Ukraine

[Kin]

I get where they're coming from with these 'sanctions', but in this specific implementation, it is quite literally doing what Russian Hockey prefers; recently they basically stonewalled all CHL Russian juniors from even trying out for the WJC, citing the existing chemistry and familiarity of players who have done tourneys together. Similarly, KHL players who have expressed interest in an NHL opportunity are immediately benched.

Right, but the target of these sanctions isn't the Russian Hockey Federation who, I think it's fair to assume, are generally going to be Pro-Putin. It's the actual people affected by this.

My read on this is his livelihood is dependent on relationships, and I would imagine his clientele and future prospects will run the full spectrum of support for Putin. Like Michael Jordan's 'Republicans buy sneakers, too' stance (intended to be glib, but really just saying $$ first). Open anti-regime messaging from Milstein likely means he'll be blackballed. Panarin firing Milstein back in 2019 hits a little different now.

No, I get it. I'm saying that's bad. Like "Republicans buy Sneakers too" has done some serious damage to Jordan's reputation as a person.

 

[L K]

I don't want the Russian people punished for this.  I understand why things are being done this way and appreciate how the world is standing up for Ukraine. 

I do think that stuff like banning kids from the import draft is really just irrelevant fluff.  Financial sanctions are hurting Russia.  They are designed to have someone turn on Putin and force his removal (or get him to reverse course on the attack). 

I don't see this kind of move having any real impact.  Apparently EA is going to remove Russia from their NHL and FIFA games next year. 

Ultimately I really do think the only thing that is going to stop this is more active military engagement.  Russia is amplifying their assault.  More aggressive bombings.  Children are dying as they are trying to care for them in bomb shelters.  The world needs to consider stronger actions.  Sanctions aren't going to stop a mad-man who isn't going to ever face the financial impact of the hardships and he is insulated enough that it will be a while before someone takes him out within his cabinet.

There has been a growing list of foreign fighters coming to Ukraine from many European nations.  There have been groups from units from the US military who served tours in the Middle East who are going to Ukraine to fight.  That has been nice to see. 

 

[Arn]

I have been very distressed to see the pure destruction and loss of civilian, particularly children, life which is basically at the hands of what can now only be seen as an authoritarian dictator. It's tough to watch and take in.

The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, is an absolute hero.

The people of Ukraine and those who have gone to their aid are heroes. I suspect the Russian dictator expected to be ik Kyiv within hours. We're now 8 days down and his massive convoy has stalled.

There are a lot of reports and stories about Russian soldiers who do not want to be in Ukraine, many surrendering, many whose parents back home think they're on training missions and don't know that their army has invaded another country due to the media outlets in the country being controlled and social media etc being shut down.

Military action is way down the list. There have been calls for a NATO enforced No Fly Zone. That has been avoided as NATO know that they would have to enforce it and if they were to fire on a Russian jet that is a European war started.

Zelensky has managed to unite Europe in ways many haven't before. His diplomacy has seen Germany completely change their stance on defense spending, for example. The sanctions that have been brought in as well have been encouraged by his stance.

I hope that the Ukrainians continue to resist as they have and the sanctions bite quickly, which they seem to be doing.

The thoughts of military action are, quite frankly, terrifying, in terms of what it would mean for Europe and probably the globe.

 

[Bullfrog]

I don't want the Russian people punished for this.  I understand why things are being done this way and appreciate how the world is standing up for Ukraine. 

I do think that stuff like banning kids from the import draft is really just irrelevant fluff.  Financial sanctions are hurting Russia.  They are designed to have someone turn on Putin and force his removal (or get him to reverse course on the attack). 

I don't see this kind of move having any real impact.  Apparently EA is going to remove Russia from their NHL and FIFA games next year. 

Ultimately I really do think the only thing that is going to stop this is more active military engagement.  Russia is amplifying their assault.  More aggressive bombings.  Children are dying as they are trying to care for them in bomb shelters.  The world needs to consider stronger actions.  Sanctions aren't going to stop a mad-man who isn't going to ever face the financial impact of the hardships and he is insulated enough that it will be a while before someone takes him out within his cabinet.

There has been a growing list of foreign fighters coming to Ukraine from many European nations.  There have been groups from units from the US military who served tours in the Middle East who are going to Ukraine to fight.  That has been nice to see.

But what do you mean by stronger actions?
After reading and watching Princeton University's simulation of nuclear war, I understand the hesitancy.

 

[Arn]

The likes of the UK need to act now with their sanctions, instead of giving people 30 days to sell off their assets before they're seized...

https://inews.co.uk/news/government-accused-of-absurd-sanctions-loophole-after-giving-russian-bank-customers-30-days-to-wind-down-assets-1490017

No idea why that could be, though

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1574370/Russian-oligarchs-linked-conservative-party-tory-donor-evg

 

[Arn]

And a couple of interesting videos

This one from the BBC showing some of what?s going on

https://youtu.be/ivPMX4Vzuek

This is a longer update from Channel 4 and covers a bit of the first city to fall to Russian forces

https://youtu.be/oFEKhLEnkic

 

[Highlander]

Putin will not back down until he destroys Ukraine, he has made it plain since 2008 that he will not tolerate border states to join Nato.  2008 was the year that it was announced that Ukraine had the possibility to join.  S

 

[Highlander]

So we are in a heap of shit unless Zelensky tells Putin that Ukraine will not attempt to join Nato. And I don't see that happening.

 

[Bender]

Putin will not back down until he destroys Ukraine, he has made it plain since 2008 that he will not tolerate border states to join Nato.  2008 was the year that it was announced that Ukraine had the possibility to join.  S

Ukraine should have the right to make its own decisions regardless of whether Russia approves of them or not, and even so nothing was imminent until he randomly decided to invade, which most people did not predict, even people in the Kremlin seemed surprised. Putin attacking literally just flung Ukraine into NATO & Europe's arms.

 

[L K]

So we are in a heap of shit unless Zelensky tells Putin that Ukraine will not attempt to join Nato. And I don't see that happening.

That's won't change it.  The only thing that would stop the attack on Ukraine would be the world bombing the hell out of the Russian invasion or Zelensky surrendering control of Ukraine to Putin.

 

[L K]

I don't want the Russian people punished for this.  I understand why things are being done this way and appreciate how the world is standing up for Ukraine. 

I do think that stuff like banning kids from the import draft is really just irrelevant fluff.  Financial sanctions are hurting Russia.  They are designed to have someone turn on Putin and force his removal (or get him to reverse course on the attack). 

I don't see this kind of move having any real impact.  Apparently EA is going to remove Russia from their NHL and FIFA games next year. 

Ultimately I really do think the only thing that is going to stop this is more active military engagement.  Russia is amplifying their assault.  More aggressive bombings.  Children are dying as they are trying to care for them in bomb shelters.  The world needs to consider stronger actions.  Sanctions aren't going to stop a mad-man who isn't going to ever face the financial impact of the hardships and he is insulated enough that it will be a while before someone takes him out within his cabinet.

There has been a growing list of foreign fighters coming to Ukraine from many European nations.  There have been groups from units from the US military who served tours in the Middle East who are going to Ukraine to fight.  That has been nice to see.

But what do you mean by stronger actions?
After reading and watching Princeton University's simulation of nuclear war, I understand the hesitancy.

I certainly do understand the hesitancy.  I guess my concern (and admittedly I'm coming from an emotional place on it) is that the transfer of munitions isn't going to be enough.  How many civilians being killed hits the threshold of saying too much?  Do we let Putin take over Ukraine fully?  If he invades Slovakia, Estonia, Hungary?  What is the threshold for too much invasion before the world has to call Putin's bluff and act beyond sanctions and shipping in weaponry.

It's a decision that is far beyond my own understanding of where to draw the line. 

Actions like the UK's nonsense 18 month window to divest property is why sanctions are going to only go so far in having someone stop Putin.  Strict punishment of the Russian people but kid gloves for the Oligarchs.

 

[Highlander]

This happened in 2014 with the annex of the Crimea, however it was not dubbed an invasion as Russia had troops in the Crimea at its Naval base (on land they were renting from Ukraine's government).  So Crimea was annexed but not in a formal invasion, but from within.
I don't believe that Putin intends to invade Hungary or even annex Ukraine, what he intends to do is wreck Ukraine and he is not going to give up until he does.
If we extend the military option from our end, then this goes nuclear and that my friends is the end.

 

[Bullfrog]

I don't want the Russian people punished for this.  I understand why things are being done this way and appreciate how the world is standing up for Ukraine. 

I do think that stuff like banning kids from the import draft is really just irrelevant fluff.  Financial sanctions are hurting Russia.  They are designed to have someone turn on Putin and force his removal (or get him to reverse course on the attack). 

I don't see this kind of move having any real impact.  Apparently EA is going to remove Russia from their NHL and FIFA games next year. 

Ultimately I really do think the only thing that is going to stop this is more active military engagement.  Russia is amplifying their assault.  More aggressive bombings.  Children are dying as they are trying to care for them in bomb shelters.  The world needs to consider stronger actions.  Sanctions aren't going to stop a mad-man who isn't going to ever face the financial impact of the hardships and he is insulated enough that it will be a while before someone takes him out within his cabinet.

There has been a growing list of foreign fighters coming to Ukraine from many European nations.  There have been groups from units from the US military who served tours in the Middle East who are going to Ukraine to fight.  That has been nice to see.

But what do you mean by stronger actions?
After reading and watching Princeton University's simulation of nuclear war, I understand the hesitancy.

I certainly do understand the hesitancy.  I guess my concern (and admittedly I'm coming from an emotional place on it) is that the transfer of munitions isn't going to be enough.  How many civilians being killed hits the threshold of saying too much?  Do we let Putin take over Ukraine fully?  If he invades Slovakia, Estonia, Hungary?  What is the threshold for too much invasion before the world has to call Putin's bluff and act beyond sanctions and shipping in weaponry.

It's a decision that is far beyond my own understanding of where to draw the line. 

Actions like the UK's nonsense 18 month window to divest property is why sanctions are going to only go so far in having someone stop Putin.  Strict punishment of the Russian people but kid gloves for the Oligarchs.

I can certainly appreciate your position. I'm in the same position with respect to my understanding. I'm sickened by how Ukraine is left to fend for itself due to the posturing of this maniac. This is definitely a complex issue.

I've been wrestling with that very question. I mean, for me, I think the killing of civilians is pretty close to that line.

 

[herman]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-xuQLPEeZk
Fiona Hill on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert with a summary of where things stand at a macro level

 

[Kin]

I don't want the Russian people punished for this.  I understand why things are being done this way and appreciate how the world is standing up for Ukraine. 

I do think that stuff like banning kids from the import draft is really just irrelevant fluff.  Financial sanctions are hurting Russia.  They are designed to have someone turn on Putin and force his removal (or get him to reverse course on the attack). 

I don't see this kind of move having any real impact.  Apparently EA is going to remove Russia from their NHL and FIFA games next year. 

That's fair and the reality is that any of these things, in isolation, is fairly unlikely to have a major impact on the political situaiton.

But that said, I feel like there's a second layer here where regardless of the impact, it seems like there's a lot of people who are sort of tired of the idea that we should act like we're on good terms with another country when we're not and that pretending that we are by means of sporting matches and cultural events isn't so much engagement as it is papering over the ugly realities and ignoring what they're saying about us.

Admittedly there's no right or wrong answer here but it's sort of the South Africa question from 30 years ago. At what point should we be like "If your country is going to act like that, maybe you don't get invited to the party".

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1499445304696913926
This is a positive development

 

[Arn]

I don't want the Russian people punished for this.  I understand why things are being done this way and appreciate how the world is standing up for Ukraine. 

I do think that stuff like banning kids from the import draft is really just irrelevant fluff.  Financial sanctions are hurting Russia.  They are designed to have someone turn on Putin and force his removal (or get him to reverse course on the attack). 

I don't see this kind of move having any real impact.  Apparently EA is going to remove Russia from their NHL and FIFA games next year. 

That's fair and the reality is that any of these things, in isolation, is fairly unlikely to have a major impact on the political situaiton.

But that said, I feel like there's a second layer here where regardless of the impact, it seems like there's a lot of people who are sort of tired of the idea that we should act like we're on good terms with another country when we're not and that pretending that we are by means of sporting matches and cultural events isn't so much engagement as it is papering over the ugly realities and ignoring what they're saying about us.

Admittedly there's no right or wrong answer here but it's sort of the South Africa question from 30 years ago. At what point should we be like "If your country is going to act like that, maybe you don't get invited to the party".

I also get where Lk is coming from but I think it?s the compounding impact of all these things that will (hopefully) break the people of Russia to the extent where they finally realise and somehow make a stand that threatens Putin from within.

But with the blocking of alternative outside media as it is too negative, the stories of children being arrested for speaking out and the lessons in how bad the Ukraine is being mandated for all pupils in schools etc that internal information war has also already started.

 

[bustaheims]

I can only speak from my family's experience in South Africa, but, the longer these sanctions go, the more ways people will find to get around them. Even with the sanctions, South Africa had no real shortages of essentials or luxury products. For them to be effective, they need to have a strong and as immediate as possible an impact on the people in charge. You want to mobilize the Russian people? Sanctions are not the way to get that to happen. That requires more of a "hearts and minds" style campaign. There's a very good reason so many of these sanctions are targeted at Putin and his oligarch cronies - hitting them where it hurts is the only way they might force Putin to back down.

 

[Kin]

I can only speak from my family's experience in South Africa, but, the longer these sanctions go, the more ways people will find to get around them. Even with the sanctions, South Africa had no real shortages of essentials or luxury products. For them to be effective, they need to have a strong and as immediate as possible an impact on the people in charge. You want to mobilize the Russian people? Sanctions are not the way to get that to happen. That requires more of a "hearts and minds" style campaign. There's a very good reason so many of these sanctions are targeted at Putin and his oligarch cronies - hitting them where it hurts is the only way they might force Putin to back down.

I sort of disagree on two fronts. One, like I said, I don't think all of these efforts are just about "How do we bring Russia down?". Some of it is just about the practical application of morality regardless of the effect.

But secondly, the kleptocrats Putin has surrounded himself are so wealthy(and the appetite for gas/oil so voracious in China) that even if you start actually seizing assets in the West and seizing all the assets available, they can always steal more. Unless you're actually willing to bankrupt his cronies and leave them with nothing(which it's pretty clear that the West is unwilling to do) then they'll coast on the billions they have squirreled away and wait this thing out. Real, meaningful change probably has to come from the Russian people. 

 

[L K]

Blasts at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.  Fires at the plant.  No international alarms at present to suggest any fear of core instability.

You don?t want nuclear devices fired by upsetting Putin, fine.  You don?t want to prevent the murder of women and children, fine.  Fear not Russia can destroy Europe with another Chernobyl that won?t be stoppable.  This is madness