap space.
It can be done.

Man that forward group is bad. I really do think we're better off with added depth. Also could you imagine if AP gets injured? To me its just too much to tie up into one more asset. We need depth.

If AP gets hurt we go back to last year's D core. We did run for a period last year with Rielly, Muzz and CC out. Injuries happen. We also don't know how good Lehtonen is He could surprise. As for the forwards. I think the weak spot is 3rd line centre but I think the wingers are fine.
Johnsson was bad last year. He was on a 40 point pace while getting the 7th most PP time. Kerfoot was worse. Mikheyev was way ahead of both in points per 60(without PP time) and Even points per 60. 

Anyway, I was just goofing around to see if AP could fit in. I'm sure they might be able to find a 3rd line centre, possibly a vet that would sign for a low hit. Could Thornton be that guy? Koivu? I don't know, I haven't really thought much about who could play there.

Last years core? We did have Ceci and Barrie also. As much as I didn't like them they're still better depth than what we'd have with AP injured...

 

[Bender]

Man that forward group is bad. I really do think we're better off with added depth. Also could you imagine if AP gets injured? To me its just too much to tie up into one more asset. We need depth.

That?s where I?m at, too. As nice as it would be to add a top pair RHD, I don?t think it improves the team enough in the short-term, as it would decimate the potential for any real depth on the roster, and it puts them in a tough position to improve in the long-term. I mean, in Guilt Trip?s proposed roster, there isn?t enough cap space to carry extra skaters on a full time basis - there?s room for one at league minimum,  but that?s it.

It?s unfortunate, but I don?t think there?s a way for the Leafs to sign Pietrangelo without subtracting significant talent elsewhere - and that might just make it a zero sum equation.

I'm totally on the Gudas & Brodie/De Melo train and seeing if you can manoever after that. Also what people forget is you can still make a decent deal at the deadline if we've accrued enough space.

 

[Redleaf]

Man that forward group is bad. I really do think we're better off with added depth. Also could you imagine if AP gets injured? To me its just too much to tie up into one more asset. We need depth.

That?s where I?m at, too. As nice as it would be to add a top pair RHD, I don?t think it improves the team enough in the short-term, as it would decimate the potential for any real depth on the roster, and it puts them in a tough position to improve in the long-term. I mean, in Guilt Trip?s proposed roster, there isn?t enough cap space to carry extra skaters on a full time basis - there?s room for one at league minimum,  but that?s it.

It?s unfortunate, but I don?t think there?s a way for the Leafs to sign Pietrangelo without subtracting significant talent elsewhere - and that might just make it a zero sum equation.

Why does it seem so necessary to everyone the need to hold on to this overloaded offence? As painful as it feels now, the only (and best) way forward is to dump Nylander or Marner for a) defensive help now b) defensive help in the future c) a combination of both. Dump Nylander for a pick or 2. Draft some D-men and bring AP aboard. There really isn't a better option to improve this teams greatest area of need.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Last years core? We did have Ceci and Barrie also. As much as I didn't like them they're still better depth than what we'd have with AP injured...

Our core as it stands now is Muzzin, Rielly, Holl and Sandin, Lehtonen, Liljegren, Rosen, Marincin. Lehtonen is the wild card here even if they sign Dermott to a reasonable hit.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Man that forward group is bad. I really do think we're better off with added depth. Also could you imagine if AP gets injured? To me its just too much to tie up into one more asset. We need depth.

That?s where I?m at, too. As nice as it would be to add a top pair RHD, I don?t think it improves the team enough in the short-term, as it would decimate the potential for any real depth on the roster, and it puts them in a tough position to improve in the long-term. I mean, in Guilt Trip?s proposed roster, there isn?t enough cap space to carry extra skaters on a full time basis - there?s room for one at league minimum,  but that?s it.

It?s unfortunate, but I don?t think there?s a way for the Leafs to sign Pietrangelo without subtracting significant talent elsewhere - and that might just make it a zero sum equation.

Why does it seem so necessary to everyone the need to hold on to this overloaded offence? As painful as it feels now, the only (and best) way forward is to dump Nylander or Marner for a) defensive help now b) defensive help in the future c) a combination of both. Dump Nylander for a pick or 2. Draft some D-men and bring AP aboard. There really isn't a better option to improve this teams greatest area of need.

I would try to keep the top 4 guys and go the Kerfoot/Johnsson route if I was going to take a run at AP. That's a big if because I'm still undecided. I wonder how many people here even knowing our depth, would do Kerfoot/Johnsson for AP, making his 8 mill for 7 years, in a trade? When I look at it this way, I think it's a no brainer. You make that deal, no? We're losing 17 goals, 48 pts from these guys. AP scored 16 goals, 52 pts. If you add in Kappy you need to find another 13 goals. I think Robertson and Barabanov can more then take care of that.
So on one hand.........and back on the fence I go lol.

 

[Kin]

Why does it seem so necessary to everyone the need to hold on to this overloaded offence?

It's not a matter of holding onto one thing or another, it's just a recognition that the reality of the cap makes peeling off one of those 4 guys a likely zero-sum game. It's rearranging talent instead of improving it and I think that strikes a lot of people as not being a particularly effective method of the team actually getting better. I appreciate that after some tough playoff losses some fans are going to be content with a team that's just different as opposed to better but I don't think that should be the team's goal.

I get that there's a lot of impatience out there but realistically the team's only chance of improving by the margins they need to is going to come through internal development.

 

[bustaheims]

Why does it seem so necessary to everyone the need to hold on to this overloaded offence? As painful as it feels now, the only (and best) way forward is to dump Nylander or Marner for a) defensive help now b) defensive help in the future c) a combination of both. Dump Nylander for a pick or 2. Draft some D-men and bring AP aboard. There really isn't a better option to improve this teams greatest area of need.

There's a very fine line between the Leafs being one of the better offensive teams in the league and them being an average or worse team. With Kapanen already traded, losing Nylander's offence without replacing a significant chunk of it would almost certainly mean the defensive improvements only work to even things out (at best, quite frankly - we're talking about removing a significant piece of the offence without anyone to replace them) rather than improving the team.

Everyone is so focused on upgrading the blueline to fix the defensive issues, and I think some people over-estimate the defensive impact of adding Pietrangelo. He'll help, but he won't be a cure-all by any means. With the loss of offence required to make this work, unless the team as a whole gets better defensively, adding to the blueline alone doesn't move the needle enough to make a real difference. They'd be a slightly more balanced team (kind of - offence would become even more top-heavy, but blueline would be less of a skeleton crew), but they wouldn't necessarily be better.

Defence is a team game. Always has been, always will be. To see the improvements we really want, the Leafs need to add defensive help/improve their defensive play without subtracting significantly from their offence. Anything else is basically treading water.

 

[Redleaf]

Man that forward group is bad. I really do think we're better off with added depth. Also could you imagine if AP gets injured? To me its just too much to tie up into one more asset. We need depth.

That?s where I?m at, too. As nice as it would be to add a top pair RHD, I don?t think it improves the team enough in the short-term, as it would decimate the potential for any real depth on the roster, and it puts them in a tough position to improve in the long-term. I mean, in Guilt Trip?s proposed roster, there isn?t enough cap space to carry extra skaters on a full time basis - there?s room for one at league minimum,  but that?s it.

It?s unfortunate, but I don?t think there?s a way for the Leafs to sign Pietrangelo without subtracting significant talent elsewhere - and that might just make it a zero sum equation.

Why does it seem so necessary to everyone the need to hold on to this overloaded offence? As painful as it feels now, the only (and best) way forward is to dump Nylander or Marner for a) defensive help now b) defensive help in the future c) a combination of both. Dump Nylander for a pick or 2. Draft some D-men and bring AP aboard. There really isn't a better option to improve this teams greatest area of need.

I would try to keep the top 4 guys and go the Kerfoot/Johnsson route if I was going to take a run at AP. That's a big if because I'm still undecided. I wonder how many people here even knowing our depth, would do Kerfoot/Johnsson for AP, making his 8 mill for 7 years, in a trade? When I look at it this way, I think it's a no brainer. You make that deal, no? We're losing 17 goals, 48 pts from these guys. AP scored 16 goals, 52 pts. If you add in Kappy you need to find another 13 goals. I think Robertson and Barabanov can more then take care of that.
So on one hand.........and back on the fence I go lol.

The return is just not going to be as pronounced unless you offer up a real offensive talent like Nylander. Sure you could get lucky with some decent picks for those two, but your chances of drafting a really good defenseman diminish by leaps and bounds.

 

[Kin]

Also, for what it's worth, I think the last thing the team should be looking to draft is a defenseman. Forward depth and goaltending are much bigger issues right now.

 

[bustaheims]

Also, for what it's worth, I think the last thing the team should be looking to draft is a defenseman. Forward depth and goaltending are much bigger issues right now.

Yeah. Where the Leafs are drafting this year (at least, in the first round), the higher ceiling guys are forwards (or Askarov, if he's still on the board). If there were more highly thought of defencemen available in this year's draft, I might see the wisdom in going for one (best player available and all), but, there aren't really. There's two guys who will almost certainly get taken in the top 10, and then there's a bunch of guys that aren't consistently ranked as first rounders. Not the big swings the Leafs need to take with their picks right now.

 

[Redleaf]

Also, for what it's worth, I think the last thing the team should be looking to draft is a defenseman. Forward depth and goaltending are much bigger issues right now.

The return for trading a solid offensive piece like Nylander should give you more options to address any area you see fit. As does having 2 selections in the first round.

 

[Kin]

The return for trading a solid offensive piece like Nylander should give you more options to address any area you see fit. As does having 2 selections in the first round.

The Leafs don't have 2 first round picks, unless you're assuming one would be returning in the supposed Nylander trade, but even then I still wouldn't be looking to draft defensemen. Being realistic about time frames means that any defenseman drafted is still likely 3-4 years away from being a solid contributor or, effectively, not until the next iteration of the team.

Because of where the team is looking for solid forward prospects with a realistic chance to contribute in the next couple of years is probably their best chance to improve the current team in a meaningful way.

Also, with the cap situation the way it is, I'd probably hold off on assuming that teams will just be lining up to throw awesome trade packages at the Leafs for Nylander

 

[Frank E]

One thing to remember though is what's left on their contracts in real dollars:

Marner = $6.06m X 5
Nylander = $6.13 X 4

Then they're both UFA.  Now, given COVID finances over the next season or so, how do they look from a return perspective from teams that are more cash strapped.

Low total dollars relative to the whole on Marner's deal, but which owner is going to sign off on dropping ~10M and then 7Mx4 in signing bonuses with COVID finances that are so cash strapped they're cutting ops and running an internal cap ON TOP of the trade capital that the Leafs would capitulate on (cost-controlled young defenseman like Heiskanen or top 5OA picks + additional cost-controlled youth?)?

They're both staying.

We shall see.

 

[Kin]

I kind of feel like the people advocating for trading Marner and Nylander need to be slightly more specific with their thoughts on what the returns would actually be(and from who) because it seems like a lot of the value being espoused there is pretty hard to pin down.

Like, I like Nylander a lot but I don't think he's a good enough player that teams in need of a franchise type player would eagerly give away their shots at one.

 

[Redleaf]

The return for trading a solid offensive piece like Nylander should give you more options to address any area you see fit. As does having 2 selections in the first round.

The Leafs don't have 2 first round picks, unless you're assuming one would be returning in the supposed Nylander trade, but even then I still wouldn't be looking to draft defensemen. Being realistic about time frames means that any defenseman drafted is still likely 3-4 years away from being a solid contributor or, effectively, not until the next iteration of the team.

Because of where the team is looking for solid forward prospects with a realistic chance to contribute in the next couple of years is probably their best chance to improve the current team in a meaningful way.

Also, with the cap situation the way it is, I'd probably hold off on assuming that teams will just be lining up to throw awesome trade packages at the Leafs for Nylander

Well I can't argue with most of your logic here, but the Leafs are still a young club. So while you want to look after the here-and-now I still think its important to look forward a few years too, incase things implode in the short term. AP could certainly be your answer for improvement in the immediate term on D.

And yeah. Call me crazy. I do think there are teams, even now, that would be willing to part with a high end draft pick or two for Nylander.