Re: weird shooting issues for the Leafs; is it a pattern?
I think there are expectations at play where we need to update our definition of the Leafs? identity/play style from the Babcock era. Back then they were run and gun, cheat early and cheat often to get players behind the defense for high-probability rush chances. Statistically it manifested as lots of accumulated xG from a handful of highlight reel plays per game, but also a lot of dangerous plays coming back the other way due to the vertical spread of the 5 players.
Under Keefe, who seems to have really bought into Jack Han?s suggestion to invert the attack pyramid, we play a 1-1-3 NZ forecheck to reverse umbrella incoming attacks. Our offense now is about methodically setting up in the zone and breaking down fully set up defenses through puck and player movement. It results in more contested shots (legs, butts, sticks in the way) even as we work towards shots from dangerous ice.
Our defense, thanks to the automatic F3 support, is near the top of the league. We are accumulating xG through many more chances, but generally less individually dangerous ones relative to a rush style game. This play style is about the aggregate result over a large sample of games. It is still technically a bit early for our scoring stats to be considered stable. The Leafs are literally Matthews regressing to normal shooting percentages (ahem, wrist surgery), from blowing teams out.
