Steve Stamkos?

[rdowdall]

It should be noted too that the projected 1st overall pick in the 2017 draft, Nolan Patrick, isn't exactly being billed as an above-average 1st overall pick. And finishing last only gives you a 20% chance at him. If we were playing by the old rules, and/or there was an Eichel/Matthews type player in the draft, then I'd be much more inclined to try to bottom-out again.

No there isn't as much hype around next years draft.  Usually we start to here rumblings about the next draft right around the world juniors.  It's been pretty quite so far.  That usually means that there isn't a clear cut #1, or that the #1 isn't as strong as a Matthews or a Tavares.

 

[Kin]

The odds are still in the favour of the teams that finish with poor records, so if your bad for long enough, then you should get that top pick at some point.  Again there are no guarantees, but you need if you go with a plan that has the highest chance of yielding the best results, then you should at some point yield the best results.

Exactly. And whenever someone says "But what if they're bad for X number of years and still don't pick the player we want" all I can weigh that against is my concern that if they don't do things with patience then in 4 or 5 years the Leafs are right back to where they are now.

I'm way more cautious about the latter than the former.

 

[Bill_Berg]

The odds are still in the favour of the teams that finish with poor records, so if your bad for long enough, then you should get that top pick at some point.  Again there are no guarantees, but you need if you go with a plan that has the highest chance of yielding the best results, then you should at some point yield the best results.

Exactly. And whenever someone says "But what if they're bad for X number of years and still don't pick the player we want" all I can weigh that against is my concern that if they don't do things with patience then in 4 or 5 years the Leafs are right back to where they are now.

I'm way more cautious about the latter than the former.

If you mean a guy at McDavid's level by 'player we want' then hopefully there will be a UFA or trade available in 4-5 years. The worst case scenario is drafting 5 Marners over the next 5 years and then trading them all away for picks holding out hope for the next McDavid.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This is just an aside from the actual discussion, but as someone who has spouted a pretty strong pro-tank message the last few years I find it a little funny that I'm now anti-tank.

Anyway, I don't know how to explain that. I don't think I'm trying to rush the plan or throw patience out the window. I'm not saying we should be trading assets to make a playoff push. I just think that unless the team deliberately takes steps to ensure a weaker roster (like by trading JVR/Kadri/Gardiner or keeping Nylander/Marner/other young talent off the team again) it won't be a bottom-5 group. And I don't see the team taking those steps. But if we don't sign Stamkos and I'm wrong about my expectations for this team in 16/17, I'll certainly be back on the tank train.

I also have to say, I haven't exactly adjusted my expectations for next season yet after the Phaneuf trade. As bad of a contract he had, it does leave a pretty big hole in our blue line next season so things could be pretty bad there.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

The odds are still in the favour of the teams that finish with poor records, so if your bad for long enough, then you should get that top pick at some point.  Again there are no guarantees, but you need if you go with a plan that has the highest chance of yielding the best results, then you should at some point yield the best results.

Exactly. And whenever someone says "But what if they're bad for X number of years and still don't pick the player we want" all I can weigh that against is my concern that if they don't do things with patience then in 4 or 5 years the Leafs are right back to where they are now.

I'm way more cautious about the latter than the former.

I think the Leafs have been pretty good at showing patience to this point. And I think the fans can hang in there with them for quite a while. My concern is this: at the current time the Leafs are in a rebuild/tank/draft and develop stage. They lack any sort of talent and, even with good coaching, are going to hang at the bottom of the league. That's great! But what happens when some of the younger talent starts to filter in. That, combined with great coaching, may pull the Leafs out of the basement before they're ready, and before they have a chance to accumulate what they need in terms of high picks.

For me, this is the difference between choosing to be bad to draft and develop, and not being bad enough just based on an upgrade in talent, hindering the ability to grab a top pick. So, how many years in the basement is enough? And how many are reasonable given the players waiting in the wings?

I would be less concerned about the second scenario if the Leafs could land one of either Stamkos or Matthews this year or, maybe even a better option, Tavares in 2018.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I also have to say, I haven't exactly adjusted my expectations for next season yet after the Phaneuf trade. As bad of a contract he had, it does leave a pretty big hole in our blue line next season so things could be pretty bad there.

I mean we still need to see what they do to fill his and Polak's spot next season, but there seems to be an argument gaining ground that losing Dion might be addition by subtraction.

 

[Kin]

And I think the fans can hang in there with them for quite a while.

I've raised my doubts about this in previous posts so instead I'll just say that it's quite clear that "the fans" are not a monolithic group on this one. 

My concern is this: at the current time the Leafs are in a rebuild/tank/draft and develop stage. They lack any sort of talent and, even with good coaching, are going to hang at the bottom of the league. That's great! But what happens when some of the younger talent starts to filter in. That, combined with great coaching, may pull the Leafs out of the basement before they're ready, and before they have a chance to accumulate what they need in terms of high picks.

That doesn't concern me too much. I like many of the young players Toronto has but I'm pretty confident in saying that I don't think any of them will be that kind of difference maker right out of the box. So long as the Leafs limit the incoming talent to home grown, they probably have at least 3 or 4 years of being terrible.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

The odds are still in the favour of the teams that finish with poor records, so if your bad for long enough, then you should get that top pick at some point.  Again there are no guarantees, but you need if you go with a plan that has the highest chance of yielding the best results, then you should at some point yield the best results.

Exactly. And whenever someone says "But what if they're bad for X number of years and still don't pick the player we want" all I can weigh that against is my concern that if they don't do things with patience then in 4 or 5 years the Leafs are right back to where they are now.

I'm way more cautious about the latter than the former.

If they get Matthews and Stamkos this summer, what do you think their direction should be?

I'm not being facetious here, do you think they still need another year or maybe more or picking at the top of the draft or does that change things for you?

It also then begs the question, is there such a dramatic difference between Matthews+Stamkos and a guy like Laine+Stamkos?

EDIT: Just wanted to add to this that McKenzie recently talked about the fact that although all the scouts he talked to listed Matthews as the top prospect, a lot of them said that there was serious internal debate about Laine being as good or better than Matthews, that's why I ask the question.

 

[Frank E]

This is just an aside from the actual discussion, but as someone who has spouted a pretty strong pro-tank message the last few years I find it a little funny that I'm now anti-tank.

Anyway, I don't know how to explain that. I don't think I'm trying to rush the plan or throw patience out the window. I'm not saying we should be trading assets to make a playoff push. I just think that unless the team deliberately takes steps to ensure a weaker roster (like by trading JVR/Kadri/Gardiner or keeping Nylander/Marner/other young talent off the team again) it won't be a bottom-5 group. And I don't see the team taking those steps. But if we don't sign Stamkos and I'm wrong about my expectations for this team in 16/17, I'll certainly be back on the tank train.

I also have to say, I haven't exactly adjusted my expectations for next season yet after the Phaneuf trade. As bad of a contract he had, it does leave a pretty big hole in our blue line next season so things could be pretty bad there.

I would put myself in the camp that understands that the Leafs need to draft high-end talent.

I think they've done that the past 2 seasons, and will again this season.  I also think they'll do so in 2017.

I don't want them trading away draft picks or prospects for UFA's for a run at the playoffs either.

But...Stamkos isn't a trade acquisition, and is a real boon to the talent level of the team for the next 7 years.  He's one piece of the talent puzzle.  I've put together a roster that I think will still be a bottom 5 roster next season, even with Stamkos.  And in addition to whatever the Leafs have already, they'll also get whatever Kadri and all of the stuff that comes this way from the deadline deals.  And you're right, it's the defense that's going to be the kicker next season now that Phaneuf is gone.  Babcock will be forced to make the new kids responsible as hell with that proposed defense corps, and maybe that's a good thing as well. 

I see Stamkos as an upgrade on re-upping Kadri...you get Stamkos *plus* you get whatever Kadri nets you this summer. 

 

[Frank E]

http://www.tsn.ca/lightning-won-t-trade-stamkos-this-season-1.438299

That's no surprise.

 

[Joe S.]

Good. And I hope he wins the cup in Tampa so he can move on with no regrets.

The downside is that's 2 cups for the freaking lightning.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

But man, we haven't even had one season with a bottom three finish and already people are saying it's too many. The whole point of patience is that it's less fun than getting what you want right away.

Not saying it's right, but in the preceding 5 full seasons they have finished 2nd last, 9th last, 5th last, 8th last, 4th last.

I don't know if there is a cut off, arbitrary or not, between 3rd last and 4th last that theoretically makes a season easier to handle, but it's not like it's been years of good finishes and this is the first season the fanbase has had to suffer through.

So I can understand if there are fans who feel that way.

 

[bustaheims]

Not saying it's right, but in the preceding 5 full seasons they have finished 2nd last, 9th last, 5th last, 8th last, 4th last.

I don't know if there is a cut off, arbitrary or not, between 3rd last and 4th last that theoretically makes a season easier to handle, but it's not like it's been years of good finishes and this is the first season the fanbase has had to suffer through.

So I can understand if there are fans who feel that way.

If they had the prospects that came from all of those bottom 10 finishes, they'd likely be closer to the point where adding Stamkos wouldn't feel like an attempt to skip a step in the process. But, really, this is year one of the concerted effort to bottom out and rebuild. The past seasons of ineptitude where completed as attempts to rebuild on the fly and be competitive, and also included a poor draft philosophy. As a result, the Leafs didn't build the kind of prospect base they should have in that time.

I understand that some fans may be tired of losing, but not the idea that the team is at the point where they should be starting to turn things around.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I understand that some fans may be tired of losing, but not the idea that the team is at the point where they should be starting to turn things around.

These are two completely different things to me. I honestly haven't seen a single person here take the stance that the Leafs should improve because the fans are impatient and tired of seeing the team lose.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Not saying it's right, but in the preceding 5 full seasons they have finished 2nd last, 9th last, 5th last, 8th last, 4th last.

I don't know if there is a cut off, arbitrary or not, between 3rd last and 4th last that theoretically makes a season easier to handle, but it's not like it's been years of good finishes and this is the first season the fanbase has had to suffer through.

So I can understand if there are fans who feel that way.

If they had the prospects that came from all of those bottom 10 finishes, they'd likely be closer to the point where adding Stamkos wouldn't feel like an attempt to skip a step in the process. But, really, this is year one of the concerted effort to bottom out and rebuild. The past seasons of ineptitude where completed as attempts to rebuild on the fly and be competitive, and also included a poor draft philosophy. As a result, the Leafs didn't build the kind of prospect base they should have in that time.

I understand that some fans may be tired of losing, but not the idea that the team is at the point where they should be starting to turn things around.

I was responding to the comment that it hasn't even been one year of bottom 3 finishes and fans are already getting antsy about it, but it hasn't been just one season.  Regardless of how the team was managed, that doesn't really change things for a fan getting tired of being at the bottom of the standings.  The end result is the same.

Again, I am fine with how things are going, but I can appreciate others who might not as this season doesn't exist independently of the others.  It's been a lot of low finishes lately.

 

[Frank E]

I understand that some fans may be tired of losing, but not the idea that the team is at the point where they should be starting to turn things around.

These are two completely different things to me. I honestly haven't seen a single person here take the stance that the Leafs should improve because the fans are impatient and tired of seeing the team lose.

That's exactly right.  Adding Stamkos is part of a plan that will still require a lot of patience.

 

[jdh1]

I'm still very much on the fence in getting Stamkos,because of the fact that the core still may have to be drafted...I,m also wondering if he would want to come to a team not ready for prime time untill 4 or 5 years from now. 

 

[ZBBM]

Good. And I hope he wins the cup in Tampa so he can move on with no regrets.

The downside is that's 2 cups for the freaking lightning.

I was going to post the same thing. Doing so might make him ever so slightly more amenable to giving TO a discount.

I mean, Steven, you'll have a Cup and good terms with Yzerman et al. The only thing left is the very special immortality that would come with captaining your boyhood faves to a championship. Do that, and you become, essentially, God Himself.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Sabres to pursue Stamkos?  May very well be...here's how:

TSN's Bob McKenzie said that the Buffalo Sabres should be at the top of his list of destinations for Stamkos to sign on July...

If Stamkos is not re-signed by the Lightning and he decides to test the free agent market, could general manager Tim Murray make a pitch for Stamkos to come to Western New York?

According to generalfanager.com, the Sabres currently have $29,764,212 of cap space, and are projected to have $9,121,291 of cap space by the end of the season. Compared to all 30 NHL teams, the Sabres would have the fourth most room in the salary cap.

After the Trade Deadline, the Sabres could shed some contracts like Jamie McGinn, Mike Weber, and possibly Chad Johnson.

On July 1, the Sabres could shed the contracts of David Legwand and Carlo Colaiacovo. There could also be the possibility of buying out the contract of Matt Moulson in June, but the Sabres would have a buyout cap hit of $2.196 million over the next three seasons, a $3.196 million cap hit in 2018-19, and then $916,666 from 2019 to 2023.

The Sabres will also have to re-sign some restricted free agents including Zemgus Girgensons, Rasmus Ristolainen, Johan Larsson, Marcus Foligno, and Jake McCabe.

If the Sabres buyout the remaining contract of Moulson, the Sabres could have $28,024,645 before re-signing any of their unrestricted free agents or restricted free agents. Plus, the salary cap could go up once again from $71.4 million this season, which would create more room for possible contracts.

The Leafs?
TSN's Darren Dreger thinks that Stamkos' chances of signing in Toronto are right now, "remote". He points out that while the Leafs did do a nice job getting Phaneuf off the books to create some room for a big contract, the situation that Toronto is currently in may deter Stamkos from signing with the Leafs.

Dreger points out that Stamkos wants to win right now, and he wants to win for many more years to come. Right now, while Toronto has Mike Babcock behind the bench, the roster is not exactly set up to win in the near future. The goaltending has many questions, Morgan Reilly could be the only defenseman that has a future with the team, and the best player Stamkos could play with up front may be Nazem Kadri.

Compare that situation to Buffalo's situation right now, the Sabres seem to have a good amount of depth in net, the Sabres have Rasmus Ristolainen on defense but have room to grow, and the Sabres offense is young but could be on the verge of being a powerhouse force in the near future?


http://www.wgr550.com/Stamkos-to-Buffalo-a-possibility-/22467297

 

[Bill_Berg]

I'm still very much on the fence in getting Stamkos,because of the fact that the core still may have to be drafted...I,m also wondering if he would want to come to a team not ready for prime time untill 4 or 5 years from now.

He may not want to, if he does, hopefully it's because he's willing to play for a non-playoff team for a year or two and a non-contender for a year or two after that as well.

I would understand if he does not sign for those reasons.