So the debate begins: Matthews vs. Laine

[Kin]

They don't, this is silly.

I'm sorry I really don't see why you're dismissing this so out of hand. Do you think the scouts talking to TSN are dumb? Lying? Somehow personally invested in making the Draft a more exciting broadcast? 

 

[herman]

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/4/29/11537530/ppp-round-table-shooting-for-the-giant-auston-matthews

This is a good conversation about Matthews and what he brings to the table.

Skill, speed, smarts, and size.

 

[Kin]

Matthews, easily. There's too much potential for there to have been a good amount of recency bias impacting the scouts surveyed by TSN. Matthews has been off for almost 2 months now. Laine's season ended a few days ago.

But "recency bias" could just as easily be interpreted as moe scouts getting the chance to closely watch what Laine's doing and thus them having more information. One of the reasons Laine's season ended a few days ago is because his team won the championship and he was the MVP. 

 

[Tigger]

They don't, this is silly.

I'm sorry I really don't see why you're dismissing this so out of hand. Do you think the scouts talking to TSN are dumb? Lying? Somehow personally invested in making the Draft a more exciting broadcast?

I hate to agree with Button but this is about as no brainer as it gets. Laine would have to be pushing the one spot well before now in a meaningful way to say otherwise, cogently.

 

[herman]

Matthews, easily. There's too much potential for there to have been a good amount of recency bias impacting the scouts surveyed by TSN. Matthews has been off for almost 2 months now. Laine's season ended a few days ago.

This. Laine had a dazzling world juniors.

When you're at the top of the list for so long, people start looking for reasons to knock you down (see Chychrun).

 

[Kin]

When you're at the top of the list for so long, people start looking for reasons to knock you down (see Chychrun).

Sure. Remember all the talk last year about how opinion was divided on Connor McDavid? Or how some scouts liked Bobby Ryan better than Sid Crosby?

 

[Bill_Berg]

I've seen the talk about Laine being considered as the #1 guy this draft. I just don't think there's enough time for him to usurp Matthews. And it's the position that is the insurmountable obstacle for Laine. If they were both centres or both wingers, the debate would rage, but the best that Laine can do is create doubt now, and when in doubt, the default is pick the centre.

 

[rdowdall]

I've seen the talk about Laine being considered as the #1 guy this draft. I just don't think there's enough time for him to usurp Matthews. And it's the position that is the insurmountable obstacle for Laine. If they were both centres or both wingers, the debate would rage, but the best that Laine can do is create doubt now, and when in doubt, the default is pick the centre.

McKeen was saying a couple of months ago that some scouts say that they think Laine may play centre in the NHL.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I've seen the talk about Laine being considered as the #1 guy this draft. I just don't think there's enough time for him to usurp Matthews. And it's the position that is the insurmountable obstacle for Laine. If they were both centres or both wingers, the debate would rage, but the best that Laine can do is create doubt now, and when in doubt, the default is pick the centre.

McKeen was saying a couple of months ago that some scouts say that they think Laine may play centre in the NHL.

Makes me think, but I still don't think that's enough. For sure, if I'm the Leafs, I'm happy I have some time to decide.

 

[dappleganger]

I really wanted the Leafs to get the second pick because I really wanted the Leafs to pick Laine.

With the first pick, you take Matthews. No doubt.

 

[bustaheims]

But "recency bias" could just as easily be interpreted as moe scouts getting the chance to closely watch what Laine's doing and thus them having more information.

It could be, but, it strikes me as being awfully similar to how players jump up or fall down the draft board immediately after the World Juniors, only to frequently end up back in the vicinity of where they were ranked before the tournament by the time the draft rolls around.

 

[Wendel's Fist]

There is no debate. Does anyone here actually think that Shanahan's smile on his face after we won the draft was because we might pick Laine? He would have already been smiling like that when we were guaranteed the #2 pick, if that were the case.

It's nice to see what some scouts are saying but I bet my bottom dollar that if any team in this league had the #1 overall pick in this year's draft, they'd all pick Matthews. Kind of like McDavid over Eichel.

There's nothing to debate about.

 

[Kin]

It could be, but, it strikes me as being awfully similar to how players jump up or fall down the draft board immediately after the World Juniors, only to frequently end up back in the vicinity of where they were ranked before the tournament by the time the draft rolls around.

I guess but because that also happened with Laine this year after how terrific he was at the WJC it's hard not to see this as, at least in part, a measure of momentum. I was sarcastic with Herman about the way some guys get picked apart over the course of a season if they're on top but a lot of times that happens and...it turns out to be kind of right. I mean, Kessel was thought by many to be a #1 guy and over the course of the year some teams decided they liked Staal or Toews or Backstrom more. Mackinnon/Jones was thought to be an easy #1/#2 choice and while Tampa maybe regrets not taking Jones, I bet Florida doesn't.

Again, and I can't stress this enough, ask me to pick today and I'm with you. I pick Matthews. Alls I'm saying is we don't have to. We can watch the World Championships and how they do there. We can see how they look and see what they do at the combine. There is absolutely no downside to maintaining an open mind on the question. 

 

[Kin]

There is no debate. Does anyone here actually think that Shanahan's smile on his face after we won the draft was because we might pick Laine? He would have already been smiling like that when we were guaranteed the #2 pick, if that were the case.

It's nice to see what some scouts are saying but I bet my bottom dollar that if any team in this league had the #1 overall pick in this year's draft, they'd all pick Matthews. Kind of like McDavid over Eichel.

There's nothing to debate about.

How much hockey have you watched either guy play?

 

[Wendel's Fist]

There is no debate. Does anyone here actually think that Shanahan's smile on his face after we won the draft was because we might pick Laine? He would have already been smiling like that when we were guaranteed the #2 pick, if that were the case.

It's nice to see what some scouts are saying but I bet my bottom dollar that if any team in this league had the #1 overall pick in this year's draft, they'd all pick Matthews. Kind of like McDavid over Eichel.

There's nothing to debate about.

How much hockey have you watched either guy play?

Actually probably a bit more than you may have.

Your point?

 

[Kin]

Your point?

That all any of us are going by is what scouts are saying and what scouts seem to be saying is the exact opposite of "there is no debate". I'm happy and not at all defensive to admit I've watched no more of either guy than a few WJC games. 

But then again, you're the one staying up to watch HZ Zurich games, not me. 

 

[Wendel's Fist]

Your point?

That all any of us are going by is what scouts are saying and what scouts seem to be saying is the exact opposite of "there is no debate". I'm happy and not at all defensive to admit I've watched no more of either guy than a few WJC games. 

But then again, you're the one staying up to watch HZ Zurich games, not me.

Yeah, so I'm not seeing the point of the thread when you've said yourself that you'd pick Matthews. Either way, I now remember why this site is so damn boring now.

See you at the next draft or something.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, so I'm not seeing the point of the thread when you've said yourself that you'd pick Matthews.

The point of the thread is that contrary to your statement there is a debate. And it's not a debate among random internet knuckleheads, it's a debate among the people paid by NHL teams to evaluate draft prospects. This debate is going to play out over the next two months.

2 of the 10 scouts said they prefer Laine. That's 20%. I'd say a 20% chance of something turning out is kind of relevant tonight.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Yeah, so I'm not seeing the point of the thread when you've said yourself that you'd pick Matthews.

The point of the thread is that contrary to your statement there is a debate. And it's not a debate among random internet knuckleheads, it's a debate among the people paid by NHL teams to evaluate draft prospects. This debate is going to play out over the next two months.

2 of the 10 scouts said they prefer Laine. That's 20%. I'd say a 20% chance of something turning out is kind of relevant tonight.

Booooring.

 

[herman]

In this case it isn't really Matthews' flaws pushing him down the list, but more like Laine's recent performance that is edging him into the conversation. Certainly worth doing due diligence and not drafting like its a foregone conclusion.

Certainly makes the world championships a lot more interesting now.