Steve Stamkos?

[Tigger]

If the Leafs were to sign Stamkos

One version...

FORWARDS

J. Van Riemsdyk ($ 4,250,000) --- S. Stamkos ($ 10,500,000) --- M. Michalek ($ 4,000,000)
L. Komarov ($ 2,950,000) --- N. Kadri ($ 5,500,000) --- M. Marner ($ 925,000)
P. Holland ($ 775,000) --- W. Nylander ($ 894,166) --- J. Lupul ($ 5,250,000)
N. Soshnikov ($ 736,666) --- D. Winnik ($ 2,250,000) --- F. Gauthier ($ 863,333)

DEFENCE

M. Hunwick ($ 1,200,000) --- M. Rielly ($ 5,500,000)
J. Gardiner ($ 4,050,000) --- N. Zaitsev ($ 925,000)
J. Cowen ($ 3,100,000) --- F. Corrado ($ 632,500)

GOAL

J. Reimer ($ 4,500,000) --- G. Backup ($ 1,500,000)

Extras

C. Greening ($ 2,650,000) --- C. Brown ($ 686,667) --- M. Marincin ($ 700,000)

2015 NHL Cap Limit: $ 71,400,000
23 Player Roster Cap Used: $ 72,638,332
Cap Buried in the Minors: + $ 0
Cap Hit from Buyout(s): + $ 1,833,333
Cap Retained in Trades : + $ 1,400,000
Long Term Injury Reserve: - $ 8,300,000
Cap Space Available : $ 3,828,335

I didn't bother changing the calculation numbers up there, the cap is actually 700k more with Gunnar off the books and Gleason 500k less, and that's with this years cap.

 

[Tigger]

Needs some Matthews.

Another version...

FORWARDS

J. Van Riemsdyk ($ 4,250,000) --- S. Stamkos ($ 10,500,000) --- N. Kadri ($ 5,500,000)
L. Komarov ($ 2,950,000) --- A. Matthews ($ 925,000) --- M. Michalek ($ 4,000,000)
P. Holland ($ 775,000) --- W. Nylander ($ 894,166) --- J. Lupul ($ 5,250,000)
N. Soshnikov ($ 736,666) --- D. Winnik ($ 2,250,000) --- M. Marner ($ 925,000)

DEFENCE

M. Hunwick ($ 1,200,000) --- M. Rielly ($ 5,500,000)
J. Gardiner ($ 4,050,000) --- N. Zaitsev ($ 925,000)
J. Cowen ($ 3,100,000) --- F. Corrado ($ 632,500)

GOAL

J. Reimer ($ 4,500,000) --- G. Backup ($ 1,500,000)

Extras

C. Greening ($ 2,650,000) --- F. Gauthier ($ 863,333) --- M. Marincin ($ 700,000)

2015 NHL Cap Limit: $ 71,400,000
23 Player Roster Cap Used: $ 72,876,665
Cap Buried in the Minors: + $ 0
Cap Hit from Buyout(s): + $ 1,833,333
Cap Retained in Trades : + $ 1,400,000
Long Term Injury Reserve: - $ 8,300,000
Cap Space Available : $ 3,590,002

Same deal as the last, +700k on the cap.

 

[Tigger]

Crap, I forgot to adjust Holland, so maybe that 700k goes to him.

 

[dappleganger]

Needs some Matthews.

Best case scenario the Leafs will have a 20% chance of landing Matthews. I'm not counting on it. If the Leafs come last overall, they're guaranteed at least the 4th pick? and with that pick the Leafs select Alex Nylander! Book it.

 

[Tigger]

Needs some Matthews.

Best case scenario the Leafs will have a 20% chance of landing Matthews. I'm not counting on it. If the Leafs come last overall, they're guaranteed at least the 4th pick? and with that pick the Leafs select Alex Nylander! Book it.

Who would you pick at 4 is a good question.

 

[dappleganger]

Needs some Matthews.

Best case scenario the Leafs will have a 20% chance of landing Matthews. I'm not counting on it. If the Leafs come last overall, they're guaranteed at least the 4th pick? and with that pick the Leafs select Alex Nylander! Book it.

Who would you pick at 4 is a good question.

Jakob Chychrun would be a good bet.

 

[louisstamos]

Needs some Matthews.

Best case scenario the Leafs will have a 20% chance of landing Matthews. I'm not counting on it. If the Leafs come last overall, they're guaranteed at least the 4th pick? and with that pick the Leafs select Alex Nylander! Book it.

Who would you pick at 4 is a good question.

Jakob Chychrun would be a good bet.

I'd go Chychrun as well.  Best D-prospect in the draft.  But Puljuj?rvi and Tkachuk would be tempting too if they were still available.

 

[Tigger]

I think there's a pretty good chance the Leafs draft top 3, but if they don't, I'd like to see them try to trade up for Sergachev ( regardless, actually ) and take Chychrun too. If a player slips out of the top 3, that changes things a bit, and yeah, Tkachuk wouldn't be wrong either.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Best case scenario the Leafs will have a 20% chance of landing Matthews. I'm not counting on it. If the Leafs come last overall, they're guaranteed at least the 4th pick? and with that pick the Leafs select Alex Nylander! Book it.

Picking 4th would not be bad at all.  I'd be fine if they chose Nylander, or Chychrun, or Puljuja?rvi, or Tkachuk, or maybe  Laine.

Of course, a true #1 would set the LeafNation's heart aflutter and that would be Auston Matthews.

 

[herman]

[tweet]699744717857107968[/tweet]
[tweet]699756104373313540[/tweet]
http://www.sportsnet.ca/960/the-big-show/friedman-lightning-trying-to-quiet-rumours/

Friedman speculates the market for Stamkos will primarily be Toronto, Vancouver, and Tampa.

He also notes the disconnect between team and player: Yzerman believes Stamkos to be more of a winger now, $8.5-9M AAV, and pretty much no longer the go-to option for offense anymore. Whereas Stamkos still believes he is a centre and should be the primary offensive weapon on the team, and worth $10+.

The money quote is around the 5:20 mark. No substantiation mentioned.

I tend to side with Yzerman's assessment.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

[tweet]699744717857107968[/tweet]

Interesting on that first tweet. If that's true, Stamkos may have decided at that point he was leaving at the end of his contract. I wonder if that particular tidbit could be affecting his performance this year as well, especially if he had already decided he's done in Tampa.

 

[pnjunction]

I tend to side with Yzerman's assessment.

Same here, the drop-off in his numbers post-injury is too drastic to ignore (and this year is even worse).  The previous stats were worthy of 10+, the recent ones are not.  Is he young enough that he could he get back to game-breaking form on a new team? Maybe, but I wouldn't bet ~15% of my salary cap on it.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I tend to side with Yzerman's assessment.

Same here, the drop-off in his numbers post-injury is too drastic to ignore (and this year is even worse).  The previous stats were worthy of 10+, the recent ones are not.  Is he young enough that he could he get back to game-breaking form on a new team? Maybe, but I wouldn't bet ~15% of my salary cap on it.

Wouldn't you bet on the 450+ previous games versus the 56 odd games at his current pace?

 

[bustaheims]

Wouldn't you bet on the 450+ previous games versus the 56 odd games at his current pace?

I think there's some legitimacy in looking at things in a pre and post injury split, but, I agree that basing things mainly around his current season's production is short-sighted. Since the leg injury, his goal scoring rates have dropped slightly, while his overall production has taken a relatively significant hit. There are definitely other factors at play there, though, like having been moved to the wing, dissatisfaction the coach, etc. I think there's legit reason to be concerned his play has dropped a level, but not so much as people are making out.

While I don't necessarily agree with Friedman's suggestion of Yzerman's assessment of Stamkos as a player, I don't think he's far off in terms of his value against the cap.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Wouldn't you bet on the 450+ previous games versus the 56 odd games at his current pace?

I think there's some legitimacy in looking at things in a pre and post injury split, but, I agree that basing things mainly around his current season's production is short-sighted. Since the leg injury, his goal scoring rates have dropped slightly, while his overall production has taken a relatively significant hit. There are definitely other factors at play there, though, like having been moved to the wing, dissatisfaction the coach, etc. I think there's legit reason to be concerned his play has dropped a level, but not so much as people are making out.

While I don't necessarily agree with Friedman's suggestion of Yzerman's assessment of Stamkos as a player, I don't think he's far off in terms of his value against the cap.

Drop in quality of linemates and a drop of about 2-3 minutes of TOI per game too.  He's also riding his worst SH% since being a rookie.

 

[herman]

My primary agreement with Yzerman's assessment is the cap hit estimate. I also see Stamkos' style of play better suited to being a winger. He's more a shooter than a wheeler and dealer to my eye.

 

[Kin]

Winger or center or whatever, expecting Stamkos to sign as a UFA for essentially the same thing as what Tarasenko signed for as a RFA seems to be a pretty major misunderstanding of the salary structure of the league.

 

[bustaheims]

Drop in quality of linemates and a drop of about 2-3 minutes of TOI per game too.  He's also riding his worst SH% since being a rookie.

Those are influences, too, though there's definitely potential for a chicken/egg debate there.

 

[herman]

Winger or center or whatever, expecting Stamkos to sign as a UFA for essentially the same thing as what Tarasenko signed for as a RFA seems to be a pretty major misunderstanding of the salary structure of the league.

Don't GMs just love it when one of their contemporaries jacks up the market price?

 

[Kin]

Don't GMs just love it when one of their contemporaries jacks up the market price?

I assume they like it as much as players like it when impending UFAs re-sign with their clubs for less than they could have gotten on the market so it's probably a wash.