R2, G3: Panthers vs. Maple Leafs - May 7th, 6:30pm - SN, Fan 590

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/mostlyleafies/status/1655368972269764609

You know I like Nylander as much as the next person, but I was pretty blown away to read that he doesn't have a single 5-on-5 goal in this year and last years playoff runs. Not sure anyone in the "core" should really escape criticism, even if some deserve it more than others (except maybe Rielly).

 

[ZBBM]

If they can't make a series out of things, changes are inevitable, but I doubt they'll be as extreme as some are suggesting/screaming for.

-Keefe might be gone, but, at the very least, he'll be on a short leash. A new voice in the room might be the biggest change the team needs, though.
-Dubas coming back is probably more on him than on the team, to be honest.
-In terms of the core 4 upfront, there's no realistic trades involving Matthews or Marner that improve the team - we're talking about two guys who are among the top 5 at their respective positions. Moving them is a downgrade, period.
-Nylander has probably been the team's best player in this series - and has been productive in the playoffs the last few springs. He's the easiest to move, but if we're talking about building a team built for success in the playoffs, you don't move your best playoff performer.
-Tavares is probably most deserving of being moved, but, with a full NMC, he's not likely going anywhere.
-Of the 10 pending UFAs, the only ones that should be offered an opportunity to come back are Acciari, Schenn, and O'Reilly. Maybe Gustafsson, depending on some other moves, but the rest can go. Only 7 forwards currently on the roster are under contract for next season. That alone will change the complexion of the team quite dramatically.
-It might be time to consider moving Lilegren. He's a good young D, but his struggles with an effective forecheck really limit his effectiveness when it's crunch time.
-If Murray can be dumped without giving up assets, you have to do it to clear up some cap space. Same with Muzzin, to try to avoid needing to go into LTIR space.

I don't agree about Liljegren.  He needs to play in these type of games, not get traded because he couldn't handle it the first few times.  They can't waste him like they just wasted Sandin.

I do agree about Tavares.  He's a very good player but not at the salary.  I think they need a fireball for a captain, and John unfortunately is the wrong kind of guy for the team they've got.  The GM needs to go to him after this debacle and tell him the Leafs needs to move on. he had his shot at his childhood dream and it didn't work out.  That will be hardest kind of conversation a GM can have with a respected player.  I highly doubt Dubas is capable of having it.

 

[ZBBM]

https://twitter.com/mostlyleafies/status/1655368972269764609

You know I like Nylander as much as the next person, but I was pretty blown away to read that he doesn't have a single 5-on-5 goal in this year and last years playoff runs. Not sure anyone in the "core" should really escape criticism, even if some deserve it more than others (except maybe Rielly).

Rielly is exempt.  He's more than done his job, including defensively.

 

[L K]

Given how Kampf played last night I'm really not opposed to Acciari-Kampf-Kerfoot/Jarnkrok being our "shut down" line.

Matthews-Nylander-Bunting
Marner-Tavares-OReilly with JT on the wing and balance faceoffs by matchup

4th line I don't care about.  They should play like 3 total minutes.  I like Lafferty but he can just take extra shifts with Matthews periodically.

Go 11-7 again with Kerfoot/Lafferty/Jarnkrok just being for the extra ice time to Matthews/Nylander/Marner whoever is playing better.

Lose because your stars couldn't perform. 

 

[bustaheims]

I don't agree about Liljegren.  He needs to play in these type of games, not get traded because he couldn't handle it the first few times.  They can't waste him like they just wasted Sandin.

I'm not sure the team has time to wait for Liljegren to develop the ability to play in these types of games, and I don't know how many more opportunities he's going to get. They already don't fully trust him against a heavy forecheck, and, unless he grows there quickly, it's going to be an area opposing teams key-in on and exploit going forward. I'm not suggesting the team absolutely needs to trade him, but, by no means should be he considered untouchable.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Given how Kampf played last night I'm really not opposed to Acciari-Kampf-Kerfoot/Jarnkrok being our "shut down" line.

Matthews-Nylander-Bunting
Marner-Tavares-OReilly with JT on the wing and balance faceoffs by matchup

4th line I don't care about.  They should play like 3 total minutes.  I like Lafferty but he can just take extra shifts with Matthews periodically.

Go 11-7 again with Kerfoot/Lafferty/Jarnkrok just being for the extra ice time to Matthews/Nylander/Marner whoever is playing better.

Lose because your stars couldn't perform. 

Tavares-Matthews-Marner
Bunting-ROR-Nylander
Jarnkrok-Kampf-Acciari
Kerfoot-Lafferty

Let's see what we're spending $33.5mil on.

 

[ZBBM]

Given how Kampf played last night I'm really not opposed to Acciari-Kampf-Kerfoot/Jarnkrok being our "shut down" line.

Matthews-Nylander-Bunting
Marner-Tavares-OReilly with JT on the wing and balance faceoffs by matchup

4th line I don't care about.  They should play like 3 total minutes.  I like Lafferty but he can just take extra shifts with Matthews periodically.

Go 11-7 again with Kerfoot/Lafferty/Jarnkrok just being for the extra ice time to Matthews/Nylander/Marner whoever is playing better.

Lose because your stars couldn't perform. 

Tavares-Matthews-Marner
Bunting-ROR-Nylander
Jarnkrok-Kampf-Acciari
Kerfoot-Lafferty

Let's see what we're spending $33.5mil on.

So far, bupkis in terms of GAB (Goals Against Bob).

 

[Peter D.]

This may be heresy, but after cooling off a bit I wonder about blowing up the core entirely and changing the playstyle.  This group has been a helluva lot of fun to watch during the season, and there is a lot more time spent watching that than the playoffs.

From a purely odds-based perspective the chances of winning the Cup are so low, for any team.

So from an overall-amount-of-fun perspective, I'm tempted to let this group get one last chance together next year ... with a new coach.

I'd be all for blowing it up.  I'm not attached to this team whatsoever in its current construction, and I'm longing for a team that I can passionately latch onto again in the same way I did with the Gilmour/Clark/Burns and Sundin/CuJo/Quinn teams.  For me, it'd start with naming Rielly captain.

But man, what a difficult thing it'd be regarding the core:

-- Matthews - I've made no bones that I've never been a huge fan of him.  Respect the talent, obviously, and he'll be the greatest Leaf of all time if he stays long term.  But he ain't Sundin or Gilmour to me.  That aside, he's a unicorn player.  We waited practically our entire franchise history to draft a player like him, and who knows if and when we'd ever draft another one like him in our lifetimes.  Unless he gives indication this summer he's not looking to re-sign long-term here, which I suppose we'll get a better sense of from July 1st to training camp, I don't think there's any way they can move on from him.

-- Marner - May be an unpopular opinion, but to me he is the most talented Leaf currently, and also in the franchise's all time history.  The hometown aspect resonates with me too (won't for others, but I have a soft spot for it).  Don't think he'd be "the guy" if somehow he became it with Matthews moving on, but he's another talent that'd be super hard to replace in trade and/or through draft.

-- Nylander - The most logical choice to move.  Third fiddle, and the best valued contract of the three, in my opinion.  The return wouldn't be as great, obviously, but the loss wouldn't be as big either.  May be the right move to make to shake things up with the core.

-- Tavares - Big ticket free agent.  Captain.  Hometown kid.  No-movement cause.  A no go.  That's not even factoring in his age and contract. 

If Dubas is given extra rope and sticks around, he either doubles/triples down with the current core that his Leaf GM career in Toronto is going to live or die by, or he realizes something needs to be done and shakes it up.  There's only so much lipstick on the pig he can put on before realizing it's the same ugly thing that just doesn't do it for you.

 

[Bender]

If they can't make a series out of things, changes are inevitable, but I doubt they'll be as extreme as some are suggesting/screaming for.

-Keefe might be gone, but, at the very least, he'll be on a short leash. A new voice in the room might be the biggest change the team needs, though.
-Dubas coming back is probably more on him than on the team, to be honest.
-In terms of the core 4 upfront, there's no realistic trades involving Matthews or Marner that improve the team - we're talking about two guys who are among the top 5 at their respective positions. Moving them is a downgrade, period.
-Nylander has probably been the team's best player in this series - and has been productive in the playoffs the last few springs. He's the easiest to move, but if we're talking about building a team built for success in the playoffs, you don't move your best playoff performer.
-Tavares is probably most deserving of being moved, but, with a full NMC, he's not likely going anywhere.
-Of the 10 pending UFAs, the only ones that should be offered an opportunity to come back are Acciari, Schenn, and O'Reilly. Maybe Gustafsson, depending on some other moves, but the rest can go. Only 7 forwards currently on the roster are under contract for next season. That alone will change the complexion of the team quite dramatically.
-It might be time to consider moving Lilegren. He's a good young D, but his struggles with an effective forecheck really limit his effectiveness when it's crunch time.
-If Murray can be dumped without giving up assets, you have to do it to clear up some cap space. Same with Muzzin, to try to avoid needing to go into LTIR space.

You're essentially saying the core is going to get run back, which I think has no chance of happening.

 

[Bender]

This may be heresy, but after cooling off a bit I wonder about blowing up the core entirely and changing the playstyle.  This group has been a helluva lot of fun to watch during the season, and there is a lot more time spent watching that than the playoffs.

From a purely odds-based perspective the chances of winning the Cup are so low, for any team.

So from an overall-amount-of-fun perspective, I'm tempted to let this group get one last chance together next year ... with a new coach.

I'd be all for blowing it up.  I'm not attached to this team whatsoever in its current construction, and I'm longing for a team that I can passionately latch onto again in the same way I did with the Gilmour/Clark/Burns and Sundin/CuJo/Quinn teams.  For me, it'd start with naming Rielly captain.

But man, what a difficult thing it'd be regarding the core:

-- Matthews - I've made no bones that I've never been a huge fan of him.  Respect the talent, obviously, and he'll be the greatest Leaf of all time if he stays long term.  But he ain't Sundin or Gilmour to me.  That aside, he's a unicorn player.  We waited practically our entire franchise history to draft a player like him, and who knows if and when we'd ever draft another one like him in our lifetimes.  Unless he gives indication this summer he's not looking to re-sign long-term here, which I suppose we'll get a better sense of from July 1st to training camp, I don't think there's any way they can move on from him.

-- Marner - May be an unpopular opinion, but to me he is the most talented Leaf currently, and also in the franchise's all time history.  The hometown aspect resonates with me too (won't for others, but I have a soft spot for it).  Don't think he'd be "the guy" if somehow he became it with Matthews moving on, but he's another talent that'd be super hard to replace in trade and/or through draft.

-- Nylander - The most logical choice to move.  Third fiddle, and the best valued contract of the three, in my opinion.  The return wouldn't be as great, obviously, but the loss wouldn't be as big either.  May be the right move to make to shake things up with the core.

-- Tavares - Big ticket free agent.  Captain.  Hometown kid.  No-movement cause.  A no go.  That's not even factoring in his age and contract. 

If Dubas is given extra rope and sticks around, he either doubles/triples down with the current core that his Leaf GM career in Toronto is going to live or die by, or he realizes something needs to be done and shakes it up.  There's only so much lipstick on the pig he can put on before realizing it's the same ugly thing that just doesn't do it for you.

I keep Matthews and that's basically it. If he doesn't want to re-sign then he goes in a sign and trade somewhere. If he does want to re-sign I say we keep him as long as possible. The team has to retool at minimum and they definitely will have to trade part of the core.

Would anyone be against in retaining a portion of Tavares' salary and dump a 1st to get out of it? I don't think it's that unreasonable to send him to a team that needs to hit the cap floor and could use a marquee player to fill the stands.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Would anyone be against in retaining a portion of Tavares' salary and dump a 1st to get out of it? I don't think it's that unreasonable to send him to a team that needs to hit the cap floor and could use a marquee player to fill the stands.

Absolutely not giving up a 1st and cap space. With Muzz on LTIR the Leafs have 14M in space with a 17 man roster. They could bring back ROR and Acciari for 5M. Sammy maybe at 4 if they want these guys back. Leaves them 5M to do whatever. Priority is to find out what Matthews and Nylander want to do. Try to sign them if they're in the plans or move on. It'll be interesting.

Jarnkrok Matthews Nylander
Knies Tavares Marner
Robertson x MacMann
Lafferty  x  x

McCabe Brodie
Rielly Liljegren
Gio Timmins

Murray
Woll

 

[bustaheims]

Would anyone be against in retaining a portion of Tavares' salary and dump a 1st to get out of it? I don't think it's that unreasonable to send him to a team that needs to hit the cap floor and could use a marquee player to fill the stands.

Very much against, yes. He?s still a 30th goal, near point a game player. You?re not giving that away with a high value draft pick. That?s just madness brought on by anger.

 

[rdowdall]

Would anyone be against in retaining a portion of Tavares' salary and dump a 1st to get out of it? I don't think it's that unreasonable to send him to a team that needs to hit the cap floor and could use a marquee player to fill the stands.

Very much against, yes. He?s still a 30th goal, near point a game player. You?re not giving that away with a high value draft pick. That?s just madness brought on by anger.

Maybe just start with pulling the C off of him and giving it to someone else similar to what San Jose did to Thornton back in the day.  If you really want to move Tavares, there would be a market for him, just probably wouldn't be what you think it was.

 

[cw]

This may be heresy, but after cooling off a bit I wonder about blowing up the core entirely and changing the playstyle.  This group has been a helluva lot of fun to watch during the season, and there is a lot more time spent watching that than the playoffs.

From a purely odds-based perspective the chances of winning the Cup are so low, for any team.

So from an overall-amount-of-fun perspective, I'm tempted to let this group get one last chance together next year ... with a new coach.

They had a 4th best record in the regular season.
The obvious "how well are they built for the playoffs?" question is one we'll debate for some time.
But on the surface, they have a bunch of talent worthy of a retool, maybe a coaching change and another shot next year.

After next year, Matthews and Nylander may be gone as UFAs. Tavares will be 2 years older by the spring of 2025. Marner will be a UFA in 2025 summer. 2025 playoff run might be dicey to have much expectation.

A problem they'll have resigning Matthews and Nylander is the cupboard is pretty bare. They will rightfully question their longer term chances of winning a Cup.

A first decision will be on Matthews and Nylander. If they're not going to re-sign (particularly Matthews), maybe you blow it up. Maybe you do a sign and trade like Calgary did with Tkachuk. Those decisions are so seismic, you would have to plan for various scenarios. It is hard to get very far in your planning without knowing those decisions.

Maybe if the writing is on the wall, Dubas jumps ship for greener pastures.

In the interim, in rough theory, they have about a 1.96% chance of winning this series.
Go Leafs Go!!

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Would anyone be against in retaining a portion of Tavares' salary and dump a 1st to get out of it? I don't think it's that unreasonable to send him to a team that needs to hit the cap floor and could use a marquee player to fill the stands.

Very much against, yes. He?s still a 30th goal, near point a game player. You?re not giving that away with a high value draft pick. That?s just madness brought on by anger.

A plan to move him permanently to wing feels pretty likely, especially since Keefe's comments about that after the deadline. Bring ROR back, bring in a more typical (i.e. cost effective) 3C, and keep Tavares at LW. That'd at least represent a fairly drastic change to what our teams looked like the past few years.

 

[L K]

Yeah, we aren't getting out from Tavares' deal UNLESS it's in the final year of his deal, the team completely implodes and we are going hard rebuild.  His last year at 50% retention is still going to be a good player that should net some return.  Short of that he isn't getting traded and with the little draft capital we have, trading away assets to make the team worse doesn't make us better in the short term or long term. 

Tavares only became a problem because of the flat cap but at this point it's not worth it to unload him.

 

[azzurri63]

Keefe not worried about cores struggles and encourages them to keep to their game. This team my God what an absolute sh*t show from top to bottom.

 

[Bender]

Would anyone be against in retaining a portion of Tavares' salary and dump a 1st to get out of it? I don't think it's that unreasonable to send him to a team that needs to hit the cap floor and could use a marquee player to fill the stands.

Very much against, yes. He?s still a 30th goal, near point a game player. You?re not giving that away with a high value draft pick. That?s just madness brought on by anger.

It really isn't, especially considering he's probably the least valuable amongst the core four. Do we get rid of Nylander instead? I'm open to suggestions, but running back the core is just insane at this point.

 

[ZBBM]

Keefe not worried about cores struggles and encourages them to keep to their game. This team my God what an absolute sh*t show from top to bottom.

I'm not a Keefe fan but realistically what choice does he have?  This is the team his boss built.  The besty forwards have not been good at all this series.  I'd ride them for all it's worth G4 and hope for the best.  There is no other option.

 

[ZBBM]

Would anyone be against in retaining a portion of Tavares' salary and dump a 1st to get out of it? I don't think it's that unreasonable to send him to a team that needs to hit the cap floor and could use a marquee player to fill the stands.

Very much against, yes. He?s still a 30th goal, near point a game player. You?re not giving that away with a high value draft pick. That?s just madness brought on by anger.

It really isn't, especially considering he's probably the least valuable amongst the core four. Do we get rid of Nylander instead? I'm open to suggestions, but running back the core is just insane at this point.

It didn't look insane after the TB series.  Funny how fast the turtle can flip back shell-down.