Where to send Liles??

[bustaheims]

Burke signed that deal, so I'm sure Nonis is not too broken up if he has to buyout Liles. He's correcting the cap problem if anything.

No, he isn't. If he buys Liles out, he's really just pushing the cap problem a couple years down the line.

 

[wnc096]

Berger - Looks like #Leafs will use a non-compliance buy-out on John-Michael Liles, though I'm not convinced team can ever have too many defensemen.

I know it is Berger, but he must know something before writing this.

Ouch, that's no good.

If that's the case then they really should've used that last compliance buyout on Liles instead of Komisarek.

Hindsight is 20-20. They were probably hoping to get something back in trade for Liles but knew Komisarek wouldnt fetch anything in return.

I don't know if I'd agree with the hindsight is 20-20 excuse in this case. That's more appropriate when dealing with something that's unknowable at the time a decision was made, like, which 18 year old to draft in the 6th round or something.

In this case there hasn't really been any surprise that could have been unforeseen.

But I'm still expecting in the end that Leaf management will come up with a better solution than a buyout.

I do think that hindsight is key here...i think i they had a good notion going into the amnesty buyout window in early July,  that they were going to be able to re-sign Bozak....thus they bought out grabovski.  However there was no guarantee that Clarkson was going to sign in toronto, had they bought out Liles at that time and Clarkson DIDN'T sign, there would be a couple rather large wholes in the line up at forward and defense without decent in-house players to fill them.  Yes,  they would have had the capspace, but then people would complain because they would have to trade young players in order to fill out the roster, and both Kadri's and Franson's agents would use the availble cap space as leverage to get deals done at higher salaries....and people would then complain that got too much.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Burke signed that deal, so I'm sure Nonis is not too broken up if he has to buyout Liles. He's correcting the cap problem if anything.

The cap problem that he had a large part in creating. The team had the 2nd most amount of cap space before July 5th.

 

[Hampreacher]

Will be hard to deal Liles now when can get him for nothing player wise. May cost them more money wise than 2.6 million.

 

[TML fan]

I think the Leafs are way more likely to deal Franson than they are to buy out Liles.

The Leafs knew that they still had RFAs to sign when they signed Bozak and Clarkson. It's hard to believe that they didn't have an idea of what those players were going to cost and what they were willing to pay them. I think the Leafs have numbers in their heads that make sense for Kadri and Franson and I think the number Franson is throwin out at them is nowhere close to what they are willing to pay.

Franson is only valuable if he's not making a lot of money. I don't think the Leafs view him as a player they want to give more ice time to if they have a choice. I think he's a bottom pairing guy and I think the Leafs see him that way too. Paying him middle pairing money because he's good on the powerplay doesn't make sense. I think Liles is a better all around defenseman.

 

[hap_leaf]

I think the Leafs are way more likely to deal Franson than they are to buy out Liles.

The Leafs knew that they still had RFAs to sign when they signed Bozak and Clarkson. It's hard to believe that they didn't have an idea of what those players were going to cost and what they were willing to pay them. I think the Leafs have numbers in their heads that make sense for Kadri and Franson and I think the number Franson is throwin out at them is nowhere close to what they are willing to pay.

Franson is only valuable if he's not making a lot of money. I don't think the Leafs view him as a player they want to give more ice time to if they have a choice. I think he's a bottom pairing guy and I think the Leafs see him that way too. Paying him middle pairing money because he's good on the powerplay doesn't make sense. I think Liles is a better all around defenseman.

You're right, looking at capgeek, our bed was made when Clarkson and Bozak got their money.
I believe that trading Phaneuf fell through and now Nonis will have to be creative in order to sign Kadri and Franson and comply for opening day.

Or something might happen like trading Franson for picks and just playing Liles.  It's a mess and perhaps at some point you stop burying all your mistakes and just go with it. 

 

[Kin]

Burke signed that deal, so I'm sure Nonis is not too broken up if he has to buyout Liles. He's correcting the cap problem if anything.

No, he isn't. If he buys Liles out, he's really just pushing the cap problem a couple years down the line.

That seems maybe a bit grandiose considering the way the cap could grow. I agree the risk is there but even at a Liles buyout's biggest hit you're not talking about a crippling number.

 

[Redleaf]

I think the Leafs are way more likely to deal Franson than they are to buy out Liles.

The Leafs knew that they still had RFAs to sign when they signed Bozak and Clarkson. It's hard to believe that they didn't have an idea of what those players were going to cost and what they were willing to pay them. I think the Leafs have numbers in their heads that make sense for Kadri and Franson and I think the number Franson is throwin out at them is nowhere close to what they are willing to pay.

Franson is only valuable if he's not making a lot of money. I don't think the Leafs view him as a player they want to give more ice time to if they have a choice. I think he's a bottom pairing guy and I think the Leafs see him that way too. Paying him middle pairing money because he's good on the powerplay doesn't make sense. I think Liles is a better all around defenseman.

I see the opposite playing out myself. Of course, one of us will be wrong, but I think Franson will get signed and Liles will be shipped or bought out. Doesn't the buy out have to happen soon if that is indeed the plan?

Edit: the buy out would have to take place by Sunday.

 

[cw]

I think they have to buyout Liles. I thought it was a lousy contract at the time they signed him.

It's a somewhat dumb circumstance because the math was apparent some time ago. Liles should have got the compliance buyout and Komisarek the non compliance buyout to save them a bundle in future cap space ($4.875 mil in cap space difference).

They do not have the cap space to sign Kadri & Franson. Barring some other trade (hard to imagine as likely), something has to give. Franson contributed much more to the team last year than Liles so Liles is the odd man out.

I'm a little concerned about Franson as well. He's looking to cash in on his one and only good season - I can't blame him for that. But as he's never played such a role before (ie not Pk'd), he may never duplicate it so there's some real risk there.

At this point, I'm not sure Nonis has much choice because even if they trade Franson, they'll need some bucks to replace him as Liles proved last season, he wasn't up to it.

 

[Hampreacher]

Franson is more valuable as an asset even if youtrade him later due to the prospects developing as NHl ready. Given the leafs powerplay woes with out Franson.

 

[Sudafederov]

They do not have the cap space to sign Kadri & Franson. Barring some other trade (hard to imagine as likely), something has to give.

I could be mistaken, but I believe there is a bit more room than is evident at first glance. I'd quote the complicated CBA, but hopefully this person is correct in their more accessible analysis:

http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/2013/07/new-cba-limits-on-burying-contracts-in-the-minors/

The 2005 CBA contained a loophole though which clubs could make a player?s cap hit ?disappear? by sending the player to the AHL. This was commonly referred to as ?burying? a contract. The 2013 CBA closed this loop-hole.

The new rule, in its simplest form: for all players in the minors, any cap hit above $925K still counts against the cap.

This number goes up every couple of seasons, and is actually defined as that year?s minimum salary plus $375K. This up-coming season, that amounts to $925K. Last season, it was $900K. (See the end of this post, for the complete minimums over the course of the new CBA.)

So, as a practical matter, players making less than $925K don?t count against the cap when they?re in the AHL. Players who make more than $925K continue to count against the cap, less the $925K. If you send down a player whose cap hit is $1MM, his cap hit is reduced to $75K. If you send down Drew Doughty, his cap hit goes down to $6,075,000.

Just something to keep in mind. Obviously they still need to make a move, but they might have a bit more wiggle room.

 

[Andy007]

If they do end up buying out Liles, one has to wonder why he wasn't part of the compliance buy-out, particularly since Komisarek only had one year remaining on his deal.

Personally I like Liles. If he could return to his form pre-concussion he'd be, imo, a better defenceman than Franson anyway. Obviously it's tough to know what version of Liles will emerge next season but I'd rather take the chance he reverts closer to his pre-concussion form and deal Franson while he still has value. The thought of having another problem down the line in a few years like now is not appealing in the least.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Burke signed that deal, so I'm sure Nonis is not too broken up if he has to buyout Liles. He's correcting the cap problem if anything.

The cap problem that he had a large part in creating. The team had the 2nd most amount of cap space before July 5th.

I see that as a little deceiving though. The Leafs probably had the least amount of players signed, while also probably having one of the largest group of youngish players getting 2nd and third contracts after decent seasons.

My comment is more around Burke's signings of Grabo and Liles. Their apparent non-value on the trade market is most about their contracts, than anything in my opinion. The lowered cap being the other main reason and the two reasons kind of go in lock-step.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I see that as a little deceiving though. The Leafs probably had the least amount of players signed, while also probably having one of the largest group of youngish players getting 2nd and third contracts after decent seasons.

That's true, but other than Liles I'd say every other player on the team at that point had a reasonable contract. Phaneuf's debatable but he's even if he is overpaid he's the type of player who you should be able to stomach a slight overpayment for. Having one bad contract on the team shouldn't have handcuffed Nonis.

What did him in was shipping out some of most cap effective players on the team last season (Frattin, Scrivens, MacArthur, Kostka) and overpaying every single player that he signed by $100-$400k (except for Gunnarsson and Colborne). We shrug it off initially, but when it happens on a regular basis that adds up. And of course there's the $500k he traded away to LA when he should have known full well how tight things were going to get.

 

[Britishbulldog]

I see that as a little deceiving though. The Leafs probably had the least amount of players signed, while also probably having one of the largest group of youngish players getting 2nd and third contracts after decent seasons.

That's true, but other than Liles I'd say every other player on the team at that point had a reasonable contract. Phaneuf's debatable but he's even if he is overpaid he's the type of player who you should be able to stomach a slight overpayment for. Having one bad contract on the team shouldn't have handcuffed Nonis.

What did him in was shipping out some of most cap effective players on the team last season (Frattin, Scrivens, MacArthur, Kostka) and overpaying every single player that he signed by $100-$400k (except for Gunnarsson and Colborne). We shrug it off initially, but when it happens on a regular basis that adds up. And of course there's the $500k he traded away to LA when he should have known full well how tight things were going to get.

Yeah, after trying to guess how the Leafs lineup was going to shake down after showing such promise in the playoff I figure all that was needed was a top line center, even if it was an older player as a stop gap and a top pairing dman to help Phaneuf.  Neither happened and Nonis actually got rid of some of the depth the Leafs had on good contracts.

I now have been looking at the Leafs numbers for a few weeks and I can't figure out where Nonis and company's heads are at.  If you look at the breakdown of the salaries based on position then the team looks extremely top heavy with forwards salaries.  Leaving the top 2 lines together from last year and putting McClement with the 2 new guys,  assuming Kadri signs for $3.0 MIL or less you have:

4.25, 4.2, 5.4
5.25, 3.0, 2.8
1.5, 3.375, 5.25

$35.025 MIL tied up in the top 3 lines.
....add $4.5 for the 4th line and press box
....add $4.5 to re-sign Kessel, Kulemin, Bolland and McClement
That's $44 MIL

$6.0 in goalies if Reimer signs for similar dollars as Bernier

$50 MIL and no defense have been accounted for.  Right now Phaneuf and Gunnarson almost take up $10 MIL on their own and although Gunnarsson is good he definitely isn't a top pairing dman in the mould of Chicago's or St Louis' top pairing or what Nashville had.

 

[hap_leaf]

If you look at the breakdown of the salaries based on position then the team looks extremely top heavy with forwards salaries. 

The Leafs are in the middle of the pack in terms of cap % given to forwards: 58.19%. 
http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams

 

[Kessel Run]

Bets on NYI being on Liles NTC list?

I mean, I guess it's likely but considering that they themselves had a pretty good year last year and their frugality has always seemed tied to their crummy situation in Nassau County which has been resolved....I don't know. There are worse places in the world to be a millionaire hockey player than NYC.

Oh for sure. It's not like being dealt to a steerage room on the Titanic anymore.  it won't be that pretty for a while but there is light at the end of the tunnel there.

Hey! The 3rd class rooms were nicer than the 1st class rooms on other ships!

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

What did him in was shipping out some of most cap effective players on the team last season (Frattin, Scrivens, MacArthur, Kostka) and overpaying every single player that he signed by $100-$400k (except for Gunnarsson and Colborne). We shrug it off initially, but when it happens on a regular basis that adds up. And of course there's the $500k he traded away to LA when he should have known full well how tight things were going to get.

He upgraded the players you call depth though and had to spend cap dollars to do that. I was a bit perplexed about the salary retention in the Bernier deal, but we don't know what was going on in negotiations, it could have been the difference in getting the deal done and not.

The Leafs were in good position and I still think they are, they just have to bite the bullet a bit, like every other team in the league (because of the cap going down), but the Leafs are improving, while the teams that look great in the cap department aren't as skilled from what I can see. I also don't think those teams are as far ahead in the building process.

I'd rather have Clarkson, Bernier and Bolland over Frattin, Scrivens, MacArthur and Kostka. Grabovski is in another category, as I maintain he just didn't fit what the Leafs are doing. Dave Poulin mentions it in his interview with Brownscombe;

AB: How do you see the season Grabovski had last year, and the circumstances leading up to his buyout? He took on some tough assignments last season.

DP: He did. He did without question. But we felt as a group that he didn?t fit with what we are doing right now. You look down the middle and you had the continued growth of Nazem Kadri in that position, you had the play of Tyler Bozak, then you had the addition of Dave Bolland and the play of Jay McClement. You?ve essentially got four pieces there that we feel fit what we?re doing and the direction we?re going in, and in that circumstance we didn?t feel Grabo fit.
AB: As the team?s highest paid center at the time who had put up good numbers in the second line role the two seasons previous, why do you think Grabovski never got an extended look beside Kessel?

DP: I think they?ve had looks, but I don?t think the two players fit. It?s interesting because you can look on paper and say, why wouldn?t these two players fit? But the styles wouldn?t necessarily fit.

All and all, I really do believe that Nonis had to take care of the things that Burke didn't seem to agree with, that being Grabovski, Liles, Komisarek. He had to do some things that maybe you don't want to, but I think he made the right moves as hard as they may have been, but he's also not responsible for those contracts. So, that's why I say he's kind of cleaning up some of Burke's moves.

 

[Redleaf]

What did him in was shipping out some of most cap effective players on the team last season (Frattin, Scrivens, MacArthur, Kostka) and overpaying every single player that he signed by $100-$400k (except for Gunnarsson and Colborne). We shrug it off initially, but when it happens on a regular basis that adds up. And of course there's the $500k he traded away to LA when he should have known full well how tight things were going to get.

He upgraded the players you call depth though and had to spend cap dollars to do that. I was a bit perplexed about the salary retention in the Bernier deal, but we don't know what was going on in negotiations, it could have been the difference in getting the deal done and not.

The Leafs were in good position and I still think they are, they just have to bite the bullet a bit, like every other team in the league (because of the cap going down), but the Leafs are improving, while the teams that look great in the cap department aren't as skilled from what I can see. I also don't think those teams are as far ahead in the building process.

I'd rather have Clarkson, Bernier and Bolland over Frattin, Scrivens, MacArthur and Kostka. Grabovski is in another category, as I maintain he just didn't fit what the Leafs are doing. Dave Poulin mentions it in his interview with Brownscombe;

AB: How do you see the season Grabovski had last year, and the circumstances leading up to his buyout? He took on some tough assignments last season.

DP: He did. He did without question. But we felt as a group that he didn?t fit with what we are doing right now. You look down the middle and you had the continued growth of Nazem Kadri in that position, you had the play of Tyler Bozak, then you had the addition of Dave Bolland and the play of Jay McClement. You?ve essentially got four pieces there that we feel fit what we?re doing and the direction we?re going in, and in that circumstance we didn?t feel Grabo fit.
AB: As the team?s highest paid center at the time who had put up good numbers in the second line role the two seasons previous, why do you think Grabovski never got an extended look beside Kessel?

DP: I think they?ve had looks, but I don?t think the two players fit. It?s interesting because you can look on paper and say, why wouldn?t these two players fit? But the styles wouldn?t necessarily fit.

All and all, I really do believe that Nonis had to take care of the things that Burke didn't seem to agree with, that being Grabovski, Liles, Komisarek. He had to do some things that maybe you don't want to, but I think he made the right moves as hard as they may have been, but he's also not responsible for those contracts. So, that's why I say he's kind of cleaning up some of Burke's moves.

Well put.

Btw...I believe today is the deadline for the buy out window on Liles. If he's still a Leaf tomorrow, then they're either keeping him or hoping to deal him in a trade.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'd rather have Clarkson, Bernier and Bolland over Frattin, Scrivens, MacArthur and Kostka.

Maybe. But on a cap team is that first group really worth $7.4mil more (with Fraser included)? And that's not even factoring in the $500k. I think that would be very hard to argue. Especially since they are all 2nd/3rd line forwards/defecemen and 1B goalie. Although I have said all along that I feel Bernier has very high potential. In a cap system you're expected to overpay your stars. You overpay your Kessel's and your Phaneuf's. And in return you have to get some bargains on your mid-level players. Nonis overpaid all of those mid-level players.

All and all, I really do believe that Nonis had to take care of the things that Burke didn't seem to agree with, that being Grabovski, Liles, Komisarek. He had to do some things that maybe you don't want to, but I think he made the right moves as hard as they may have been, but he's also not responsible for those contracts. So, that's why I say he's kind of cleaning up some of Burke's moves.

I don't have a problem with any of that really. I mean, yeah I think that Grabovski should have been kept over Bozak and Liles should have been bought out instead, but that's not what I'm arguing about. Nonis cleared out $10mil in cap space with the compliance buyouts and and still managed to put himself into cap hell. He did that with one bad, $3.875mil, contract on the books. You can't blame Burke for the situation we are in. Nonis cleaned up Burke's mistakes and then made a bunch of his own.