Grabovski re-signs

[AvroArrow]

A little high for my liking.  I would have loved $4.5M, and been real torn on $5M.  I'm definitely of the opinion $5.5M is too much but I guess that's the market.  I wouldn't want to lose him for a difference of $500K either.

Some comparables:

Plekanec makes $5, Krejci makes $5.25, Connolly makes $4.75, Fisher makes $4.2, Ribeiro makes $5, Carter $5.27, Leino $4.5, Dubinsky $4.2, Callahan $4.3, Umberger $4.6, etc etc


Around $5M is the market for the second line center position.  Given that all those contracts were signed previously when the cap was less than $60M (and it's assumed to be around $68M next year) it makes sense.

Nice perspective Erndog.  I'm happy with this signing - would have preferred less, but I'll take Grabovski at 5.5.

I wonder if Carlyle will try him with Kessel and Lupul...

 

[Tigger]

Considering the market, it's a fair deal but I was really hoping Grabs would have taken a bit of a discount to stay. Burke really needa to shed a contract or two this summer though.

With the new CBA expected to lead to a lower cap ceiling,t hat might be difficult. It's going to be an interesting summer in the league this year. Teams will likely still be operating under the current CBA (which expires on Sept 15th), but making moves that they hope will put them in line with the next CBA, so, a lot of teams will be guessing at what the new ceiling will be, setting internal caps that may be significantly lower than the actual cap, etc. That being said, a new CBA with a lower ceiling will likely include a buy-out period similar to the introduction period of the previous CBA, so, when it's all said and done, the issue could really be moot.

Well yes and no, there will be a floating cap during the summer that actually increases before the drop, I think it was Lebrun saying it should go up to 68/69 and they're still allowed to go 10% over that too.

 

[Champ Kind]

Considering the market, it's a fair deal but I was really hoping Grabs would have taken a bit of a discount to stay. Burke really needa to shed a contract or two this summer though.

I think at $5.5, though, he sort of did give a bit of a discount.  I don't think there's much argument that he would have likely received more on the open market this summer.

 

[Bonsixx]

Still not sure how I feel about this. I really like Grabbo and think he's one of the most "heart" players on the roster. He's also one of the most skilled players on the roster, but he's streaky as hell. If he could develop more consistency offensively, 5.5 would be a great deal. As it stands, it's probably an overpayment when I think most assumed a discount would be possible.

He's also a guy who absorbs a great deal of punishment. Hopefully his game doesn't fall off a cliff in a couple of years like another little wrecking ball the Leafs used to employ -- and still pay.

 

[Peter D.]

I think at $5.5, though, he sort of did give a bit of a discount.  I don't think there's much argument that he would have likely received more on the open market this summer.

I thought considering Grabovski a $5M player was a bit of a stretch.  If he hit the open market and were to receive upwards of $6M, I would have thought it was pure lunacy. 

 

[cw]

That being said, a new CBA with a lower ceiling will likely include a buy-out period similar to the introduction period of the previous CBA, so, when it's all said and done, the issue could really be moot.

I hope some form of buyout happens like the last time but I'm not nearly as confident it will because I'm sure Bettman warned GMs before and they knew, like the rest of us, that a drop in the cap was likely. So GMs can't cry the blues nearly as much as they did in '05. As well, the drop in the cap will be a few % points - nothing like the drop in payroll the big market teams experienced in '05 when making the transition from the old CBA. This CBA is more like an adjustment rather than anything nearly as dramatic as '05 when that buyout had to be implemented to allow teams to conform to the bigger adjustment.

 

[bustaheims]

Well yes and no, there will be a floating cap during the summer that actually increases before the drop, I think it was Lebrun saying it should go up to 68/69 and they're still allowed to go 10% over that too.

They're allowed to, but a lot of teams won't, because they'll likely have to be in-line with the new CBA by the time the season starts.

 

[ZBBM]

I fear this may prevent the team from being able to add a potential #1 centre that it desperately needs.  :-\

Yep. They're pretty well capped out for next season with most of this roster signed.
http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=4
(showing only a 22 man roster)

And the cap is likely to go down some with the new CBA.

They have six guys to replace/re-sign and less than $7.5 mil to do it (when the cap falls).

2013-14 is when Burke will be in a position to really change to roster with UFAs. That 2013 UFA crop is looking better than usual.

Connolly, Lombardi and Komisarek need to be punted off the team's payroll somehow for next season.  That's $12.75M on the cap right there.

But if we don't think they're worth their contract dough, why would anyone want to trade for them?

So maybe a buyout frees up a little space but with the expected drop in the cap and a UFA market that isn't that hot, it's pretty tough. They won't land Parise or a top UFA unless they do something like that - if they can afford to do that under the cap.

Burke's roster is hamstrung some next season by paying too much for what he got.

Unless MLSE gave him the green light to, if need be, "Finger" Connolly & Lombardi (I assume they do not have NMCs).

I have to assume that Burke has a backup plan to escape cap gridlock.

Other than the price, it's a good signing.  Grabs is just the type of player this team needs more of.

 

[AvroArrow]

Still not sure how I feel about this. I really like Grabbo and think he's one of the most "heart" players on the roster. He's also one of the most skilled players on the roster, but he's streaky as hell. If he could develop more consistency offensively, 5.5 would be a great deal. As it stands, it's probably an overpayment when I think most assumed a discount would be possible.

He's also a guy who absorbs a great deal of punishment. Hopefully his game doesn't fall off a cliff in a couple of years like another little wrecking ball the Leafs used to employ -- and still pay.

In fairness, though, one of his wingers dropped his production by about 30%, while his other winger dropped off the map (offensively).  So, the fact that he's still on pace to almost hit last years numbers should be a credit to him.

 

[Zee]

Still not sure how I feel about this. I really like Grabbo and think he's one of the most "heart" players on the roster. He's also one of the most skilled players on the roster, but he's streaky as hell. If he could develop more consistency offensively, 5.5 would be a great deal. As it stands, it's probably an overpayment when I think most assumed a discount would be possible.

He's also a guy who absorbs a great deal of punishment. Hopefully his game doesn't fall off a cliff in a couple of years like another little wrecking ball the Leafs used to employ -- and still pay.

In fairness, though, one of his wingers dropped his production by about 30%, while his other winger dropped off the map (offensively).  So, the fact that he's still on pace to almost hit last years numbers should be a credit to him.

Can we cut his winger's salary by 30% then?

 

[Corn Flake]

A little high for my liking.  I would have loved $4.5M, and been real torn on $5M.  I'm definitely of the opinion $5.5M is too much but I guess that's the market.  I wouldn't want to lose him for a difference of $500K either.

Some comparables:

Plekanec makes $5, Krejci makes $5.25, Connolly makes $4.75, Fisher makes $4.2, Ribeiro makes $5, Carter $5.27, Leino $4.5, Dubinsky $4.2, Callahan $4.3, Umberger $4.6, etc etc


Around $5M is the market for the second line center position.  Given that all those contracts were signed previously when the cap was less than $60M (and it's assumed to be around $68M next year) it makes sense.

If you factor in the cap inflation over time since some of those deals were done, its in line with them. Plekanec and Ribiero are probably the two closest comparisons from a player/position/production standpoint.. and I think Grabbo is better than both in many different ways.

 

[bustaheims]

TSNBobMcKenzie: Grabovski agreed to terms with TOR prior to trade deadline, but contract wasn't signed until after. He was originally seeking 7 year deal.

 

[bustaheims]

mirtle: Grabovski's deal is market value for a guy heading to UFA - it's a lot, but UFAs get a lot. And centre is wasteland for UFAs this year.

 

[Tigger]

Well yes and no, there will be a floating cap during the summer that actually increases before the drop, I think it was Lebrun saying it should go up to 68/69 and they're still allowed to go 10% over that too.

They're allowed to, but a lot of teams won't, because they'll likely have to be in-line with the new CBA by the time the season starts.

Well this is why I'm asking about a rollback too, should player share drop.

The point for Toronto would be that they have flexibility to add contracts, if there's a buyout period ( which seems likely to me now, I wasn't sure about it before ) then that would be the time to bite the bullet and flip over the talent.

 

[Screwball]

Can we cut his winger's salary by 30% then?

Lance Hornby ‏ @sunhornby
The Leafs might have over-paid with Grabo, but they'll make it up with Gary Greenstin's other client, the slumping RFA Nikolai Kulemin.

 

[Champ Kind]

I think at $5.5, though, he sort of did give a bit of a discount.  I don't think there's much argument that he would have likely received more on the open market this summer.

I thought considering Grabovski a $5M player was a bit of a stretch.  If he hit the open market and were to receive upwards of $6M, I would have thought it was pure lunacy.

But look at Ville Leino and Thomas Fleichsmann from last year's UFA group.  It was - and is - crazy, but likely to repeat itself.

 

[Screwball]

mirtle: Grabovski's deal is market value for a guy heading to UFA - it's a lot, but UFAs get a lot. And centre is wasteland for UFAs this year.

Olli Jokinen is now the top centre on the market.  I'll take Grabovski.

 

[Corn Flake]

I don't see how they are capped out for next season.  $56 mil on 17 players without even moving out one of the uglier contracts (Lombardi or Connolly for sure have to go, maybe/hopefully both) isn't that horrible.  Teams sure don't seem to be assuming the cap is going down next year. 

 

[bustaheims]

Well this is why I'm asking about a rollback too, should player share drop.

The point for Toronto would be that they have flexibility to add contracts, if there's a buyout period ( which seems likely to me now, I wasn't sure about it before ) then that would be the time to bite the bullet and flip over the talent.

My guess is a rollback and a buyout period is unlikely - it will be one or the other, and, my guess is teams will push for the buyout instead.

 

[Zee]

Can we cut his winger's salary by 30% then?

Lance Hornby ‏ @sunhornby
The Leafs might have over-paid with Grabo, but they'll make it up with Gary Greenstin's other client, the slumping RFA Nikolai Kulemin.

Kulemin is probably thrilled by that.  "Hey Grabbo, you buying lunch again today?"