Grabovski re-signs

[Screwball]

Wow, that's quite a pay raise. Is he even on pace to increase his numbers? Why would Burke do this, unless he really feels that he won't be able to find another, better center?

He's on pace for 25 Goals, 32 Assists total of 57.

Last year was 29 + 29 for 59.

Factor in the slow start, and he's doing very well.  I'm glad Grabovski is going to be around - and I'm not going to cry about $500,000.  If that's what it took to get him in Blue & White next year - so be it.

 

[Mikhail Bloodnovsky]

Wow, that's an overpayment if I ever saw one. You really are not setting yourself up well when Lupul's and Kessel's contracts expire.

Lupul's and Kessel's next contracts will be signed under a different CBA, which could drastically alter things. On top of that, prior to this season, Grabovski had set career highs that surpassed all of Lupul's and weren't significantly lower than Kessel's. Teams would have given him $6M+ this summer, as he would have been, by a significant margin, the best UFA centre available.

The guy averaged 47 pts last three seasons. Unless he gets on fire he won't break 60 pts again.  He never has yet. If such a player is worth 6 million as UFA (around 10% cap hit !!!) then you simply walk away.

He won't reach 60 probably due to missing some games, but his 82 game pace this season is for 62.5 pts - an improvement on last season.  Last season, that would have been good for around 40th in league scoring, and 20th among centers.

You are assuming those missing games would translate into points which is silly. He recently scored 2 goals, his first 2 in 15 games. He is known to get cold for long stretches.

No, I'm assuming based on the pace he has scored this season already that it will continue and he will end up with around 62 points.

Obviously it is not guaranteed, that's why it is a projection.

Projections are not facts. Kessel was on pace for over 100 pts for most of the season.

 

[Champ Kind]

Wow, that's an overpayment if I ever saw one. You really are not setting yourself up well when Lupul's and Kessel's contracts expire.

Lupul's and Kessel's next contracts will be signed under a different CBA, which could drastically alter things. On top of that, prior to this season, Grabovski had set career highs that surpassed all of Lupul's and weren't significantly lower than Kessel's. Teams would have given him $6M+ this summer, as he would have been, by a significant margin, the best UFA centre available.

The guy averaged 47 pts last three seasons. Unless he gets on fire he won't break 60 pts again.  He never has yet. If such a player is worth 6 million as UFA (around 10% cap hit !!!) then you simply walk away.

He won't reach 60 probably due to missing some games, but his 82 game pace this season is for 62.5 pts - an improvement on last season.  Last season, that would have been good for around 40th in league scoring, and 20th among centers.

You are assuming those missing games would translate into points which is silly. He recently scored 2 goals, his first 2 in 15 games. He is known to get cold for long stretches.

But by your same logic you're assuming those missed games wouldn't have translated into multi-point efforts.  I know you're a constant 'cup half-empty' type of guy, but come'on, this comment is bottom of the barrel.

 

[bustaheims]

Kessel's point totals have been going up each year and he's already been ahead of Grabovski.  I'll give you Lupul but he comes anywhere CLOSE to this year and he's getting $6+, Kessel will get $7 for sure as your top line winger and #1 goal scorer.  Burke should have let Grabovski walk at this price.

THere are only about a dozen players with a $7M+ cap hit - almost all of which have a superior track record to Kessel. Unless he can show this season's point per game pace isn't an aberration, he'll be in the $6M-$6.5M salary range, and the contract Grabovski just signed does absolutely nothing to change that.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Projections are not facts. Kessel was on pace for over 100 pts for most of the season.

That is why we don't look at Kessel after 20 games and say anything concrete about it.

That's why with 18 games left in the season, you can make a projection with a little more certainty.  Nowhere did I say it was a fact.

 

[Screwball]

Does anyone feel that this contract makes Grabovski a challenge to move?  I'm not suggesting I would want him to be traded - but would this hurt his value in a trade for a 1st line centre down the road?

 

[Champ Kind]

Silly half-baked assumptions disguised as analysis aside, the LEafs had to sign Grabovski.  He was certainly negotiating from a position of strength.  Burke was hamstrung: trade him at the deadline and there goes your playoff chances.  Don't sign him and he walks with no reasonable replacement in sight.  $5.5 seems too much to me, too, but I think there's reason to be optimistic that his numbers and overall game are on the upswing, making this - potentially! - a better looking deal in the future.

 

[Tigger]

The guy averaged 47 pts last three seasons. Unless he gets on fire he won't break 60 pts again.  He never has yet. If such a player is worth 6 million as UFA (around 10% cap hit !!!) then you simply walk away.

Three 20+ goal, 45+ point seasons in the last 4. With the way the cap has gone up, that's what players with that type of production down the middle are paid. He's also one of the most defensively responsible forwards on the roster. I know you don't like the guy, but, well, you're so very wrong here.

You are wrong, I like Grabovski's game a lot but not at this  salary.

No, you're wrong and if you like his game then you should accept that's the cost of doing business with a player on the verge of unrestricted free agency, who were the Leafs going to replace him with?

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I'm glad Grabovski is going to be around - and I'm not going to cry about $500,000.  If that's what it took to get him in Blue & White next year - so be it.

Yeah, like I said above, I hope he continues his contributions. I'm less worried about him than say other players, but he did max out I think. Good for him I guess.

 

[cw]

I fear this may prevent the team from being able to add a potential #1 centre that it desperately needs.  :-\

Yep. They're pretty well capped out for next season with most of this roster signed.
http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=4
(showing only a 22 man roster)

And the cap is likely to go down some with the new CBA.

They have six guys to replace/re-sign and less than $7.5 mil to do it (when the cap falls).

2013-14 is when Burke will be in a position to really change to roster with UFAs. That 2013 UFA crop is looking better than usual.

 

[Zee]

Silly half-baked assumptions disguised as analysis aside, the LEafs had to sign Grabovski.  He was certainly negotiating from a position of strength.  Burke was hamstrung: trade him at the deadline and there goes your playoff chances.  Don't sign him and he walks with no reasonable replacement in sight.  $5.5 seems too much to me, too, but I think there's reason to be optimistic that his numbers and overall game are on the upswing, making this - potentially! - a better looking deal in the future.

Let's hope he's on the upswing, this deal could look really bad in 2 years if he drops off.  At 28, settled into Toronto with a wife and kids I hope he's not getting into that Muskoka clubhouse mentality that we've seen from Leafs players in the past.

 

[bustaheims]

Does anyone feel that this contract makes Grabovski a challenge to move?  I'm not suggesting I would want him to be traded - but would this hurt his value in a trade for a 1st line centre down the road?

Doubtful. He's pretty much fairly priced for a player of his level of production, talent and position. He's not signed to a mega-term deal either.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Hopefully this gives Burke the impetus to find a new home for Komisarek.

 

[Zee]

I fear this may prevent the team from being able to add a potential #1 centre that it desperately needs.  :-\

Yep. They're pretty well capped out for next season with most of this roster signed.
http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=4
(showing only a 22 man roster)

And the cap is likely to go down some with the new CBA.

They have six guys to replace/re-sign and less than $7.5 mil to do it (when the cap falls).

2013-14 is when Burke will be in a position to really change to roster with UFAs. That 2013 UFA crop is looking better than usual.

Connolly, Lombardi and Komisarek need to be punted off the team's payroll somehow for next season.  That's $12.75M on the cap right there.

Edit, Armstrong too, $15.75M

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Considering the market, it's a fair deal but I was really hoping Grabs would have taken a bit of a discount to stay. Burke really needa to shed a contract or two this summer though.

 

[Tigger]

They have six guys to replace/re-sign and less than $7.5 mil to do it (when the cap falls).

I've read that the interim cap should go up to 68/69 mil this summer but I'd like to know if there will be a corresponding contract rollback if/when player share/cap ceiling drops in the next CBA.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Considering the market, it's a fair deal but I was really hoping Grabs would have taken a bit of a discount to stay. Burke really needa to shed a contract or two this summer though.

Think a hometown boy from Tronna would've?

 

[Screwball]

All of the talk on twitter is suggesting the Leafs gave a bit extra money to stay at 5 years, where Grabovski's camp wanted 7-8 years.  I am happier at 5.5 for 5 years, instead of 5 for 7 or 8.

 

[bustaheims]

Considering the market, it's a fair deal but I was really hoping Grabs would have taken a bit of a discount to stay. Burke really needa to shed a contract or two this summer though.

With the new CBA expected to lead to a lower cap ceiling,t hat might be difficult. It's going to be an interesting summer in the league this year. Teams will likely still be operating under the current CBA (which expires on Sept 15th), but making moves that they hope will put them in line with the next CBA, so, a lot of teams will be guessing at what the new ceiling will be, setting internal caps that may be significantly lower than the actual cap, etc. That being said, a new CBA with a lower ceiling will likely include a buy-out period similar to the introduction period of the previous CBA, so, when it's all said and done, the issue could really be moot.

 

[cw]

I fear this may prevent the team from being able to add a potential #1 centre that it desperately needs.  :-\

Yep. They're pretty well capped out for next season with most of this roster signed.
http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=4
(showing only a 22 man roster)

And the cap is likely to go down some with the new CBA.

They have six guys to replace/re-sign and less than $7.5 mil to do it (when the cap falls).

2013-14 is when Burke will be in a position to really change to roster with UFAs. That 2013 UFA crop is looking better than usual.

Connolly, Lombardi and Komisarek need to be punted off the team's payroll somehow for next season.  That's $12.75M on the cap right there.

But if we don't think they're worth their contract dough, why would anyone want to trade for them?

So maybe a buyout frees up a little space but with the expected drop in the cap and a UFA market that isn't that hot, it's pretty tough. They won't land Parise or a top UFA unless they do something like that - if they can afford to do that under the cap.

Burke's roster is hamstrung some next season by paying too much for what he got.