Steve Stamkos?

[ZBBM]

Obviously Stamkos is a great player and getting him would be pretty exciting but I can't help but feel that at least part of what's driving the fact that he hasn't signed an extension is that he's looking to get paid based on the numbers he was putting up a couple years ago and that he hasn't been able to since.

He also wants to get paid based on the Toews/Kane contracts, which IIRC were signed during a time when everybody figured that the salary cap would be exploding upward, especially with the news Rogers deal. Mirtle wrote that he could see a $80mil cap as early as the 16/17 season, and even possibly a $100mil cap 5-6 years after that. All that talk though has been thrown out the window, or at least put on hold. So Chicago kind of jumped the gun with those deals, but it's still set the trend going forward for teams looking to re-sign their elite talent.

That's part of it but AAV's were always going to shoot up coming out of the lockout because of the changes to backdiving and limits on term. The only reason stars were happy with AAV's of 8 or 9 million was if they were actually making 10 or 12.

But getting back to Nik's question: has he peaked?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That's part of it but AAV's were always going to shoot up coming out of the lockout because of the changes to backdiving and limits on term. The only reason stars were happy with AAV's of 8 or 9 million was if they were actually making 10 or 12.

For sure, but before the Toews/Kane deals Perry, Getzlaf, Giroux, Subban, and Kessel all signed 8-year CBA-legal deals with AAV's of 8 or 9 million. I'd give Stamkos the edge on those forwards (although Giroux is close and he signed for $8.275mil at roughly the same age), but Subban is probably as close to a Stamkos equivalent as a defenceman can be.

So I think that he probably would have been looking at $9-10mil prior to those Kane/Toews deals changing everything. Now it's probably $11-12mil. And I think you're right in wondering if he's worth that.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Would you do 10 for 8?

 

[bustaheims]

Would you do 10 for 8?

He's still an elite goalscorer, really only 2nd to Ovechkin in terms of the best in the league right now. But, yeah, that's a lot of money, for a long time.

 

[Kin]

That's part of it but AAV's were always going to shoot up coming out of the lockout because of the changes to backdiving and limits on term. The only reason stars were happy with AAV's of 8 or 9 million was if they were actually making 10 or 12.

For sure, but before the Toews/Kane deals Perry, Getzlaf, Giroux, Subban, and Kessel all signed 8-year CBA-legal deals with AAV's of 8 or 9 million. I'd give Stamkos the edge on those forwards (although Giroux is close and he signed for $8.275mil at roughly the same age), but Subban is probably as close to a Stamkos equivalent as a defenceman can be.

So I think that he probably would have been looking at $9-10mil prior to those Kane/Toews deals changing everything. Now it's probably $11-12mil. And I think you're right in wondering if he's worth that.

Subban was also a RFA though and he's the only one of those guys who signed his deal even a year after the CBA was signed when everyone had a better grasp of its ins and outs.

Understand, I don't disagree that the Kane/Toews' contracts changed things, I just think the impoetus for them is slightly different than you do. I think players looked at the Giroux/Getzlaf/Perry deals and thought that those agents didn't do very well.

Jakub Voracek, for instance, is a very good player but he's not going to be making anyone's short list for best player in the league. Those are the guys signing for 8+ these days.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Would you do 10 for 8?

It's a cop-out but I really don't think there's an easy answer to that question. He scored 42 goals last season playing with Ryan Callahan and Alex Killorn. If we were signing him I think the expectation would still be he'd be consistently netting 40+ goals and 85+ points or so.  At least for the next 5 or so years (even though Nonis took heat for his comment, I really don't think teams actually worry that much about years 7 and 8). Actually since you said 8 I'd want to clarify that I would actually be opposed to trading for him, unless it's a no-brainer.

I think that he's worth $10mil, the question just becomes how does that effect the teams salary structure. That's where I really can't do anything but shrug. If the team has a long-term plan in that regard and feels it can fit him in with Marner/Nylander/Rielly long-term then I'd have a hard time saying no to him. I certainly don't subscribe to the idea that signing him is detrimental to the rebuild in any way though.

My other thought would be that it would sort of depend on what happens with the lottery. If for instance we get Matthews I'd probably be pretty comfortable with our group going forward.

 

[herman]

If everybody in the league was suddenly a UFA today, which are the top 5 players you'd target for a 10/8 deal?

 

[Bullfrog]

Crosby
Toews
Karlsson
Weber
Price

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Karlsson
Methot
Ryan
Hoffman
Turris

 

[Kin]

McDavid
Tavares
Doughty
Ekblad
Seguin

 

[rdowdall]

Nobody has said Patrick Kane...that's interesting.

 

[Bullfrog]

Only two people have answered with serious answers.

 

[bustaheims]

Rielly
Nylander
Marner
Leafs 2016 1st round pick
Leafs 2017 1st round pick

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

McDavid
Tavares
Doughty
Ekblad
Seguin

Pretty much this would be my list.  Could probably go back and forth on a few more names (maybe someone like Tarasenko, Crosby, Klingberg) but I don't think you could go wrong with this group either.

 

[herman]

I'd have a hard time justifying an 8 year deal for a player drafted before 2008, hence no Kane, Toews, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin on my list. Scorers tend to drop off pretty sharply in production north of 30, right? 10M means this is a franchise cornerstone, so I favoured centremen and defensemen who offered more than just scoring, rather than wingers and goaltenders.

McDavid (might be premature, but he's really different from the rest)
Doughty
Subban
Ekblad
Taveres

Stamkos just missed my top five because he's already starting to tail off (injury? deployment?). He's more of a triggerman to me, than someone who generates for himself and others. I would've made an exception to my self-imposed age-limit rule for Toews because he brings pretty much everything to the table and could still be moderately effective at 35, but decided against it.

 

[Bullfrog]

ah, i didn't realize what 10/8 meant. I've got some older guys on the list that I wouldn't pick in that context, particularly Weber.

Crosby? I'm pretty sure I'd pay him $10M for the next 8 years.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

I'd have a hard time justifying an 8 year deal for a player drafted before 2008, hence no Kane, Toews, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin on my list. Scorers tend to drop off pretty sharply in production north of 30, right? 10M means this is a franchise cornerstone, so I favoured centremen and defensemen who offered more than just scoring, rather than wingers and goaltenders.

McDavid (might be premature, but he's really different from the rest)
Doughty
Subban
Ekblad
Taveres

Stamkos just missed my top five because he's already starting to tail off (injury? deployment?). He's more of a triggerman to me, than someone who generates for himself and others. I would've made an exception to my self-imposed age-limit rule for Toews because he brings pretty much everything to the table and could still be moderately effective at 35, but decided against it.

Aren't UFA deals 7 max, assuming that player is from outside your organization? If so, does that change your stance on Toews?

 

[Tigger]

I'd have a hard time justifying an 8 year deal for a player drafted before 2008, hence no Kane, Toews, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin on my list. Scorers tend to drop off pretty sharply in production north of 30, right? 10M means this is a franchise cornerstone, so I favoured centremen and defensemen who offered more than just scoring, rather than wingers and goaltenders.

McDavid (might be premature, but he's really different from the rest)
Doughty
Subban
Ekblad
Taveres

Stamkos just missed my top five because he's already starting to tail off (injury? deployment?). He's more of a triggerman to me, than someone who generates for himself and others. I would've made an exception to my self-imposed age-limit rule for Toews because he brings pretty much everything to the table and could still be moderately effective at 35, but decided against it.

That's a tight list, Seguin is pretty interchangeable there too.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Maybe it's just because I don't really see any defenceman in this league hitting the $10mil mark any time soon, but I have a hard time including Ekblad on these lists. Especially after just 1.5 seasons. I understand how good he is, and I guess if push came to shove and I'd probably do it, I just think it wouldn't come to that.

 

[Tigger]

Maybe it's just because I don't really see any defenceman in this league hitting the $10mil mark any time soon, but I have a hard time including Ekblad on these lists. Especially after just 1.5 seasons. I understand how good he is, and I guess if push came to shove and I'd probably do it, I just think it wouldn't come to that.

Maybe, you'd probably have Sequin over him there but he's a pretty seriously good defenceman, especially for his age, you'd be betting on how much better he could be with experience ( plus those sweet prime years ).