2016 NHL Draft Lottery

[lamajama]

Odds are readily available for 1st but I'd like to know our odds of getting #2 and then #3 before we settle at our eventual #4....

In other words, when we lose #1, how do the odds change for us at 2 then 3....

 

[L K]

Odds are readily available for 1st but I'd like to know our odds of getting #2 and then #3 before we settle at our eventual #4....

In other words, when we lose #1, how do the odds change for us at 2 then 3....

Entirely based on who wins the first/2nd draft.

The lottery just restarts with the balls invalidated from the first lottery.

So the leafs have 200 of 1000 combinations, Edmonton has 135 out of 1000 combinations, and Boston has 10 of 1000 combinations.

If Edmonton wins the first lottery the Leafs chance in the second would be 200/(1000-135) =  23.1%.

If Boston wins the first lottery the Leafs chance in the second would be 200/(1000-10) = 20.2%

They don't actually take out any balls after the first lottery though.  They would do a redraw if they drew Edmonton a second time.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

It'd be somewhat amusing to me if the Leafs won the lottery and then traded down to take someone else.

 

[Bullfrog]

Why do I think that little pile of vile crap will make sure we don't get the first pick, and one of his pet teams do. I can not wait until that guy is done running the NHL.

Because you're irrational?

 

[Tigger]

It'd be somewhat amusing to me if the Leafs won the lottery and then traded down to take someone else.

Yeah, I don't know about that but it wouldn't surprise me if they traded down from 4th, not that it's likely either or anything.

 

[McGarnagle]

It'd be somewhat amusing to me if the Leafs won the lottery and then traded down to take someone else.

Heh, I wonder if there's more possibilities this year. Between Arizona no doubt badly wanting Matthews, the oilers looking for a franchise D man, and the leafs looking to exploit virtually any situation, the draft order could definitely hold a few scenarios.

 

[McGarnagle]

And hey, maybe we're a gas mask bong away from drafting Matthews with the Pens' pick.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

[tweet]726458687355805696[/tweet]

McDavid is begging to be saved.

 

[Tigger]

[tweet]726458687355805696[/tweet]

McDavid is begging to be saved.

Six more years...

 

[L K]

How are we going to be able to afford McDavid - Tavares - Matthews - Nylander up the middle?

 

[Tigger]

How are we going to be able to afford McDavid - Tavares - Matthews - Nylander up the middle?

Support the oil sands?

 

[mr grieves]

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/lottery.html

They have the lottery winning combinations on there now too.

Montreal
Leafs
Winnipeg
Boooooooo lol

I just got:
Edmonton
Vancouver
Boston

 

[Nik]

So would anyone else kind of prefer drafting 4th instead of 3rd? I know that doesn't make a ton of sense as you could draft whoever you take at 4 at 3 if you really wanted to but I feel like drafting #3 means we get Pulijarvi who, while obviously a good prospect, seems to kind of not be exciting anyone right now. Pick 4th and there are all sorts of interesting possibilities.

 

[GatineauLeaf]

So would anyone else kind of prefer drafting 4th instead of 3rd? I know that doesn't make a ton of sense as you could draft whoever you take at 4 at 3 if you really wanted to but I feel like drafting #3 means we get Pulijarvi who, while obviously a good prospect, seems to kind of not be exciting anyone right now. Pick 4th and there are all sorts of interesting possibilities.

Or trade our #3 for #4 or 5 or 6 and another pick!

 

[lamajama]

Why do I think that little pile of vile crap will make sure we don't get the first pick, and one of his pet teams do. I can not wait until that guy is done running the NHL.

Because you're irrational?

Wouldn't you think he would probably prefer the Leafs to
get #1?  A strong Leaf team's revenue would be HUGE
for the NHL.

So that is an irrational thought.

Unlike myself, who understand we have zero, nada, not
in a million years chance of winning this thing and a stone
cold lock-of-the-century result for picking #4.  :'(

 

[Zee]

It'd be somewhat amusing to me if the Leafs won the lottery and then traded down to take someone else.

Heh, I wonder if there's more possibilities this year. Between Arizona no doubt badly wanting Matthews, the oilers looking for a franchise D man, and the leafs looking to exploit virtually any situation, the draft order could definitely hold a few scenarios.

I'd be OK with the Leafs in that position, at least then they have the control of what's going to happen with #1.  If Lamariello and Hunter can come to an agreement over what to do, they could score a big haul in deals with that #1 pick.  I trust the Leafs front office for once.

 

[Bullfrog]

So would anyone else kind of prefer drafting 4th instead of 3rd? I know that doesn't make a ton of sense as you could draft whoever you take at 4 at 3 if you really wanted to but I feel like drafting #3 means we get Pulijarvi who, while obviously a good prospect, seems to kind of not be exciting anyone right now. Pick 4th and there are all sorts of interesting possibilities.

You're right, that doesn't make much sense. 

While going 4th or lower does require a bit more creative thinking, I can never justify picking lower.

 

[Nik]

 
You're right, that doesn't make much sense. 

While going 4th or lower does require a bit more creative thinking, I can never justify picking lower.

Well, the difference is looking at it from a "If the Leafs pick 3rd what will they do?" perspective as opposed to a "If I were running the Leafs, what would I do?" perspective. If the Leafs get the 3rd pick I think they'll do the safe, conservative thing and take the consensus #3 pick. If I had the #3 pick, shenanigans would ensue.

 

[mr grieves]

So would anyone else kind of prefer drafting 4th instead of 3rd? I know that doesn't make a ton of sense as you could draft whoever you take at 4 at 3 if you really wanted to but I feel like drafting #3 means we get Pulijarvi who, while obviously a good prospect, seems to kind of not be exciting anyone right now. Pick 4th and there are all sorts of interesting possibilities.

Going for the consensus top Euro forward who they've been talking about for over a year would be pretty anticlimactic... but what I've read about Pulijarvi -- makes him sound like a good fit with what the Leafs have already got.

Then again, power forwards with good shots would be nice to have. As would top defensive prospects. Siblings of your top star. Etc. Many more fun possibilities to imagine #4, yes.

 

[Nik]

Going for the consensus top Euro forward who they've been talking about for over a year would be pretty anticlimactic... but what I've read about Pulijarvi -- makes him sound like a good fit with what the Leafs have already got.

Although he's not the consensus top Euro forward. That's Patrik Laine right now.

I guess, and this is an unfair comparison I know, but to me it kind of reminds me of the 2008 draft. That draft, everyone thought beforehand, had a clear top 5 and then the big drop-off. That's why Fletcher traded into the top five. So it's like, who would you prefer, the guy in tier one that everyone has agreed they like the least? Or the guy in tier two you like the most?