Where to send Liles??

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Maybe. But on a cap team is that first group really worth $7.4mil more (with Fraser included)? And that's not even factoring in the $500k. I think that would be very hard to argue. Especially since they are all 2nd/3rd line forwards/defecemen and 1B goalie. Although I have said all along that I feel Bernier has very high potential. In a cap system you're expected to overpay your stars. You overpay your Kessel's and your Phaneuf's. And in return you have to get some bargains on your mid-level players. Nonis overpaid all of those mid-level players.

I don't know how you improve your team without spending more cap dollars though. I don't think the improvement is as close as you seem to, I think we improved a great deal over the players listed. I mean, sure Frattin may turn out to be a really good player, but those are the types of decisions you make, hoping that it results in a cup contender.

Nonis is in the position that his stars don't need more money until next year, right when the cap is going to go up considerably, so that doesn't factor in IMO.

I don't have a problem with any of that really. I mean, yeah I think that Grabovski should have been kept over Bozak and Liles should have been bought out instead, but that's not what I'm arguing about. Nonis cleared out $10mil in cap space with the compliance buyouts and and still managed to put himself into cap hell. He did that with one bad, $3.875mil, contract on the books. You can't blame Burke for the situation we are in. Nonis cleaned up Burke's mistakes and then made a bunch of his own.

As far as Liles, I think Nonis thought he would be able to trade Liles, much like a few of us did, but I guess with the cap going down, Liles' contract isn't as appealing as I thought. When Liles was signed, I think most of us thought it was a decent deal, although we didn't think that he would come back off that injury such a changed player. I still think he can get back to the consistently good point producer he was, but at this point, he's the odd man out and that has more to do with Carlyle and what he wants, than the player Liles is.

cw pointed out a while ago that this type of cap situation was coming, although I think he made it look a bit more bleak than it really is from where I'm looking. I think it's just the nature of having good players as a result of the team getting better and into a position to contend, look what the Blackhaks have had to do since they won their first cup.

Clarkson's contract was explained by Nonis as part of doing business, Gunnarsson's was decent, Fraser's was a result of, like you said, of Fraser having the Leafs over the proverbial barrel. The only one I think he really overpaid was Bernier, which I still don't know why that happened, based on his experience. What other deals made it a cap hell? They were always going to spend to the cap to keep this group together, while improving the key positions they thought needed specific upgrades.

 

[Redleaf]

I'd rather have Clarkson, Bernier and Bolland over Frattin, Scrivens, MacArthur and Kostka.

Maybe. But on a cap team is that first group really worth $7.4mil more (with Fraser included)? And that's not even factoring in the $500k. I think that would be very hard to argue. Especially since they are all 2nd/3rd line forwards/defecemen and 1B goalie. Although I have said all along that I feel Bernier has very high potential. In a cap system you're expected to overpay your stars. You overpay your Kessel's and your Phaneuf's. And in return you have to get some bargains on your mid-level players. Nonis overpaid all of those mid-level players.

All and all, I really do believe that Nonis had to take care of the things that Burke didn't seem to agree with, that being Grabovski, Liles, Komisarek. He had to do some things that maybe you don't want to, but I think he made the right moves as hard as they may have been, but he's also not responsible for those contracts. So, that's why I say he's kind of cleaning up some of Burke's moves.

I don't have a problem with any of that really. I mean, yeah I think that Grabovski should have been kept over Bozak and Liles should have been bought out instead, but that's not what I'm arguing about. Nonis cleared out $10mil in cap space with the compliance buyouts and and still managed to put himself into cap hell. He did that with one bad, $3.875mil, contract on the books. You can't blame Burke for the situation we are in. Nonis cleaned up Burke's mistakes and then made a bunch of his own.

I guess the only issue with the ideal team are finding good players who are alright being those 'bargain' type guys.

 

[Tigger]

I go back and forth on this, I disagree with some of the moves made more from a preventative/proactive sense, that the management group didn't see this coming and trade some players when they could have last year ( or did and went forward no matter ), however, the Leafs won't be a cup contender next year either and I'm willing to see where Nonis might go to correct some of those mistakes.

If the cap goes up significantly next year and the Leafs can manage to mitigate the cost of losing Liles they should be ok, as of now yeah Kessel will require more money but the lions share of that can come from the buyout space from Armstrong and Tucker. Phaneuf won't take much more or maybe stay even ( shudder, less? ), Bolland, Kulemin and McClement shouldn't drift that far either.

For me the key is no dead space if they can possibly avoid it, they may even be in pretty decent shape cap wise after this season. Paying a premium now is fine as long as they aren't shuffling the mistakes off to the future.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It's clear that we just don't see eye to eye on this. I think Nonis overpaid a bunch of players that didn't really address the two biggest needs on the team. That is a first line centre and a top-4 defenceman. In fact, because of his moves the defence could be even weaker than it was last season if we're forced to move Franson.

But let's look ahead to next season. You're not the only person to suggest that things will be alright next season when the cap goes up. So I decided to look into that and see how things are shaping up.

First we need to clear things up this season of course. Let's assume that Nonis buys out Liles and signs Kadri and Franson to matching $3.25mil deals.

Next, re-sign the key players for next season. Kessel, Phaneuf, Gardiner, and Reimer are the four players that I identified as needing raises. I put Kessel at $7.5mil, I kept Phaneuf at $6.5mil, I put Gardiner at $3.25mil, and Reimer at $2.9mil (same as Bernier).

I put Kadri, Franson, and Gardiner all at $3.25mil. One might get less and another might get more maybe, but in total I think all three will come in just under $10mil. Reimer could get significantly more than $2.9mil if he plays like he did last season, but if Bernier wins the job I think $2.9mil will be fair.

That brings our total cap to $62.02mil with 15 players signed. Let's assume a $70mil cap, that's about $8mil to sign 8 more players. Kulemin, Bolland, McClement, and Fraser would all be UFAs. So we would either need to re-sign them or bring in replacement players. Even if we just plugged in those 3 forwards at their previous cap hits we're at $69.695mil. At that point all we would need to do would be to sign or promote a couple of 6/7 defenceman and 12/13 forwards. But there's obviously not enough cap space for that.

Obviously there's a lot of time between then and now. And there's some things things that Nonis could do to help the situation. If Bernier makes it clear he's the starting goalie we could trade Reimer and bring in a cheaper back-up. Maybe Franson gets dealt and Rielly takes his spot. But keeping this team under the cap isn't going to be a walk in the park just because the salary cap is going up. And you brought up how Chicago had to make difficult cap decisions after they won their Cups. Well, I love this team but we're not Chicago right now. Heck, I still thinking making the playoffs next season is going to be a very difficult goal.

 

[Tigger]

What if the assumption about the cap is wrong? From what I've read the league could be heading into the 4.2 billion + revenue range next year.

 

[Kin]

What if the assumption about the cap is wrong? From what I've read the league could be heading into the 4.2 billion + revenue range next year.

Yeah, I thought I'd read that even with no growth and just pro-rating the revenue this year into an 82 game season then next year's cap would be 5 or so million higher than 70.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

What if the assumption about the cap is wrong? From what I've read the league could be heading into the 4.2 billion + revenue range next year.

Yeah, I thought I'd read that even with no growth and just pro-rating the revenue this year into an 82 game season then next year's cap would be 5 or so million higher than 70.

$70mil is the common figure I've been seeing, but I guess we'll see. Although with a higher cap we'll see players asking for more money than they would have with a $64mil cap. So I suppose it's difficult to speculate on these figures now. Although that's even more of a reason to get Kessel and Phaneuf's deals done now rather than later.

 

[Kin]

That brings our total cap to $62.02mil with 15 players signed. Let's assume a $70mil cap, that's about $8mil to sign 8 more players. Kulemin, Bolland, McClement, and Fraser would all be UFAs. So we would either need to re-sign them or bring in replacement players. Even if we just plugged in those 3 forwards at their previous cap hits we're at $69.695mil. At that point all we would need to do would be to sign or promote a couple of 6/7 defenceman and 12/13 forwards. But there's obviously not enough cap space for that.

Obviously there's a lot of time between then and now. And there's some things things that Nonis could do to help the situation. If Bernier makes it clear he's the starting goalie we could trade Reimer and bring in a cheaper back-up. Maybe Franson gets dealt and Rielly takes his spot. But keeping this team under the cap isn't going to be a walk in the park just because the salary cap is going up. And you brought up how Chicago had to make difficult cap decisions after they won their Cups. Well, I love this team but we're not Chicago right now. Heck, I still thinking making the playoffs next season is going to be a very difficult goal.

But I think you sort of hit on the solution to the problem you pose in the first paragraph here in the second. At some point, and relatively soon, the Leafs have to start looking at spots like Kulemin, Bolland, Franson and Fraser's and asking not "What players are available that can replace them at an equal or lower cap hit" but rather "Who in the system is taking that role".

You know, it's now 4 full seasons since Burke's first draft and so far the list of guys he's drafted who've played a game in the NHL begins and ends with Kadri. If the system doesn't start producing the sort of young, cheap NHL talent that make guys like the guys you're talking about expendable and the rest of the team more affordable within the next two years then there's a significantly larger problem besides fitting under the cap next year. If the talent isn't in the system to push this team to the next level then the issue isn't "How do we fit Kessel and Phaneuf's extensions under the cap" but instead it's whether or not the team needs to blow it up, probably starting with those two guys.

 

[Kin]

$70mil is the common figure I've been seeing, but I guess we'll see. Although with a higher cap we'll see players asking for more money than they would have with a $64mil cap. So I suppose it's difficult to speculate on these figures now. Although that's even more of a reason to get Kessel and Phaneuf's deals done now rather than later.

I don't know how true it is that players are going to tie their salary requests into the cap. This is the first year the cap went down and it didn't seem to me like there were deep discounts on anyone around the league.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

$70mil is the common figure I've been seeing, but I guess we'll see. Although with a higher cap we'll see players asking for more money than they would have with a $64mil cap. So I suppose it's difficult to speculate on these figures now. Although that's even more of a reason to get Kessel and Phaneuf's deals done now rather than later.

I don't know how true it is that players are going to tie their salary requests into the cap. This is the first year the cap went down and it didn't seem to me like there were deep discounts on anyone around the league.

Yeah, that really caught me off guard also. I really thought salaries were going down and I was surprised that they went up in a lot of instances. I think where we will and have been seeing it is, that guys are leaving for Europe already. The squeeze will get bigger in my opinion, I'm even a bit surprised that guys like Gomez got a deal at this point.

 

[bustaheims]

Btw...I believe today is the deadline for the buy out window on Liles. If he's still a Leaf tomorrow, then they're either keeping him or hoping to deal him in a trade.

I'm 99% certain the buyout window actually closed this morning.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Btw...I believe today is the deadline for the buy out window on Liles. If he's still a Leaf tomorrow, then they're either keeping him or hoping to deal him in a trade.

I'm 99% certain the buyout window actually closed this morning.

Closed up tight.  So, does this mean Nonis has a tentative deal in place for Liles?  Is he planning on moving Franson?  Did he sleep in?

 

[bustaheims]

Closed up tight.  So, does this mean Nonis has a tentative deal in place for Liles?  Is he planning on moving Franson?  Did he sleep in?

I'm sure he has a plan. Whether or not it's a good plan or even an achievable plan, I can't say for sure, but, I'm sure there is at least one.

 

[Redleaf]

Btw...I believe today is the deadline for the buy out window on Liles. If he's still a Leaf tomorrow, then they're either keeping him or hoping to deal him in a trade.

I'm 99% certain the buyout window actually closed this morning.

Closed up tight.  So, does this mean Nonis has a tentative deal in place for Liles?  Is he planning on moving Franson?  Did he sleep in?

I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that Nonis is orchestrating a deal for Phaneuf either.

 

[drummond]

Btw...I believe today is the deadline for the buy out window on Liles. If he's still a Leaf tomorrow, then they're either keeping him or hoping to deal him in a trade.

I'm 99% certain the buyout window actually closed this morning.

Closed up tight.  So, does this mean Nonis has a tentative deal in place for Liles?  Is he planning on moving Franson?  Did he sleep in?

I would dismiss the possibility that Nonis is orchestrating a deal for Phaneuf either.

Leafs can not afford to trade Phaneuf, the D would be incredibly weak. Say whatever you want about Dion, but he is a workhorse out there.

 

[KadriFan]

Btw...I believe today is the deadline for the buy out window on Liles. If he's still a Leaf tomorrow, then they're either keeping him or hoping to deal him in a trade.

I'm 99% certain the buyout window actually closed this morning.

Closed up tight.  So, does this mean Nonis has a tentative deal in place for Liles?  Is he planning on moving Franson?  Did he sleep in?

I would dismiss the possibility that Nonis is orchestrating a deal for Phaneuf either.

Leafs can not afford to trade Phaneuf, the D would be incredibly weak. Say whatever you want about Dion, but he is a workhorse out there.

I guess it depends on whether he fits into managements plans for the future. 

 

[jdh1]

Btw...I believe today is the deadline for the buy out window on Liles. If he's still a Leaf tomorrow, then they're either keeping him or hoping to deal him in a trade.

I'm 99% certain the buyout window actually closed this morning.

Closed up tight.  So, does this mean Nonis has a tentative deal in place for Liles?  Is he planning on moving Franson?  Did he sleep in?

I would dismiss the possibility that Nonis is orchestrating a deal for Phaneuf either.

Leafs can not afford to trade Phaneuf, the D would be incredibly weak. Say whatever you want about Dion, but he is a workhorse out there.

I wouldn't be opposed to trading Phaneuf for some value.I think there is enough on defence to fill in for his loss.I am not saying that Gardiner can fill in for him...but he seems to thrive on a lot of work.I love seeing him skate the puck up the ice.

 

[mr grieves]

If you look at the breakdown of the salaries based on position then the team looks extremely top heavy with forwards salaries. 

The Leafs are in the middle of the pack in terms of cap % given to forwards: 58.19%. 
http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams

This looks to be a really nifty source. But, with holes in the top 6 and top 4, it's probably too early for it to be of much use, right?

The other thing is this site only seems to break down salary structure by forwards/ defense/ goalie. I don't know what the OP meant by a "top heavy" salary structure but I don't think forwards were meant by "top." I'd wonder about the difference between your top 6 and bottom 6, etc.

 

[Britishbulldog]

If you look at the breakdown of the salaries based on position then the team looks extremely top heavy with forwards salaries. 

The Leafs are in the middle of the pack in terms of cap % given to forwards: 58.19%. 
http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams

This looks to be a really nifty source. But, with holes in the top 6 and top 4, it's probably too early for it to be of much use, right?

The other thing is this site only seems to break down salary structure by forwards/ defense/ goalie. I don't know what the OP meant by a "top heavy" salary structure but I don't think forwards were meant by "top." I'd wonder about the difference between your top 6 and bottom 6, etc.

What I noticed about the site is that it lists players that have been and will most likely return to LITR which actually won't count against the official cap number of the team.  That skewers the percentages as well.

What I have been concerned with since Burke has been here and it has even escalated more this Spring and Summer is the allocation of money.  When a team is close to the cap limit than theoretically it should basically match their place in the standings.  The only way it appears to beat the system is by having players on ELCs and 2nd contracts that perform as well as comparable veterans.  I think that is what Nik was concerned about with lower 6 players needing to be re-signed to larger contracts when they should be getting replaced by younger (read:cheaper) players in the system.  Toronto doesn't seem to have those players ready from the last 4 drafts that Burke presided over.

Those are basic numbers that I believe can't be manipulated.

 

[mr grieves]

What I have been concerned with since Burke has been here and it has even escalated more this Spring and Summer is the allocation of money.  When a team is close to the cap limit than theoretically it should basically match their place in the standings.  The only way it appears to beat the system is by having players on ELCs and 2nd contracts that perform as well as comparable veterans.  I think that is what Nik was concerned about with lower 6 players needing to be re-signed to larger contracts when they should be getting replaced by younger (read:cheaper) players in the system.  Toronto doesn't seem to have those players ready from the last 4 drafts that Burke presided over.

I don't pretend to know the Marlies all that well, but I have trouble believing at least two of the overpayments -- Orr and Fraser, totaling about $1m over what those roster spots would cost with AHL promotions -- couldn't be replaced internally.