Steve Stamkos?

[Bill_Berg]

Not being patient is the pit. You said "I'd prefer to see them contend a little sooner than the 2019-20 season", if that's not in the original plan, then changing your mind to speed things up is the pit. However that manifests itself, FAs signing, trades, etc...

At the very least, it's a slippery slope - which is still bad.

Sure, a slippery slope that many a Leaf GM has slipped upon though. And why walk across the slope when there's a perfectly good walking path just a few meters out of the way.

How many draft picks has Shanahan traded away on players to make his team better thus far?

How full are our prospect cupboards?

He's already managed this organization in his first two seasons like no management has ever done before him in my lifetime.  Its time to reap a big reward for successfully clearing all that cap.

Clearing the cap is a minor win along the way to success and at this point it's expected. It's not an accomplishment in itself. It's just a necessary step on the path.

 

[TBLeafer]

Shanahan knowing Carlyle's Leafs would implode, he let's Carlyle's Leafs implode.  I said when the season started that Carlyle would be fired at year's end.  I was off by days and the full on tank effort under Horachek began. A tank effort is a rebuilding effort and it resulted in Marner, who will be a key piece going forward.

That's all well and good, but it doesn't change the fact that the moves made going into that season were made by a GM who thought the team only needed a few tweaks to make the playoffs, and was trying to build a competitive team. That wasn't a team built with the purpose of being bad. It was a team that was badly built. There were no moves made to strip the team down or break up the core until the season was lost. As I said before, being bad isn't rebuilding. Being bad is being bad. That team wasn't bad on purpose or by design. That team didn't tank. That team just sucked.

The rebuild officially kicked off when Kessel was dealt. He was the first core piece out the door. The first clear signal that the core of the team was going to be rebuilt.

Clarkson and other pieces moved to acquire draft picks at the deadline kicked off this rebuild. Firing Carlyle and going with an interim coach kicked off this rebuild and it would have continued regardless of moving or not moving Kessel. All that showed was that Shanahan was committed to doing it.
The housecleaning didn't start with the players if you recall.

 

[bustaheims]

Clarkson and other pieces moved to acquire draft picks at the deadline kicked off this rebuild. Firing Carlyle and going with an interim coach kicked off this rebuild and it would have continued regardless of moving or not moving Kessel. All that showed was that Shanahan was committed to doing it.
The housecleaning didn't start with the players if you recall.

That still all only started a year and a half ago, so, by your own logic, the team is only in year 2/going into the 2nd full season of the rebuild.

 

[TBLeafer]

Based on where they went in their respective draft classes, we have our version of them.  That they develop into something as good or near as good as them is still admittedly a hope, yes.  But its not an irrational one.

While I do get where you're going at with that - Matthews and Marner playing similar "type" of games to Toews and Kane, you can't really let draft position dictate the quality of the player.  The quality of the draft pool varies incredibly from year to year.  Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is nowhere near the same level of Sidney Crosby, but they're both playmaking centres that went first overall.

We had that discussion about Kadri a few weeks back - some people were disappointed because they thought a player taken that high (7th overall) should be a first line player.  But if you looked at the rest of the picks immediately after in the first round - Kadri was still arguably the best player taken at that #7 spot.  It just so happened that outside of the top 3 (Tavares, Hedman, Duchene) and OEL at #6 (the pick right before :S), that draft didn't really produce first unit players.

I have faith we'll get the most out of them. We have a big Babcock.

 

[TBLeafer]

Clarkson and other pieces moved to acquire draft picks at the deadline kicked off this rebuild. Firing Carlyle and going with an interim coach kicked off this rebuild and it would have continued regardless of moving or not moving Kessel. All that showed was that Shanahan was committed to doing it.
The housecleaning didn't start with the players if you recall.

That still all only started a year and a half ago, so, by your own logic, the team is only in year 2/going into the 2nd full season of the rebuild.

Okay. I'll go back even further. The scouts and all assistants.

 

[bustaheims]

Okay. I'll go back even further. The scouts and all assistants.

The scouts were fired last summer. The assistants that were changed going into Carlyle's last season were brought in to help the team compete, not to be part of the rebuild - otherwise, they'd still be around, instead of also getting fired last summer.

So, we're still in year 2/going into the 2nd full season.

 

[TBLeafer]

Okay. I'll go back even further. The scouts and all assistants.

The scouts were fired last summer. The assistants that were changed going into Carlyle's last season were brought in to help the team compete, not to be part of the rebuild - otherwise, they'd still be around, instead of also getting fired last summer.

So, we're still in year 2/going into the 2nd full season.

The hiring of Dubas. The first indication that Shanny was  ushering in a new era. It didn't start with the product on the ice is my point.

 

[TBLeafer]

Not being patient is the pit. You said "I'd prefer to see them contend a little sooner than the 2019-20 season", if that's not in the original plan, then changing your mind to speed things up is the pit. However that manifests itself, FAs signing, trades, etc...

At the very least, it's a slippery slope - which is still bad.

Sure, a slippery slope that many a Leaf GM has slipped upon though. And why walk across the slope when there's a perfectly good walking path just a few meters out of the way.

How many draft picks has Shanahan traded away on players to make his team better thus far?

How full are our prospect cupboards?

He's already managed this organization in his first two seasons like no management has ever done before him in my lifetime.  Its time to reap a big reward for successfully clearing all that cap.

Clearing the cap is a minor win along the way to success and at this point it's expected. It's not an accomplishment in itself. It's just a necessary step on the path.

You also need cap to sign players you determine that you want to bring in to improve your team.

 

[bustaheims]

The hiring of Dubas. The first indication that Shanny was  ushering in a new era. It didn't start with the product on the ice is my point.

Completely disagree. A team that spends the summer adding pieces in an attempt to get into the playoffs that season has not begun rebuilding simply because they made some changes to the front office. A rebuild starts with a fundamental shift in the way building the roster is actively being approached. That did not start that summer. At the earliest, it started at the 2015 trade deadline, but I still say it didn't really get underway until that summer.

But, I mean, you can keep trying to move the goalposts.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Not being patient is the pit. You said "I'd prefer to see them contend a little sooner than the 2019-20 season", if that's not in the original plan, then changing your mind to speed things up is the pit. However that manifests itself, FAs signing, trades, etc...

At the very least, it's a slippery slope - which is still bad.

Sure, a slippery slope that many a Leaf GM has slipped upon though. And why walk across the slope when there's a perfectly good walking path just a few meters out of the way.

How many draft picks has Shanahan traded away on players to make his team better thus far?

How full are our prospect cupboards?

He's already managed this organization in his first two seasons like no management has ever done before him in my lifetime.  Its time to reap a big reward for successfully clearing all that cap.

Clearing the cap is a minor win along the way to success and at this point it's expected. It's not an accomplishment in itself. It's just a necessary step on the path.

You also need cap to sign players you determine that you want to bring in to improve your team.

Ya that's why you clear it. But that doesn't mean you have to fill it back up the second it's clear. Not when you have a plethora of guys that could end up demanding big dollars to stay.

 

[TBLeafer]

The hiring of Dubas. The first indication that Shanny was  ushering in a new era. It didn't start with the product on the ice is my point.

Completely disagree. A team that spends the summer adding pieces in an attempt to get into the playoffs that season has not begun rebuilding simply because they made some changes to the front office. A rebuild starts with a fundamental shift in the way building the roster is actively being approached. That did not start that summer. At the earliest, it started at the 2015 trade deadline, but I still say it didn't really get underway until that summer.

But, I mean, you can keep trying to move the goalposts.

When it was Shanny that hand picked Carlyle's assistants I knew they weren't putting a team together to make a playoff team. There were no real roster improvements.

 

[Omallley]

Clarkson and other pieces moved to acquire draft picks at the deadline kicked off this rebuild. Firing Carlyle and going with an interim coach kicked off this rebuild and it would have continued regardless of moving or not moving Kessel. All that showed was that Shanahan was committed to doing it.
The housecleaning didn't start with the players if you recall.

That still all only started a year and a half ago, so, by your own logic, the team is only in year 2/going into the 2nd full season of the rebuild.

Okay. I'll go back even further. The scouts and all assistants.

They were all fired in April 2015. So, 14 months ago.

 

[TBLeafer]

Not being patient is the pit. You said "I'd prefer to see them contend a little sooner than the 2019-20 season", if that's not in the original plan, then changing your mind to speed things up is the pit. However that manifests itself, FAs signing, trades, etc...

At the very least, it's a slippery slope - which is still bad.

Sure, a slippery slope that many a Leaf GM has slipped upon though. And why walk across the slope when there's a perfectly good walking path just a few meters out of the way.

How many draft picks has Shanahan traded away on players to make his team better thus far?

How full are our prospect cupboards?

He's already managed this organization in his first two seasons like no management has ever done before him in my lifetime.  Its time to reap a big reward for successfully clearing all that cap.

Clearing the cap is a minor win along the way to success and at this point it's expected. It's not an accomplishment in itself. It's just a necessary step on the path.

You also need cap to sign players you determine that you want to bring in to improve your team.

Ya that's why you clear it. But that doesn't mean you have to fill it back up the second it's clear. Not when you have a plethora of guys that could end up demanding big dollars to stay.

And all are YEARS AWAY from potentially requiring big contracts. Leafs are two seasons away from needing a major contract on the books from reaching the salary cap floor.

 

[bustaheims]

When it was Shanny that hand picked Carlyle's assistants I knew they weren't putting a team together to make a playoff team. There were no real roster improvements.

They added Komarov, Robidas, Winnik, Santarelli, and Frattin. They had a deal in place to trade for Gorges. They tried to sign Bolland to a big money, long-term deal. They were absolutely attempting to improve the roster. The fact that they failed is irrelevant. The intent was there. That was their goal. That's not rebuilding.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Not being patient is the pit. You said "I'd prefer to see them contend a little sooner than the 2019-20 season", if that's not in the original plan, then changing your mind to speed things up is the pit. However that manifests itself, FAs signing, trades, etc...

At the very least, it's a slippery slope - which is still bad.

Sure, a slippery slope that many a Leaf GM has slipped upon though. And why walk across the slope when there's a perfectly good walking path just a few meters out of the way.

How many draft picks has Shanahan traded away on players to make his team better thus far?

How full are our prospect cupboards?

He's already managed this organization in his first two seasons like no management has ever done before him in my lifetime.  Its time to reap a big reward for successfully clearing all that cap.

Clearing the cap is a minor win along the way to success and at this point it's expected. It's not an accomplishment in itself. It's just a necessary step on the path.

You also need cap to sign players you determine that you want to bring in to improve your team.

Ya that's why you clear it. But that doesn't mean you have to fill it back up the second it's clear. Not when you have a plethora of guys that could end up demanding big dollars to stay.

And all are YEARS AWAY from potentially requiring big contracts. Leafs are two seasons away from needing a major contract on the books from reaching the salary cap floor.

I don't think not reaching the floor will ever be a problem, even without Stamkos.

 

[Bullfrog]

When it was Shanny that hand picked Carlyle's assistants I knew they weren't putting a team together to make a playoff team. There were no real roster improvements.

They added Komarov, Robidas, Winnik, Santarelli, and Frattin. They had a deal in place to trade for Gorges. They tried to sign Bolland to a big money, long-term deal. They were absolutely attempting to improve the roster. The fact that they failed is irrelevant. The intent was there. That was their goal. That's not rebuilding.

I'm so glad Nonis is gone. That team was a sinking ship.

 

[Kin]

Based on where they went in their respective draft classes, we have our version of them.  That they develop into something as good or near as good as them is still admittedly a hope, yes.  But its not an irrational one.

While I do get where you're going at with that - Matthews and Marner playing similar "type" of games to Toews and Kane, you can't really let draft position dictate the quality of the player.  The quality of the draft pool varies incredibly from year to year.  Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is nowhere near the same level of Sidney Crosby, but they're both playmaking centres that went first overall.

We had that discussion about Kadri a few weeks back - some people were disappointed because they thought a player taken that high (7th overall) should be a first line player.  But if you looked at the rest of the picks immediately after in the first round - Kadri was still arguably the best player taken at that #7 spot.  It just so happened that outside of the top 3 (Tavares, Hedman, Duchene) and OEL at #6 (the pick right before :S), that draft didn't really produce first unit players.

I have faith we'll get the most out of them. We have a big Babcock.

See, this is the endless logic loop that you can't get out of. No matter what, you always find yourself back here trying to argue that what should dictate the direction of the team is your "optimism" or "faith" or whatever word you want to use as opposed to being cautious and waiting to see what the team has.

And, again, optimism or faith is a fine thing to have if you want. If you want to think Marner and Matthews definitely will be Kane/Toews or Zaitsev is definitely HOF bound or Garret Sparks is going to turn into our Tim Thomas without a doubt then that's fine but you can't confuse that with a rational argument and you especially can't criticize the thought process of someone who wants to base their views of what the team should do on something as rational as not building around players who haven't played a NHL game until they establish themselves.

Because we are back to the difference between facts/not facts again. When we say we don't know how good those guys will be, that is a fact. When you say you do, that isn't one.

 

[Zee]

Year 3.  Shanny will be starting year 3 in the fall.  His rebuild started the season his team plummeted to obtain 4th OA.

At most, the team is entering Year 2. Failing in your attempts to build a competitive team and being bad is not rebuilding. Breaking up your existing core and starting over is. That only started last summer.

Shanahan knowing Carlyle's Leafs would implode, he let's Carlyle's Leafs implode.  I said when the season started that Carlyle would be fired at year's end.  I was off by days and the full on tank effort under Horachek began. A tank effort is a rebuilding effort and it resulted in Marner, who will be a key piece going forward.

Year 3.

In year 3 we challenge for a playoff spot.  In year 4 we are a playoff team.  In year five we should be ready to compete for the cup in the third year of Matthews and Marner's ELC's.  Stanley Cup contenders in the 2018/19 season with Stamkos.

That is not an accelerated rebuild.  That's a 5 year plan as set in motion by Shanny (aka the Shanaplan) in the 2014/15 season.

There is no need whatsoever to wash, rinse and repeat last season. There is a need to start getting much better for anyone who plays to win.

That is precisely what Shanahan is about to start doing so you can either be surprised by it, or prepared for it.

Tank Nation is over.

And yes that's just IMO.

You think the Leafs are challenging for a playoff spot next season?

I can see them getting +/- 85 points.  Without Stamkos.

Alrighty then, that's pretty optimistic.

I dunno I can see where he's coming from here.  By my count Leafs outright lost 15 one goal games last season.  They were in a lot of games despite shaky goaltending and inconsistent scoring.  If they can find a way to win half of those games, that's an extra 15 points from their total of 69.  With any type of reliable goaltending and an upgrade in offense I think it's doable.

 

[bustaheims]

I dunno I can see where he's coming from here.  By my count Leafs outright lost 15 one goal games last season.  They were in a lot of games despite shaky goaltending and inconsistent scoring.  If they can find a way to win half of those games, that's an extra 15 points from their total of 69.  With any type of reliable goaltending and an upgrade in offense I think it's doable.

I get what you're saying, but, one thing that probably needs to be pointed out is that, this past season, the Leafs had a fairly veteran lineup most nights up until the trade deadline. They dressed a group of players, thanks to their experience, were able to stay within the system when things didn't go the Leafs' way. This coming season, it's expected the team will have a much more youth heavy lineup. With youth generally comes inconsistency, and less composure - and, as a result, more porous defensive play. There may be more offensive talent on the team next season, but I wouldn't put money on there being more consistent production. I imagine there will be fewer close games - and largely not in the Leafs' favour.

 

[Tigger]

I dunno I can see where he's coming from here.  By my count Leafs outright lost 15 one goal games last season.  They were in a lot of games despite shaky goaltending and inconsistent scoring.  If they can find a way to win half of those games, that's an extra 15 points from their total of 69.  With any type of reliable goaltending and an upgrade in offense I think it's doable.

I watched the same games you did, never did I think 'if only they could get a goal here and there they could be a playoff team'. Minnesota getting in with 87 is pretty much an outlier, asking for a swing of something like 12 more wins to get in is pretty huge.