Ryan O'Reilly

[Redleaf]

I think it was Healy that suggested the Leafs sign him to an offer sheet, and front load it so that Colorado can't match. Make sense? A 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd ,plus more cash.

It just makes no sense to do this.  I've heard this a few times and don't get why people think they won't match, and if they didn't, why this is a wise approach.  "oh yeah just offer sheet the guy, that will make it all happen, no problem."

If you do, you lose the picks, which in the case of the Leafs right now is still very risky, then you get a player who is colossally overpaid and all the fun things that can happen with that. 

If they want this guy, just trade for him and make it happen that way. Sign him to a reasonable contract without stupid front loaded silliness and don't risk throwing picks you don't know what they will be.

And no, not for Kadri.  Bozak.. given what he's doing for this team right now I'm siding with those who think adding him to a deal is not a wise idea.  He's so good on faceoffs right now, it's ridiculous. 

Gardiner + Kulemin for ROR and a lesser prospect or pick.

I agree that the offer sheet route isn't ideal, but its the only way to add a talent like O'Reilly without losing any valuable pieces like Kadri or Gardiner.

Edit: As far as parting with the draft picks, unless the unimaginable happens again this year and the Leafs fall to the bottom of the standings, those picks are like scratch tickets anyways. Are the Avalanche going to get a player as good as Kadri or Gardiner with those picks? Chances are pretty slim I would think. I would guess that adding a player like O'Reilly to the team, along with all the players coming off the IR soon, should prevent the team from finishing anywhere near the basement this year. That 1st rounder shouldnt be a top 5 or even top 10 pick IMO.

 

[nutman]

I'm guessing if we deal for him, it will be from our position of strength, aka defense. I could see us putting together a package of defensemen and a pick, and without Gardner or Reiley involved.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I think it was Healy that suggested the Leafs sign him to an offer sheet, and front load it so that Colorado can't match. Make sense? A 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd ,plus more cash.

It just makes no sense to do this.  I've heard this a few times and don't get why people think they won't match, and if they didn't, why this is a wise approach.  "oh yeah just offer sheet the guy, that will make it all happen, no problem."

If you do, you lose the picks, which in the case of the Leafs right now is still very risky, then you get a player who is colossally overpaid and all the fun things that can happen with that. 

If they want this guy, just trade for him and make it happen that way. Sign him to a reasonable contract without stupid front loaded silliness and don't risk throwing picks you don't know what they will be.

And no, not for Kadri.  Bozak.. given what he's doing for this team right now I'm siding with those who think adding him to a deal is not a wise idea.  He's so good on faceoffs right now, it's ridiculous. 

Gardiner + Kulemin for ROR and a lesser prospect or pick.

I agree that the offer sheet route isn't ideal, but its the only way to add a talent like O'Reilly without losing any valuable pieces like Kadri or Gardiner.

Edit: As far as parting with the draft picks, unless the unimaginable happens again this year and the Leafs fall to the bottom of the standings, those picks are like scratch tickets anyways. Are the Avalanche going to get a player as good as Kadri or Gardiner with those picks? Chances are pretty slim I would think. I would guess that adding a player like O'Reilly to the team, along with all the players coming off the IR soon, should prevent the team from finishing anywhere near the basement this year. That 1st rounder shouldnt be a top 5 or even top 10 pick IMO.

Hmmm sounds an awful lot like Burke when he said that the two 1st rounders given up for Kessel wouldn't amount to much because the team was a playoff team....We know how those scratch tickets turned out.

 

[Redleaf]

I think it was Healy that suggested the Leafs sign him to an offer sheet, and front load it so that Colorado can't match. Make sense? A 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd ,plus more cash.

It just makes no sense to do this.  I've heard this a few times and don't get why people think they won't match, and if they didn't, why this is a wise approach.  "oh yeah just offer sheet the guy, that will make it all happen, no problem."

If you do, you lose the picks, which in the case of the Leafs right now is still very risky, then you get a player who is colossally overpaid and all the fun things that can happen with that. 

If they want this guy, just trade for him and make it happen that way. Sign him to a reasonable contract without stupid front loaded silliness and don't risk throwing picks you don't know what they will be.

And no, not for Kadri.  Bozak.. given what he's doing for this team right now I'm siding with those who think adding him to a deal is not a wise idea.  He's so good on faceoffs right now, it's ridiculous. 

Gardiner + Kulemin for ROR and a lesser prospect or pick.

I agree that the offer sheet route isn't ideal, but its the only way to add a talent like O'Reilly without losing any valuable pieces like Kadri or Gardiner.

Edit: As far as parting with the draft picks, unless the unimaginable happens again this year and the Leafs fall to the bottom of the standings, those picks are like scratch tickets anyways. Are the Avalanche going to get a player as good as Kadri or Gardiner with those picks? Chances are pretty slim I would think. I would guess that adding a player like O'Reilly to the team, along with all the players coming off the IR soon, should prevent the team from finishing anywhere near the basement this year. That 1st rounder shouldnt be a top 5 or even top 10 pick IMO.

Hmmm sounds an awful lot like Burke when he said that the two 1st rounders given up for Kessel wouldn't amount to much because the team was a playoff team....We know how those scratch tickets turned out.

I knew someone would say something like this.

Thing is, the GM has to take calculated risks all the time if he wants to improve the club and eventually challenge for the cup. That risk may be to hold on to the picks or trade them. Either decision is a risk.

It's the GMs job to weigh all the options and to make the right choice.

 

[Zee]

I think it was Healy that suggested the Leafs sign him to an offer sheet, and front load it so that Colorado can't match. Make sense? A 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd ,plus more cash.

It just makes no sense to do this.  I've heard this a few times and don't get why people think they won't match, and if they didn't, why this is a wise approach.  "oh yeah just offer sheet the guy, that will make it all happen, no problem."

If you do, you lose the picks, which in the case of the Leafs right now is still very risky, then you get a player who is colossally overpaid and all the fun things that can happen with that. 

If they want this guy, just trade for him and make it happen that way. Sign him to a reasonable contract without stupid front loaded silliness and don't risk throwing picks you don't know what they will be.

And no, not for Kadri.  Bozak.. given what he's doing for this team right now I'm siding with those who think adding him to a deal is not a wise idea.  He's so good on faceoffs right now, it's ridiculous. 

Gardiner + Kulemin for ROR and a lesser prospect or pick.

I agree that the offer sheet route isn't ideal, but its the only way to add a talent like O'Reilly without losing any valuable pieces like Kadri or Gardiner.

Edit: As far as parting with the draft picks, unless the unimaginable happens again this year and the Leafs fall to the bottom of the standings, those picks are like scratch tickets anyways. Are the Avalanche going to get a player as good as Kadri or Gardiner with those picks? Chances are pretty slim I would think. I would guess that adding a player like O'Reilly to the team, along with all the players coming off the IR soon, should prevent the team from finishing anywhere near the basement this year. That 1st rounder shouldnt be a top 5 or even top 10 pick IMO.

Hmmm sounds an awful lot like Burke when he said that the two 1st rounders given up for Kessel wouldn't amount to much because the team was a playoff team....We know how those scratch tickets turned out.

I knew someone would say something like this.

Thing is, the GM has to take calculated risks all the time if he wants to improve the club and eventually challenge for the cup. That risk may be to hold on to the picks or trade them. Either decision is a risk.

It's the GMs job to weigh all the options and to make the right choice.

I'd really like it if our GM collected other team's first round picks instead of giving up ours.  You never know what the picks will turn out to be, but more often than not you get NHL players in the first round, so the more picks you can acquire the better.  If they're top 15 or better, all the more chance of landing a good NHL prospect.

 

[Corn Flake]

I agree that the offer sheet route isn't ideal, but its the only way to add a talent like O'Reilly without losing any valuable pieces like Kadri or Gardiner.

Edit: As far as parting with the draft picks, unless the unimaginable happens again this year and the Leafs fall to the bottom of the standings, those picks are like scratch tickets anyways. Are the Avalanche going to get a player as good as Kadri or Gardiner with those picks? Chances are pretty slim I would think. I would guess that adding a player like O'Reilly to the team, along with all the players coming off the IR soon, should prevent the team from finishing anywhere near the basement this year. That 1st rounder shouldnt be a top 5 or even top 10 pick IMO.

Yes.  Probably.  Most likely.  Quite likely, in fact.  But there's always that chance.

Have to look at the worst case scenario from the other perspective.... Gardiner, or one of McKinnon, Jones or Droun, plus whatever else you give up in picks?  Is that something you are willing to take the risk on giving up?  The old once bitten, twice shy adage comes to mind.  The Leafs have just had so much bad luck when it comes to mortgaging their first round picks, it scares me to no end when we talk about doing this. 

Calculated risk? Yeah, but the history in this particular scenario is so very dangrous. 

Yeah this team is probably not going back to the bottom 5 this year, but we are still relying on Reimer/Scrivens to take us away from there.  One setback for Reimer plus Scrivens not able to play at the level he has this past week consistently and we are right back down there.

Scary.

 

[rdowdall]

Any new GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs should have a rule when they take over:

No trading of 1st round picks within the first 3 years of the start of their job.

 

[Redleaf]

Any new GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs should have a rule when they take over:

No trading of 1st round picks within the first 3 years of the start of their job.

Just because the Kessel deal wasn't a good one for the Leafs, it doesn't mean a GM will lose every time he trades away a 1st. A GM can't be gun shy because the last GM made a bad trade. I'm sure there are plenty examples out there of teams trading way their first round for a player that is way better than the player the other team picked up in the draft. Again, if the deal is calculated properly and with a little luck, the team trading away the pick ends up with the better player. Its an old cliche, but you don't get reward without risk.

 

[bustaheims]

Just because the Kessel deal wasn't a good one for the Leafs, it doesn't mean a GM will lose every time he trades away a 1st. A GM can't be gun shy because the last GM made a bad trade. I'm sure there are plenty examples out there of teams trading way their first round for a player that is way better than the player the other team picked up in the draft. Again, if the deal is calculated properly and with a little luck, the team trading away the pick ends up with the better player. Its an old cliche, but you don't get reward without risk.

Until the team is on the verge of becoming a legit Cup contender, not trading away 1st round picks is a sound policy, no matter how much the risk may be mitigated. The more quality prospects there in the system, the more flexibility the team will have when they actually need it.

 

[Corn Flake]

Any new GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs should have a rule when they take over:

No trading of 1st round picks within the first 3 years of the start of their job.

Just because the Kessel deal wasn't a good one for the Leafs, it doesn't mean a GM will lose every time he trades away a 1st. A GM can't be gun shy because the last GM made a bad trade. I'm sure there are plenty examples out there of teams trading way their first round for a player that is way better than the player the other team picked up in the draft. Again, if the deal is calculated properly and with a little luck, the team trading away the pick ends up with the better player. Its an old cliche, but you don't get reward without risk.

Is there a trade in the last 30 years where we can say that the Leafs dealt their 1st round pick and it didn't come back to haunt them?

The only one I can think of is in the Brian Leetch deal. 

 

[Redleaf]

Just because the Kessel deal wasn't a good one for the Leafs, it doesn't mean a GM will lose every time he trades away a 1st. A GM can't be gun shy because the last GM made a bad trade. I'm sure there are plenty examples out there of teams trading way their first round for a player that is way better than the player the other team picked up in the draft. Again, if the deal is calculated properly and with a little luck, the team trading away the pick ends up with the better player. Its an old cliche, but you don't get reward without risk.

Until the team is on the verge of becoming a legit Cup contender, not trading away 1st round picks is a sound policy, no matter how much the risk may be mitigated. The more quality prospects there in the system, the more flexibility the team will have when they actually need it.

That's true, but you can't always pass on a player that is age appropriate to the club you are building on a chance that a draft pick will help out your team down the road either. The leafs now have some picks and prospects in the cupboard. They can afford to trade away some picks for one draft year to bring in a quality, NHL ready player, as long as they continue to keep the majority of their pics moving forward. Remember, a GM can always trade away players that don't fit into their plans for more picks anytime they choose too.

 

[Kin]

Is there a trade in the last 30 years where we can say that the Leafs dealt their 1st round pick and it didn't come back to haunt them?

The only one I can think of is in the Brian Leetch deal.

I think the pick in the Nolan deal became Mark Stuart eventually but that was such a good draft year that holding onto the pick was the smart move.

 

[Redleaf]

Any new GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs should have a rule when they take over:

No trading of 1st round picks within the first 3 years of the start of their job.

Just because the Kessel deal wasn't a good one for the Leafs, it doesn't mean a GM will lose every time he trades away a 1st. A GM can't be gun shy because the last GM made a bad trade. I'm sure there are plenty examples out there of teams trading way their first round for a player that is way better than the player the other team picked up in the draft. Again, if the deal is calculated properly and with a little luck, the team trading away the pick ends up with the better player. Its an old cliche, but you don't get reward without risk.

Is there a trade in the last 30 years where we can say that the Leafs dealt their 1st round pick and it didn't come back to haunt them?

The only one I can think of is in the Brian Leetch deal.

I didn't necessarily mean the Leafs. Well managed teams, unlike the Leafs over the past 30 years, have won trades while giving up 1st rounders. I would have to do some research to find them, but there is little doubt they are out there.

 

[Kin]

I didn't necessarily mean the Leafs. Well managed teams, unlike the Leafs over the past 30 years, have won trades while giving up 1st rounders. I would have to do some research to find them, but there is little doubt they are out there.

I think what you'd typically find in terms of teams "winning" trades where they dealt first round picks are teams near the back of the draft dealing low first rounders for established veterans who can fill a specific role.

What we're talking about here is a different situation. O'Reilly's value is hardly a given and he wants a contract that, in most people's eyes, he hasn't really earned. As much as you want to talk about the "risk" involved in a first round pick there's also risk in trading for a talented young player who might have an inflated sense of his own worth and wants to be paid accordingly.

 

[Corn Flake]

Is there a trade in the last 30 years where we can say that the Leafs dealt their 1st round pick and it didn't come back to haunt them?

The only one I can think of is in the Brian Leetch deal.

I think the pick in the Nolan deal became Mark Stuart eventually but that was such a good draft year that holding onto the pick was the smart move.

03 was definitely the wrong year to not have a 1st.

 

[Redleaf]

I didn't necessarily mean the Leafs. Well managed teams, unlike the Leafs over the past 30 years, have won trades while giving up 1st rounders. I would have to do some research to find them, but there is little doubt they are out there.

I think what you'd typically find in terms of teams "winning" trades where they dealt first round picks are teams near the back of the draft dealing low first rounders for established veterans who can fill a specific role.

What we're talking about here is a different situation. O'Reilly's value is hardly a given and he wants a contract that, in most people's eyes, he hasn't really earned. As much as you want to talk about the "risk" involved in a first round pick there's also risk in trading for a talented young player who might have an inflated sense of his own worth and wants to be paid accordingly.

Well, deciding on whether or not O'Reilly is the guy you make that trade for isn't really our call. My point was whether or not a GM should pass on a player just because the other team is demanding our 1st rounder in exchange.

 

[Corn Flake]

No doubt other teams have done it with plenty of success.  The Leafs haven't been gambling those picks at the right time, almost ever. 

Philli used to throw 1sts around like candy yet they always managed to work things out and usually recover the pick at some point. 

 

[Redleaf]

No doubt other teams have done it with plenty of success.  The Leafs haven't been gambling those picks at the right time, almost ever. 

Philli used to throw 1sts around like candy yet they always managed to work things out and usually recover the pick at some point.

Yep. It can/should be done for the right player at the right time. (Although sometimes you only have a short window when the player you want is available) I don't know how much stock they put into O'Reilly, but I guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

[Kin]

Well, deciding on whether or not O'Reilly is the guy you make that trade for isn't really our call. My point was whether or not a GM should pass on a player just because the other team is demanding our 1st rounder in exchange.

But I don't think the takeaway from the Kessel deal and why it was referenced here was as an example of why you should never, ever trade away a first round pick but rather that if you engage in trading away a first round pick without having a particularly good idea of what your team is or what you're getting then you're essentially playing poker blindfolded, at which point the concept of a "good risk" becomes pretty hard to judge.

 

[bustaheims]

That's true, but you can't always pass on a player that is age appropriate to the club you are building on a chance that a draft pick will help out your team down the road either. The leafs now have some picks and prospects in the cupboard. They can afford to trade away some picks for one draft year to bring in a quality, NHL ready player, as long as they continue to keep the majority of their pics moving forward. Remember, a GM can always trade away players that don't fit into their plans for more picks anytime they choose too.

But, that's starting down a slippery slope. Once you open that door, it can be hard to justify closing it. It sets up expectations for the future of the team and other moves would need to be made to make sure that the years before someone like O'Reilly would hit UFA status and even bigger money than he's already asking for aren't wasted. I think that's one of the lessons that's often overlooked when it comes to the Kessel deal. Just because the Leafs have some prospects in the cupboards doesn't mean that don't need more. In fact, it's quite the opposite - they always need more. There's no sense in starting move out picks and prospects now, because, realistically, it'll only build the team to the point where they'd need to be able to move those picks and prospects to get to over the hump and become a true Cup contender.